Put
$SPY $SPX $ES1! Another ATH this year - earnings season strong!I reviewed my previous SPY analysis and made a few crucial mistakes. Do not follow my previous spx, spy ideas.
I spent more time studying the charts, the VIX and the products inside S&P 500. I'm expecting another all time high this year before a larger correction.
Here is the chart and targets I'm quite confident with and will be playing. Follow along for updates.
I'm expecting the correction to start end of Nov or early Dec. I'm betting on 26-29 November.
Good luck!
PS. If you see my other SPY, SPX, ES Analysis on Trading View. Ignore it. I've closed older ideas.
PANIC - AMD Initiates Fibonacci Retracement Phase 2AMD -7.03% has formed a sharp downward triangle on the 1h chart (looks like the beginning of a Gartley). Lots of sell strength, only people buying are the ones who missed the pump and think they are buying the dip - BIG MISTAKE. Proof? Check out the Accumulation/Distribution , and you will find the beginning of a new peak, a new era if you will...
AMD -7.03% historically initiates a pump and dump ritual every decade or so. What is interesting this go around is that AMD -7.03% did not make it quite as high, which in my opinion is a good thing for the stock overall (shows that people's expectations for AMD -7.03% , although overblown, are factoring in irrational exuberance). If this thing follows the historical trend (confirmation bias has a tendency to instantiate the past) we could go down as much as half value from here, to around $15. I would like to see AMD -7.03% stabilize around the $20 mark, which would be a first for the stock, and a very healthy sign long-term.
XPO - good potential to come down tomorrow 8/15Looking at the moving average on the daily charts, you can see that the stock is starting to trend down. MACD, StochasticRSI, and the Directional Movement indicators all agree with the movement down. The weekly chart is also showing a movement down still and has hit a ceiling on the middle bollinger band. Good opportunity to watch and get in if the stock shows a downward movement in the next day.
BAC SHORTBAC (and the rest of the banking industry) has a rough few months ahead. The major institution has seen solid gains over the past year and is about to relinquish them all. The major indication this downtrend is about to pick up steam is seen as the 50 day moving average is ready to cross below the 200 day moving average, a major bearish sign known as the death cross. Price on the weekly candle has managed to close significantly below this intersection point, a sign that a significant decline could come sooner than later as there is very little support below the current price. Seen on the chart above, RSI is also headed south with no sign of retracement anytime soon. Money Flow is in a steep downtrend as well. I anticipate BAC seeing at least a 20% decline in the coming months. The last time BAC had a similar set up with the 50 day moving average crossing over the 200 day moving average, the stock fell 33% in 6 weeks. I have picked up November and December puts for BAC (and JPM because the chart and my prediction is basically the same).
Citi Is In For a Technically Bumpy RideI did this analysis really elucidate what an "extended ceiling" looks like. The annotations are pretty straight forward AND if you look well enough you'll see an upside-down cup and handle forming and if you squint just right you'll see a head and shoulders forming. I would've shown it on the diagram but the drawing would've become too busy to make sense. Notice too, that the 21-day moving average is working well as a support and as a resistance. Admittedly, I haven't done any fundamental analysis but preliminary, doing things in reverse, we see that Citi, technically, is in for a rough ride. If there's a stock you're fixing to take a position, put the ticker in comments section also what position, long or short, you want to take.
Break out or Break down - $C - CitigroupShort-term call?
After a quick drop and sharp earnings reversal, Citigroup seems to be ready to break out of the "Head and Shoulders" pattern it has been setting for a year. In the past two years especially, the second half of the year has typically been a boon to the Financial Sector. Due to the lack of resistance, if Citigroup does resume it's trend, it's clear skies until $73 or 8 strikes from it's Monday (7/16/18) close of $69.47. MACD & RSI divergence, higher lows & highs, hint it's break out time; although $C tends to test support when closing below a mid-dollar strike (e.g. $68.5, $69.5 ... ) many signs seem bullish.
Short-term Put?
Since the 100-day MA hasn't been traversed quite yet and dimming global outlook for a very globally diverse financial institution are pertinent concerns: a resumption of $C's breakdown toward $67.50 is still plausible; Less likely after $66.50 was touched and multiple lines of support drawn there after during the post-earnings fire-sell, but still plausible all the same. Having a complete collapse like the "Head & Shoulders" suggests, and a fall straight through $66 is more of a longer term trend that is unlikely, but still possible. Caution would be to start with a strangle or straddle around the $69.50 strike, with the call focusing on the resistance-turn-support of $69 (firmly in the money) and roll the dice with the put's placement, with one's choice on potential gains.
At the end of the day:
Financial deregulation, tactical global divestment, Citigroup's 10% share buyback, increase in dividend payouts and a solid beat on it's Q2 earnings (despite the sell-off) all point toward a brighter future. Old allies and Old foes becoming the opposite, nationalistic rhetoric and new Middle-Eastern oil deals all are obstacles, but whether they are insurmountable is up to your short-term hypothesis because only time tells; and time is always money.
Nifty Trade Setup - 29th juneHello all,
First I would like to say sorry for late update for nifty Trade setup for yesterday. Guys, We had made the damn good profit. It was almost breakout their strongest support when hit 10558 but closed 10589 later of the day. Today we need to wait for first 30 minutes. If nifty closed 10550 then we will go with sell and our target is 10515/10436 but if started to trade above then 10600 then we will buy for 10631 target.
My Trades : gyazo.com
Good luck
Nifty Trade Setup- 28th juneHey all,
Hope you guys have made good money from my yesterday Nifty trade call. It was like a falling knife when broked the support. yesterday Channel was invalid because channel support has been already broked. It's making a new channel and sitting on their support. I am going to take a put if breakout or go with call if retrace above. Good luck
Nifty Trade Setup - 27h june Hey all,
There is no major move in Nifty 50 today. It's still sitting on their channel support. I am still confident for this support which has not broken from weeks. My trade setup based on it. If nifty breakout it then I will go with put if retrace above then I will go with the call. It's same as yesterday
Beware Tomorrow market will be violated because of expiry.Good luck
My Trade Result for Today : i.gyazo.com
Nifty Trade setup for FNO - 26th juneHello Everyone,
Hope you all doing good and making good profit. Our today target has been also achieved and I also make good ROI from my Investments. Currently Nifty has reached again on their support which is on 10760. Remember Nifty is testing this support third time and there is a lot of chances to breakout this support tomorrow because of expiry. so Be aware and wait for first 30 minutes before opening your put.
1. Open put if it's breakout support and started to trade lower then 10740. Target is 10710
2 Open Call if it's rejects to breakout their support and started to trade above then 10770. Target is 10821/10893
Today Result is : i.gyazo.com
Bank Nifty - Trade Setup for 22th June 2018Hello all ,
Bank Nifty is so slow yesterday and did not make any major move, maybe it's happened because of the June Closing. There is 2 major point of bank Bank Nifty and it was traded btw in these 2 points for a couple of weeks.
26136 is a major support and 26762 is resistance. Bank Nifty was trading btw in this channel but I had seen a bearish divergence in 2 hour time frame and think that bank Nifty will be breakout his support today and will go lower. I did not have any target in my mind because of The market scenario. We will see where is it going . First 30 minute is important to watch but yeah I will avoid to with call or buy Position .
Good luck