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Either Stock or GoldIn every analysis I have done over the years, I have said that I hold either gold or equities. I have never been in cash other than equities. These charts explain why. From 1884 to 1970, you could buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 0.74 gold or $14.75. So there is not much point in choosing between gold and the dollar during this period because the Bretton Woods system is still in place. But the real problem starts after 1970. After the Bretton Woods system was abolished, you can now buy 1 SP500 share with an average of 2 gold coins. Yes, the stock is rising relative to gold, but it is not in a continuous upward trend, so you can buy SP500 shares with 2 gold in 1972 or 2020. But in dollar terms, things are not so good. In 1970 you could buy SP500 for $100 and in 2020 you can buy SP500 for $3000. Therefore, when you sell a share, going for gold instead of cash may put you at a speculative loss in the short term, but in the long term you are always on the winning side.
SP:SPX
by YavuzAkbay
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Aug 25th—> Aug 30th)Weekly Market Recap 🌐 Hello Investors! 🌟 This week saw US stock markets continue their recovery from early August losses, bolstered by strong market breadth and significant economic developments. Let’s dive into the key events that shaped the financial landscape. 📈 Market Overview: US stock markets opened the week with a strong recovery, continuing to recoup losses from earlier in August. Market breadth was notably strong, though equity volumes remained seasonally low. Treasury yields were under modest pressure, the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low, and gold reached new all-time highs on Tuesday following weaker-than-expected Philly Fed services data. On Wednesday, the BLS released annual payroll revisions, revealing a downward adjustment of 818K payrolls, or ~68K per month, marking the largest downward revision since 2009. This significant revision further set the stage for the Fed to solidify expectations for a September rate cut at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in the week. July FOMC minutes confirmed that some officials had already been open to a rate cut during their last meeting. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remained under pressure due to concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. Heading into Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, the US 2-year yield was holding at around 4%, with futures markets projecting that investors expected the Fed to begin lowering rates next month, potentially by as much as 100 bps by year’s end. **Powell delivered a message that pleased investors, acknowledging that “the time has come for policy to adjust.” By expressing increased confidence in the inflation trajectory and stating that no further cooling in the labor market is necessary, Powell reinforced the belief that a series of rate cuts are likely to begin in September. Futures markets continued to project 100 bps of easing by early next year, with close to 200 bps over the next 12 months.** For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, the DJIA rose 1.3%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.4%. **Stock Market Performance:** - 📈 S&P 500: Up by 1.5% - 📈 Dow Jones: Up by 1.3% - 📈 NASDAQ: Up by 1.4% **Economic Indicators:** - **Treasury Yields:** The US 2-year yield held steady around 4%, as investors priced in expectations for Fed rate cuts. - **BLS Payroll Revisions:** The downward revision of 818K payrolls, the largest since 2009, further supported the case for a September rate cut. - **Gold Prices:** Hit new all-time highs as the US dollar slumped to an 8-month low. - **Crude Oil Prices:** Remained under pressure amid concerns about Chinese demand and hopes for a Gaza peace deal. **Corporate News:** - **Target:** Delivered a strong quarter, beating on both the top- and bottom-line, with improving trends across discretionary categories. - **TJX Companies:** Posted another strong quarter, capitalizing on the current economic environment. - **Palo Alto Networks:** Topped estimates and raised FY product revenue guidance, though margins declined. - **Workday:** Reported a standout quarter and raised long-term operating margin targets. - **Lowe’s:** Reported weaker-than-expected results, missing SSS estimates and lowering its outlook due to a challenging macroeconomic environment. - **Mixed Earnings:** Macy’s, Snowflake, Williams-Sonoma, and BJ’s Wholesale Club reported relatively poorer execution, reflecting varying degrees of macroeconomic challenges. - **Cava Group:** Delivered impressive results, with 14%+ SSS growth, in contrast to Red Robin Gourmet, which missed and lowered its FY profit outlook. - **AMD:** Made headlines with a SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B deal to acquire ZT Systems, aiming to better compete with Nvidia in the data center space. **Looking Ahead:** Next week will bring several key economic data releases and earnings reports: - **U.S. Core PCE Inflation** - **U.S. Q2 GDP** - **U.S. Housing Data** - **Earnings Reports:** CrowdStrike ( NASDAQ:CRWD ), Salesforce ( NYSE:CRM ), Dell Technologies ( NYSE:DELL ), Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) As we look forward, these developments will be crucial in shaping market sentiment and guiding investment decisions. If you have any questions or need further insights, feel free to reach out. Here’s to another week of informed investing and strategic decision-making! 🌟
