Ford (F) possibly going to $2.80Ford seems to be finishing up a wave 4 triangle pattern and forming smaller wave 1 and 2 with possible short price target of $2.80.
Puts
Possible larger Wave 4 (Wave B short) for Tesla (TSLA)Looks like we are in Wave 4 of some sort with an ABC correction. Currently in a Wave B channel with possible short opportunity when price action breaks the channel or RSI which ever comes first, to the $600-650 area.
AXP - Pennant formation short setupAXP - One from trading room looking for a break of $85. Looks good so far! Could consider the $85 October Puts currently $11.00 . Stop 97.22 would consider.
SPX SPY Confirmed Entering Wave Three Down (Edited Repost)Wanted to add my wave count for the rally we saw from 3/23 lows. We have formed a large ABC zigzag down from the ATH's in Feb, down to the 3/23 lows, then up to the 297 level (A and B). We are now entering wave C down, which can be broken up into subwaves.
Inside of the large ABC zigzag's wave C, this wave three should take us to 258 levels according to the length of wave one from out recent high at 297 to the 279 range.
There may be some support speedbumps along the way, 285, 279, 272, but 258 is the target according to basic elliot wave analysis and it has been extremely accurate lately.
Entered shorts during wave two up, and finalized my positions at 289.5.
We deviated from the waveform last night, so we could see a near straight down drop here today as correction.
Good luck all!!!
MLNX Short. Bearish divergence I opened short position:
MLNX put 21 JAN 2022 $120 @ .2250
MLNX put 21 Jan 2022 $115 @ .20
Buying power is weak and the price action is going sideways.
Apple - End of Wedge - Bullish or Bearish? Either Way Big BreakNASDAQ:AAPL
Apple is at the end of the wedge between several support and resistances. Watch on the lower intervals and wait for the break AND re test. I am thinking it may break down to $250-$260 at least.
AMD PUT IdeaMy idea:
so based on several factors and signals I looked into (not shown), I simplified into what I see happening. I know there is no strict correlation with AMD and SPX, however, it can be noted that as SPX grows, investors seem to be more "open" to drift away from value stocks into growth stocks to acquire quicker and higher profit. Every since the like of Amazon, Apple, Netflix etc, it can very easily be shown that the society of investors are more open to risk in this pre-technological era as we move closer and closer to a more dominant technological era.
That being said, based on this chart, my idea is both the SPX and AMD (along with MANY others) will have a significant drop coming in the near future, as investors come to terms that the Feds intervention wont be enough to overcome the "iceberg" of problems that are arising. Each on their own does not seem to be significant with the fed intervention, but once you realize the relation that they will have against each other, each "problem" becomes intertwined in the other, from the "iceberg beneath the water" (what many can or do not want to see right now).
With every rally there will be numerous day and swing traders trying to jump on the band wagon of each of these rallies to catch a quick profit. That's why I believe we are seeing such volatilty intraday within the markets. These rallies seem prominently based on emotions and rumors, which day and swing traders are infamously known to be attracted to.
please like and share if you enjoyed this idea/opinion...feel free to like if you disagree as well :p , look forward to a discussion.
SPY Trade IdeaPossible rising wedge forming, a continuation pattern in a down trend or reversal in an up.
Today felt "toppy" IMO, long weekend ahead, lets see what Monday brings... If wedge is validated this oughta make some put holders happy, but one more impulse up before more down... unless JPOW printer go brrrrr.
Looking at ~$264 for local low and ~$293 for top.
Added a few potential outcomes based on major support/resistance horizontals.
The low of $156 (although hard to imagine it going that low) is the 2007 top.
Cheers!
AAL Watched as AAL shot up to a big supply zone. Tagged it and rejected right away. Was a quick move but was able to get some good fills on puts right away for a nice swing back down after rejection.
Think it will bounce around for a bit but no trade plans until price drifts back towards either of the demand/supply zoneS. If supply, since it was such a very brief tag, I think it can hold up. But, then again with the stock being so beaten could even see a gap and go over it.
INTCTook an intraday short trade today when INTC entered (and overshot a bit) a first primary supply level I was targeting. Watched price action and was able to get a good fill on some puts for a nice gain today.
From here I think we continue down to demand level for "b" and then reverse upward towards "c." With the craziness of this market, will watch the up move within "c" as there is potential the "c" wave could become an impulse wave. I don't think this will be the case as I still think the market needs to revisit some downside.
SPY 2020 TargetsOn our way down to the final support floor of the untested double top from 2000 and 2007
NCLH - Fibonacci retracement shows first level of resistanceNYSE:NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) recently ran into resistance as sellers prevented the stock from going past the .236 fibonacci retracement level earlier this week. Furthermore, recent options activity shows bearish sentiment with NCLH put/call volume ratios of 2.07 This means for every 1 call that trades, there are 2 puts are being traded. The Put/call open interest ratio is a little more narrow at 1.20. (Ratios were taken at the time of when this article was written and are subject to change).
With the prospects of receiving a bailout is not looking good for the cruise line industry, there are mixed signals from the White House that leave many investors wondering whether to buy the stock now, or wait for another drop in the stock. Many cruise lines have suspended all operations for 30 to 60 days. So we will be monitoring the impact that has on the stock.
