Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio - Trade #3 - WES - Short Term PutTicker: WES (right side is XLE for comparative purposes on a weekly)
Position:
- Feb 21st Expiry
- 5x $20 Strike Puts (ITM) - delta = 0.60 - cost = $1.38/ contract
- 5x $18 Strike Puts (OTM) - delta = 0.19 - cost = $0.35/ contract
- Should the stock move to the initial target, the OTM options will be more than covered by the ITM options increase in premium
Profit Target/ Exit:
- Initial target = $18.00 (green line)
- Exit for the $20 strike puts is 2 closes above the daily 21 ema (white line), there is no stop for the $18 strike puts, therefore the full premium is at risk (hence the lower capital allocation)
Rationale:
- shorter term play on the relative weakness of the energy sector
- XLE (energy sector ETF) has displayed a bearish moving average cross and appears to be deteriorating, as well as several stocks within the sector have appeared in my screening process as potential candidates, one of which is WES
- smaller position size, with overall capital allocation only 3.8% of portfolio, so a relatively small trade, that even if it goes against us will do no long term damage to the overall portfolio and still offers a good opportunity for roughly a 70% gain (at initial target)
- WES does appear to be a little on the oversold side of things, so a bounce is certainly possible, this is why the stop is 2 closes above the daily 21 ema, as this should help to keep from being shaken out of the position prematurely
-TradingEdge
Puts
Low risk options trade - Buy FB 210 puts, 1/31 expiryEnter trade between 1/14-1/15. Please see the chart annotation, which provides notes on trade setup and trading plan. I bought these puts for $2.67 on Jan. 13. Will hold puts for $215 target as long as stock closes back below yellow trend line on chart, or until my stop loss is triggered. FB earnings are at the end of this month. I am expecting a pullback due to profit taking, and also higher implied volatility will increase option price. My stop loss at $2.30 provides very low risk since I bought puts at trend line resistance and do not expect it to go much higher. Your option entry and stop prices will differ from mine. Structure your exits to keep risk low. If stock runs up then candle will close over trend line, exit your trade and loss will be small.
$COST ~ COSTCO~ SHORT SETUP USING PUT SPREAD~ #OptionsTradingMETHOD: Short COSTCO {price at entry ~ 292} via:
+2 VERTICAL COST 100 (Weeklys) 27 DEC 19 300/292.5 PUT @5.00 ;
Trading @ low IV after the earnings dump;
Decay helps if price < 294;
Sold high extrinsic put to buy high intrinsic put
STRATEGIES: Using COST day chart:
The 20/50 Mean looks set to make a big pink cloud after a long chart runup.
The Fisher Transform line signaling a continuation short.
The last earnings bailing of stock price turned out to last a few days.
TACTICS: The plan in terms of stock price:
STOP is price > 295 (MUST OBEY, Upside down R:R trade)
TGT1 288 to scale; TGT2 286.25 to exit (NO EARLY EXIT, Upside down R:R trade)
Consider scaling as pink cloud becomes large
We may let the Fisher Transform and 20/50 mean together take us out technically for whatever we get win or lose.
Will update in comments,
B3
d^.^b
SOXX - Further Weakness - Short Setup Semi-conductors are looking a bit precarious at this point, as you can see we appear to be in a serious of lower lows and lower highs, this is compounded by the falling momentum in the market as a whole.
This coupled with overall weak internals lead me to believe that further weakness is not out of the question, particularly if the price action is unable to break above the upper descending trendline.
Should the price fail at the upper trend, then a visit to the 55 ema or even the 89 ema is quite likely.
This would constitute a move lower of up to 5%.
*This trade setup is entirely dependent upon the price NOT breaking above this upper trendline.
- TradingEdge
GE Short Setup - 1:4 Risk to Reward / RISKYGE daily chart shows weakness. I am expecting a pullback to $10.50. I can buy some puts for this. However there's no reversal signal yet. If I wait for a confirmation, the risk to reward will be less. I have decided to buy the risk.
GE SHORT TRADE SETUP
Entry: 11.39
Stop-Loss: 11.60 (0.21)
Take-Profit: 10.56 (0.83)
Risk to reward: 1:3.95
Winning probability: Less than 40%
NOTE: I am not very comfortable with the stop-loss. During the trade, i can move it up to 1:2 Risk to reward. That's why I'm not going to risk more than 1% of my account.
Disclaimer: This is not an investment or financial advice. Please do not copy my trades.
Remember to follow me.
Trade safe,
Atilla Yurtseven
$SGEN Shorterm BearishHello Traders!
It looks like $SGEN has made a local top and will be headed for consolidation. Not to worry, I believe continued upside potential is favored. My plan includes stacking buy orders at $90-$75 with stops at $70. Do your own DD, and good luck!
Yo boy,
Pic
BYND Hail Mary TradeI'm doing this for shits and I bought 10 puts @ 60 exp Jan 17 2020 $1 each
If BYND drops to around $80 I'll profit $3 per put. If even lower. It'll be better.
Share lock up expires oct 29th but BYND may have a plan and they have had conservative guidance so its also possible that revenues beat and that pushes shares higher for awhile however valuation does seem kind of extreme on this. I may be wrong. I'm not a fundamentals guy.
SPY Put SpreadSPY Put spread strategy.
There are many things going on within the market. Rate cut odds are high if there is a letdown with no rate cut on the 28th the market will belly flop.
If ISM numbers are even worse next month then it'll flop. If china and the tariff situation gets worse because GDP numbers were poor in china and they may sour relations due to the trade war it'll bellyflop. Now I'm not saying we're gonna crash that's absurd, all I'm saying is there will be some volatility or pullback.
SPY Puts NOV 29 exp. 299/294
Cost is $1.52 x 10
Max gain will be $1 or 1.5 on each put.
Max loss is $500 if I'm dead wrong and we end up at like 303 within a few weeks.
Double divergence on OBV and RSI, WEEKLY and Daily.
Looks decent.
Heavily Short the $QQQ - I Believe Today's Move ReversesTomorrowNothing to be excited about with this rally. Same old empty promises by the administration, buy puts on the way up today and wait for the reversal tomorrow/end of week in my opinion.
Disclaimer: I take no responsibility for your losses. Trade at your own risk.
QQQ
SPX
IGV
AVLR Put SpreadPut Spread AVLR Cost 2.19
Max loss is $142 Max Gain is $190
Exp October 18 which maybe took long for this position but it looks like its run out of steam
RSI is leading it lower based on the price moves recently. It may sell off and reach $65.
TGT shorts could pay offTarget had big earnings boost with big gap up play. RSI getting way over extended, and its pulled away from the EMA's a good deal. I like this as a short position as well. Also looking for entry confirmation off 30m chart for a short swing as well as walmart. Keep on eye on what SPY is doing for these two.
Gold holding Trend. Up then down againGC still holding the trendline pretty well with a "zone" to match. Could be an easy entry. Loking for this to rise maybe overnight up into the trendline/zone with a drop to follow. Could see good prices on PUTs if this happens and catch it off the rise. Any positions held nust be patient. Trend is your friend "until the end"