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QE

AUDUSD Near-Term OutlookThe Australian dollar is coming off a sizable gain against the greenback, following an employment jump of 58,600. This pushed the unemployment rate down to 5.9 percent from 6.2 percent in September. Analysts are expecting this to hinder further rate cuts near-term, while economist Stephen Koukoulas believes the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may indeed raise rates. Before we jump off the deep-end, I noted following the higher than expected employment data that Australian employment from month-to-month is volatile and should be taken with a grain of salt. I have witnessed a gain of 70,000 one month followed by a loss of 20,000 the next. Furthermore, wage growth is rapidly contracting. Traders watch central banks fumbling with whether to continue on a path to ease or not. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) increased their key benchmark by 100 bps on a series of strong, albeit short-lived, data only to reverse course in less than a year’s time. AUDUSD is trading within a descending channel on the 4H chart leading into the RBA policy minutes on Monday. If the RBA can hold off on further easing, the pair could set up for a potential near-term trend break. Near-term resistance is located at .7163 and .7217, while if the RBA hints at further easing, AUDUSD could continue its path lower .7070. The week is chalk full of U.S. data, which could aid the Aussie dollar in either direction. If U.S. data is weak enough and triggers greenback selling, the pair could achieve near-term resistance targets. Moving average activity is looking like it is setting up for a 20/50-EMA bullish convergence, but until then they are merely minor support levels. Intraday momentum, as measured by the ADX, is rather weak at 14. The +/- DMI is suggesting bullish price action is still there, but the RBA could quickly jawbone a change. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
EURGBP to Push Lower After Wedge RetestIf price closes underneath the combination of support, traders will search out The U.S. dollar’s upward momentum quickly faded, following Wednesday’s FOMC minutes which suggested a December rate hike was “back on the table.” Traders were likely booking profits after the spike higher in the dollar index, which has caused dollar pair counterparts to advance into the weekend. The greenback advance tested, and failed at, price resistance at 97.80. The euro was able to rebound modestly after the downright shellacking it took following comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi that more quantitative easing and interest rate adjusts can be made when needed. However, the pound greatly surpassed gains made by other currencies against the general dollar weakness. I have said previously, even mentioned it to Pedro da Costa (Editorial Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics), that the Bank of England’s comments about a rate hike by the end of 2015 were as facile as the Fed’s. After the highly anticipated September FOMC minutes, where the vast majority expected the Fed would indeed hike rates (not I), came and went without a rate hike, Sterling sold-off. Why? I mentioned that the Bank of England does not want to move first in monetary tightening and was merely piggybacking off of the Fed’s rhetoric. Now that the Fed fund futures have priced in a higher probability of a rate hike in December and January (2016), cable has made solid gains in recent days. Technically speaking, EURGBP really began its decent lower after Draghi’s QE-related comments, and the selling pressure piled on after this week’s FOMC. Price action has closed the week at an important support-crossroads. The broken descending resistance trend created by a previously completed daily wedge (purple dotted) is not acting like subjective support, while price support comes into play at .7115. If price closes underneath the combination of support, traders will search out price targets of .7030 and .6965. If current support can muster buying, a rebound to .7200 is probable with secondary pullback target of .7270. In the medium-term, we are likely to see trader sentiment strengthen in favor for the Sterling as long as data remains mediocre in both the U.S. and the U.K., which would allow the pretense of potential monetary tightening by the end of the year. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
Dax: Potential monthly uptrend emerging from mode supportWe have seen a very volatile range in the Dax recently, in lower timeframes, but if we use a bird's eye view of the situation, we can see that the previous mode support from this leg's uptrend held and it's about to fire an uptrend signal. My previous monthly downtrend analysis is currently invalid, and we can expect to get excellent opportunities on the long side here, on the short side in BUXL and the short side in eurusd (and long usdchf). If you want live updates and more information, make sure to follow me at collective2, where I provide signals for auto trading and via email for a monthly fee. I'm also providing access to a live trading chatroom free of charge for concordbay.com customers, contact me via skype for more details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX Analyst at Concord Bay dot com
DLong
by IvanLabrie
Dax: Massive monthly downtrendI had posted bullish setups in the past, which got invalidated. At the time, I didn't expect such a massive sell signal to emerge, but now it's confirmed. This serves as demonstration, since you can't enter safely now, but you can know the direction the index will take in the intermediate term. The downtrend signal aims for 7430, in the span of 5 months max, which is a very significant correction. The overall picture remains potentially bullish or range bound, once said target is hit, or this signal invalidated. Since price is below the ichimoku tenkan and kijun sen lines, and is about to close under a previous uptrend monthly mode, while forming a new low, it's highly probable to see a continued selloff until my target is hit. I'd grade this as a 60-70% chance based on my experience with this method. This confirms the possibility of seeing EURUSD reach my monthly target at 1.21397 as well, which helps me stay in my trade until we get there. If we manage to see a new 24 month low in rgmov, then I'd suspect the downtrend might continue and break the ichimoku cloud support, and head for a retest of lower support levels, and last well into 2016. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:GER30Short
