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MARKET ALPHA - SPY UPDATEAMEX:SPY For those that are following this chart... You would have been well aware of the weakness the market was showing overall. After a bounce higher, we were never recovering on our Laguerre RSI. The explosive move to the downside today was flagged by the weakness in that indicator. I would totally have posted yesterday but It was my girlfriends birthday so I was getting everything ready for that. Stay safe out there in there in this market. It could be the beginning of the market finally rolling over.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jakelikesstocks
$UPS trade the box breakout Darvas MethodPossible good short idea with a break below the box $189/188 zone. I like the R/R on the short side with a volume pocket indicating a possible free fall to $180 .... Juicy Bulls have been defending this spot however and could also move back up towards top of the box. Watch for a break to the upside to go long. Short side invalidated if box holds. Essentially Nicolas Darvas method (box break out trading) Great book if you haven't read it. Alerts set :)
NYSE:UPSShort
by FriscoTrades
Analyzing My Part Time Employer - UBERNYSE:UBER Is a great way to make money part time, especially if you can do it to invest that money in to the market. Why do I do Uber? That's simple... I do not trade with money I cannot afford to lose. I love investing but I also love paying my debts. Unlike China... ok that was pretty weak. Anyway... This demonstrates buying the wrong break out and what can happen if you are caught in that zone. The strength looks good with a massive upside especially in an economy where work culture is beginning to shift dramatically and the gig economy is becoming more of a household choice rather than a regular side job. I am long on $UBER as long as regulations stay in favor of the gig economy, but is imperative that we break above our upper wedge resistance for a more sustained breakout move.
NYSE:UBERLong
by jakelikesstocks
2
UPST: Pullback in progress (ON AN UPTREND)UPST: pullback in progress ~Ever since it opened in feb at 44 bucks, it has been growing fast and is at 270 rn ~The uptrend we are in now is in the midst of a pullback and is a good replica of the one on Aug 18-20 ^^Support zone 1 at 260-263: should bounce here to around 276 resistance before going back down to a PT: 255 ~I would play puts in parts Part 1 with a PT: 262.50 Part 2 entry at the bounce to 276 with a PT of 255 ~After we confirm a bounce off 255 support, swing long 3 weeks out
NASDAQ:UPST
by CheckMatted
1
Potential Head and Shoulders Put Options PlayI originally entered this at the 88.6% Retrace with the thought that it could be a bullish bat with divergence and while it did pump 32 percent from the PCZ it did not come close to my normal Bat target yet. But while holding my position on this stock i noticed that the price action actually looked a little like a Head and Shoulders so i decided to take profit and buy some puts. So the next step for us after entering these puts would be to wait and see if the macd crosses bearish again and invalidates our bullish divergence then we may see lower lows to fib extensions like the 1.618. I would not recommend shorting this stock as that is dangerous but instead buying some puts that are a couple months from expiration would be the safer route.
NASDAQ:DADAShort
by RizeSenpai
BA needs to Bounce and Soon!Unpopular Opinion BA - Looks weak. - Needs more good news and less bad news. :rolling_eyes: - Needs to stay above the moving averages. - Could drop to $202 - Worse: Could drop to $192.65 - Worst: Could drop to close the gap near $158.10 (Market would literally have to crash. Seems less likely.) I'm not posting this to discourage...just keep your eyes open. BA is the government's baby, they won't let it die...plus there are bulls waiting at multiple levels below. Keep this in the back of your mind just in case. It's September and if it's like the last couple of years, the market will slow down and eventually turn into "Red October." Meanwhile, trade the trend lol
NYSE:BAShort
by PerCent_Investments
Spy Puts - "The Bunny Hop"This trade idea was made by studying the current pattern of how the SPY has been bouncing on the 50 ema while remaining above the 200 ema in regular intervals. I'll call this the "Bunny Hop". This is significant because it's a sign of the stock market overheating. If you look through history, the majority of bull runs are spent bouncing across the 200 EMA with slow and steady growth which has been a good area to buy. Considering that the market is going parabolic, it only makes sense to look for opportunities to be bearish. What comes up must come down, and what goes parabolic, must crash. There's also economic factors that play into this. To start off, I wanted to look through history and see how many times we've been in a similar situation, I found 8. I admit that there was a bit of subjectivity in picking these because some situations were similar, but had larger time differences than the current bull run. Using each of those instances, I measured several things as if I had an omniscient point of view that new exactly when to long and short. 1. How many times we bounced. 2. Average days spent going up from the 50 ema and average days spent going down if you were to immediately switch positions. 3. Average percent gained in both directions. 4. The win rate of each side. 5. How things ended after breaking the pattern. I averaged out all the instances and came up with an average long of 23 days with an average short of 11 days. I then back tested each instance by blindly going long at the 50 ema for the average days up and switched to going short right after. Longs generally had win rate around 75%, but the shorts would only win about 50% because they had less time to come true. After adding some rules, the short win rate improved to 68%. 1. You can only open shorts at the top of the range (or close to it). 2. You must also be at or past the average long date (23 days), not before. 3. The short position must be held for 18 days. 4. You must close your short once you've hit the 50 ema (or close to it). 5. If the 50 ema was skipped and it bounced again, you'd have to open another short once it reaches the top of the range. All instances: Let's also talk about the federal reserve. Since Covid, they've drastically dropped interest rates to .25% and have been stimulating the economy with 120 billion every month by buying bonds. The point of this is to try and boost employment levels by making debt more accessible and keeping businesses afloat. The issue however is inflation. If you take a look at the Producer Price Index along with the Consumer Price Index, it's clear that inflation is going parabolic due to all this printing. If the fed doesn't control these inflation levels soon, there's going to be a less buying due to high prices and company earnings will start to tank. So we don't get to this point, they'll raise interest rates and stop the quantitative easing. They've said this will happen in 2023, but in order to do so gently, they'll begin tapering a year earlier. This could be anywhere from this month to early 2022, but once it begins, I suspect we'll see a 5-10% correction. Back to the idea, it's pretty simple. Total average time up along with average time up for this current overheating is 23-27 days. At this point, we find a short ONLY if we're at the top of the range which we hold for 18 days unless we hit the 50 day ema in which we sell (or close to it). Since the average amount of bounces is 4 and we're currently on 6 (only one time has reached 7), you could hold it past the 50 ema, but that's a bit greedy so do so at your own risk. I personally went long this month, but I don't plan on doing so again until we see our correction. My next target dates are from Sept 10th - 15th. If the requirements in this post are met, then I'll open another short position. Last trade I did on this was August 13th which I sold on August 19th for a 50% ROI. This was done by buying deep ITM 1 month DTE puts. Since option IV generally goes higher when things crash, I was able to sell for a higher premium when volatility increased. The reason I'm not doing long options at the 50 ema btw is because of the volatility spike which results in a higher option premium so you can substitute that part with leveraged etfs or regular longs. Win rate so far: 1/1
AMEX:SPY
by PlayerNonZero