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10Year German Yields : A Scenario to profit from QE endingHope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. If you want to see my chart more closely, click the share button below that video.. You will be able to have access to the chart used in that video. Indicators used in this forecast are PRO Sinewave BETA & PRO Momentum . You can check my indicators via my TradingView's Profile : @PRO_Indicators If you have questions about the topics discussed in that video post a comment with "@PRO_Indicators" handle. Kindly, Phil If you want to learn more about the basic rules to trade with my indicators here's the educational video link :
TVC:DE10YLong
by PRO_Indicators
1
USDJPY: Potential CD leg to 91 handleHow long can the BoJ maintain its zero yield curve targeting with the growing divergence between US rates, strong GDP numbers and Abe's strong arming of Japanese corporates to raise wages? Looking for the USDJPY to test 100 congestion zone in the medium term followed by the 91 handle over the longer term. Extrapolate the strength of the USDJPY to the DXY and consider the inflationary impact on US imports (notwithstanding Trump's trade wars) and of course equities. Note, this is not going to be one a straight line move to 91, so trade accordingly.
Short
by WellTrainedMonkey
EURUSD Short Position (4Hr Timeframe)- following positive PMI data, this will bring the EUR back to area of resistance, however I believe the pair will retest this level leading to a bearish move towards the monthly support of 1.1450 - I believe the ECB will remain dovish in the upcoming meeting in regards to the QE programme as this is necessary to secure the gradual convergence of inflation towards the inflation target - In terms of technicals, there is a clear head and Shoulders pattern followed by a retracement supporting the potential bearish move
Short
by TarbzFX
Dollar has no grounds to rise. At all.September FED meeting US fixed income and stock markets are preparing to lose cushion as Fed may announce the onset of balance-sheet cut at the meeting on Wednesday. Termination of reinvestment policy and a smooth shedding of securities means a complete switching off of the "rescue mode” which has been regulator’s state for about a decade. The market practically rules out the possibility of a rate change in September, but the chances of a rise in December rose to 52% last week. The initial rate of liquidity withdrawal from the economy is estimated at $ 10 billion / month, each quarter volume will increase until the monthly sales volume reaches $ 50 billion. At such rates in the first twelve months, the Fed will offer $ 300 billion in bonds to the market and about $ 500 billion in second year. Bonds with what maturity date will go first is still unclear. In its program, the Fed will undoubtedly take into account past failures of its colleagues, where QE withdrawal aftermath was a rough going. For example, the five-year incentive program in Japan ended in 2001 to 2006, which forced the Bank of Japan to restore purchases, and after a two-fold increase in the ECB rates in 2011, they were followed by a rollback, with the QE announcement in 2015. The growth of inflation due to the devaluation of the dollar over the past few months helped the US currency to spend a week on a positive note, but the situation with the primary drivers of growth was disappointing. Retail sales slowed in August, so optimism on the US currency quickly came to naught. There are no data that underline the strong growth of consumption, so the revelations of the Federal Reserve on the decision in December should not be expected in the absence of clear signals. Too early to enjoy The revival of shale drilling in the United States, together with restart of the main refineries pose a major threat to oil prices. The growth of WTI last week to $50 per barrel was obviously dependent on short-term factors, which will gradually disappear. The forecasts of OPEC and the IEA on increasing demand improved the information background but nothing more. The alarm signal came from CFTC data, which showed that the net position of hedge funds in the week ending Dec. 12 declined. Further dynamics will depend on the news about rebound of the refineries’ operation. The long-awaited sign of stabilization Housing prices in China have grown at a minimum pace for seven months due to effective efforts of the Chinese government which cooled the economy. Despite tough measures to reduce credit dependence of the economy real estate market surprisingly shows signs of stability without major prices pullback. Leveling off of prices allows expecting that tightening of the credit policy by authorities will pass less intensively, which is a good signal for local stock markets and for the rest of the world, perceiving the situation in China as a significant external risk. Arthur Idiatulin