by IvanLabrie
14
EURUSD: Overall, bullish...need more reasons?Analysis on chart. I'll be looking to capture the low, expecting it to get me early on in the rally that will ensue once USOIL breaks out of the contracting triangle, and the Euro Stoxx retracement ends. It's not yet confirmed, but I think that we will see the move in question start after NFP. Rgmov is showing interesting bullish strength, hidden amidst the apparently chaotic chart. Since we're mostly range bound, the logical thing to do is to fade extremes, this just happens to lead into a great trend continuation play, if my analysis is correct. Do your due diligence and only trade this with a strategy in mind. Mine won't trigger until EURUSD drops some more, so for now I'm short. I'll keep my followers up to date with the latest trade management cues and intermarket analysis via my Collective2 signals page, link is in my profile. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
DOW Transports To Retest Recent Lows(Note: DOWT is no longer in a bear market after rallying the last two weeks) 2015 was suppose to be just another year of the epic bull market created by reckless central banking policies. Some Wall Street estimates for the S&P 500 were as high as 2,300. Me? I projected a contraction to 1,810 in mid-January. Whether or not the SPX will reach my target within the next 10 weeks, or so, is uncertain; but what has been quite clear is the scaffolding holding with risk assets around the global has been crumbling for sometime. In " Is A Storm Brewing? How History is Repeating Itself ," I was clear and concise in what 2015 had in store (posted Jan. 13, 2015): I support the idea that we are on the precipitous of something disastrous. Those who constantly look at underlying factors and notice the shifts in the FX, commodity and economic data are witnessing that the latest boom cycle is on its last leg. In essence, the post was a summery of the marco trends few wrote about because everybody indulged in the feel-good of rising stock prices. The post ended quite ominously: "2015 is going to be mercurial…" On March 26, I indicated that the DOW transports looked technically weak. Price action had been consolidating early in the year, much like the SPX. The index made several lower highs, higher lows and finally broke support at 8600. Nobody was even looking at the transports as a potential catalyst to drag the broader markets lower, even though that is historically the case. For instance, Cowen Group's Head of Sales, David Seaburg, said, as late as June 25 (after the the transports already began weakening underneath consolidation), "Everyone is up in arms about the transports, but the underperformance has very little to do with a weak economy and has more to do with the structural issues within the sector." Seaburg also said that "I DEFINITELY don't see any downside (broader markets) necessarily." Almost a month-to-the-day, not only did the DOW and SPX hit their first 10 percent correction in four years, the DOW transports fell into bear market territory. Awkward. Those that live by subjectivity, die by subjectivity. The broader markets did receive a massive bounce following the largest NYSE short-interest since the Lehman Brothers collapse, but the transports has been rejected twice from 8,250, or the 23.6% Fib. retracement from the 2012-lows. It's important to note that central bank credibility is fading fast, and traders will become more wary as the year winds down. Structurally, the index looks weak as earnings have been lackluster to not good at all. EMAs are showing bullishness on the daily, as they are sloping upward. However, a close above 8,250 will be needed to garner any significant technical buying in my opinion. Price action is within a large symmetrical triangle with price support of 7,970 cutting through the middle. This key, near-term support level could determine whether the index will test triangle support, which is supported by price support of 7,790. A confirmed close below the triangle support will cause transports to retest the 2012 ascending trend line. I expect fundamentals to continue to deteriorate into 4Q, and the transports to challege 2011's trend (between 7,200 and 7,300). Conversely, a close above triangle resistance could cause a rally to 8,500. Please follow me on Twitter @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
DJ:DJT
by CommoditiesTrader
6
TLT: Long, but big short coming nextThe time at mode trend signal on chart points to a corrective advance of 5 weeks. There are 4 weeks left in this trend signal, and the target isn't too ambitious, but it's possible that TLT overshoots it and retests the runaway gap level above, which lines up with an impulse's wave 3 of 3 (and a range expansion bar's 50-75% retracement zone). Ultimately the trend will resume its direction, which is down. At least that's what I think based on the post pattern reaction after forming what looked like a terminal wedge. The move up materialized, but it's not an impulse, instead it's weaving a contracting triangle of some kind, which points to a cooldown before the next big move down happens. This rally will correlate positively with S&P500, as both find their tops in 4 weeks. There's a significant paradigm shift coming, where will the investors searching for yields go when nothing is certain? Just something to meditate about...Meanwhile, let's trade the facts, and react. Regards, Ivan.
