Put
SHORT SPY - Resistance with Heavy VolumeYou can sell short S&P 500 ETFs like the S&P 500 Index (SPY). But this strategy can be risky, since losses on short positions in stocks, ETFs, or stock index futures are potentially unlimited, and may be subject to margin calls. However, there are times when a bearish bet against a benchmark stock index, such as the S&P 500, is appropriate. Buying Puts is one option, get it! also otm put calendar debit spreads may be worth watching.
Rising Wedge on BTC, Weakening RSI - ShortRising Wedge chart pattern on Bitcoin.
Bearish divergences.
Artificial intelligence short.
Eve & Adam Double Bottom confirmation on Costco ($COST)Earlier this month, Costco made confirmation of an Eve & Adam Double Bottom chart pattern as it began seeing daily closes above the mid range between lows. This pattern indicates a fairly high probability (about 88%) of a bullish reversal relative to the sell off which from the recent all-time high (571.49) achieved on December 29th, 2021.
Today, the price is within 10 points of the all-time high. I'll be looking over the coming weeks to see what happens next, and for possible positions. From here, I see one of two likely outcomes over the near term:
A) COST breaks out above the previous high and likely has a forcible move to the upside, or...
B) COST gets rejected from the current levels in the near term and has a pullback to somewhere around $520
In the case of A , I'll be looking to short either with a PUT spread, or potentially straight up long PUTs - which have a greater risk/reward but are enticing considering the macro picture of the broader market/economy as a whole. In the case of B , I'd shop for a long position with some kind of CALL spread.
The statistics indicate that track B has about a 2/3 chance of playing out. This could be even more advantageous because it could potentially offer both decent long and short opportunities over the next few months. We'll have to see where the chips fall.
SPY PRICE TARGET OF 431 - MARCH 3SPY is currently in a larger, but similar pattern to the one it completed about two weeks ago. It appears like a slanted W, and is caused by short sellers taking profit, but bulls not having enough momentum to create a higher high.
Just like the previous (yellow) pattern, price did complete a very slight higher high (0.5% both times) and should now reject. The On Balance Volume indicator is also showing the start of a down trend in volume, another possible sign.
I will be looking out for put opportunities tomorrow, March 3rd.
NVDA PRICE TARGET OF 232 - TOMORROW, MARCH 3NVDA slowly creeped up on Wednesday, March 2nd, with little volume (a sign of weak momentum) and closed the day with an impressive selloff - leaving price below the 15m 9ema.
NVDA has two options tomorrow the way I see it.
The first and most likely, is price drops to 232 and possibly even tests 226. This is will depend largely on the open tomorrow, and whether or not price stays below the 15m 9ema. This is backed by the the up trend being broken and the On Balance Volume indicator showing a steep decline.
The second and least likely, is price continues to creep up, retesting the upper trendline region of 250/252 - although I see it being very difficult for bulls to find the momentum to break through these strong resistances.
Of course, these analysis are becoming less reliable as the situation in Ukraine and Russia unfolds and updates.
BEARISH on QQQ todayI BOUGHT A PUT OPTION on #QQQ WITH A $349 STRIKE PRICE AND 3/4 EXPIRY...ALREADY IN THE MONEY... HERE'S WHY I ENTERED THE TRADE...
#QQQ opened higher than yesterday's market close. However, I believe this is a bull trap. Price is pushing against major trendline resistance and the stochastic indicator on 1HR and 4HR charts reflects QQQ in overbought territory.
My theory is that there is way too much bearish news in the marketplace for tech stocks to break resistance and go on a major run.
Do you agree or disagree? Let me know in the comments!
FEDEX PRICE TARGET 186 - END OF MARCHAfter potentially retesting 227, I see FEDEX approaching the bottom of this wedge (and a soft channel), and falling through - causing the price to reach 190/ 185 by the end of March or early April.
My Thoughts on Tommorow's Expiry17250-17260 is an important zone in nifty. Expected a small gap up opening or it can be even flat.as tommorow is expiry and if nifty breaches the levels downside in 2nd half then it is a sure shot fall of 50-60 points.
bull put spy ( the bull of the puts)sell put 450
buy put 449
rischio 65
max profit 35
scadenza 11 febbraio 2022
Tesla Major Bubble?Tesla has absolutely exploded in value especially since March 2020, which we believe was the beginning of a massive equity bubble. Tesla began trading around $40-80 range for over 6-years.