TVC:DXYShort
by Tickmill
News Compilation ahead of Draghi's Speech (Long Bias)Draghi is due to speak tonight during the ECB Press Conference. I guess today this is all market will talk about. The morning session up to this point has not hinted much, aside from EURAUD moving up due to AUD bad data, the rest is kinda sideway. Running into this event I don't have any particular insights, given the structure of first statement, followed by Q&A, there will be a lot of choppy price action during the broadcast. What I'm trying to do in this post is to compile the news watch from various source to get a sense of market's expectation. All in all, not likely to trade this like the CAD rate hike as this is not very direct impact on the currency (yet), I'd prefer to avoid the choppy news. News Compilation: MarketWatch: citing Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING "The stronger euro has made the ECB’s taper tiptoeing even more complicated . While a clear hint on tapering at this week’s meeting could send the euro even higher , potentially undermining the recovery, room to postpone tapering is limited due to bond scarcity" => Weak to Neutral " A Reuters report last week said the rising euro is worrying more policy makers, leaving an announcement on QE tapering at Thursday’s meeting highly unlikely. The report said an announcement might not be ready until December ." => Weak to Neutral “As the ECB is probably not yet unanimous on the first option, we expect that Thursday’s meeting will again be about what Draghi did not say, rather than what he did ,” => Confusion expected Bloomberg: "the ECB is likely to support the consensus view in the marketplace that, as of January 2018 , it will be reducing the pace of monthly asset purchases ." => Strong "This belongs in the context of a gradual phasing out of the program, combined with rate hikes and, much further down the road , an outright contraction of a balance sheet" => Strong " markets have become very comfortable in interpreting the lack of official guidance on the policy normalization as a green light to increase financial bets on the continuation of a low volatility " => Interesting point, if Draghi don't make a clear guidance or if he does make a hawkish one, EUR will still strengthen BK Asset Management: "For this reason, we think the ECB will go ahead with reducing asset purchases on Thursday" => Strong "Most economists expect the ECB to cut asset purchases by 20B euros and if that’s all we see, EUR/USD will break 1.20 but probably struggle to extend its gains above 1.21. If they cut by 30B or more, EUR/USD should hit 1.21. However if they forgo reducing asset purchases and postpone the decision to October or December, EUR/USD will fall to 1.1800 and possibly even lower." => a very clear guidance and scenario analysis from BK The Guardian: "Time to raise eurozone interest rates , says Deutsche Bank chief" => Strong "The ECB is pumping €60bn a month into the markets in an attempt to stimulate growth, making a total of €2tn, and has operated a negative interest rate since 2014." => now BK's estimate makes sense, that's about a 30% to 50% cut to the supply of EUR in the market My interpretation so far is that general market expecting a strong EUR thus the alpha bet is on the short side. We should watch for a very specific talking point of 1) a guidance of how they gonna taper and better yet 2) an announcement of tapering itself. Paring this kind of sentiment with AUD weak data, I think the pair will drifts past resistance 1.495. We still need more meaningful price action from UK session to get a hint of what European big boys thinking but I will just go ahead and play into the news with a very wide stop and exit before the news announcement.
Long
by vietbach1990
A good opportunity to buy the EuroEURUSD has a "fair value" of around 1.36 according to OCED (data.oecd.org) It was oscillating around that area for a while until a period of divergent monetary policy - the fed stopping their money printing presses and the ECB starting theirs. This brought the Euro to almost parity. But now we are entering a period where both central banks are reducing their QE activity. I think we will start moving back towards that 1.36. Take a small position today because this is nice retracement. A small position allows you to take a much bigger loss in terms of pips. Add once we're back over 1.18/9 and then keep adding on weakness and taking some off on strength.
