FB pennant ending soonFB is currently forming a pennant and the apex is around the first week in February. Most likely the pennant will break down from its current level, or bounce and break up.
First things first, FB is going down. Historically when the Coppock Curve reaches its current level, the stock drops an average of 7.78% with a minimum move around 0.75%. My conservative take is a slight drop over the next few weeks to at least 115.60. If this is the breakout for the pennant the move could be much lower putting a 7% drop in play.
Put
LVS is not done droppingHistorically when VI reaches this level the LVS drops at least another 1%. The average drop is 13.13% with a minimum historical drop of 1.81%.
The support line in the current trend channel would equate to roughly a 6% drop over the next few weeks. I am conservatively forecasting a drop to the 52.45 level which is roughly 3.23% from the close on December 27.
More bad news for LVSA fourth indicator of a drop is based on historical levels for the Coppock Curve. LVS drops on average 11.05% when the Coppock Curve reaches its current mark. My conservative play at this point is a drop to the psychological 49.50 mark. This would bring in around 9% for the stock, but could bring in well over 75% on a properly placed PUT option.
EDU - Upward channel breakdown trade from $41.57 to $37.33EDU broken down from a long term upward channel.Retested it & seems rolling over. We think it will be good short from here.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $41.57
Exit Target Criteria- $37.33
Stop Loss Criteria- $43.13
Option: $40 Apr-17 Puts
You can check detailed analysis on EDU in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 10:10"
Trade Status: Pending
MOMO - Moving average powered Short set up from $16.87 to $13.63
MOMO rolling over very nicely with very good divergence moneyflow. Its very volatile & seems to have the power of moving average behind it. Looking a very good short setup
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $16.87
Exit Target Criteria- $13.63 or lower
Stop Loss Criteria- $18.37
Option: $17.50 Apr puts @ $2.6
You can check detailed analysis on MOMO in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 7:45"
Trade Status: Pending
FLT - Rising wedge & pennant breakdown short - Target $125FLT broke down from a rising wedge, consolidated in pennant formation and now seems breaking down from the pennant. It is showing strong downward momentum as it crossed down all the moving average & down volume increased huge. Overall it looks a decent short with good risk-reward ratio.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $140.71 or rally to 146
Exit Target Criteria- $125.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $150.73
Option: $155 May-17 puts
You can check detailed analysis on FLT in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 5:35"
Trade Status: Pending
BABA will dropHistorically BABA drops on average 7.57% when the VI reaches its current level. I have laid out 3 potential levels it could drop to. The first hurdle (which should easily be met) is 87.88 (pink dotted line). BABA has not been South of this mark since August. My three levels will certainly be in play once the stock drops past this level.
CONSERVATIVE PLAY:
The stock will drop and a nice solid psychological 85.00 is the position I am most comfortable playing.
AVERAGE DROP:
WIth the average drop of 7.57%, a solid 7% drop above the bottom trendlines is a safer play.
BOTTOM OF PSEUDO TRENDCHANNEL:
Although it is not the "official" bottom of the trendchannel, it has been a more common support line in the current trend. This position is just below the 80 mark which is more than a 10% drop from its current position. This is a riskier bet, but not impossible considering international instability and most stocks being significantly overpriced.
Third indicator of imminent LVS dropMany historical indicators are at play and against the short term for LVS. When the TSI reaches this level is stock drops at least another 1% but drops on average 9.14% over the next few weeks. I have outlined 3 potential points LVS could drop to.
CONSERVATIVE POINT:
With the average drop around 9.14%, an even 9% drop would be around the 51.88 mark and it is within the current trendchannel.
ESTIMATED BOTTOM OF TRENDCHANNEL AFTER NEW YEAR:
The estimated bottom of the trendchannel within the next few weeks is around the 50.50 mark which roughly equates to a 11.42% decline.
PRIOR 2015 INTEREST RATE HIKE DROP:
When interest rates were increased in December 2015, LVS dropped around 20.22% from the OPEN the day after the decision to the bottom before it turned around. This bottom is the current bottom line of the trendchannel, however, a similar 20% drop would bust out of the current trend. Although movement of this nature is most likely not going to be as drastic, nothing can be ruled out.
More bumps in LVS roadHistorically when this indicator surpasses this level, the stock declines by at least 1%. The average decline is 10.85%. There are many fundamentals in play with this technical indicator that will support a decline.
