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Trade Log NIFTY July 8Review of yesterday’s view 1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels. 2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade. 3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989. It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily charts now. My trades today I did multiple trades today. And survived the last one hour of selling. I plan to do a tutorial post on the same. It turned out to be not so good day for the tutorial trading, as the last 1 hr selling was very strong and not anticipated. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed -0.87% down. It formed two back to back bearish candles. 2. BANK NIFTY also closed in the red -0.19%. 3. VIX rose 4% indicating uncertainty in the market. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 35. 5. Sentiment has turned bearish confirmed by open interest data. Today’s price action was pivotal in many ways. Though some confirmation would be great in the next 2-3 sessions by big red candle. NIFTY formed dragonfly doji on Tuesday and created bearish engulfing of that doji today. NIFTY closed below the bearish wedge pattern breakout today. This breakout has failed now. BANKNIFTY also formed a bearish candle for the day. All three previous tops had similar price action swing, climax and then fall. My view for tomorrow Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap. Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 2In my yesterday's post I had said 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow, strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today. My view about strong moves, break of 10440 with strong candle all happened. My trades today 1. I sold 10400 PUT on breakout of the range and covered it near 10580 resistance. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY strong up day breaking and closing above previous high. It closed 1.17% up. 2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.11%. 3. VIX down -5.73%. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 36 to 14. My view for tomorrow 1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move. 2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish. 3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 1Review of June 30 Trade Log 1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240. 2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420. I was wrong to assume the breakout is on downside. NIFTY broke out of the range on upside. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My trades today I was expecting a trending day today. I sold 10400 PUT on opening range break. I covered it end of day for profit. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My observations today 1. NIFTY gained 1.24%. Technically it is a breakout after 4 days of consolidation. 2. BANKNIFTY gained 2.84%. 3. VIX dropped 3.43% 4. Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 23. This is neutral. 5. Option data showing 10300 - 10500 range. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout. 2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow. 3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout. 4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 23In my post yesterday (link below), I had said, 1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280. 2. Even it goes little below but stays above 10060, the view remains intact. 3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500. 4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone. 5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now. The consolidation did not play out for long and deep enough, but point 3 worked perfectly. My trades today 1. When NIFTY broke above opening range, I sold 10400 PUT which I covered near end of day. My observations for the day. 1. NIFTY closed near high of the day and finished 1.55% higher. 2. BANKNIFTY closed 2.56% higher. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.68% 4. Advance Decline ratio 46 to 4. Thats very good. 5. Option covering is not seen so far at 10500 CALL. From the action today, my view is 1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days. 2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry. 3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600. My weekly view My post yesterday
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 9In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said 1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon. 2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process. 3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation. 4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level. 5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators. From these points, I feel confident 1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well. 2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range. 3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that. 4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950. My trades today: 1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness. 2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day. Observations for the day 1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down. 2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down. 3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up. 4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135. 5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum. 6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100. My readings for tomorrow 1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation. 2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone. 3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280. 