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Prepare For The BOT COM BUBBLE (Starting 2026 & Beyond)I spent quite a bit of time this weekend going over my custom indexes and other research data to try to identify what and how the Vortex Rally I predicted would take shape. I mentioned something to my followers/subscribers last week about how today feels like the early 1990s (1991-1994 roughly). At that time, interest rates were just dropping from all-time highs and the general markets were in a bit of stagflation. People were not actively investing in homes or other big assets because it was not clear what the future would bring. The US government has just gone through the Regan Era - where spending on Starwars and other projects were considered Excessive - but that translated into a massive technology boom-cycle in the last 1990s. Are we going to see the same type of explosion with Robotics and AI over the next 10-20+ years. Will that lead to a massive rally phase (global & space growth industries) over the next 50+ years? How will humanity react to a massive robotics expansion where jobs and services may be replaced by robots? What will this transition lead to - some new type of human society/expectation where we can actually live a life dedicated to improving the human experience vs. working our entire life? Watch this video. Pay attention to my research. If I'm right - we are about to move into a very explosive market phase and smart traders should prepare for this move NOW. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
FX:NAS100Long
by BradMatheny
2
QQQ Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear followers, This is my opinion on the QQQ next move: The asset is approaching an important pivot point 480.03 Bias - Bearish Safe Stop Loss - 489.12 Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 465.88 About Used Indicators: For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
5
Powell Says "We're Cutting Rates" - S&P Performance MixedA nice alignment comparing SPX, NDX, RUT with the Fed Funds Rate showing when the FED raises rates and cuts rates and how it impacts the indexes. 1995 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 1998 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher 2001 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2007 Cut Cycle - S&P Lower 2019 Cut Cycle - S&P Higher (but after 30-40% COVID Crash) Nobody knows how this cycle will impact current markets, but we're about to find out. September 18 = 1st cut since 2019 (pre-COVID) and we've seen some impressive booms and busts since 2018. It's pretty remarkable really. The bull markets seem unhealthy, and the bear markets seem more violent and aggressive, but end sooner. How great or how nasty does it get? Let's figure it out and trade accordingly.
NASDAQ:NDX
by ChrisPulver
240823 Market Outlook $SPX $DJI $VOO $SPY $QQQChart S&P overlay Fed interest rate a few conclusions: 1. Stocks can rise and fall throughout rate cut cycle; 2. Rise in stocks is usually associated with minimum interest rate in the cycle; 3. US stocks were rising throughout rate hike cycle in later years; 4. More money supply management tools were introduced in last quarter century like QE policy; 5. More tools like Circuit Breaker were introduced to stop panic selling in US stocks since Financial crisis 2008; 6. The market has become more certain and efficient; 7. Investors must always recognize the market situation, cuz US management is research based and one cycle is different from another. A new prosperous cycle is enact at the moment. Cheers
SP:SPXLong
by moncap2023
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-23 Update: Gold Rips - SPY StallsHere is a quick update related to the post-Powell expectations. I still believe the SPY will consolidate through most of today and move into a broader rally phase next week and into early September. Gold is RIPPING higher after Powell's comments. I expect Gold to try to break above $2600 next week. Bitcoin is still struggling to break above the $63k level. It may make a move next week. Time will tell. Follow my research. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-23 : Harami Inside PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami-Inside pattern. This suggests the SPY will stay rather muted today - trading sideways and likely staying between 557-560. I believe the SPY will trend upward a bit and try to close near 560. I don't believe we'll see any big trends today - mostly just sideways consolidation. Gold will likely attempt to move above $2450 - attempting to regain support above $2535. Bitcoin will stay somewhat flat - probably below $61.5k as the big move won't happen till next week. Today may be more of a "go golfing" day. Literally, the SPY/QQQ/Gold/Bitcoin will probably stay in a very narrow range today - moving into a bigger trend next week. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Mag 7 Drags Down Large Cap - Potential Index Wedge FormationsThanks for checking out the video today. It was a reasonably nice selloff today, led mostly by the Mag 7 stocks. All US Indexes were in red, Nasdaq taking the worst of it around -1.60% lower. Powell on tap for Friday with Day 2 at Jackson Hole. The market is oh so curious if the FED will cut 25 or 50 bps in September and we have plenty of news to digest prior to the official September 18 FOMC Meeting and Press Conference. If Friday Aug 23's trading day pushes lower and helps balance out the aggressive bull moves from August 5's bottom, we could see a nice wedge pattern in the works - lower highs / higher lows. Watch the S&P Daily 200 SMA or 200 EMA for some dynamic support. It will be interesting to see if the bulls and bears both get what they want with prices on the move through September with volatility returning to elevated levels > 20 perhaps. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
