IQ - IQIYILong IQ after the break back above support here.
Long Aug17 $25 call/Short Jul20 $41 call for $9.55.
Stop: $33.50
Target: $41.00
Puts
NVDA - NVIDIA (short term)If one was looking for a short term move, we could wait until we had a close on the 130m above $253.50 area.
There's a 3:1 risk/reward back up to ATHs.
Given that NVDA is a bit pricey, one could use put spreads or call spreads to capture a move here. Jul20 $250s also look playable.
JD - JD.comJD yet again offering up a long R:R setup after pushing up the first time.
I think we can look for a re-entry around 40.70 with a stop around 40.00. If you wanted a bit more bullish conformation, you could take the trade with price moving above the last two days' highs.
I'm looking at the Aug17 $40 calls, with the plan to roll up and out in time if JD starts to move. Earnings are also right before this expiration, something to take note of.
130m chart:
DAX Short. H&S, descending triangle, Elliot wave count BEARISHNow, there are several bearish patterns that have emerged in the DAX chart. The 5-wave count and the H&S pattern with a descending triangle are all very bearish signs showing the correction is not over yet, and there is still plenty of room to fall for the DAX.
Look to enter a trade after the break of the descending triangle pattern, which is also sitting at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which, when broken, will help accelerate the plunge. My price targets are somewhat conservative, although I am forecasting a large move. My price target 1 is simply at the 0.618 Fibonachi level, which is one of the more significant fib levels. I arrived at my price target 2 by applying the tendency for triangles to breakout to the size of their left boundary. If you are feeling pretty bon vi von, you could look to the 0.786 fib level for a possible target 3 at $24.01
This trade has multiple, strong pattern indicators showing it has a high probability, and using a few ticks above the lower triangle support pattern as a stop loss, it has a fantastic risk/reward ratio of 15 as well. This could take quite some time to develop, but things will move quickly once the 0.382 retracement / triangle support pattern is broken, so a OTM put option buy at that time could be quite profitable.
Weekend Quickie- Time to Pick Up Some Protection, Puts on the Q?Are there many reasons for the overall market to go higher?
Other than the resolution of U.S. and China trade concerns, there don't seem to be a lot of good reasons for the stock market to rise as a whole.
Back in March, traders were discussing "the most anticipated selloff of all time" as trade, political, and monetary fears were sending the market down off its highs.
Concurrently, traders were gearing up for a meteoric advance in prices as earnings came in strong.
Judging by the price action, these two theories are in vigorous, directly opposed but equal competition with each other, and as a result we can see the QQQ trading in a volatile stalemate.
Indeed, most earnings are coming in very strong, but with undertones of lackluster guidance. Guidance aside, market wisdom dictates that good reasons are needed for prices to climb (traders\investors often need good reasons to buy), but prices can fall on their own account.
Are there many reasons for the indices to head higher?
Are there many reasons for the indices not to fall? As uncertainty continues, traders are considering downside protection with puts or short positions on the market, even as upside bets are being made on certain stocks and sectors.
Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together.
Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
SPY Bearish Divergence MFI ;weekly resistance & top of TriangleSPY Bearish Divergence MFI ;weekly resistance & top of Triangle
NFLX waterfall about to happen. Bearish Possibility. My friend had pointed out a trade idea about AMZN almost completing the right shoulder and I thought that it looks very similar to a chart that I had seen today. Turns out NFLX looks the same. Pretty interesting that they have the same patterns at the same time. Time for PUTS?
Looking at OVERBOUGHT MU Friday 50$ Put sell tomorrow ITMMU is up 5.11% on china NEWS... We should see it open up below 50$
IWM ShortShorting some small-caps here as another hedge.
Bought 2x Apr20 $150 calls for $4.30.
Delta: 49
Max loss: $860
Stop Loss: Price at 151.50
Target: Price at $145.10
Again, I'll watch price action around the target to see if it wants to roll further. I might also take off half the position if we get a outsized, quick move right away.
DERM - Put Options Sold IV% for DERM options remains very high. I already have sold the 3/16 $25 Puts. I sold a couple more 3/16 $20 Puts. I will look for an opportunity to take partial gains on the $25P to reduce my overall risk exposure.