4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 5In my view of 4th June I had said 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is cooling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is under performer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Overall, I believe we have started seeing the push I mentioned and it may continue on Monday. My trades today. 1. On break of opening range I sold 10100 PUT, but that did not work out well. It did not hit the stop loss and I closed it when it turned back in profit. My observations today 1. NIFTY opened gap up, in the consolidation region and at the end recovered and closed near high of the day. It gained 1.13%. 2. BANK NIFTY was strong 3.16% 3. India VIX supporting the rally by going down 3.40%. That means traders are less anxious about this gains for now. 4. Market breadth very positive. 1567 advances to 309 declines. NIFTY 40 advances and 10 declines. 5. Option open interest data shows traders are balanced. Not very bullish and not bearish. 6. Weekly candle very positive , its 2nd around 6% week. Overall trend is positive on weekly and daily time frames. The rise is fast and till I see the signs of consolidation, I assume upward trend is intact. I plan to do a detailed weekly view post over the weekend. Have a nice weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 4In my view of June 3 I had said 1. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Overall there are some tiredness signs visible for the rally, but I still wont short it tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow will be 7th day. I think there is one more push remaining for NIFTY in current swing before consolidation. 3. I'll mostly wait on sideline, and not take much bets in first half of the day. So not much change here actually, NIFTY saw consolidation around 10000. My trades today 1. When NIFTY came to touch the support around 9980, I sold 10000 PUT and later covered it for profit. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY was choppy and it was uneventful expiry. NIFTY closed -0.32% down 2. BANKNIFTY lost -2.63%. And it mostly contributed to NIFTY's fall. 3. VIX is stable and fell below 30. 4. Advance Decline ratio neutral market wide and for NIFTY it is 26 to 23 5. Option chain indicating sideways expectation of traders as there is balanced open interest. Today's action favouring consolidation with downward bias. 10500 and 9500 have highest open interest. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is colling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is underperformer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Given this view I wont short currently. And keep playing intra day levels cautiously.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 02In my June 1 update, I had said 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intra day movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary. In short, my reading was OK. I anticipated the consolidation to last atleast for couple of days. But NIFTY broke out of 9930, and range is not formed, It took support in 9800 area. My trades today 1. I squared my 9900 CALL for loss start of the day. This was a big loss. 2. When 2nd touch of resistance was touched, I sold 9900 CALL and covered that quickly for profit one first sign of strength. 3. Then on breakout I sold 9900 PUT and covered it for profit end of the day. My observations for the day 1. This rally has its 5th positive day. Today NIFTY closed with 1.5% gain. 2. BANK NIFTY outperformed and closed 2.86%. BANK NIFTY closed right at the key level of 20530. 3. INDIA VIX closed 30.12, 2% down 4. Advance Decline ration was ok 36:14, Not as strong as it could be. But BANKNIFTY can drag it along. My view for tomorrow 1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000. 2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400. 3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it. 4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 1In my trade log for May 29 I had said 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not given any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring. For point 3, we saw the gap today. Let us see if we get more gaps in the next few trading sessions. My trades today. I was not very comfortable going long after a large gap right above resistance level. I did conservative trade. I sold 9700 PUT and covered it in profit. Then I stayed away from the trades. I still hold 9900 CALL sold on Friday which I’ll hold till NIFTY crosses 9920. I observed the following about price action today. NIFTY gaped up above 9730 and filled the previous high gap. It closed with 2.57% gain. BANKNIFTY outperformed and gained 3.43% VIX rose 1.73% Advance Decline ratio 40:10. What I read about the price action today 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intraday movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 29First, I'll start with the review of my yesterdays post. Yesterday, I had posted my view and some important levels that I use on the chart. I had said 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. And I had marked levels on the chart, which I used in my trading decisions today.Both points were quite obvious. Good thing, market played out to the levels wells. This is no guarantee, sometimes market coincides with your point of view by chance. My trades today 1) I sold 9500 CALLs around first resistance and closed it at weak support level of the day. 2) Then when high of the day was tested multiple times, it was broken and I sold 9500 PUT which I squared off. 3) Since INDIA VIX is around 30, I attempted to take few overnight positions. I sold some 9900 CALL options. Lets see how it goes. Its risky. My observations of the day 1) NIFTY closed positive for the third day in a row. 0.95% for today and around 6.4% in 3 days. 2) NIFTY is now in kind of uncharted territory. Less price action in 9500 - 9900 has very less price history in last 2 months. 