The White House is expected to pass the massive CARES act, which may provide many U.S. companies the eligibility to receive loans or loan guarantees from the Federal Government. The major cruise lines are not incorporated in the United States, which the President knows and mentioned last night that he would like to see them come to the United States... and that he wants to assist the cruise lines. <- You can see now why it's a toss up as to whether or not the cruise lines will receive financial aid from Federal Government.
Based on all the public information available, where do you think NCLH is heading? Up or Down?
A most interesting chart - rising on defense or return to 100?Walmart is supposed to be a defensive stock to buy when the market drops, but the charts show that price may head lower.
Reasons for weekly 115 puts (higher risk) or swing trade 110 puts (lower risk):
> In candle chart, green rectangle, you see a very bullish pattern between 2/27-3/2, and also a bullish engulfing candle on 3/6. However the volume directional moving index is low, suggesting this could be a rubberband effect that will not last.
> Chart shows daily resistance line, dotted red
> Between 2/21-2/25 (3 days), stochastic %K dropped from over 80 to under 20. The ensuing drop and quick rebound might give way to more downside --> look for RSI on daily to head back below 50.
> Simple moving averages are in descending order: 10<20<50<100. one caution, 20sma is flat.
> On weekly chart - 10sma is below 20sma and stochastic %D is below RSI. Price is testing 20sma.
You can watch 30m timeframe for more signals to open puts, such as RSI moving lower and 10sma crossing below 20sma. On daily watch for the same, and for resistance line to hold.
Trade near resistance - PUTS - Leave trendlines on your charts> I drew this red line in the middle of February, and it sill proves useful one month later. I would have liked TSLA to move up to 670 this morning (line on my chart) but I am not sure it will reach that high.
> Watch 30min chart - RSI will turn down from 50 line if selling increases. Also monthly chart shows stock may head lower to 10sma.
> Suggestions are weekly 580 or 600 puts, or 3/20 expiry 500 or 550 puts. Depends on how much capital you want in this trade; and keep a small position (even one is alright for a small account).
HDHD, spreads look weird on this one but im watching it below 212.5 with confirmation to 198 being 207.5
Head and Shoulders SPCE SetupPretty clear and clean head and shoulders. I anticipate a correction to the 20s. This ridiculous speculative run has gone on far too long...
Brrrr.Baby, it's cold outside.
Barstool Sports is really going to have to up their shilling of $yeti products in order to deal with the disgusting price structure, massive short interest, and global pandemic!
I picked some 3/27/2020 30$ puts for 1.29$, some 7/17/2020 25$ puts for 1.5$.
V - open weekly 200 puts - close before 1/30 earningsI bought 1/31 expiry 200 strike puts at $1.65. Reasons for trade:
1) 60min chart - 20sma in downtrend, 10sma below 20, and RSI still under 50.
2) daily chart - stock retesting up against 10sma.
3) 30min chart - RSI needs to stay below 50, and I am looking for %K stochastic to drop below RSI again, as confirmation of my trade.
4) Risk is low - exit on trade over 203.74, recent 60 min high. Risk goes up if stock opens much higher Wed, so keep trade size small.
5) Reward is high - if price hovers in this area IV will raise option value. If stock drops (see chart) option value gains at least 50%.
*** Close this position before earnings on 1/30 (after market close)
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio - Trade #3 - WES - Short Term PutTicker: WES (right side is XLE for comparative purposes on a weekly)
Position:
- Feb 21st Expiry
- 5x $20 Strike Puts (ITM) - delta = 0.60 - cost = $1.38/ contract
- 5x $18 Strike Puts (OTM) - delta = 0.19 - cost = $0.35/ contract
- Should the stock move to the initial target, the OTM options will be more than covered by the ITM options increase in premium
Profit Target/ Exit:
- Initial target = $18.00 (green line)
- Exit for the $20 strike puts is 2 closes above the daily 21 ema (white line), there is no stop for the $18 strike puts, therefore the full premium is at risk (hence the lower capital allocation)
Rationale:
- shorter term play on the relative weakness of the energy sector
- XLE (energy sector ETF) has displayed a bearish moving average cross and appears to be deteriorating, as well as several stocks within the sector have appeared in my screening process as potential candidates, one of which is WES
- smaller position size, with overall capital allocation only 3.8% of portfolio, so a relatively small trade, that even if it goes against us will do no long term damage to the overall portfolio and still offers a good opportunity for roughly a 70% gain (at initial target)
- WES does appear to be a little on the oversold side of things, so a bounce is certainly possible, this is why the stop is 2 closes above the daily 21 ema, as this should help to keep from being shaken out of the position prematurely
-TradingEdge
Low risk options trade - Buy FB 210 puts, 1/31 expiryEnter trade between 1/14-1/15. Please see the chart annotation, which provides notes on trade setup and trading plan. I bought these puts for $2.67 on Jan. 13. Will hold puts for $215 target as long as stock closes back below yellow trend line on chart, or until my stop loss is triggered. FB earnings are at the end of this month. I am expecting a pullback due to profit taking, and also higher implied volatility will increase option price. My stop loss at $2.30 provides very low risk since I bought puts at trend line resistance and do not expect it to go much higher. Your option entry and stop prices will differ from mine. Structure your exits to keep risk low. If stock runs up then candle will close over trend line, exit your trade and loss will be small.
