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Options Idea: Sell The September 18, 2020 Put @ $1.3ALRM seems to have stopped its downward trend. It has recovered the EMA 8 and is heading back to EMA 20 territory. I sold a Sep 18 2020 55.0 Put @ 1.3 with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next few days or weeks. 20-ALRM-01 Opening Date: August 20, 2020 Expiration Date: September 18, 2020 DTE: 29 IV: 44% IV Percentile: 37% Odds of Winning: 68% Win: > 53.70 @ Expiration Loss: < 53.70 @ Expiration Chart Legend The green area represents 100% win zone. The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. The red area is loss. 1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NASDAQ:ALRMLong
by OptionsCoach
1
Trade Log NIFTY August 14In my August 13 post, I had said “I have a bearish view for tomorrow. I consider the 1 hr candle (11.00 AM) which failed the opening gap and for the day, there was no attempt to recover above 11320. This view is invalid when NIFTY stays above 11360.” I had also mentioned the possibility of big red candle in my post dated “One very interesting observation is, both days and weeks so far have formed dragonfly candles -> open = close (within some points). These candles back to back may be seen as a sign of coming climax+exhaustion. So in the next one or two days, NIFTY may show a large red body candle.” My Trades On break of opening range, I bought 11300 PUT , which was squared off near the end of the day. Today I bought put instead of selling, because when range fails, breakout is sharper. My Observations for the day NIFTY closed 1.08% lower. BANK NIFTY closed 2.33% lower. VIX is up 5.37% Advance Decline ratio is 12 to 37. Open interest data for Options shows the 11000 and 11300 range. Finally after 4 days of tight consolidation, NIFTY broke down below and achieved all the targets. Now further downside possible when NIFTY breaks below 11100. I’ll cover more about the same in my weekend post. Happy Independence Day!!!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY August 12I expressed my thoughts in August 11 post If global cues are supportive , then NIFTY may attempt another go towards 11380-11390 zone. I think this level should pose some resistance. With VIX slowing down, intraday range is compressing. I do not have a clear view for tomorrow. One very interesting observation is, both days and the week so far has formed dragonfly candles -> open = close (within some points). These candles back to back may be seen as a sign of coming climax+exhaustion. So in the next one or two days, NIFTY may show a large red body candle. NIFTY opened a gap down but did not follow through. ================================================================================================================================================ My Trades I sold 11300 PUT when the signal occurred for intraday buy. This was covered later. My observations for the day NIFTY closed flat -0.12% BANK NIFTY closed 0.17% up VIX dropped further 2.41%, so far VIX has dropped 6%+ Advance Decline ratio is 23 to 27 Option data confirming the narrow range of 11200 - 11400. My view Unchanged view. I still feel the climax move is pending on NIFTY. Possible reversal trade is 11380-11400. But for shorting it is best to wait for price action to confirm the same. August 11 Trade Log Weekly View *Possibility 1 as per my assumption.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 30In my trade log of July 29, I commented The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially. This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully. Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day. Review NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range. The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early. It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300. =================================================================== My Trades The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target. I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below. My observations for the day NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%. BANK NIFTY down -1.95% VIX gained 2.55% Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200. FII and DII data neutral. NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000. My view Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day. July 29 Post
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 21My July 20 Trade Log I had said (Link below) Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides. Not much is changed. NIFTY is near the possible resistance zone of 10200-10270. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today Intraday, I sold the CALL option when opening low broke. That trade was trapped. That was a signal for selling PUT as well. Both positions squared off near the end of the day. I am also holding positional short, which is a risky trade. My observations for today NIFTY closed 1.27% up. Gap up was sustained. BANK NIFTY closed 2% up VIX down 1.15% Advance decline ratio 32 to 18. NIFTY is in it’s 6th week of upside. Also it is near the level which has been measured as the target of the move. That is the first swing from March lows to April High. My view for tomorrow and coming week 1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 10200-10270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal. 2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss. 3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 10200.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY July 15In my yesterday’s post, I had said I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top. I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820 I am still waiting for this confirmation. It was not a pause / continuation day as I expected. It was a roller coaster ride. Because of Reliance results, I got out of the trend and avoided trading intra day. My trades today As NIFTY crossed the resistance area, I sold puts and later covered near the target zone. My observations for today NIFTY had a very volatile day finally closed 0.10% up. BANKNIFTY closed -0.24%. VIX dropped 1.3% Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 24 which is neutral. Open Interest data showing 10800 as firm resistance and 10500-10600 band as support. FII and DII data is negative. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Overall, looking at structure, it is confirmed now, that balance has changed in favour of sellers. The question to be answered is if this is some sort of a correction or start of fresh downward. I’ll watch Thursday, Friday and Monday candles to make my opinion the same. In case of fresh downtrend, at least a downward gap, close around or below 10430-10400 is required. View for tomorrow Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560. The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level. I’ll start with assumption of 10560-10700 range and play from there.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think