T
by IvanLabrie
30
EURAUD: Multiple timeframe analysis suggests rallyThis is an update to my previous EURAUD chart, I was waiting for a long entry and it just presented itself to me. We have an hourly impulse forming, looks like a 5 wave advance, which could be the first of a new bullish cycle. The daily chart shows a strong mode has been formed and price is about to move above it, after producing a series of strong moves up followed by weak and grinding corrections. This looks like a potentially explosive long trade, with the weekly timeframe hinting at the possibility of a larger uptrend as well. I'll enter long and manage the position, trying to scale in on every chance I get. The initial target is the projection of the point of balance off the lows to the mode of the current distribution curve (a time spent at price profile of recent price action, as per Tim West's technique). A hefty move, considering this is only a very speculative projection, price can always end up trending and moving faster and in wider intervals. We'll see in due time, for now, looking to get long off lower timeframe signals, speculating that the larger timeframe ones will be confirmed with me already in an advantageous position. Cheers, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
EURAUD: Ideal opportunity for a pair tradeAfter seeing The Working Trader's idea I figured I could attemp a pair trade in this pair, to take advantage of the interest rate differential in both EURUSD short and AUDUSD long. The entry will be a market order, but I'd have to see how the markets open tomorrow, I will update the chart by then. For now, keep in mind that for pair trades, I aim to open a big position on each side, which thanks to the pair trade's more 'market neutral' stance, lets me use no stop loss and be somewhat safe, at least, as long as the ratio chart's setup is valid (in this case EURAUD). The advantages are multiple, check out The Working Trader's post in 'related ideas' for more information, I detailed it there. For now, if you want to enter this trade, find out the ADR value (atr of 1,5,10 and 20 bars added together and divided by 4). Once you know this you can calculate position size in base on your desired risk, per day. You will have to watch the trade, unless you're deep in profit, it won't be a set and forget deal. Good luck, and wait for the update regarding entry tomorrow. Target is initially the time at mode one, but it can retrace the whole terminal wedge (it should for it to be valid, and it has to occur in 1/3-1/4 the time it took to be formed). Cheers, Ivan.
Short
by IvanLabrie
11
Position trade: EURGBP shortI went short today, after getting a bearish signal confirming a possible large decline in this pair. The BOE is maintaining a hawkish view, which spells nothing but trouble for the Euro. Introduction of QE by the ECB in the coming days will seal the deal, making me consider an extreme target of 0.68013 and an intermediate term one at 0.7552. The level I consider as invalidating is a retest of 0.7951, which would make the pair start ranging. If the trade were to turn against me and travel 100 pips up, I'll enter a second batch with the same lot size. If it were to continue trending up, as long as the invalidation level is not reached, I'll increase the position to average out. Good luck!
