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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-19 - Bearish Exhaustion??Where's the Bearish Price Exhaustion pattern I predicted? Why is price waffling downward? I thought we would see a bigger upward price reversion setup. Yea - I know. I thought we would see a bigger upward price reversion in early trading, too. This is how things go with the markets. You can't force them to do anything. You have to be prepared to make the best of whatever the situation is right now. I was asked recently if I thought buying a few Call options near today's lows was a good idea (related to next week's potential rally setups). Although I won't tell anyone what to do with their trading account - statistically, starting a small "anchor position" relative to price expectations 5 to 15+ days out is not a bad idea. I do that with my swing trades often. If I think something is going to move, but I don't have confirmation of any future price moves on my charts, I may start by buying 5~10 shares as an "Anchor Position" to remind me to keep an eye on it in the future. I created this video to help you understand what I'm thinking and why I'm not too excited about what I see in the SPY. Buckle up. Things may get a little crazy later today with a squeeze. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SP:SPXLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-19 : Bearish Exhaustion (Bullish)Good morning, Today's pattern is a Bearish Exhaustion in Trend mode. This pattern suggests the selling pressure is abating/stalling and price may attempt to revert back up to the $560-561 level over the next few trading days. I believe price is entering a new FLAGGING formation that will resolve sometime near July 24-25 (as my SPY Cycle Patterns have predicted for over 3+ weeks now). I continue to receive many comments from readers, and I appreciate all the love and support you've shown me. Now, as we move into this flagging formation, we will see how the SPY Cycle Patterns can help us scale back out allocation levels (trade sizes) while we wait for the next big trending phase to start. Remember, the SPY/QQQ will likely continue to consolidate into a tighter FLAG type of formation over the next 3+ days before we start to see a moderate bullish price breakout near July 23-24-25. I hope you guys are enjoying all of these videos. It has been a lot of fun creating them for you. The feedback I've received has been incredible. Happy Friday. Get Some today. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-18 EOD Wrap-up - Crush Turns BULLISHGood afternoon everyone, I've been running around taking care of my father the last few days - but these big price rotations have been very exciting. Can you believe how accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns have been over the past 3+ weeks? I'm getting comments from people calling me the GOAT and saying how "galactic" my analysis has been to help their trading. Well, get ready. Now, I'm building a new PineScript utility to help day traders. When I finish it, I hope it will be everything people want to help them stay on top of intraday price swings. Watch this video to learn why the next three days are your opportunity to position for the next big price swing (Bullish). Learn why tomorrow may see price revert higher before stalling into a sideways consolidation channel for about 2~3 days. Then, on or after the 24th, we should see the SPY start to make a solid upward price move - leading to a bullish rally phase targeting the $606 level I suggested months ago. Get ready; this is going to be an exciting price move for all traders. And please share my videos with your friends if you like my work. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
QQQ - Short SwingAfter 18 months of bull run, it is time for a solid correction. In my previous post from February 2023, I outlined my rough count and levels for the last wave up, here are my thoughts for the way down: Assuming we go down, we will likely see last attempts of distribution and maybe another notch up. Some sellers may still need buy orders to fill. This could result in volatile days, nasty dojis, et cetera. I will short every blow off attempt given the RR. No idea how long it takes. If it feels like an eternity, double that. Deep pockets do not care about time. Volume has declined since the last leg up. We might see a sharp move down first, and then take it easy on the second leg. Third or last might be nasty. Nice for day traders, irrelevant swing traders. I have looked at a lot more than you can see in charts. My main target is 360ish (~30%). If that breaks, we might go for 336. If hell breaks lose for whatever reason, sub 300, or lower. There will be outperformers and underperformers, like in this last leg up. Yes, AI is great however, actual value to enterprises and monetisation of it remain to be seen, and we have not even started to regulate or legislate the crap out of it. I might be wrong; surely hope so for permabulls out there but I cannot see any bullish signs here no matter how hard I look. Good Luck
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by fb82
