Puts
UNH - United Healthcare Overpriced?United Healthcare is trading between the upper Bollinger bands and upper Keltner channel bands and it couldn't be at a better time. The topic of the affordable care act is now making headlines as Republican-led states and the Trump administration voice their case to the Supreme Courts today, claiming that the Affordable Care Act Mandate is unconstitutional. While the outcome of this case is still pending and may not have an impact on the stock, United Healthcare has been known to react whenever there is a potential change in how Americans receive healthcare. Today, President elect Joe Biden made a speech in favor of keeping and protecting the affordable care act. Let's see if any of these recent events surrounding the affordable care act have an effect on United Healthcare's stock over the next few days.
Just looking at the charts, my opinion is that the stock is overpriced. The stock is trading higher relative to the exponential moving average on the chart. So, any news related to the Affordable Care Act supreme court case could encourage a sell off.
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SPY - Bearish VibesHey Traders, I usually don't like going against the grain... especially when the SPY has gained nearly 30 points this week alone. But my trader's intuition is telling me that it's moving too fast and I am starting to get bearish vibes. Taking a look the chart above, you can see that as of today, the SPY has moved across the Keltner Channelin a matter of 4 trading days. Looking at the past three times the SPY crossed across the Keltner Channel, it took an average of about 14 trading days, or roughly 3 weeks. Based on where SPY is trading today, my opinion is that SPY will attempt to break out above its recent resistance level of 354.00... but I don't think it will. SPY has over extended past its moving averages by so much that I think it will regress towards the 8 EMA. The stock market is pumped due to the election...but once the count is over... I think the bulls will be taking profits and selling the news.
Again, this is just my intuition and I could be wrong, but I am going to stick to my guns and flag this idea with a Short bias.
PUT/CALL RATIO EQUITY MARKET WARNING SIGNALHello,
Here I've analyzed the PCCE (Put/Call Ratio Equities) in the monthly time frame.
Something extremely concerning is taking place for the coming months. We are close to hitting .45 on the put/call ratio which is in extremely overbought territory. What this means is when we are in this level, all of the buying power in the market is already in the market. We need to blow off steam before we can continue higher. Typically we can expect extreme volatility in the coming months after the ratio gets to this level. I've marked out historic times where price got to this level to add clarity to the chart.
We've already sold off 10% in September when we almost touched. Now we are lower and can possibly touch .45 this month, if that does. Cash may gain value.
USI:PCCE
AMD Major Bear Swing Target $55 AMD one of the best performers of the year hit a 2.272 fib extension on the monthly previous swing in '06-'08
Bearish divergence formed at that extension perfectly on multiple time frames Weekly, Daily and 4 hr.
Could have a head and shoulders top/into a descending triangle possibly with a measured move of around $ 59-53
Fuck ur calls bruh not financial advice these are just my thoughts
SPY HNS ShortSWING TRADE AMEX:SPY
Head And Shoulders Pattern on the Daily Chart. Enter if significant break of the neckline + news.
Looking for puts around 325-330 strike price. Depends of when the neckline is broken.
Target 1 : 320 Resistance
Target 2 : 313 Supply Zone - Half Off
Target 3 : 300 Resistance - Half Off
Target 4 : 290 Resistance - Close position
CVX breaks 13 Day EMA and heads for the 21 Day EMAMuch like most stocks, Chevron NYSE:CVX didn't have a good month of September this year, but it looks like things might be turning around. Looking at the daily chart above, CVX, as been trying to break past the 8 EMA average throughout the last month but found little success until yesterday. Today the price broke through the 13 day EMA. As the stock heads towards the 21 day EMA, one of two things can happen. It can pull up to it and continue down or it breaks past the 21 day EMA and continues going up. Rather than trade directionally, option traders should consider selling put credit spreads. Although this way cap the upside, it also limits your downside .
Rising wedge in accordance with SPY and FuturesLooks like we are completing another rising wedge and futures have now touched the bottom support of their previous rising wedge which would indicate we are going to see another sizable drop. Futures have again created another smaller rising wedge. By retesting the previous support and now holding as resistance, this confirms the previous rising wedge hypothesis.
TSLA - UP or DOWN?If there's one stock I had to name for being the most unpredictable, it's TESLA ( NASDAQ:TSLA ). This rather volatile stock is expected to have some pretty big moves going into market close today as the company will be holding their annual shareholder meeting at 4:30 p.m. ET.
...But wait...there's more!
Once the meeting is over, the company will immediately follow up with their highly anticipated Battery Day event, which will be used to show those in attendance what's new with TSLA batteries and what improvements could be coming to make their batteries more energy efficient.
So what does this mean for the stock?
Well, for one, TSLA is a volatile stock, so major events like these... only increase implied volatility since everyone is expecting a big move either up or down. Second, The stock is trading dead smack in the middle between its recent highs and lows... the lows being most recent of the two.
So, taking advantage of volatility is the way to go. Options traders can benefit from inflated options prices due to higher implied volatility by being option sellers. Strategies like Short Iron Condors, feature both, a capped risk and reward profile. Setting your strike selections near the recent highs and lows could be one way to trade TSLA... but the problem is that the inner strike are so wide making the risk to reward ratio very high. You can also sell credit spreads.