There are three levels to watch, my play is always the most conservative one.
CONSERVATIVE:
A simple 6% drop to around the low from Dec 8 over the next few weeks.
HISTORICAL AVG:
For historical drops, I try to chose a conservative milestone. Even though the average drop is more than 10%, A safe play is a drop to the 52.10 level.
LAST INTEREST RATE INCREASE:
Last time interest rates increased. LVS dropped more than 22% in only 10 trading days! That was exactly two weeks about a year ago. Unsure what the reaction will be this time around since most pundits agree a interest rate increase is not built in to the recent BULL market boost. The stock could drop another 22%, but my conservative play is to the psychological milestone of 48.00.
MORE DOWN DAYS TO COME FOR LVSHistorically when LVS surpasses this RSI level, the stock drops at least one more percent over the next few weeks. In fact the minimal drop is 2.93% with an average drop of 6.17%. The bottom of the trend channel is well beyond the 6% but my conservative play is a drop to the 53 milestone which would net around 3% and most likely around 30% with a PUT option.
Historically singular large drops for LVS are not isolated incidents and the stock continues downward in the immediate days following a shock drop like the one that occurred on Dec 8, 16.
RDSA in the money put/shortwith recent fluctuations in the shell i expect a comperable swingback to the long turn support. as such a oppertunity arises to make money through going short or buying a in the money put at 24.6. i would like to hold this put/short till januari or februari.
While aex might hit a al time high coming kalander year, i expect a pullback around christmas.
Short GS again! KEEP buying powder dry to add (scenario below)HUGE OPPORTUNITY FOR AGGRESSIVE, WELL-FUNDED TRADERS. Start Shorting today Tues 12/6 and keep shorting if you buy off on scenario below. I feel this is now a rare opportunity - but hold onto your Tums bottle all the same. GS is 231 with 20 mins. to go today, and it's been holding - but in a narrower range than usual. The RSIs (especially the default 14 pt IA AND HAS BEEN OBSCENELY OVERBOUGHT and it has ben my experience that the longer this RSI remains over 80, the harder and choppier the fall. Macd has signaled - as have the oscillators .
I love trading GS and made one short reco last week which worked out well in the first hour of trading. We are setting up for another pullback for the following reason: the stock has gone parabolic (you do not need me to tell you that!) and parabolas have two sides! Why so much gas in Goldman? Aside from Goldman Grads being in just about every federal and world banking arm, they surround the presidents - and Goldman kicks ass in their bond trading department -- WHEN there is bond volatility. Indeed, this year is setting up for that positive aspect for GS, along with huge deals and the obvious deregulation spark that lit up the financials. Goldman stands to have a great year - but we are a tad ahead of ourselves here - for a logical reason, but it is far from a fundamentally or technically sound reason...
But this insane run since the election may have started on fundamentals - but has shifted to Window dressing by the big retail Mutual Funds(at this moment - AND I FINALLY sense the gas drying up). Am I brilliant? Clearly not - but I have noticed a shift in IBD's "New Buys (by the top 1/3rd best Mutual funds )- and out of 99 funds active in GS, over weeks it has gone from mostly buying to now - out of 99 funds - 55 buyers and 45 net sellers. The smart nimble guys got in and took as much as a 50% upside bite ( or chomp) and now are taking profits and getting the hell out.
The stock has garnered so much attention, the remaining "big boys" who cater to the masses are just dressing up positions for the one time of year when their investors may actually look at the positions carefully - and managers don't want to be asked why or how they dont own GS -- God forbid. BUT BUT BUT..
Today, with the market firing to the upside several times - Goldman has stopped participating - where practically every other day , a few points in the S&P translated to points in GS as funds wanted in before losing more upside potential. Today, however, was important in that a few analysts changed their targets (I think one guy revised his from 189 to 245). HSBC came out and initiated with a 250 target. THIS SAYS THAT EVEN THE LATECOMERS TRYING TO SHOW A GOOD RESEARCH CALL ARE NOT SEEING MUCH MORE UPSIDE HERE.
Start building put positions by whatever style you use - but I would suggest leveraging the hell out of 25% of your trading money on this by rolling into the front week in the < $1.00 range. Use the rest for put or call spreads or whatever your style is -- but the spreads have been especially lucrative when you anticipate the premium deflation that results when the next week becomes the front week (a long way of saying do this on Friday close or Monday 1st 30 mins and you will make money 4 out of 5 times in this environment. I would keep a couple of near positions - and i have built positions out as far as 4 weeks.
