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Can the Market Sell Off? These Indicators Say Maybe...AMEX:SPY , CME_MINI:ES1! I was surprised to see in the indicators lining up in this way. If you look at the previous times I've marked on the chart, we saw some pain following a 0 cross of the top indicator in addition to the action in the lower indicator. I think people may feel caught off guard leading to some volatility but if this is the case, I would be surprised to see a dip lower than what we just experienced. Although that is very possible at these levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by jakelikesstocks
VZ short put, Nov 19VZ is into a level of tested demand Sold 42 DTE, Nov 19, 11.59% AROI, 4.24% from underlying price Yield at strike is a decent 4.78% which is way over the US10Y hurdle rate by 3x It's pushing below the Feb 2021 spike low, but it seems to be very passive selling to me the past 6 months. Lots of back filling and retracing to push lower. Like a robot is just refreshing the offer lower. Trend on the daily is absolutely Down. But it's into Previous demand and 53.40 level is where I see -1 sigma value where algos could step in to buy. I don't mind being long VZ outright, but I like the idea of bidding for 52.50 even better. Because if it goes to 51.55 I split the difference. It's a down day into new lows and that's the best time to sell put premium, so I did.
NYSE:VZ
by claypuzzle
1
D short put 70, 42 DTESold D 70 strike, 4.2% from underlying for 11.55% AROI 42 DTE. Dividend at the strike is 3.6% I'm not in weekly demand here to initiate the trade, which would be proximal at 70. But It has found some support at the -1 sigma range level and going sideways. And since this is a Theta decay, there's no telling how long it can stay sideways and expire a put. I've passed on many opportunities to grab 9 to 12% and thought price could move lower, but it just went sideways for 2 months, and left good premium on the table. Not great, but not terrible either. I'm thinking it gets stuck sideways at the 72.75 support level. The hourly has pushed up and found top of the local range at 75. So maybe it goes sideways for a couple weeks without going down to test 70, which I fully think it will. I doubt it can stay much below 70 for a long duration over about 2 days because the dividend would be over 2x what the US10Y yield is at that point. And I don't think the US10Y gets over 1.7 without the Fed coming in to smash it back down artificially.
NYSE:D
by claypuzzle
1
OHI Short Put Nov 19Sold OHI short put 42 DTE, Nov 19, 28 strike 5.72% from underlying price, 15.52% AROI Assignment yield at strike is 9.57%, so I'd be happy with that. Price is reacting to a zone where buyers have rallied from before. So I'm just at the Nov 2020 lows on strike. I think about if I would've just bought OHI last Halloween and held it for 10% cash payout. I'd be right back to par today on capital value, but 10% more cash. UGH, I regret not being more aggressive last year. If OHI doesn't stick the landing below 28, then I'm happy with 15% AROI also and an extra 5% Already have a bag of OHI in the Rollover IRA, but this is a taxable trade. I like the high dividend yield, but with the whole Evergrande bullshit and Debt ceiling FUD, I am reluctant to take outright long positions, as is probably every fund manager in the world. Overall, I think it's an asymmetric trade to the upside where I'm being paid 5% extra AROI to bid.
NYSE:OHILong
by claypuzzle
14
MARKET ALPHA - SPY UPDATEAMEX:SPY For those that are following this chart... You would have been well aware of the weakness the market was showing overall. After a bounce higher, we were never recovering on our Laguerre RSI. The explosive move to the downside today was flagged by the weakness in that indicator. I would totally have posted yesterday but It was my girlfriends birthday so I was getting everything ready for that. Stay safe out there in there in this market. It could be the beginning of the market finally rolling over.
AMEX:SPYShort
by jakelikesstocks