Get started

Put

Trade Log NIFTY July 30In my trade log of July 29, I commented The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially. This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully. Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day. Review NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range. The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early. It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300. =================================================================== My Trades The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target. I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below. My observations for the day NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%. BANK NIFTY down -1.95% VIX gained 2.55% Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200. FII and DII data neutral. NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000. My view Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day. July 29 Post
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 21My July 20 Trade Log I had said (Link below) Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside. As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides. Not much is changed. NIFTY is near the possible resistance zone of 10200-10270. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today Intraday, I sold the CALL option when opening low broke. That trade was trapped. That was a signal for selling PUT as well. Both positions squared off near the end of the day. I am also holding positional short, which is a risky trade. My observations for today NIFTY closed 1.27% up. Gap up was sustained. BANK NIFTY closed 2% up VIX down 1.15% Advance decline ratio 32 to 18. NIFTY is in it’s 6th week of upside. Also it is near the level which has been measured as the target of the move. That is the first swing from March lows to April High. My view for tomorrow and coming week 1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 10200-10270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal. 2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss. 3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 10200.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY July 15In my yesterday’s post, I had said I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top. I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820 I am still waiting for this confirmation. It was not a pause / continuation day as I expected. It was a roller coaster ride. Because of Reliance results, I got out of the trend and avoided trading intra day. My trades today As NIFTY crossed the resistance area, I sold puts and later covered near the target zone. My observations for today NIFTY had a very volatile day finally closed 0.10% up. BANKNIFTY closed -0.24%. VIX dropped 1.3% Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 24 which is neutral. Open Interest data showing 10800 as firm resistance and 10500-10600 band as support. FII and DII data is negative. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Overall, looking at structure, it is confirmed now, that balance has changed in favour of sellers. The question to be answered is if this is some sort of a correction or start of fresh downward. I’ll watch Thursday, Friday and Monday candles to make my opinion the same. In case of fresh downtrend, at least a downward gap, close around or below 10430-10400 is required. View for tomorrow Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560. The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level. I’ll start with assumption of 10560-10700 range and play from there.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Capital One -- Not in My WalletAlthough Capital One is involved with more than consumer credit cards, it doesn't feel like a great place to be with record unemployment -- while unpopular, I am taking the gamble that the longer term trend is closer to '08 style credit crisis. The indicators line up, as well as the exact price levels. If this sells off (starting with poor earnings next week?) and was to do an exact length match to the bottom as in '08, it would be 17 monthly candles, or in this case roughly December 2021. COF broke through its 200 day moving average, and I don't see the earnings impressing.
NYSE:COFShort
by burn_infinite
1
Trade Log NIFTY July 8Review of yesterday’s view 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily charts now. My trades today I did multiple trades today. And survived the last one hour of selling. I plan to do a tutorial post on the same. It turned out to be not so good day for the tutorial trading, as the last 1 hr selling was very strong and not anticipated. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed -0.87% down. It formed two back to back bearish candles. 2. BANK NIFTY also closed in the red -0.19%. 3. VIX rose 4% indicating uncertainty in the market. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 35. 5. Sentiment has turned bearish confirmed by open interest data. Today’s price action was pivotal in many ways. Though some confirmation would be great in the next 2-3 sessions by big red candle. NIFTY formed dragonfly doji on Tuesday and created bearish engulfing of that doji today. NIFTY closed below the bearish wedge pattern breakout today. This breakout has failed now. BANKNIFTY also formed a bearish candle for the day. All three previous tops had similar price action swing, climax and then fall. My view for tomorrow Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap. Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 2In my yesterday's post I had said 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow, strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today. My view about strong moves, break of 10440 with strong candle all happened. My trades today 1. I sold 10400 PUT on breakout of the range and covered it near 10580 resistance. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY strong up day breaking and closing above previous high. It closed 1.17% up. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.11%. 3. VIX down -5.73%. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 36 to 14. My view for tomorrow 1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move. 2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish. 3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 1Review of June 30 Trade Log 1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240. 2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420. I was wrong to assume the breakout is on downside. NIFTY broke out of the range on upside. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today I was expecting a trending day today. I sold 10400 PUT on opening range break. I covered it end of day for profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My observations today 1. NIFTY gained 1.24%. Technically it is a breakout after 4 days of consolidation. 2. BANKNIFTY gained 2.84%. 3. VIX dropped 3.43% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 23. This is neutral. 5. Option data showing 10300 - 10500 range. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 23In my post yesterday (link below), I had said, 1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280. 2. Even it goes little below but stays above 10060, the view remains intact. 3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500. 4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone. 5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now. The consolidation did not play out for long and deep enough, but point 3 worked perfectly. My trades today 1. When NIFTY broke above opening range, I sold 10400 PUT which I covered near end of day. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed near high of the day and finished 1.55% higher. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 2.56% higher. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.68% 4. Advance Decline ratio 46 to 4. Thats very good. 5. Option covering is not seen so far at 10500 CALL. From the action today, my view is 1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days. 2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry. 3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600. My weekly view My post yesterday