To trade directionally, means to either go long calls or puts... Since Volatility is high, these strategies tend to be more expensive near major announcements. If you nail it, good for you. If you dont, then know that you can't lose more than what you paid for. If you still want to trade directionally, but want to minimize the risk, you can do debit spreads. This involves buying an option which will serve as your directional trade, and then selling that same type of option a few strikes further away to bring in some credit. This option might be good if you think that implied volatility will only increase after the announcement.
Usually, the day following a major events, as with earnings announcements, options have been known to experience "volatility crush," in which the implied volatility drops after the news announcement. A drop in implied volatility can affect an option's price even more so than the movement of the underlying stock price. Therefore, directional neutral trades such a long straddles, will need to have a large move in the underlying in either direction to outpace the potential drops in implied volatility the next day.
Which strategy will you choose? Remember...choosing not to trade can also be a wise trading strategy.
Calling the top in the shipping industry (UPS, FedEx, STMP) In this video I've shown 3 independent forms of technical analysis that make a strong case that the top is already in for these 3 stocks ! In general, I'm bearish the overall market so wouldn't be surprised to see these correct significantly.
Let me know what you guys think ! Always open to comments and critiques.
Options Idea: Sell The September 18, 2020 Put @ $1.3ALRM seems to have stopped its downward trend. It has recovered the EMA 8 and is heading back to EMA 20 territory. I sold a Sep 18 2020 55.0 Put @ 1.3 with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next few days or weeks.
20-ALRM-01
Opening Date: August 20, 2020
Expiration Date: September 18, 2020
DTE: 29
IV: 44%
IV Percentile: 37%
Odds of Winning: 68%
Win: > 53.70 @ Expiration
Loss: < 53.70 @ Expiration
Chart Legend
The green area represents 100% win zone.
The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
The red area is loss.
1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Sell Calls and Sell PutsGood evening all,
Our levels have stayed steady. I believe that the price will not move much the upcoming month. If you would like to add revenue to your positions sell covered calls and puts. You can collect a nice premium while we wait for movement later on.
PLUG power price action forecast for next week!Our cycles analysis indicates the following forecast for price action this upcoming week! Will be utilizing 10$ strike Put and 13$ strike Call options for 8/21 and 8/28, respectively!!
Ultimately headed to 22-25$ per share by end of September 2020 in our view!!
Let us know your views in the comments below!!
Bad Apple - AAPLAccording to the news, Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) shares sold off today as well as other tech stocks and supposedly dragged the S&P 500 down with them. As crazy as that sounds, I have come to accept that the markets are, as always, unpredictable. Banks stocks on the other hand were in the Green. Let's follow AAPL and see if the SPY continues to follow AAPL further down the rabbit hole. I would be interested to see if we pullback to the 21 EMA or if it blows past it. I am leaning long only because I think SPY wants to retest the all time high of 339.08, and more than likely, that will require all of the heavy hitters, APPL included to pull higher to get there.
short P&G in the supply zone Here's the trade setup
1. PG is in a supply zone denoted in the red colour
2. Earnings is in a couple days which makes for an easy catalyst to turn this around from all time highs
3. There's a triangle pattern formed over past 4 months (see attached link) and these tend to have aggressive breaks
4. I am bearish the general market so that should further support a bearish move
5. Since brokerages are raising price targets in a supply zone, I would like to take a contra call
Strategy: bought october month puts @ 125 strike price for a target in the yellow zone. But, one can always be a little more greedy and wait for the move all the way down to the demand zone (green)
SPCE Daily Higher timeframes show SPCE going to $29.00. If we can hold $25 then SPCE will go to $29 but on the lower timeframes I can see a pull back to around $23.60.
SPY analysis here is a brief analysis of SPY 1D chart.. big week of earnings ahead, let's see what is in store for the market!
How I see SPY Playing Out in the Near TermI recently read the first half of technical analysis of the financial markets, and I noticed that SPY had formed a perfect double bottom reversal pattern. Additionally, SPY has broken overhead resistance at 312-313, returned back and it acted as support. Now we will see a final push upward to fill the gap near 323. This may continue higher to close the last gap overhead from the February 19 drop.
In the near term, I think we have a bit of a melt up (not like tesla though), to sucker in more FOMO and buyers. Then we see a 15% pull back to close the gap below at 280.....Queue round 2 of fiscal stimulus, and go long with 1/15/21 calls SPY 400, QQQ 300, TSLA
Looking back at major movements in SPY I have noticed an odd pattern of dates that are 9th, 19th, 29th being the beginning of a major reversal in trends.
Feb 19th, we all know that date, beginning of free fall
(more dates below)
Not financial advice, more for my own record keeping and being held accountable for ideas. Happy to discuss the book if anybody is interested, I have found it quite useful as of late.
Tesla- Waiting for a pullbackTSLA soared to all time highs this week... and though it would be fun to jump in on the action, it just feels like Iwould be entering no man's land to be bullish on TSLA at such a high price. I am going to be watching for a pull back somewhere between the 13 and 21 EMA over the next 7 to 10 days. What goes up, usually comes down. This is one that I will be waiting for in the days to come.
