IWM ShortShorting some small-caps here as another hedge.
Bought 2x Apr20 $150 calls for $4.30.
Delta: 49
Max loss: $860
Stop Loss: Price at 151.50
Target: Price at $145.10
Again, I'll watch price action around the target to see if it wants to roll further. I might also take off half the position if we get a outsized, quick move right away.
Puts
DERM - Put Options Sold IV% for DERM options remains very high. I already have sold the 3/16 $25 Puts. I sold a couple more 3/16 $20 Puts. I will look for an opportunity to take partial gains on the $25P to reduce my overall risk exposure.
3/16 $20P @ $2.85
23 Days till expiration
DERM $27.22
D: -.0051
G: .0043
T: -.0011
V: .0008
IV: 245.42% (vs 49.92)
DERM - Selling Puts - Opened Limited Orders DERM - expect volatility. Overall, bullish outlook. Could have significant swings.
The options are so expensive right now it makes for an optimum to sell. I don't like either a credit call spread or any credit spread in this situation. Simply selling puts seems like the correct strategy.
I've placed a limited order to sell 3/16 $25 puts at $5.6, mid price between ask/bid. (current ask/bid is 5.2/6) I typically place limit orders at a more optimal price than mid-price, but the premium is so high I didn't feel the need to.
$5.60 premium (credit) pushes my break even (or buy price if the option is exercised) at $19.40. Based on the charts & overall bullish outlook, I feel pretty comfortable with that risk.
DERM 27.90
D = -.1892
G = .0716
T = -.0183
IV = 236.39% (vs. 49.29%)
Theoretical value is .43
Cautiously Bullish on SHOP by selling Put Credit SpreadsSell the Feb 16 SHOP 100/95 Put Credit Spread for $0.65 or better, for a 13% (not counting commissions) return within 35 days.
Stop loss should be if the spread increases to $1.30.
SHOP has held the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 17 high to Oct 17 low and is clearing the way for higher moves.
Playing it with selling a put credit spread and receiving $65 for every $5 wide contract sold, for a potential 13% Return on Risk over 35 days.
Happy Trading
Lindosskier
Trade Idea Of The Week MACYS INC (M)Forgot to post this yesterday, but we have been in this trade since Friday with some puts trying to ride this market during this large pullback. I am still going to post this because even with this bounce today I still think it has more room to fall.
Last week there was a huge turning point in momentum and the selling volume started to pick up. With the signs of the overall market weakening we decided to go bearish. We will ride this trade until the short term trend is broken on the 15minute/30minute candles.
Best of luck!
NTES may be easing higherSImilar to my OLED post, NTES found critical support early this session during market weakness. It's sitting right on key support as a convincing break here on a daily or weekly closing basis will send it to $300 or less.
Also, NTES saw significant Feb 9 Weekly Call buying yesterday with 1,000 lots going at each of the 320, 325, 330, and 340 levels.
I tend to stay at or near the money when entering Calls, especially weeklies. Not for everyone, but again, well defined risk levels right here where a "closing" break under 315 on the Daily chart negates this thesis. If that happens, consider switching to Puts with initial target at $300.
Above all, know your risk, know your levels, and trade with patience, dedication, and focus.
long short position on ASM ASM
The stock ASM has been going through some cyclical change. Due to underperformance on the balance sheet side, the company broke its cyclical turn. I believe that there is still room to short. The best instrument to use would be put options with the strike price closest to the actual price, and the expiration at the earliest date given. If you go along the put option route I would suggest taking short positions because they have less risk, and if the stock drops more than the short position will outperform the put option. Be aware of the fact that the put option may be harmful to the portfolio because the stock is no longer driven by cyclical turns, therefore the stock can open at a different price, and options contracts are executed until the market opens, so if you get options when the market is closed you make be at risk for a loss if the stock opens at a different price. To hedge some of the risks from the short position you could be long positions if you feel the need to.
5 dollar is so close, so far. high volume on 5 strike puts give false read as bear bets. Wrong. New longs BTD take hedges.
$DIS Long Opportunity or Short Entry if It CrashesDisney recently announced positive news surrounding it's executives chain and has held a strong uptrend over the course of the last few months. If the stock breaks and closes above $112.86 there's a good opportunity to go long and follow the uptrend. If it breaks downward though, and closes below $111.12, then an opportunity for a credit spread or put position opens for a really short term trade due to the bullish bias.
Citigroup (C) A Great Candidate For A Downside SpreadAlthough the banking sector has largely had a rally since the Presidential election, regulatory headwinds and near-term fundamental outlook and projections have seemed bleak for Citigroup’s growth potential. Long-term, the stock is a great purchase at a somewhat discounted price to its recent trading, but for our swing strategy, the latest break to the downside into a possible downtrend or consolidation is an opportunity for us.