It is remotely possible - and I say remotely - that Goldman holds up until the first of January. Hell - they could be doing a deal and decide to prop themselves up as much as possible because stock is currency somewhere in some enormous transaction - with Goldman, strange things definitely happen behind the curtain. But everything i see points to some real heart-thumping pullbacks once the pullbacks start - we could see some amazing jolts of easily 10 to 20 points, on multiple occasions, so trade them all individually if possible) on the downside, so try to hang in. Good luck
FDP - Inverted flag pattern short from $56.13 to $50 or lower FDP seems forming a inverted flag formation. It broke down major support & moneyflow is very deep down. It had some insider selling as well. Overall it seems a good shorting opportunity.
Trade criteria
Open - Break of $56.13
Target - $50, 34
Stoploss- $57.53
Note: - $55 Mar-17 Puts @ $1.70
You can check our detailed analysis on FDP in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span- 14:10"
Trade Status: Pending
ADDITIONAL INDICATOR CRM is heading downFor the second trading day in a row, another historical indicator points to continued decline for CRM. Historically when TSI breaks below this level, the stock drops at least 1.05%, with an average of 2.37%. There are two long term support trendlines and the nearest is around 65.30.
A conservative drop to around 65.75 within the next few weeks is my safer play. PUT options could bring in 15-35% if placed appropriately.
The long term trend is a wedge with an apex around 68.88 for November 2017. Most like the stock will break the wedge prior to that point but could be entering a state of less than 10 point moves over many months.
SALES PROBLEM FOR SALESFORCE?Historically when the RSI for CRM hits this level, the stock drops at least 1%. The more likely figure is 4.82%. A conservative drop continues along one of the many trendlines. My play is a drop of around 3.83%.
This play could bring in 20-41% with perfectly placed PUTs.
No news is good news, especially FAKE news for FBHistotically, when the VI (negative) reaches this level, FB drops at least 0.74%. All trendlines have been busted and an actual bottom to this disaster is unknown. Some advertisers may be unwilling to play FB's game and the value of the stock could easily continue to suffer.
Once this VI level is breeched, the average drop is 4.82%. I have chosen a more conservative drop based on recent common support levels. My safer play is a decent PUT position that can easily bring in 20-40% within two weeks.
NO-GO for GOPROStill going down.My conservative play is only 2.34% to a common support level. Historical when the VI (negative) breaks above this level, the stock drops an average of 15.12% over the next few weeks. The minimal move is 1.25%.
Fortunately or not, there is not much room to drop. Holiday shoppers are most likely looking for deals and the price tag on GPRO products versus lower priced competitors continues to make GO PRO a NO-GO.
TSLA going downHistorically when RSI reaches this level, the stock continues to decline at least 1%. The average drop is 9.02% while the minimum move has been 1.47%. I anticipate this stock dropping at least 3.23% from the close of December 1.
This is a great opportunity to make 10-30% on PUT options.
VISA TO DROP AT LEAST ANOTHER PERCENTHistorically, when RSI reaches its current mark, this stock drops at least another 1%. On average it is actually 4.34% with the minimum drop of 2.64%.
A conservative play is a drop of 1.70% to fall in line with the bottom of the trend channel. Anticipate a 10-30% minimum profit from a solid PUT.
TFX - Inverted Flag formation short from $145.93 to $132.13 TFX broke-down long tern trend in weekly frame, retested it from beneath & now falling down. In the daily frame it is forming a bear flag formation & related upward channel. Both pattern suggestion a decline & we are looking for a short if it breaks below $145.93 & our first target is $132.13
You can check our detailed analysis on TFX in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 4:30"
Trade Status: Pending
SIX - Short from top of the upper channel-line/resistance to $49SIX getting weaker after touching its resistance level near top of the upward channel. We think it will reverse from here & it would decline breaking the channel formation. We think it will decline to $49 area.
For trade we would consider $60 March-17 Puts @ $5.60
You can check our detailed analysis on SIX in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.screencast.com
Time Span:0:35:30"
Trade Status: Pending
Well, we are still in an uptrend, technically speaking After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies in my opinion.