Short
by IvanLabrie
18
GBPAUD: In depth time at mode analysisI spent a long time analyzing this pair, contrasting views with my colleague Nick Coulby, who specializes in Elliott Wave analysis, and working on my own time at mode analysis of this pair, as well as adding the result of insightful discussions held at Tim West's 'Key Hidden Levels' chatroom, regarding this topping pattern, as well as the patterns in the gold chart, and it's Elliott Wave analysis. All this rich information and length analytical process leads me to conclude the following: The uptrend isn't done, and while we see gold rallying, this pair will correct down offering a potentially interesting short setup, before lending us a perfect position trade on the long side if it meets my expectations. Ultimately the structure in gold is corrective, and the faith of the Aussie dollar's strength is connected to it, as well as to other dollar linked commodities (iron ore, copper), and subjected to stronger easing biases, vs those of the United Kingdom's BOE. In this regard, on the subject of fundamental analysis, we can see that the bias it favors is on the long side, but the timing for trading with it wouldn't position us favorably in this trade. I'll be looking for shorts as soon as gold starts rallying again, waiting for a retest of the top area, since I think we're seeing a corrective X wave flat pattern with limited downside. This will lead to new highs to complete the monthly uptrend signal target which will possibly form a new zigzag with a wedge C wave like we have observed before in this pair. This new wedge C wave will be the top of this formation offering an ideal short trade of larger implications, which is what I'm after. Conclusion is: If this model holds, and I think it's highly probable that it will, we will see a range bound situation, leading to a new high in a sharp advance, after which we will probably observe a terminal wedge pattern, which will be our cue for the interesting short setup, which should retrace the whole structure, and lead to a perfect long entry to rejoin the larger quarterly uptrend. I will continue to update this publication, since I think it has great potential and value, both as a journal, and as a testament of both Tradingview.com's and Tim West's 'time at mode' model's power. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
41
S&P500: Critical top aheadWe have clear technical indications that the S&P500 has ended its longterm impulsive uptrend in 1999-2000. Since then we have embarked in a series of corrective waves, with very clear fear spikes surrounding intense stock market crashes. Rgmov helps filter the noise and tells me that the current advance is short lived, while time at mode suggests that we might see a rally emerge from this sideways range that might extend to 2202.62 (based on the projection from the low of the last 5 week low that wasn't penetrated by sellers as of today, up into the mode, which is 2085.44. Any fast advance from this area, or a weekly bar with a low higher than this price on close will confirm the rally. The Elliott Wave analysts might consider the expanding formation on chart as a terminal wedge, and if the completion of the last portion of it triggers a sharp decline then it's possible that we witness a retrace of the whole advance since October 2013, in 1/4 of the time it took to climb to the top. In the short term, I'll be looking for intraday opportunities on the long side, but, I suggest watching the price action once we approach the 2202 target for the top. Good luck, Ivan.
SP:SPX
by IvanLabrie
18
EUR/USD: Rangebound and waiting for directionSince all the rumours of ECB QE were sold, and the actual thing was announced on early February, EUR/USD has been trading rangebound throughout 2015 with most of the price action developed in the 1,08-1,12 band. Hindsight is 20/20, but the best trades this year have been to buy the lows and sell the highs; and there's reason to believe this will hold for the foreseeable future, imo. Technicals are mixed: EUR has found a bid at the 1,08 area, which is a clear higher low from the depths on March and April. It also has shown a pattern of spiking up on up days (check the long wicks on several daily candles); it's a tell-tale sign of short squeezes. On the other hand, EUR has been trading below it's 200-day MA for over a year now, and the mean is starting to catch up with price... Barring any unforeseen changes in the fundamentals, that are clearly EUR-negative (US-EU Policy Divergence is the name of the game) there is little reason to believe that the Euro will pass this major technical hurdle. I will look at the colored sup/resis lines (My default view has a bit more, but these are the 2 most important on each side) as major pivots to trade the pair, and will stay away from it if I don't get a clear setup. I suggest you to do the same! PS: My bias is long, but since we're stuck at the middle of the range, I closed my long position at 1,1020 area this afternoon. Let's see where we open tomorrow.
by Daniel_Urdaneta
Dax: Buy stop at 11616If we don't reach this price level during this week, cancel the pending buy stop. I think it's possible to see the Dax start an uptrend in the weekly, but first I'd need to see price accelerate away from the mode in this timeframe. I had entered already using the 4h chart, but my target in that timeframe is lower (11550). Entry was 11421, SL 11244. The entry suggested here is a bit safer, since it would trigger the weekly signal on chart. Entry: 11616, SL 11314, TP #1 13256, TP #2 14723. ETA: 13256 reached before November 20 while price doesn't move below 11383. Potential targets are 13256, and up to 14723, while the stop loss would have to be below the mode. Risking 0.5-1% in this trade is ok, but it's ultimately up to you. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:GER30Long
by IvanLabrie
19
USDJPY: Longer term perspective is still bullishI've been watching this chart closely, and I think we might see a great buy setup in the near short term. Eyeing the area between 121.43 and 122.34, with invalidation for this signal below 118.968, potential upside is 137.94 in 6 months or less. We don't get significant trends in FX very often, and this is one of them. I'll be monitoring the Yen to enter a longer term position in it, since I consider the risk/reward and probabilities to be on the bullish side here. The fundamental odds favor this position as well, I included The Working Trader's idea in the related ideas field since I consider his input valuable. It's good when both technicals and fundamentals agree, just have to be patient for the right setup to pop. Good luck, Ivan.