Long
by TraderVoe
Longterm view on S&P 500Kinda cluttered, these are areas I'm paying attention to, depending how the market enters those zones I might think about taking a long/short position. Some fun facts: - Fiat currencies get stronger in market corrections, since people are selling whatever they can for dollars/fiat. - Approximately HALF the volume on the US equity markets is generated from high-frequency trading. If I understand this correctly that means half the volume traded on markets is just a reflection of the other half. That's very precarious. - Approximately %60 of bank loans within the developed world are against real estate that already exists, ie mortgages, not for construction or business startups or whatever. Non productive assets. Kinda makes you second guess the whole mantra behind things like QE. - Despite unprecedented levels of monetary easing, money velocity has plummeted and yields are scarce. There is no happy ending here. I'm not too keen on the SPX being able to hold this upward 45 degree angle its been on, I expect a crisis/correction towards 1500 at some point. I'm not a permabear but a major change needs to occur within the design of our financial system for the world to continue running, and that won't come without some volatility. These endless loans/debts simply cannot be repaid. The central banks need inflation and they're gonna get it through permanent money creation/debt monetization. This'll probably play out between now and 2020.
FX:SPX500Short
by pjlbtv
USDJPY Epic Descending Triangle Breakdown ImminentOANDA:USDJPY has consolidated for a few days already and failed to retake the 112 level. With a series of lower highs, the supply resistance level is slowly going down to meet with the Weekly 200MA support. Its possible it might find support at the Daily 200MA level as it was able bounce off it from the previous downleg. In my opinion it might still test the 111 level one more time before the support finally breaks. Entry: 111.044 Profit: 108.215 Stop: 111.325 Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Short
by SimpleMillennialAverage
2
USDJPY Nothing Goes Down Forever April 3-7 Trading PlanOANDA:USDJPY looks like its bouncing back up after a severe downmove forming a nice channel. 4H Timeframe View: It was able to pullback and even retest the 20MA in the 4H timeframe so it will be great if it touches the 50MA(yellow line) and hold above it for a confirmation of the short term uptrend. Long: 111.342 Stop: 111 It might still pullback to test the 50MA on the 4H so its better to be safe to put the stop a few pips just below it Target 1: 112.9 The 20DMA/50DMA even the 4H 200MA are converging on this area so its reasonable that it might have difficulties breaking through this level so I might take partial profits on this area just in case Target 2: 113.8 If it doesn't get rejected on the level with a cluster of MAs then the next logical target will be the upper channel Any feedbacks are appreciated!
Long
by SimpleMillennialAverage
1
EURUSD: Intermediate term viewI think we can see a sharp rally back to the 2-month timeframe downtrend mode, as explained in my long term view chart. We can look to add on dips to 1.0564, with stops at 1.0505, or simply, add after each time the market moves 1 average range in profit, on setbacks. Note the triangle I highlight, constructed using the highest low before the election, the lowest high at the bottom, and the recent highest low before this last selloff in the Euro, which formed the 'Right shoulder' of our bottoming pattern. These trendlines are quite significant, so keep an eye on them for the breakout. It's viable to keep stops far from the action now, to give this setup enough time to pan out, but if you're actively trading, you can also trade around the core position, in the short term. I leave that up to your discretion, just consider the main bias here is long. We need to see 1.07396 hit within 3 days, ideally, which will probably be followed by stagnation, until we can break the 'neckline' here (happens to align with an ECB key resistance level (labeled by the green line near the recent highs.). Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
2
USDJPY Updated Inverse Cup and Handle Pattern Break or BounceFX_IDC:USDJPY completed the handle of the Inverse Cup and Handle pattern and its now testing the previous daily low. If FX_IDC:USDJPY breaks down then it should retest the daily support turned resistance as the 200MA Daily, 50/200 MA Weekly, 50/200MA Monthly Moving Averages should provide support for the price to bounce. If it bounces from here then it needs to once again challenge the 50MA Daily that rejected the price twice already. It should act as resistance and if FX_IDC:USDJPY is now switching to a downtrend then it should hold. Either way next week's price action will be decisive Any feedbacks are appreciated!
