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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern. This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend. This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now). I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome. I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks). Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days. I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
NQ | QQQ | Day trading plan 7-26-2024CME_MINI:NQU2024 Bullish Scenario Immediate Resistance Levels: Bullish Line: : 19,115.75 Target Price 1: 19,168.75 Target Price 2: 19,278.50 Strategy: Entry: Consider entering a long position above the immediate resistance at 19,115.75. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the nearest support at 19,041.75 to minimize risk. Targets: Set targets at the resistance levels mentioned above. Partial profit-taking can be considered at each target level. Confirmation: Look for bullish candlestick patterns or confirmation from volume indicators before entering the trade. Bearish Scenario Immediate Support Levels: Bearish Line: 19,065.00 Target Price 1: 19,041.75 Target Price 2: 18,998.75 Target Price 3: 18,932.00 Strategy: Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price breaks below the Bearish Line at 19,065.00. Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the nearest resistance at 19,115.75 to minimize risk. Targets: Set targets at the support levels mentioned above. Partial profit-taking can be considered at each target level. Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns or confirmation from volume indicators before entering the trade. Summary Bullish Entry: Above 19,115.75 with targets at 19,168.75 and 19,278.50. Bearish Entry: Below 19,065.00 with targets at 19,041.75, 18,998.75, and 18,932.00. Stop Losses: Adjust according to the nearest support/resistance levels to manage risk. This analysis should be used in conjunction with other indicators and market conditions for a comprehensive trading strategy.
CME_MINI:NQU2024
by shkspr
8
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024) **SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well. Next resistance $5655and $5688 Next support $5521 and 5428 Weekly Sentiment = Bearish **Chart Analysis:** () **Dollar Index:** DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX. Next resistance $105.90 Support $104 Sentiment = Crossover to upside **Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15 Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024** **Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
SP:SPX
by WallSt007
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged. On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names. A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off. The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below. Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support. If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands. The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500. The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
AMEX:IWM
by Trading-Capital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing. As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor." Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center. Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race. By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination. Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED. Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close. As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse. This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+. The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election. We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn. Get some... #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024. As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC). By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500. Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999. As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42. I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV. DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY. The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999. What's happened with market at these times? ⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down. ⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down. ⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps. Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
TVC:RUT
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone, Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24. The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend. If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else. I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted. If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again. Here we go... Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the sun shines.
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
3
QQQ Intraday $100 to $2500 with options RECAPQQQ is shown here on the 15 minute time frame. Overlaid are a HMA 7 and SMA 5 to provide moving average crosses. QQQ made a "M" pattern. Options charts are shown in the updates. First Trade SQQQ is opened at 9:48 for $ 6.00 per call contract times 16 contracts. It is closed at 10:05 less than 20 minutes later at $20.00 per contract. $96 dollars the only risk in the trade is waiting to settle as is the $ 224.00 in profit. ( This is a same day expiration intraday trade) Second Trade QQQ as QQQ has topped and is pivoting down. The second trade of the day is not a same day expiration as it is now Friday afternoon, a put option in the direction of the trend is taken for Tuesday the 20th, there being no puts for the Monday holiday. The floating profit is $ 224 and the strike is set for below the money in the current direction of the trend. A strike of $ 429 selected. The options chart is shown in the updates. The premium was 0.37 so $37 per contract so six contracts were taken for a total of which is $222 or slightly less than the profit on the first trade. The trade is taken at 14:47 market time and closed about 90 minutes later at 15:52 before the close. The contracts sold at close for $ 1.41 each yielding $ 141 per contract or $ 2256 overall. Between the two trades $100 was risked and $ 233 + 2256 or 2489 overall. The Reward to Risk ratio was about 25. The profit and the initial $100 into the trades awaits settlement after the holiday. This trade was made to teach a mentee about the power of options leveraged with narrow expirations to optimize profits and not spend a lot of time in the trade to minimize risk in the market from any number of potentials. Alerts and notifications centered on moving averages and rise or fall of intraday low time frame relative strength are used to lessen screen time. Twenty baggers may not be everyday but then again with practice and patience they can come along often enough.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by AwesomeAvani
