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Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market. This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point. We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market). We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
EUREX:FDAX1!
by skyline-trader
2
Options flow are whispering on BTCThe Options Market can inform well in advance about movements that are yet to happen in futures contracts. Looking at the Options with an Exercise Date (expiry) in 22 days at the time of writing the analysis, the conclusions are quite loud and clear: 50,000 - Put Wall level, that is support with 2 times more capital than the other levels 60,000 - Call Wall level -> resistance 65,000 and 70,000 - successive resistance levels We also see some Virgin VPOC points from the past, which only adds strength and confidence to the Bitcoin bullish prediction. All data and levels are based on BTC quotes from CME. I am puzzled by a very large capital located at the level of 50k $ - someone really cares to defend this level at all costs. There is still time for it, so it's worth watching how the situation develops;)
CME:BTC1!Long
by skyline-trader
2
Options flow predicting moves on Derivatives (Futures)Options have been and are an important instrument on the financial market for a trader trading Intraday Futures. Therefore, while exploring the mechanics of the option market over the last several months, as a result of work, indicators were created that load data from Quandl and then look for patterns that may herald a change of direction on the derivative market - in this case Futures Contracts. There are two main types of Options: CALL - allow their owner to buy a given product in the future at a predetermined price (Strike Price) PUT - allow you to sell this product at a predetermined price (Strike Price) By observing the market volumes of both types of Options, we can observe the sentiment of investors. The key factors are which volume (call or put) prevail in the volume and the dynamics of the volume - what is the trend on volume, whether the difference between them increases or decreases. In addition, the Put / Call Ratio analysis allows you to confirm or negate the signals from the Option volume. The Ratio indicator behaves inversely to the price movement - in the case of a bearish sentiment, we expect the ratio to increase, and in the case of bullish sentiment - the indicator should decrease. If the Ratio follows the price in the same direction, it is an anomaly. Of course, the mere observation of the Option volumes and the Put / Call ratio is not sufficient, as the Options Market is a much more complicated activity. It is worth including in the calculations such factors as Expiration Date, Bonus Amount, option type (In the Money, Out of Money or At the Money). Not each of the factors is equally important, therefore the key is additionally the appropriate selection of the weighting factors. For this purpose, due to the multitude of data, it is worth using Machine Learning, which I also do by saving the resulting data in a dataset in Quandl and displaying the data in TradingView using Pine Script. Below are some additional examples from recent sessions on ES showing the predictive nature of the Option sentiment, often preceding major movements in the ES index (during the spot session): First, from the left, the session from November 15 is shown and an opportunity to play Short. On the right, the session from November 16 and an opportunity to play the Long position this time. Session from November 10, where we first got the Bull's signal, and at the top we got a warning signal of traffic reversal and the possibility of entering Short: And one of my favorite moves on November 3:
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by skyline-trader
Bearish buy puts on QQQ with 30 days till expiration remember to make 30% to 200% on put options on QQQ and sell way before expiration it should be noted that all options calls i make are to trade options not hold till expiration buy in or near money a large drop is impending this upward move mite be just the momentum it needs to give strength to a trend reversal to the downside. anway could be a week or two before the large drop occurs make certain when you put in a limit order to sell i would go for 200% profit then when the large dip occurs adjust based on 1hr candle stick movement you can set an alert for massive price drop on NQ to receive a text to phone to let you know
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by natronix
1
USDT.D - BTC/USDT Correlation: Machine's Wisdom or Coding Error?Trading Neural Network finds correlation: Pumping USDT Dominance (USDT.D) = Dumping BTC Price (BTC/USDT). Machine's Wisdom? Or a Coding Error to be fixed? Linear Regression wedges forecast high USDT.D. AI predicts Bullish Wedges on USDT.D. If the correlation is true, BTC could crash. Chart Pattern matching finds correlating Bearish Wedges. The latter is on the BTC/USDT chart. Machine learning made a good call on JUV. See RELATED IDEAS. Is it luck? Or bots beat humans in trading? NNMF* translates the machine's call into the TradingView idea: USDT.D up. BTC/USDT down. So, we marked the post neutral. No human supervision. Trade with caution. *Non-negative matrix factorization translates machine
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.D
by Elysian_Mind
3