by SimpleMillennialAverage
6
Longterm view on GoldPretty self explanatory, shaded areas are where I think price will turn, based on unfilled orders existing right outside those candles. I'm particularly convinced by Jim Rickards(youtu.be), who argues that gold will go through a severe re-pricing whenever the relentless expansion of central bank balance sheets overwhelms the low-yield, deflation-biased economy we're currently in. QE/Stimulus does not work (currently ECB/JCB have been buying ~$200b worth of stuff EVERY MONTH) and all that misspent capital will have to be accounted for one way or another, ultimately through inflation. We're going to experience an inflationary episode much like the 70's when the dollar depegged from gold and the world became pure fiat, except the paradigm shift this time around is for permanent money creation to become the norm, aka helicopter money, which arguably is a more sensible form of money (read here: en.wikipedia.org(1860s_money)). When the debts placed upon us become monetized by the very central banks they originate from, it will be known that deflation is dead, and there will be nothing stopping inflation from taking over and reclaiming all that misspent capital. Now is a risky time to go long general bonds/equities, focus on preserving wealth rather than chasing yield. %5-10 in physically owned gold makes fine sense as insurance against severe market, rare as their occurrences may be, and the price currently seems quite fair. Gold made a drastic climb up from 1050 to 1250, assuming 1050 is a reliable floor the worst we'll see for gold going forward is probably the 1090-1120 range. Although, it's totally possible the ComEx paper market gets slammed for whatever reason, if they are that bold then I don't really expect anything worse than 900. If you buy physical gold you shouldn't have any plans to sell it for at least three years.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by pjlbtv
USDJPY. Short, intermediate and long term projectionThe USDJPY pair is tracing a strong long term reversal in my opinion, and here we have an opportunity to join the trend with minimal risk. You can go long at market, using the long term stops on chart, close to 101.2, or, take a buy stop order at 104.703 (good for the day), speculating that Kuroda's speech will take care of triggering this daily uptrend, with stop at 103.789. Targets are on chart, good luck if you follow me on this trade. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
USDJPY: Weekly uptrend firedThis is an update to my previous publication. We now have full confirmation of a weekly uptrend aiming for 110.141 by December 23rd or sooner. If not long you can buy new daily lows, or dips to 102.8 after this week's close. Jumping in now, is not bad, but not optimal. This uptrend probably implies that the smart money is getting into new leveraged positions for the last quarter of the year, largely bullish for equities, so, we might return to Yen, Bonds and Gold being opposite to S&P500 again in this risk on rally. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
EURJPY: Interesting triangle spottedWe have a good opportunity on the long side here, brewing behind the scenes. We are looking for bears to lose steam, and the pair to slow down, to go long on strength. This decrease of the ATR values shows momentum's waning, meaning that the market has been one sided for a while (in this case, the last leg of selling slowing down). We can follow the 'path of least resistance' which is indicated by RgMov, which in this case, gives us a bullish outlook as more favorable. Failure to hit 113.253 by the close of the 21st will confirm that the bears are losing steam, further validating this trade idea. We can either take a new daily high as long entry, risking a drop to the recent lowest low after today's close, or we can wait for the timer to expire and bears to fail reach the target to enter longs on strength. Keep an eye on the BOJ this week, the move out of this triangle will be quite sizeable. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4) Repeat: The European Central Bank created artificial pricesAugust 14, 2016 This is the text from my comments on the charts: January 2015: These levels above 4530-4600 are totally artificial .It was an aberration created by the European Central Bank (Quantitative Easing), which helped the CAC40 hits its long term diagonal resistance before it would collapse. Greece and China were merely excuses. Greek CDS (Credit Default Swaps) clearly showed that Greece had a bond default probability of about 85% in January 2015. Well done ! Can you see that by the end of 2015, the price of the CAC40 went back to its last value of about 4550? It was a lost year. And yes you are not seeing it wrong: that is the infamous Head & Shoulder pattern, as I mentioned many times here and elsewhere. European + US indices will certainly start plummeting in a month or two in my high opinion. The blue lines being shown merely depict one possible path and cannot be taken for granted. You guys can perform an Elliott Waves analysis and see. I do not currently possess enough knowledge/information nor the right skills to tell whether this would work or not. We shall see how it plays out !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
3
GBPUSD/ GBPJPY: BOE POLICY DECISION & CARNEY SPEECH HIGHLIGHTSBOE's policy decision and QIR was largely inline with expectations, perhaps even 10bn better than expected on the QE side - and was very forgiving with hints towards further interest easing, though the stubborn unwillingness to realise negative rates undermined this to some extent. GBPJPY and GBPUSD shorts traded into intermediate TP levels - with GBPJPY unsurprisingly outperforming (implied vol adjusted) given USD weakness, and trading through the 133 handle (132.3 now targeted) whilst cable traded abit more firmly bid struggling to even test the 1.308 pivot, let alone break it - i think we will see a 1.308 key support break tomorrow if NFP comes in hit or beat and I am now waiting for this (gbpjpy shorts closed). BOE Monetary Policy Decision Highlights: BOE Aug Minutes: 0 Members Voted to Increase Rate DJ News BOE: Six Members Voted To Expand QE Program, Three Against BOE: Forbes, Weale And McCafferty Voted Against Expansion Of QE BOE: QE Dissenters Saw Risk That Recent Surveys Overstate Economic Weakness DJ News BOE: Eight Members Voted To Launch Corporate Bond Buys, Forbes Dissented DJ News BOE: Forbes Concerned By Excessive Stimulus, Risks Of Corporate Debt BOE: All Members Voted In Favor Of Term Funding Program BOE: Majority Of MPC Members Expect To Vote For Further Rate Cut 0 BOE: MPC Members See Lower Bound For Bank Rate "Close To, A Little Above" Zero BOE Aug Minutes: MPC Voted 9-0 To Lower Bank Rate To 0.25% BOE Aug Minutes: 0 Voted to Keep Rate Unchanged BOE Aug Minutes: 9 Members Voted to Lower Rate BOE Signals MPC Not Contemplating A Move To Negative Interest Rate BOE: Economic Outlook "Has Weakened Markedly" Following Brexit Vote BOE Makes Largest Cut In Economic Growth Forecast Since 1993 BOE Cuts 2017 Economic Growth Forecast To 0.8% From 2.3% In May BOE Cuts 2018 Economic Growth Forecast To 1.8% From 2.3% In May BOE Sees Declines In Business Investment During 2017 And 2018 BOE Sees Business Investment Down 3.75% In 2016 Versus 2.5% Growth In May BOE Sees Business Investment Down 2% In 2017 Versus 7.25% Growth In May BOE Sees Housing Investment Up 1.25% In 2016 Versus 4% In May BOE Sees Housing Investment Down 4.75% In 2017 Versus 5.25% Growth In May BOE Sees Pickup In Inflation On Weaker Pound BOE Sees Inflation At 2.1% In 2017, 2.4% In 2018 BOE: Measures Ensure Inflation Won't Fall Below Target In Medium Term UK Hammond: Prepared To Take Needed Steps To Support Economy BOE Expands Program Of Government Bond Purchases By GBP60 Bln BOE Purchases Of Government Bonds Will Take Six Months To Complete BOE Government Bond Buys Will Take Total To GBP435 Bln From BGP375 Billion BOE Last Expanded Stock Of Government Bond Buys In November 2012 BOE Launches New Program of GBP10 Billion In Corporate Bond Buys BOE Purchases Of Corporate Bonds Will Take 18 Months to Complete BOE Will Buy Non-Financial, Investment Grade Bonds BOE: Issuers Of Corporate Bonds Must Make "Material Contribution" To UK Economy BOE Approves Term Funding Scheme To Provide Loans To Lenders BOE Loans To Banks, Building Societies At "Close To" Bank Rate BOE TFS Intended To Ensure Cut In key Rate Passed On To Businesses, Households BOE MPC Sees Room To Expand all Four Stimulus Measures BOE Govenor Mark Carney et al. Speech Highlights: BOE Carney: UK Has One Of Most Flexible Economies BOE Carney: Can't Fully Offset Economic Impact Of Brexit BOE Carney: Package Of Stimulus Measures Is "Exceptional" BOE Carney: By Acting Early Can Reduce Uncertainty, Bolster Confidence BOE Carney: GBP Fall Will Boost Exports, Reduce Imports BOE Carney: MPC Has Been "Conservative" In New Growth Forecasts BOE Carney: Package Ensures Stimulus Will Have Maxium Impact
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
4