The vehicles they produce now, they produced in 2017. The Tesla Battery and Tesla Solar Roof were all known back then as they are now. Tesla has not announced anything that should put their stock price at over $900. We know why the stock rallied to $1200, and that was solely the Fed.
Perhaps most shocking is Tesla's P/E ratio which is now over 100X their earnings. This is extreme, and it screams asset bubble. Not even Toyota which is the worlds largest car manufacturer which produces both electric and gasoline vehicles has a P/E of less than 10.
So where do we stand?
We see equities going into a bear market. The FOMC of 1-26-2022 confirmed this when the Fed announced they are continuing their plans for tapering, raising rates, and shrinking their balance sheet. This will adversely affect the stock market and bring equities below a 15% correction, into a bear market.
Key Factors
Buying Volume Weak
MACD Turning Bearish
P/E Ratio: Extremely Overvalued.
Fed Tapering, Raising Rates, and Shrinking Balance Sheet.
50MA is 1/3rd Current Value
100MA is $180 Range
With the biggest buying of equities calling it quits and essentially "selling" this is a stock that I would get out of the way, short but do not expect a continued rally.
Trade idea on Walmart - WMTJust as an idea: Cash secured put on Walmart, with a strike price of $134 (delta 23) and an expiry of Feb. 18, 2022. Trade would to be closed on Feb. 16, 2022, 1 day before the quarterly results, which will be published on Feb. 17, 2022, before market opening. The $134-$135 area has successfully acted as support four times over 1 year. Whether it will do it another time is of course uncertain! The additional purchase of the cheaper put with strike price 115$ reduces the margin and creates a bull put spread. This trade idea is one of the 222 trade ideas from my book "The Stock Market Year 2022: Which stocks go up and when?"
Disclaimer:
This trade idea is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities or financial instruments. Investment in securities and financial instruments (especially options) are generally associated with risks, up to total loss of the invested capital and above. I am not a financial advisor. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
QQQ Put Credit Spread - 10% RoM As the title says, simple put credit spread, was enterred at noon today when we were green. THe position is currently being tested to the downside. I debated turning this into an IC as well just like the other trades from today, but I feel that QQQ would be the one to turn around the quickest and I do not want to end up in a scenario where my call side gets blown out.
500 BP used - 0.58 credit recieved.
TWTR Short!As you all know, TWTR has been in a pretty steep down trend for about the last 6 month. Nothing right now is really telling me a reversal is coming, especially with the way the entire market has been preforming in 2022. However, I don't like trading based off trends alone. So, I have identified a continuation pattern with the bearish rising wedge above. One of my favorite patterns to trade but remember the importance of setting entry, targets, and stop losses!!
Good luck!
Not advice, just speculation (:
DIA 305/300 Feb 18 Put Credit SpreadThis is an after the fact trade meaning that I made the trade today and it closed today as well. Unfortunately I did not have time to post at entry.
Entry: 0.50 Credit
Exit: 0.25 Debit
50% Profit in a day. Ill take it!
Nifty Options Important Levels Call And PutImportant level for 20/01/2022
buy CE Above the Buy line
Buy PE below the sell line
May open lower today
TLT Call Credit Spread 149/152 call credit spread - Filled for 0.36 - >10% Return on Margin
I believe that the 20 years will continue downwards with rate hikes. As such I have setup this call spread to take advantage of the downward move. This position was opened on Jan 11th but I just got around to posting. See blue vert line for entry date Candle.
Additional premium was collected due to selling on a up day, entry now can be had for a similar credit if not more.
XLE 55/53 Put Credit SpreadOpened for a 0.25 Credit
XLE is making a strong move upwards, this filled on the afternoon pullback. If this pulls back in the next few days I will add the call side to turn this into a IC. This will provide me delta neutrality and allow me to play the range from 55-60.
SPY looks bearish If price does not hold the box then as per my analysis and calculations and on Monday if I do see my favorite candles burning then $458 coming for sure.
Not bullish as if price even holds and goes up we have magnetic resistances at $470 & $472.
BEARISH
210/208 IWM Put Credit SpreadIWM is one of my favourites due to its range in the last year. I have played this range many times with credit spreads and Condors.
Trade setup:
Simple Put Credit Spread here opened for a 0.205 credit. Goal with these trades is to be a minimum of 10% RoM and no longer than 30 days.