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-18 - CRUSH : Answering Questions Everyone has been messaging me this morning... And I expect that to happen, especially on a day like today. First, most people are asking me if I changed my expectations related to the counter-trend CRUSH pattern. The answer is NO - I don't usually alter my analysis. If the pattern does not do what I expect, I'm usually just sitting on the sidelines waiting for the pattern to be set up. Second, understanding Trending vs. Counter-Trending. Remember, I use a 3 to 5-day average trend when I'm trying to identify the direction of trend. I don't like to look too far back because I've seen these patterns react to very short-term trend changes. I still see the Counter-Trend CRUSH pattern as generally bullish. Today's early morning downward trend is a flash of buyers/longs. Lastly, when would I try to enter any trades today? This video clearly shows why I would wait for the $555.50+ level to be breached before I try to enter any LONG trades. I don't try to pick tops or bottoms. I've seen that/done that before, and it usually ends up VERY BAD (lol). If that's what you want to do - go for it. Me? I'm going to wait for some type of confirmation of the upward price trend and wait out this downward price trend. Once I get solid confirmation of an uptrend, then I may consider jumping into some Longs or Calls. You don't have to trade like a Banshee every day. All you need to do is find one or two good trades daily (if they show up). Tomorrow is another day full of opportunities. So, sit back - watch this video, and learn to be patient. Oh, and don't try to stand in front of a freight train - you'll get RUN OVER. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Major CRUSH Pattern UpdatePlease be very cautious with today's Major CRUSH pattern. These are usually very big-range price bars, and they can be very dangerous if you are caught on the wrong side of a trend. I suggest trading with only 25~50% of your normal capital if you are unsure how you want to trade. This CRUSH pattern will likely result in a larger open~close range than yesterday. We are trying to see if price will hold above the $554~$555 support level. If so, we may see the counter-trend Major CRUSH pattern play out as a rally bar later today. If not, be prepared for a further breakdown in price. We must see that the $554~555 level acts as support, and we must see the price REJECT near that level to prompt any type of price reversal. This is going to be a "Buckle-Up" kind of day. Don't say I didn't warn you about how big CRUSH patterns can be. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SQQQ leveraged inverse QQQ LongSQQQ on the 15 minute chart has trended down into a reversal at the end of the last trading session. A snapshot of the 3 minute chart inlaid shows a reversal about 14:45 EDT 75 minutes before market close. I took a long trade of shares and call options striking $10.00 for June 14th at that point. I am expecting a 5% quick return on the shares and far more on the options. The relative volatility indictor is helpful to further pinpoint the reversal for best entry. (red to green) The set of Hull Moving Averages ( 14 and 35) also serves to signal "death" and "golden" crosses which serve to further aid trade entry accuracy. The relative volume indicator ( of veryfid) also helps in that regard. It has extreme volume spikes in black. OF particular interest, the last 15 minutes of the trading week has a volume spike of buying in SQQQ. This comforts me to know that other traders saw what I saw. I am fortunate that I saw it about 45 minutes before them and got a better price. This demonstrates the value of indicators and knowing how to apply and interpret them. Trading is not as complicated as the pundits and the fee for services and trading room coaches will have you to believe to make you financially dependent on their "guidance and assistance".
NASDAQ:SQQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
2024-07-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment : No deeper analysis needed today. Could have sold anywhere and made money. Tomorrow will be key for next week. Best case for the bears is a weekly close below 19700 but anything below 20000 would suffice. current market cycle: climactic bull trend with overshoots is done. Market will probably range some before we begin a new bear trend over the next months. key levels: 20000 - 21000 - if we break below 20000, next support is 19700 bull case: Bulls see this as a deep two legged pullback but since they are still trading around 20000 and inside the bull channel, their premise lives on. They want a strong reversal tomorrow and since bears were in pain for so long, any good bounce above 20100/20200 could make most bears exit their shorts. Bulls want a retest of the broken channel, which would also be a retest of the ath 20983. After a -3% day, anything in this section is low probability and the best bulls can hope for is to find support and go sideways. Invalidation is below 19700. bear case: Bears are now trading below the multi month and year patterns market broke above, which indeed was a bull trap. The selling was strong enough to let the bulls know the trend is long gone and they are scrambling to secure their profits. Their next target is to break below the bull trend line and below 19700, where many many more bull stops will be. Odds heavily favor the bears for more sideways to down price