3) BANK NIFTY unperformed and did not make new high like nifty. 4) INDIA VIX increased little. 5) Advance Decline ratio 36 to 14. I dont have conclusions, as I have I would like to wait till Monday to have clear view. I'll also post detailed weekly review coming weekend. But from days action 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause NIFTY;s momentum some consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not give any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY May 28First, I'll start with reviewing my yesterdays post I had said 1. I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2. I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000. As per plan, I traded light and also stopped trading around 1.30PM My trades today: 1) This trade was pretty simple. I sold 9400 PUT on open and waited for first sign of weakness. 2) Then when there was failure to continue, I sold 9400 CALL and then squared near bottom of the range. My Observations today: 1) Expiry day today. NIFTY gained 1.88% 2) BANKNIFTY gained 2.45% 3) INDIA VIX fell 4% 4) Advance Decline is 42 to 8. Broader market 1245 to 531. So it was broad based buying. 5) For next week, Option data shows bullish bets, Highest OI at 9000 and 9500. My reading of the price action. 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. I have also marked important levels tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade log NIFTY May 27In my yesterdays note, I had said 1. I had said , "Tuesdays price action should be taken as indicative of trend forward". I believe in that and till expiry, there could be down trend continuation. 2. I am not sure if 9000 will hold. 8970 - 8940 is key support region, if this fails, the bias is on short side. 3. Again 9150 - 8950 is the range we are looking at. I am not going to sell options around this range, as this is expiry week and there can be surprises. But trade will come when breakout of the range happens. I was wrong on my Tuesday reading referred in point 1. Point 2 is invalidated for some time. For point 3, it helped me as I did not sold options overnight. And today NIFTY and BANK NIFTY created large move. My trades today : First I closed my yesterdays trade of buying PUT option for loss, as there was no follow through for down movement. Then I made number of trades all for decent profit and as per plan. My profit was limited, because I had 9200 as target in mind and did not traded much after that. BANKNIFTY actually offered much clear opportunity on charts. I'll post that separately as it turned out very nicely. My observations for the day : 1. NIFTY made big candle after consolidation. 2. Today is a day before monthly expiry. 3. BANKNIFTY outperformed and closed 7%+ 4. INDIA VIX fell less than a percent. 5. Index breadth was positive, 41 to 9 but overall breadth was OK, 1059 to 712 6. NIFTY closed above 10,20,30 and 50 day simple moving average. So overall clear trend day. The only suspicious things are 1) VIX did not fell heavily. That means, NIFTY has to consolidate to keep this gains and make it a new swing. 2) Timing of today's rally. Near expiry so, I wont go all in. My reading 1) I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2) I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 21My trades today. 1) I had entered credit spread (Sell 9000 Put / Buy 8800 Put) for 71 rs. This expired in full profit. 2) Then as NIFTY was consolidating in the range, made a risky reversal trade and quickly got out. I sold 9100 call and covered it. 3) On breakout of 9145 I was able to Sell 9200 PUT and and squared it around resitance. This turned out to be good decision as NIFTY fell after that. I did not trade after that because NIFTY unexpectedly moved down around 2.30. In my last post I had said 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD . 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level , means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally. For point 1, NIFTY confirmed by staying in green. For point 2, BANK NIFTY may be looking bad, but managed to form higher high and higher low for daily candle today. I maintain that I'll wait till Friday for another confirmation on pullback rally. For point 3, intra-day bias is on bullish side till NIFTY is above 9000. For point 4, VIX again dropped, expiry day effect as well. But still one more confirmation about 8800 support for pullback rally. From the price action today 1. NIFTY gained, BANKNIFTY closed in red. drop in bank NIFTY sudden after 2.30. 2. VIX fell by another 8%. 3. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both candles are weak. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 20. OK. not great. From this action my reading for Friday. 1. I am reluctant to jump on either sides for long term future. For tomorrow, I maintain my bullish bias in NIFTY. 2. I'll change my view when NIFTY drops below 9030-9000 zone. 3. I think tomorrows day may decide the trend for next week.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 20My trades Today 1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped. 2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow. 3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD. In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once. In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here. Observations about price action today 1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up. 2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11% 3.VIX down 9%+ 4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8. 5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low. For next 2 days, 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD. 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1