NFLXNow is the point (post-ER) I'd look to enter puts on NFLX .. Falling wedge still in tact on larger scale .. 1D / 1W / 1M timeframes show.
Names such as NFLX , META .. already sold off and likely have bottomed.
Puts
Citigroup: Low Risk Puts TradeRight now the Puts for Citi expiring months out are very cheap and if we look slightly OTM we can see a put option expiring Mar 17th at the strike of $42.5 trading at under 40 cents. I could easily buy a bunch of these at a low risk and just see how it goes and that's what i will be doing. On the other end of things i will be hedging against my overall bearish stance by buying 5% of the amount of puts i buy in calls in the form of the Mar 17th strike of $50 calls selling for under $1.71 a piece.
ENPHShorts are starting to look yummy again now on the weekly candles..
I will post AAPL as well , some names look as if we're set to sell a lot further once again.
November Midterms + Bear Market Rally I believe we'll see a ferocious rally that will shock everyone and make everyone bullish again - but this will just be a bear market rally (this is my thinking unless we break below 800B)
There is still a very good chance we continue down towards 500B MC and sit there for the next 12-18 months but I am not leaning too heavily on the short side at the moment.
The democrats need something on their side, they don't have the market - everything comes down to whether they raise rates at the next meeting.
100bp points increase = market dump
75bp points increase = market dump
50bp points increase = market rally's hard
Even the most bearish people agree we're due for a rally - even if it is a bear market rally - if we do get this rally it'll be the last one until we go into a long bear market/depression (this will be your last chance to exit your trades in crypto/equities)
DAL Delta Air Lines Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought DAL at my last call:
then you should know that looking at the DAL Delta Air Lines options chain ahead of earnings, I would buy the $35 strike price in the money Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$1.79 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Bear flag on SPY WeeklySpy is looking weak right now. This huge spike-up couldn't hold this morning. It has respected this up trend line for 3 weeks now. I doubt this up line will hold another week. We may even see it collapse this week. The daily chart is just as ugly. I expect a big move to the downside is coming in the near future. buyers are drying up. Green volume is down. We will see what this week has in store, however I think we're headed further south.
APPL APPLE BEARISH DIAMOND CONT.It appears to me that a bearish diamond pattern is coming to an end - based on the qqq's direction and the overall sentiment on the direction of the entire market I would wager that its going to eventually (soon) break the lower purple line (140.15) which represents a heavy volume/price area. As you can see that level has been an area of strong adherance throughout the entire diamon thus far. It is possible that the pattern will make one more small push to the upside towards the $145 level however that pop should be short lived.
Overall PT 1 is $135.64
PT 2 - 131.04
Both the 1/20/23 $140 PUT strike as well as the 2/17/23 $140 put strike have heavy open interest and look like a safe bet with plenty of time. However I do think the trade can be exited for profits well before those expirations.
Nike: 3 Black Crows with Hidden Bearish Divergence Earnings PlayNike is yet to release their earnings but they will be releasing them tomorrow and i'm anticipating that whatever they are will result in a downwards move towards the $65 area; I will be playing this move via Buying of the January and February $80 Puts and Selling the $100 January 20th calls.
DOCU DocuSign to test its last supportIf you haven`t shorted DOCU DocuSign, Inc. here:
Then looking at the DOCU DocuSign options chain, i would buy the $45 strike price Puts with
2022-11-18 expiration date for about
$3.90 premium.
Yes, i think it can test its last support this year.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
WMT Walmart Inc. Options After The EarningsLooking at the WMT Walmart Inc. options chain after the earnings, i would buy the $145 strike price Puts with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$3.65 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
COSTHigher lows are being formed on Costco although it seems that this one could continue to fall, not much was able to be done above 533 on it which was a major resistance.
ORCL Oracle Corporation Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the last breakout before the earnings:
Then you should know that looking at the ORCL Oracle Corporation options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $78 strike price Puts with
2022-12-30 expiration date for about
$2.49 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPX January 24th 3400 PredictionIn the chart above I have provided a quick prediction if averages and history is anything to go by. Taking away from the last three falls seen since the start of this bear market. All averages were estimated by using a simple mean.
1. Time of Drop Data: 51, 52, 59 = Mean of 54 Days
2. Percent of Drop Data: -14.77%, -17.87%, -19.30% = Mean of -17.31%
DOCU DocuSign Options Ahead Of EarningsIf you haven`t shorted the speculative bubble:
or the potential support test:
Then you should know that looking at the DOCU DocuSign options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $42.5 strike price Puts with
2022-12-16 expiration date for about
$2.76 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
S SentinelOne Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the S SentinelOne options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $19 strike price Calls with
2023-3-17 expiration date for about
$1.40 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
XPEV XPeng Inc Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the XPEV XPeng Inc options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $10 strike price Calls with
2023-3-17 expiration date for about
$0.76 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Head & Shoulders ???I
see a head and shoulders forming on the 4 hour time frame. Curious if we hit the levels and see what happens from there.
C+H into H+S as left shoulder is the top right side of the CupThis particular formation is something I seldom experience in my daily chart readings, but when it arises tends to guarantee a profit given this entry. First time I ever saw this I questioned, can two patterns be combined? I would have to agree. Proper confirmed entry would be at 328, as soon as I witnessed the potential first indication of a reversal of trend, a lower high in a previous uptrend. Another thing that added conviction was the appearance of larger than the other wicks in the formation of the H+S specifically that right shoulder. I entered Friday in this situation because of the conviction I had in regard to experiencing this formation previously. 5 min time frame is my preference for day trades. Hope this helps.
VRM Vroom Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the VRM Vroom options chain, i would buy the $1 strike price Calls with
2022-11-18 expiration date for about
$0.10 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
A look at $SPYHere is a look at $SPY since the beginning of this year.
It looks to me like were in the last leg of this rally, about to finish w5 right at the months long DTL, as we approach a bunch typical w5 fib levels, the A=C 1:1 extension of the oct 13-nov 1 swing, and the 200 MA. The daily RSI is also approaching overbought territory.
If we get a rejection at the 410-415 level, i expect we'll start another months long trek down to the low 300's, probably somewhere around 320-340.
323 is the 50% retracement of the entire post covid rally and 320 is a 100% retracement from the sept 2020 low.
Some long dated 400 or 410 puts may pay out really well if bought above 400. A mistake i've made in the past is jumping in too early, so it would be wise to wait for a confirmation of rejection before going hamtaro.
Counterpoint
If we can break past this year long DTL, the equation obviously changes. If we somehow cross 430 convincingly, i would become a lot more bullish on SPY.
JD Options Ahead of EarningsLooking at the JD options chain ahead of earnings, i would buy the $47 strike price in the money Calls with
2022-11-18 expiration date for about
$8.50 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
All set to retest covid lows?Once it breaks below 72 and stays below it, then look for it to retest covid lows before the end of the next year.
$COST Short Idea - First target 465Market has been rallying but today seemed suspect and pop in VIX implies smart money possibly hedging under the hood.
Time to start looking for hedges / short opportunities , whether we get a large move down or just a pullback before going higher, IMO in the near term we see some selling.
Costco is at trend line resistance and therefore I see it as a good hedge/ short candidate. Also at the top of the BB , implying as a mean reversion trade we at least see 495, with 465 being the max profit taking level for me.
For the less risk adverse can trade a 525/530 call credit spread or a 525/520 put debit spread, although all out short / long put is also an option ... I'm looking at DEC opex.
Cheers - Frisco