If you’re looking for a 1:1 risk/reward trade with a skewed probability curve starting at roughly 62% chance of success to earn 100% ROI, then Citigroup is a gem in this turbulent market. Actually, we found this trade while scanning due to possibly having to close for a loss on our recent Alphabet (GOOG) trade due to management’s screw-up on an epic scale regarding extremist videos and advertisements on Youtube .
Anyways, here’s the trade we see:
Current stock price $58.46
Buy X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58.50 Strike
Sell X Puts; 13 Apr 17 Exp; 58 Strike
Max Return on Risk/ROI: ~100%
Fun times.
Sell puts on volatility spikeThe precious metals sector was down hard yesterday on anticipation of further equity market upside post Trump Congress speech today. In this context, SLW was down most on twice average volume. While this would normally make us stay away from the shares, it offers excellent yields on the volatility spike, and a potential opportunity to build a position on the precious metal should the position be assigned:
- Indicative prices as per last close -
SELL SLW 16JUN17 $18 PUT = 1.02 (5.19% over 108 days, or 17.53% annualized)
SELL SLW 16JUN17 $17 PUT = 0.55 (2.80% over 108 days, or 9.45% annualized)
TUP - hedge your longs with Feb 55 putsOn January 13th and 17th, Smart money built up almost 5,000 contracts of new open interest in Tupperware Brands Feb 55 puts. Using Friday Jan 13th's cost of $2.40, break even stands at $52.60 -- basically at the recent support confirmed during the last two weeks of December. These Feb 55 puts include earnings and will profit should earnings disappoint or if recent bullish technicals fail to confirm and the stock price resumes it's downtrend from its Oct 2016 highs.
With the stock price recently breaking out of a downtrend and recapturing the 50 day moving average, I am bullish as long as price stays above the 50dma, but watching for a Failed Breakout Reversal to join the Feb 55 puts.
Playing the $TSLA DownsideAfter poor earnings release, a major downgrade from Goldman Sachs, and an overall overinflated price, this break of the upward trend was an opportunity too good to pass up with a slightly OTM Skip-strike butterfly trade. See our site for more research and our trades in our case-study accounts as well as our personal accounts.
Long Term short on USDCADA clear reversal happened the end of 2015 with the dollar, bringing to an end the long term up trend. After a move up this high (2013 .99 - 2016 above 1.45 a natural retracement or consolidating is expected. I see both as an opportunity to take a long term (2 year) position in this buy buying puts on FXC two years out.
Technically on the monthly chart there is a clear trend line break (down) and a natural move to the bottom of the consolidation range to test the swing lows at 1.25 +/- is the clear initial target also getting us closer to those fibonacci retracement lines, though 1.20 would be a full 50% retracement. This would also put us below a 30 month moving average and that would change the overall direction to firmly down.
COF - Double top formation Short from $87.93 to $76.23COF forming a massive double top formation. It touched the double top resistance & seems rolling over to the down side. Overall looks a decent shorting opportunity.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $87.93 or rally to $91.55
Exit Target Criteria- $76.23
Stop Loss Criteria- $92.13
Option: $90 March/Apr-17 Puts
You can check detailed analysis on COF in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 12:50"
Trade Status: Pending
MDLZ - Breakdown trade from $40.37 to $32 area MDLZ seems forming a declining neck head & shoulder formation. It is also running within a channel formation. Technically it looks weak & it had recent insider selling. We think it will decline to 32 area shortly.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- break of $40.37
Exit Target Criteria- Target 1- $36.43; Target 2- $32.23
Stop Loss Criteria- $42.23
Indicator Notes- Negative Twiggs Moneyflow
Option- $42 Feb-17 Puts
You can check our detailed analysis on MDLZ in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 3:00"
Trade Status: Pending
MELI - New Short trade from $149.73 to $91.13We are looking for a new trade setup in MELI. Please check below.
Trade Criteria
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $149.73
Exit Target Criteria- $91.13
Stop Loss Criteria- $161.63
You can check detailed analysis on MELI in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 8:10"
Trade Status: Pending
NVRO- Upward-channel breakdown, short from $74.17 to $50NVRO running within a long term upward channel type of formation. If it break it will be very substantial. In the short term it formed a H&S formation & broke down to its target price. It also has insider selling. Now A break below Wednesdays low would offer confirmation or second entry criteria. Target 50.00
Would look at February $85 Puts and consider a Stop of 86.33
You can check our detailed analysis on NVRO in the trading room/ Executive summary link here-
www.youtube.com
Time Span- 1:20"
Trade Status: Pending