QQQ bounce right back to resistanceExtremely bullish 2 weeks after that crazy low last Monday morning. You can see that QQQ tagged resistance yesterday and sold off today. Market is feeling bullish, but my gut tells me that this is a dead cat bounce. Hard to know for sure. The rally has been almost abnormally strong, and if you look back to early 2022 you saw the same thing. Big sell off with ridiculously strong rallies, but ultimately the market kept going down. Now, I obviously don't know that for sure. The advice I got the other day was "stocks only go up" as he bought a bunch of TQQQ and made a nice profit the last 2 weeks. So, maybe it pays to always be bullish. Anyhow, I'll just keep doodling on my charts and sharing with the hope that it helps someone.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Dr_Roboto
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-22 : Flat-Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay within a flat/downward type of price trend. In this video I cover Gold, Bitcoin, and the SPY. What I see is a consolidated flagging formation across many markets. As I suggested early on Monday - this week may be the week to go golfing or find something fun to do as it appears the SPY/QQQ and other are simply trading sideways (flagging). We'll see how things play out today. I would not be surprized to be saying the same thing tomorrow morning. As we close out the week, get ready for a bigger price move into late August/early-September. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat. All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30% DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching. Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
2
2024-08-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - All green, all good. Bulls want more climactic buying but have to settle with grinding it up. Bears are not building enough selling pressure to print consecutive bigger bear bars on higher time frames. Only look for longs until that changes. As of now, there is no reason not to expect much higher prices and new ath. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Much two sided trading today but bulls closed it green and they are making higher highs and higher lows. We are close to 20000 and will most likely hit it tomorrow. Market is not stopping so looking for shorts is a bad strategy right now for most traders. Bears built decent selling pressure today but to no avail. Market refuses to go lower as of now. Above 20000 I don’t think bulls have any resistance until 20200 but that is weak resistance at best so it’s not totally out of the question that we will just continue in an almost straight line to 21000. For bears there is nothing but pain right now. They would need a strong 1h close below 19700 for a start and many stops would probably be below 19450-19500. current market cycle: Bull trend in bigger trading range key levels: 19500 - 20000 bull case: Bulls only see a 15% up move from the lows and absolutely no reason to exit longs anywhere. They want to dance while the music is playing. Buying is becoming climactic and this increases the odds of a pullback. 20000 is a big round number and we could see the start of some profit taking there but for now I have my doubts. Invalidation is below 19500. bear case: Bears are not doing much. They tried multiple times today to keep the market from advancing too much and at least they kept it below 20000 but as long as they are not even touching the 4h 20ema, they have to content with scalps and taking quick profits. The best bears can hope for is to keep it below 20000 but the odds of that are low. Invalidation is above 20100. short term: Can’t be anything but bullish above 19700. Below I turn more neutral medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: None trade of the day: Between the orange lines was decent two sided trading but many many weird spikes and difficult trades to take. Buying 19800 was probably the best today.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-21 : Markets Top & StallAs I suggested in Monday's video, the SPY Cycle Patterns predicted today's TOP more than six months ago. Tomorrow's inside/harami pattern suggests the markets will stall out the rest of this week. I urged traders to prepare to wait out this week and sit on the sidelines. When the markets stall like this, it is best to avoid trying to trade in tight ranges. Wait it out and maybe pick out a few great swing trades for next week's rally phase. This update shows you why Bitcoin, Gold, and the SPY/QQQ will continue to stall and stay in a sideways price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
MSFT has room to the daily 50 SMA.NASDAQ:MSFT daily chart shows consolidation just below the daily 50 and 65 EMAs. If MSFT can confirm this daily supply to the upside, there is significant space on the chart up to the daily 50 SMA, which gives this trade a large measured potential. Many NASDAQ:QQQ names have reclaimed their daily 50 SMAs, and as long as the index continues to build above its daily 50 SMA, MSFT is likely to catch up. As MSFT is a thinner name, this trade will be more likely to work during the morning trading session when liquidity is higher.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by DMT_Doctor