Entry Criteria:
1. Red day, for increased premiums
2. Trading within a range (clear)
3. Short put is far enough away (see multiple support points lower)
4. Credit received meets RoM (Return on Margin) criteria.
Whispers from Options - BTCWe observe weakness/Bears dominating BTC market recently. Options Sentiment Indicator is giving mixed signals (overall we see bullish sentiment from Options traders but more volume is within PUT options still).
4 Virgin VPOCs are awaiting retest and are located above current price in comparison to 1 VPOC below current price - Bullish pressure
area of 46000 is major/key level, worth observing
from Options OrderBook of contracts expiring in 26 days (28th January 2022) - there are no strong resistance levels (!!) - Bullish pressure. However major support levels (a lot of CALL orders awaiting) are relatively low - 35,36 k
on H4 we see multiple Demand Signals coming from VSA Scanner software near 46 000 level
Strategy & Analysis with Options Tool suite kitToday I would like to introduce you all to process of analysis step by step instruments with usage of Options Toolkit Suite. I wrote in my earlier posts what edge can give us data obtained from Options Market. So now let's jump into details and have step-by-step detailed guide. Firstly we need chart layout split to 3, as on three different timeframes we will perform analysis and monitoring for potential trade opportunities.
Process follows:
All starts on D1 timeframe looking for key levels - where we can check Eagle-eye view perspective. Here most important is Options Flow Sentiment indicator (at the bottom) where we look for blue background - it means equal Volume on CALL and PUT options aka Balance on market is set. From those moments in time we take close of the candle/bar - and this is our significant S/R Level. If there is level too close to another one, I skip drawing it just not to make chart too noisy.
Continue on D1 timeframe checking Options flow Sentiment - also looking into sentiment indicator, I check firstly for green/red background. This is self-explanatory showing advantage of Bears or Bulls camps respectively. Then I am looking where is more money on Options flow put - if green line is above red line, it means volume of CALL Options is respectively bigger than PUT ones (aka Options traders put more money on Bullish move). In reverse works the situation for Bears, where red line is above green one.
Check for Virgin VPOCs on M30 - I am looking for untested next day VPOC levels. Those levels are always retested by market = working like a magnet. The only question is when it will happen. It's convenient to know if multiple levels are below/above current price level in order to know the balance/pressure on the market. Also for Intraday Trading, if price passes one of Gamma Levels near VPOC, we can try to trade a move with target on Virgin VPOC.
Mark Demand/Supply Zone on M30 - When we see multiple Bullish/Bearish candles in row so in other words strong impulse on market, I am looking where this move began. When I identify it, first reverse candle before this impulse sets range of Zone. Ok so jumping to example: in case of strong Bullish impulse, in the place where it started I am searching for last Bearish candle before start of this impulse. This candle's High and Low are marking range of the zone. After setting up zone, I am waiting for First Retest of this Zone . In case of Demand Zone (bullish impulse) I play in case of retest Long, in case of Supply Zone (bearish impulse), I play in case of retest Short. Very often we also can observe confluence, where within Zone or in close neighbourhood we will also have present one of Gamma levels. In case of Zone fail during 1st retest, this is also major signal but in direction of breakthrough zone.
Intraday Setups on M15 - Gamma Levels are marking key levels for observation. In general breaking through Gamma level is a signal for potential trade with target on next Gamma Level. Very rarely are passed levels Extreme Low and Extreme High of the Day which are setting typical maximum expected range of the day. Breakthrough Gamma -1/+1 is a signal of anomaly and typical for Trend Day. So if this level won't hold, then I play in direction of breakthrough. Another setup is bounce from Gamma -/+ 0.5 which is often very strong Intraday Level. In case of observed bounce back, target of the trade is Pivot (mid between Gamma -0.25 and +0.25).
Additional confluence factors - I am looking not for quantity, but for quality in case of trades - that's why I take opportunities which are having in common more factors aligned in direction of trade that I plan to take. Therefore when Gamma Level is passed and I have relatively close Virgin VPOC is one additional example. Another one would be Gamma level within or in close neighbourhood of Demand/Supply Zone. Last but not least - VSA Scanner Signals. When I see before Gamma level Demand (signals below candle/bar) or Supply (signals above candle/bar), it can add me additional confluence factor or sometimes push me to avoid taking this particular trade - when I expect Bullish move but I see instead Supply signals.
