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No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands. So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50. Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls). At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets. For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
NYMEX:CL1!
by mjhillpp
Generated buy/cover signals on RSI StochastikGold bounced off of the support area for now Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend --> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies. Resistance at: - 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish) - 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240 Overall: the lack of volume on the bounce indicates the lows might be tested again as the downtrend is still prevailing. Took advantage of the break the last 5 days, but covering my short puts now I dont have any sells signals yet, hence I am not doing anything until I see some
COMEX:GC1!
by mjhillpp
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long: - Trend line provided massive support (dark red line) - High volume at support and during the rally - future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation) - If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal Contra Long: - running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA) I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
CLong
by mjhillpp
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart): - RSI and Stochastik created buy signal - Orange support line Pro Long (Physical): - ICE warehouse stocks new lows - spreads tightening ever so slightly Contra (Chart): - still in middle to upper end of trend channel - room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band - long term trend still down - risk/reward for long position not there IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread. Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
K
by mjhillpp
Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp
Looking for a short that wont go up as the S&P recovers? KODK is circling the drain. Their balance sheet and quarterly income is very unimpressive; they don't look like the books of a company on a rebound but rather a company winding down operations. Q4 2014 they had $260m~ assets over liabilities, that number is down to a scant $75m~. During the same period, cost of revenue is down about 17% vs revenue being down 'only' 13% but that's not terribly impressive. Don't get me wrong, I like film cameras. Working in a dark room to print your own photos is great. But it is a niche market that doesn't match up with Kodak's half billion market cap (they don't even make cameras mind you!) The film market is dominated by Polaroid, toy cameras, and pre-owned sales. Film and paper are not a monopoly for Kodak in the 21st century with Fuji, Ilford and others long pushing Kodak out of frame. This chart shows Kodak's next slide. The 1 day MACD is already breaking negative and the chart below is the 3-day MACD showing that the leveling/upturn from the start of this year is over. Kodak may as well have agreed to sell their wares exclusively at Radioshack. Much of what their current business is (business services etc) doesn't have the same economies of scale that Xerox and others have. They could have held some patents and licensed the remainder to get some revenue streams but it's too late now. Maybe Kodak is already "winding down" and doesn't want to acknowledge it publicly. They don't have to wind down to zero; they can still be a single factory film manufacturer, making a tidy profit for a few dozen employees. But a half billion dollar multinational? Sorry, but that image is fading fast. Bottom line: Buy put options for as far out as possible and sit on them---Take a higher strike price (>$8) if you are looking for a cheap bet, low strike price if you are looking for a super cheap bet.
NYSE:KODKShort
by RyanMartin
High - Low Bollinger Bands These work better than the standard Bollinger Bands for setting extreme ranges. What I use these for is to use an oscillator to find an buy / sell signal then take that to the H L Bollinger bands and mark the spot. Most of the time, you will find that the price does not exceed this spot for the duration (length) of the H L Bollinger bands. This makes them good for doing Credit Spreads such as Put Vertical Spreads and Call Vertical Spreads. Since the price will normally not exceed the bands at the extreme point, the trader can profit from the time decay and other factors.
AMEX:SPY
by SpreadEagle71
Reaffirming short from Dec 20, more trouble ahead for BTCAs I stated on 12/20, it was pretty much impossible for BTC to not sink further and significantly. Though it did have a short rebound for X-mas that was destined to be short lived. BTC is only down 7.25% since I made my prediction but with what the 3 hour through 2 week indicators show is trouble. The shorter 4 and 6 hour indicators show a reversal underway following this slight recovery. The one and two day MACDs have still not bottomed out; and worst of all, the 1week and 2week MACDs are looking like they've peaked. This would be their first downward movements since Aug/Sept when we were at 1500CNY/235USD. The StochRSI at 1week is showing its first downward cross since the early Nov. drop as well I would NOT take this lightly. I'm still optimistic in the medium-term and I'd be very surprised if prices got anywhere near that low, but January could get really cold, really fast. If you are still in BTC I would have your alarms set and be ready to trade or at least hedge with a put option or two. If you are out, just don't get back in too quickly, it can be tempting to see the 2-hour MACD/RSI going positive and panic-buy, but I'd advise against it. 1 day indicators should be able to show us the way when it is time to return.
BShort
by RyanMartin