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Puts

Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp
Stay Long MPCIf you went bullish on calls per my previous post, you are enjoying a nice pop today. My time horizon is longer so I am holding until $38.75 (the next fib level). The MA just crossed and I want that to marinate for a few sessions. You should be just playing with house money now if you bought the day or day after I posted. This is technicals-only trade devoid of any fundamentals if that had to be said for this website! The narrative is refiners have been oversold for the past couple weeks. The market has realized that now. I'm not paying attention to anything in action in CL or any news about Nigeria. That is all noise to me. The only thing I'm paying attention to is that MA cross and the two fib lines that define my stop/sell positions.
NYSE:MPCLong
by nodiggity
This industry is primed to suffer more than any other.The chart above shows assorted real estate stocks, they aren't cherry picked and were random (except RAIT Financial), but you can see the trend. Get the hell out of real estate. Seriously if you have any real estate or RAIT stocks it is a great time to sell. This housing market has gone nuts from the years of 0%. Rental vacancy rates are at a 30 year low and rental prices are through the roof (pardon the pun), with houses that would have a $700 mortgage going for $1200+ with ease. Housing prices are way up too and are around pre-crisis levels. NO I AM NOT SAYING THIS IS ANOTHER HOUSING BUBBLE. I'm not stupid, c'mon. Real estate stocks certainly haven't gone crazy in recent years, given residual investor uneasiness about the sector. However, many symbols have made some nice gains since '08 and they are going to get hammered. As you can see on the chart all these symbols are RAITs and real estate and they are sliding already. A rate hike, even if the FOMC says it's only .01%, will be seen as the start of higher interest rates and thus a decrease in home sales. So get some put options on the sector, I'd say go 4-12 months out with strikes 15%+ lower than last price, it'll pay off. Even if Yellen announces no rate hike in Dec., everyone thinks it's coming, and that's all it takes. The housing market really does need it though, prices are getting a bit too high and rental prices are insane high. Also, don't confuse real estate stocks and bank/financial stocks, banks will benefit from the rate hike (increased lending and profits from interest).
RShort
by RyanMartin
1
KORS- More room to fallThe downward channel broke severely to the downside this week after KORS plummeted an additional 25% post-earnings. I think the multi-year lows of ~35/36 will be tested if not breached. Even if the stock is slightly oversold in the very near term, the trend on the technicals is pretty clear. Fundos- After a dismal earnings release and a 25% drop in the price of shares over the last week, I still think KORS may have more room to tumble. The low price to earnings ratio may lead some investors to believe KORS is a value, but I believe it may be a classic value trap. Overall sales may be increasing but there are major caveats. Margins & comparable same store sales are down. This is a reflection of luxury brand status deterioration. The ubiquity of KORS products is indicative of an over-saturated brand. The products are commonly owned by people in lower economic strata. In my view, this has caused KORS to enter the faux luxury category. To increase incremental sales, KORS has offered deep discounts on their core luxury products (watches & purses). This negatively impacts the bottom line each quarter since margins take a hit. More importantly however, the long term growth prospects will wane if consumers begin to think KORS is no longer 'in', or if they no longer think of it as a luxury brand. Discounting a brand's flagship products is deleterious to the company's image and their long term profitability (see Coach, Abercrombie, countless others)
KShort
by dsorchestra90
Put premium selling opportunity in FCXI am by no means an expert programmer or technician, but what I have been noticing with FCX is a relatively consistent pattern where option premium sellers have a great opportunity for enhanced success. Rules: - On a 4 hour chart with Keltner channels, Bollinger Bands in the upper indicator and CM_WVF_v3_Ult in the lower indicator 1) When CM_WVF is in GREEN, and 2) Price is outside the KC 3) When price reenters the KC initiate the following transaction: Sell Put or Put spread with the closest strike at the lower Bollinger Band. Days to expiry = 30 days Within the past 6+ months, that signal has occurred 5 times with all expiring OTM, and once was there a touch. The setup in FCX is near again - Green CM_WVF and price is outside the KC. Stay tuned...
NYSE:FCX
by BobBilkovski