Long
by IvanLabrie
12
ES - QE KICKED THE CAN PATTERNPrice seems to making a very rare pattern on the ES Mini, where price action takes the shape of a shoe that is trying to kick prices higher. Similar to kicking the can down the road. Upside targets are T1 2152.25 and T2 2181.50 When this rare pattern forms, price usually is super choppy with no support or resistance holding from the top of the shoe to the bottom of the shoe. As price nears the tip of the shoe, price will have violent moves up and down after long sideways algo chop. Your feet could get calluses from all the algo choppy price action. To prevent calluses double up your socks :D If price trades it's T2 @ 2181.50 your foot has out grown the shoe where you should order a size large on your next purchase.
CME_MINI:ESM2015Long
by elp
EURUSD- Medium/Long Term ShortIf policies continue to diverge, there will be strong fundamentals in place to justify a stronger dollar relative to the euro. From a technical standpoint, the long term support line appears to be broken. The 20v 50 day cross-over suggest momentum will be downward sloping. Bearish MACD cross-over is not a good sign. RSI may be over-sold but the down-trend looks pretty clear. It is certainly possible that EUR/USD will rally in the near-term, but I think the break of the long-term support and the firmly entrenched down channel will prevail. If we go below Below 1.00 & 1.05, the all time lows will be exposed.
Short
by dsorchestra90
EURUSD: Pair at WAR. The pair is at war. US is trying to contain the value of USD against EUR otherwise US will loose an importante competitivity. On the Other hand, EUR was loosing ground because of the situation concerning Greece. Since the Tension with Greece appear to be not over but at least in a more relax environment, EUR is gaining power against US However, bare in mind that ECB has this unbelievable QE ttol in hand and yet the Central bank is spreading 60 Bio € in the market. Where as FEd has just and only the interest rate as a leverage and it is already very low. So short term the upside may be until 1.0978, but on the long run, it is still 1045 and bellow.
by Pashabxl
CAC40 - At a Critical Long Term Inflection Point!!Looking at the Monthly chart of the CAC40 you can clearly see its heading into a Wall of Resistance. Fibonacci cluster, LT T-Line Resistance, Wedge Resistance and Price resistance. This is the real test for the CAC40 bulls. Clearly the bulls have the QE wind in their sails but it is PARAMOUNT that they confidently clear the Brick Wall. Tentative Elliott Wave Count on the chart suggests that this is an ideal end of wave target for a Wave C of B (Cycle degree). Definitely one to watch as the DAX (another major beneficiary of QE) is looking to be completing a Wave 5 of C count as well.
INDEX:CAC40
by Legionnaire
QE4 biggest risk to a bear? Possibly negative interest rates.To be transparent and clear I am short the market, fully invested. This is my further attempt to be objective. Bears will justify many reasons why QE4 is not possible. At the very least it's not probable, but in all honesty, after reading Bernanke's SA on reasons for using QE in a deflationary cycle, there is no reason the US will not go the way of Japan, by effectively perma QEing. Bernanke argues fairly convincingly, however only in theory, that in the face of deflation the Fed MUST at all costs pump the economy. A deflationary trap is the death of economies and empires. As I am almost fully invested to the downside, I am looking for the Fed to increase interest rates. Therefore, the move away from "patience" is a good thing, or is it? The Fed's focus was employment . Now that the US is arguably fully employed and ready to benefit from increasing wages, it was ready for the rate increase, only to be stifled by the USD and sluggish inflation. So what does the Fed do? The focus on employment has now been moved to deflationary worries . For now the Fed says it sees it as transitory, but the focus communicated to the market is committed. Hence, my worry! Every HFT algo, hedge fund and it's pet dog will be looking at inflation with the scrutiny it did with employment. As seen in the chart , the last three times inflation had a flat or decreasing cycle, the Fed QEed. What's happening with inflation now? What did Bernanke say about deflation? Remember, the Fed does not use QE to prop the market, it uses QE to arguably inflate the economy. Now for my conspiracy. Equities will drop in the medium term pulling in every bear, her cubs and all the forest animals. If I owned the market, I would force a move quickly breaking Oct 14 lows, because the Fed will have to act on deflation soon, if not transitory. Smart money buys only for the Fed to have a justifiable reason to QE4 the hell out of us, "deflationary pressures are worrying, we have to act decisively". The Fed has been promising increased interest rates for years, but oligarchs want another capital/income boost. Once QE4 is announced markets will "reach for the sky", as Buzz Light-Year put it. Bears should fear QE4, but ride it while it lasts, if it gets here that is :-)
FRED:CPIAUCSL
by BobbyBlueShoes