3/16 $20P @ $2.85
23 Days till expiration
DERM $27.22
D: -.0051
G: .0043
T: -.0011
V: .0008
IV: 245.42% (vs 49.92)
DERM - Selling Puts - Opened Limited Orders DERM - expect volatility. Overall, bullish outlook. Could have significant swings.
The options are so expensive right now it makes for an optimum to sell. I don't like either a credit call spread or any credit spread in this situation. Simply selling puts seems like the correct strategy.
I've placed a limited order to sell 3/16 $25 puts at $5.6, mid price between ask/bid. (current ask/bid is 5.2/6) I typically place limit orders at a more optimal price than mid-price, but the premium is so high I didn't feel the need to.
$5.60 premium (credit) pushes my break even (or buy price if the option is exercised) at $19.40. Based on the charts & overall bullish outlook, I feel pretty comfortable with that risk.
DERM 27.90
D = -.1892
G = .0716
T = -.0183
IV = 236.39% (vs. 49.29%)
Theoretical value is .43
Cautiously Bullish on SHOP by selling Put Credit SpreadsSell the Feb 16 SHOP 100/95 Put Credit Spread for $0.65 or better, for a 13% (not counting commissions) return within 35 days.
Stop loss should be if the spread increases to $1.30.
SHOP has held the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 high to Oct 17 low and is clearing the way for higher moves.
Playing it with selling a put credit spread and receiving $65 for every $5 wide contract sold, for a potential 13% Return on Risk over 35 days.
Happy Trading
Lindosskier
Trade Idea Of The Week MACYS INC (M)Forgot to post this yesterday, but we have been in this trade since Friday with some puts trying to ride this market during this large pullback. I am still going to post this because even with this bounce today I still think it has more room to fall.
Last week there was a huge turning point in momentum and the selling volume started to pick up. With the signs of the overall market weakening we decided to go bearish. We will ride this trade until the short term trend is broken on the 15minute/30minute candles.
Best of luck!
NTES may be easing higherSImilar to my OLED post, NTES found critical support early this session during market weakness. It's sitting right on key support as a convincing break here on a daily or weekly closing basis will send it to $300 or less.
Also, NTES saw significant Feb 9 Weekly Call buying yesterday with 1,000 lots going at each of the 320, 325, 330, and 340 levels.
I tend to stay at or near the money when entering Calls, especially weeklies. Not for everyone, but again, well defined risk levels right here where a "closing" break under 315 on the Daily chart negates this thesis. If that happens, consider switching to Puts with initial target at $300.
Above all, know your risk, know your levels, and trade with patience, dedication, and focus.
GILD - Naked PutsI like the looks of GILD. I'm selling puts to collect premium and maybe enter long position if the option is exercised.
1M:
1W:
QQQ BullPut spread ROI 47% and 3.2RRRReward 0.64
Cost = 2 - 0.64 = 1.36
Target ROI = 47%
Risk @SL = 0.92 when price hit $2 ITM
= 0.92 - 0.72 = 0.20
RRR = 0.64 / 0.20
= 3.2 : 1
long short position on ASM ASM
The stock ASM has been going through some cyclical change. Due to underperformance on the balance sheet side, the company broke its cyclical turn. I believe that there is still room to short. The best instrument to use would be put options with the strike price closest to the actual price, and the expiration at the earliest date given. If you go along the put option route I would suggest taking short positions because they have less risk, and if the stock drops more than the short position will outperform the put option. Be aware of the fact that the put option may be harmful to the portfolio because the stock is no longer driven by cyclical turns, therefore the stock can open at a different price, and options contracts are executed until the market opens, so if you get options when the market is closed you make be at risk for a loss if the stock opens at a different price. To hedge some of the risks from the short position you could be long positions if you feel the need to.
Continued downside for HOGHOG gapped down hard on earnings and rushed to fill ~50% of the gap. I am buying puts here looking for continued selling down to the 45 area. Full target is 45. I expect to take some profits and close half my position near our most recent lows - 46.50 area.
5 dollar is so close, so far. high volume on 5 strike puts give false read as bear bets. Wrong. New longs BTD take hedges.
$DIS Long Opportunity or Short Entry if It CrashesDisney recently announced positive news surrounding it's executives chain and has held a strong uptrend over the course of the last few months. If the stock breaks and closes above $112.86 there's a good opportunity to go long and follow the uptrend. If it breaks downward though, and closes below $111.12, then an opportunity for a credit spread or put position opens for a really short term trade due to the bullish bias.