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 9In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said 1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon. 2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process. 3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation. 4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level. 5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators. From these points, I feel confident 1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well. 2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range. 3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that. 4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950. My trades today: 1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness. 2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day. Observations for the day 1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down. 2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down. 3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up. 4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135. 5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum. 6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100. My readings for tomorrow 1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation. 2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone. 3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280. 4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 5In my view of 4th June I had said 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is cooling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is under performer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Overall, I believe we have started seeing the push I mentioned and it may continue on Monday. My trades today. 1. On break of opening range I sold 10100 PUT, but that did not work out well. It did not hit the stop loss and I closed it when it turned back in profit. My observations today 1. NIFTY opened gap up, in the consolidation region and at the end recovered and closed near high of the day. It gained 1.13%. 2. BANK NIFTY was strong 3.16% 3. India VIX supporting the rally by going down 3.40%. That means traders are less anxious about this gains for now. 4. Market breadth very positive. 1567 advances to 309 declines. NIFTY 40 advances and 10 declines. 5. Option open interest data shows traders are balanced. Not very bullish and not bearish. 6. Weekly candle very positive , its 2nd around 6% week. Overall trend is positive on weekly and daily time frames. The rise is fast and till I see the signs of consolidation, I assume upward trend is intact. I plan to do a detailed weekly view post over the weekend. Have a nice weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 4In my view of June 3 I had said 1. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Overall there are some tiredness signs visible for the rally, but I still wont short it tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow will be 7th day. I think there is one more push remaining for NIFTY in current swing before consolidation. 3. I'll mostly wait on sideline, and not take much bets in first half of the day. So not much change here actually, NIFTY saw consolidation around 10000. My trades today 1. When NIFTY came to touch the support around 9980, I sold 10000 PUT and later covered it for profit. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY was choppy and it was uneventful expiry. NIFTY closed -0.32% down 2. BANKNIFTY lost -2.63%. And it mostly contributed to NIFTY's fall. 3. VIX is stable and fell below 30. 4. Advance Decline ratio neutral market wide and for NIFTY it is 26 to 23 5. Option chain indicating sideways expectation of traders as there is balanced open interest. Today's action favouring consolidation with downward bias. 10500 and 9500 have highest open interest. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is colling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is underperformer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Given this view I wont short currently. And keep playing intra day levels cautiously.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 02In my June 1 update, I had said 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intra day movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary. In short, my reading was OK. I anticipated the consolidation to last atleast for couple of days. But NIFTY broke out of 9930, and range is not formed, It took support in 9800 area. My trades today 1. I squared my 9900 CALL for loss start of the day. This was a big loss. 2. When 2nd touch of resistance was touched, I sold 9900 CALL and covered that quickly for profit one first sign of strength. 3. Then on breakout I sold 9900 PUT and covered it for profit end of the day. My observations for the day 1. This rally has its 5th positive day. Today NIFTY closed with 1.5% gain. 2. BANK NIFTY outperformed and closed 2.86%. BANK NIFTY closed right at the key level of 20530. 3. INDIA VIX closed 30.12, 2% down 4. Advance Decline ration was ok 36:14, Not as strong as it could be. But BANKNIFTY can drag it along. My view for tomorrow 1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000. 2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400. 3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it. 4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 1In my trade log for May 29 I had said 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not given any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring. For point 3, we saw the gap today. Let us see if we get more gaps in the next few trading sessions. My trades today. I was not very comfortable going long after a large gap right above resistance level. I did conservative trade. I sold 9700 PUT and covered it in profit. Then I stayed away from the trades. I still hold 9900 CALL sold on Friday which I’ll hold till NIFTY crosses 9920. I observed the following about price action today. NIFTY gaped up above 9730 and filled the previous high gap. It closed with 2.57% gain. BANKNIFTY outperformed and gained 3.43% VIX rose 1.73% Advance Decline ratio 40:10. What I read about the price action today 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intraday movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think