QQQ rangbound bearish bias SHORTQQQ on the daily chart hit a hpivot high on 3/21 followed by a slight downtrend of 1-1.5 % overall this past week. Buying volumes are low. The Price Momentum Oscillator has reversed to bearish and the Raltive Trend Index has entered the chop zone and is heading bearish. Price is presently one standard deviation above the intermediate-term anchored VWAP. Reversion to the mean suggests another 1% move downside before VWAP support exerts itself. Price is compressing in a symmetrical triangle. Accordingly, I am expecting a move down before a potential reversal in a VWAP bounce from that support.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AwesomeAvani
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-25 - Deep Low Bottom (Gap Fill) This is a rather long video (about 23 minutes) - but I wanted to go over the unique situation presented to us with what I'm calling the "Kamala Shakeout" related to yesterday's deep selling trend. This video is very clear. We are still in a technical Bearish trend, and I've highlighted the levels needed to switch to a Bullish trend. Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Temp-Bottom. I'm expecting the SPY to attempt to identify support and roll upward - starting a price reversion that may see the price move above $555 over the next 2~5+ days. But, right now, I'm more concerned with early morning selling pressure trying to fill the GAP Window from early June. Remember, I'm trying to suggest a pattern reaction (a Temp-Bottom pattern) while highlighting the KEY Ultimate382 levels as confirmation levels for Bullish or Bearish trending. Yesterday's big selling move was, in my opinion, related to unknowns focused on Kamala Harris' run for POTUS. I believe the markets were waiting for any catalyst related to the uncertainties of a Harris Presidency, and those concerns were reflected in the selling pressure we saw yesterday. Here we go. Get some #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - 7-24 : Review & The Kamala ShakeoutAfter a long drive and trying to get through LA, I wanted to discuss what I believe is taking place in the US/Global markets. What I call the "Kamala Shakeout". Over the past few weeks, there has been much news related to Trump/Biden and the potential election consequences. But all of those expectations changed because of two rather large events.. _ the assassination attempt on Trump _ Biden's withdrawal from the race - resulting in Kamala Harris's rise. Now, I believe the markets are starting to digest the amount and scale of uncertainty related to a new POTUS candidate (with almost no knowledge of her policies, plans, and expectations) and the outcome in November (only 90+ days away). IMO, what we are seeing right now is actual FEAR related to the unknown factors centered around Kamala Harris. I believe voters and businesses already had expectations related to Biden/Trump (either outcome) based on the past 8 years. Now, with Kamala Harris, who knows what the expectations are related to plans, policies, and expectations? That is why the markets rolled as hard as they did today. The markets are pricing a new degree of uncertainty and will continue the Kamala Shakeout until the dust settles. I'll fill you in with more details tomorrow morning. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
2024-07-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: On such a strong bear day, there is no need for any analysis on lower time frames. The 15m 20ema held since Globex and selling anywhere could have made you a lot of money today. I updated my daily chart to show the most reasonable next targets. The old ath was 18223. So another 1000 drop for a retest of that. Just let that sink in. Rough outlook for the next months from me is the following, bounce 19200ish for 19600 but staying inside the bear channel. Touch of the 2023-10 bull trend line around 19000 where we probably see a bigger bounce and more sideways movement. After that is pure bull slaughter down to 18000 and from there I will calculate new targets but the bull trend line from the 2020 and 2023 will most likely be hit in 2025. current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market is in a deeper pullback which is a bear trend on a smaller tf but we will most likely transition into a trading range first before we enter the big trading range on the monthly chart again. key levels: 19000 - 20000 bull case: Bulls see the 3 pushes down inside a tight bear channel on the daily chart. The last pullback was good for 400 points and they want to rally from the 50% pb of the bull trend that started in April and which is most likely over. We are also trading right at the weekly 20ema. They are technically inside the bull channel which lead to the ath, so their bull premise is still valid. Odds favor the bulls for a pullback at 19200. Pullback targets above are 19600-19700 Invalidation is below 18900. bear case: Bears are back with a vengeance. Very tight bear channel down with huge bear bars closing on their lows. Bears are in full control of the market and their next target is to trade back below 19000 and hit the bull trend line from October. They just reached the 50% pb, weekly 20ema and the lower bear channel line. 3 good reasons to take profits by the bears and let the market have a pullback, so they can short higher again. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Neutral. I think we can hit 18800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. Odds favor the bulls for a bouce. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged since 2024-06 current swing trade: Short since 20800. Update: closed the swing short at 19250. Hope you made some. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade - SPY Seeking Support for Base/BottomHere is a quick video highlighting the News Event-driven price action today. My SPY Cycle Patterns don't predict or operate off news cycles. They are based mostly on Fibonacci/Gann research/cycles. Today's price action is a great example of when patterns fail to predict price trends accurately. But one has to understand that today's price movement is like throwing a huge rock into a tiny pond—it makes big waves. That is how traders are interpreting the TSLA news today. Even though the previous quarters were slightly worse than Q2:2024, traders anticipated any negative news that would push the markets downward (it appears). My analysis has not changed. I'm looking at the price and thinking, "Boy, this is going to be an incredible bullish reversion setup for skilled traders." In order words, when the selling pressure stalls/stops, prepare for a big rally above $556-557 on the SPY as a reversion move. Earnings are sometimes challenging to trade through. Big news can throw some big price swings as data hits. Buckle up. It will be interesting to see how the price reacts through this week's and next week's end. Based on my SPY Cycle Patterns, I'm still preparing for a bullish rally phase. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
AMZN is at weekly and daily demand zones.NASDAQ:AMZN is at key weekly and daily demand zones which have held up for the past several months. The daily 100 EMA and weekly 20 EMA have served as strong demand zones on this entire move higher after last earnings season, and we have been swinging the stock long from these levels in the $170s, before scaling out at $190 and $200 targets. This dip into $182 is a great level to reload equity that was sold into targets for a potential move back to highs. The trade will be invalidated if it builds below these levels; however, entry here provides favorable reward-to-risk ratio.
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by DMT_Doctor
4