action. Invalidation is above 21000. short term: Bearish. I think we can hit 19800 and/or the bull trend line. Can we go deeper? Not likely but anything can happen. If the bull trend line breaks tomorrow, this will go full panic selling and the next support would be the 50% pb from the whole bull trend since April, which is 19180. medium-long term: This climactic blow off top is/was the grand finale of this bull trend. Perfect break above multiple patterns which I expect is a bull trap and we will test the various support lines next before the new bear trend will unfold over the next 3-9 months. —unchanged current swing trade: Short since 20800. trade of the day: Sell anywhere and go away until US close. Chart was drawn last Sunday and the big red arrow the week before or so. C target might be couple points too deep but you get the idea.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by priceactiontds
Elliot Wave Analysis/Prediction of QQQ Chart (Monthly Timeframe)Overview The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) chart presents a well-defined Elliott Wave structure over the long term, suggesting a robust bullish trend. Additionally, the RSI is indicating interesting channel movements that reflect changes in market momentum. Key Points: Elliott Wave Analysis: The chart displays a clear Elliott Wave pattern: Wave I started the initial uptrend ($168-$407) Wave II was a corrective phase, resetting the trend. ($407-$254) Wave III marked a significant bullish run, reaching new highs. ($254-$550expected) Wave IV will be a minor corrective phase with support around $450-410 before the anticipated Wave V. The potential for Wave V suggests further upward movement, continuing the long-term bullish trend. From the lows of Wave IV, we expect to see 80% appreciation before May 2027 RSI Trend: The RSI is currently around 72.00, which is in the overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum. The RSI has been moving within a rising channel, suggesting increasing momentum over the recent months. Historical RSI movements show that the QQQ tends to pull back slightly when RSI reaches these levels before continuing the upward trend. Support and Resistance: Immediate support can be found around the $450-$410 level, aligning with the previous consolidation zone and the potential Wave IV corrective phase. Resistance is projected at the current all-time high around $483, with further potential to reach higher levels if Wave V unfolds as expected.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by aldofg
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-17 Opening Price Update - BreakdownI created this short video to help you understand we are still cautious of a continued breakdown in price - retesting deeper support. The breakdown pattern I suggested would happen based on my SPY Cycle Patterns played out perfectly this morning. I expect a type of "V" shaped bottom/base to be set up, but I believe the SPY/QQQ may continue to push downward - attempting to WASH OUT longs and stress the markets before rolling higher into the close today and going much higher tomorrow. Please pay attention to my research. I have to say, the past few weeks of sharing my SPY Cycle Patterns on TV and trying to prove the validity of my technology have been very exciting. There is nothing like putting your neck on the chopping block by making bold predictions for price and watching to see what happens. I was either going to find my patterns work - or find out they don't work. Pay attention to this video because we may have more downward price trending before we find a bottom. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Cycle Pattern Update - Balancing Expectations & RisksAs part of my Plan Your Trade video series, I wanted to share some additional information on how I balance my expectations for price swings/moves with what's changing in the current market environment. Initially, I draw my expectations based on what I see on the chart and how I interpret the SPY Cycle Patterns. From there, I watch the custom index charts I use to measure the underlying market strengths/weaknesses (behind the scenes). Over the past 3+ days, I've been highlighting the huge moves in RSP and IYT. Traders need to understand that this strong bullish move suggests that the US market is actively relating to the end of 2024 and beyond. However, the Exhaustion Breakdown pattern tomorrow (July 17) is very likely to represent a downward price move many traders have already positioned for. Although I expect the downward price move to stay under 2.0-2.25% from today's close, it will still be strong enough to catch some attention. Please watch this video and pay attention to the first 10 minutes and the last 3 minutes. I want to know what all of you think of my SPY Cycle Patterns and if these videos are helping you out. I believe the next 5+ years will be the biggest opportunity of our lives regarding how the US and global markets trend. In my attempt to help as many traders as I can, I need to hear from you. Are these videos helping you or confusing you? What could I do to improve them? Get ready for tomorrow, and remember the next big opportunity starts on July 22 (or so). Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-15 Mid-Day Update - Selling PressureGood afternoon everyone, As I created this video, the SPY was stalling above $562, with lagging bullish price momentum. In this video, I explain why the SPY & QQQ are not selling downward very hard (yet). I also explain why I believe the downward price trend (consolidation/correction) I believe will happen over the next 4+ trading days will only be a -0.75% to -2.0% downward price swing. My analysis of how price will move relative to my SPY Cycle Patterns involves many factors. I rely on more than just the SPY Cycle Patterns; my research includes dozens of other metrics and custom indexes. This video shows how strongly IYT and RSP are rallying right now. If you are going to daytrade any of the indexes, you need to pay attention to those symbols. If IYT (the Transportation Index) is rallying while RSP (the Equal-weight S&P500 ETF) is rallying - guess what? You see forward solid expectations of a broad-sector US stock market rally. Yes, maybe 30 to 90+ days in the future, you may see ignored and undervalued symbols rally more than 30% because of what we see right now. THAT is why I'm trying to share my research. I want to help you become a better, more skilled trader. That includes learning to use technical analysis more efficiently and keeping track of many underlying key metrics to help balance your expectations. Why would anyone want to swing hard for short trades when the IYT, RSP, and dozens of other metrics say, "the US stock market is REFLATING into a broad-sector rally phase"? That is the question you need to ask yourself... Are you getting the best research/analysis to help you build skills you can keep for the rest of your life? Follow my research. Take a minute to go back and watch some of my recent videos. If you want to learn how I can predict market trends 5 to 10+ days in advance, then all you have to do is pay attention to what I show you. I read the charts/data - and then formulate my expectations based on what my SPY Cycle Patterns show me. If something changes, I may adjust my expectations a bit. But, generally, my expectations don't change very much. Let's get started and learn how to distinguish these markets. Watch this video and learn. Watch my other videos and learn. The next 5+ years will be the greatest opportunity of your life. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
Opening (IRA): QQQ August 16th 425 Monied Covered Call... for a 420.39 debit. Comments: After having taken profit on my August 16th 420 CC, re-upping, but at a slightly higher strike ... . The ROC %-age metrics aren't generally what I like to see out of these, but have already realized some gains in the August cycle, so am fine if the ROC %-age isn't stellar here. I'm also selling the -85 delta call against, as opposed to my usual -75. Metrics: Break Even/BPE: 420.39 Max Profit: 4.61 ROC at Max: 1.10% 50% Max: 2.30 ROC at 50% Max: .55%
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by NaughtyPines
BTCUSD Makes Big Breakout - Now Targeting $67k to $71kBitcoin broke away from my flag formation and has established a new bullish price trend targeting FWB:67K to $71k (or higher). This is fantastic news for bitcoin traders as we should see a very solid rally phase over the next 4+ months. Get ready for $95k++, possibly before the end of 2024. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
NIKE INC. AMERICAN SHOOES LOOSING GLOSS, AHEAD OF U.S. RECESSIONNIKE Inc. or Nike is an American multinational company specializing in sportswear and footwear. The company designs, develops, markets and sells athletic footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services. The company was founded by William Jay Bowerman and Philip H. Knight more than 40 years ago, on January 25, 1964, and is headquartered in Beaverton, Oregon. As of July 15, 2024, NIKE (NKE) shares were down more than 33 percent in 2024, making them a Top 5 Underperformer among all the S&P500 components. Perhaps everything would have been "normal", and everything could be explained by the one only unsuccessful December quarter of 2023, when the Company’s revenue decreased by 2 percentage points to $12.6 billion, which turned out to be lower than analyst estimates. But one circumstance makes everything like a "not just cuz". This is all because among the Top Five S&P500 Outsiders, in addition to NIKE, we have also shares of another large shoe manufacturer - lululemon athletica (LULU), that losing over 44 percent in 2024. Influence of macroeconomic factors 👉 The economic downturn hurts most merchandise retailers, but footwear companies face the greatest risk to loose profits, as higher fixed costs lead to larger profit declines when sales come under pressure. 👉 The Nasdaq US Benchmark Footwear Index has fallen more than 23 percent since the start of 2024 as consumer spending is threatened by continued rising home prices, banks' reluctance to lend, high lending rates, and high energy and energy costs. food products - weaken. 👉 In general, the above-mentioned Footwear Sub-Industry Index continues to decline for the 3rd year in a row, being at levels half as low as the maximum values ​​of the fourth quarter of 2021. Investment Domes worsen forecasts... 👉 In the first quarter of 2024, Goldman Sachs made adjustments to its forecast for Nike shares, lowering the target price to $120 from the previous $135, while maintaining a Buy recommendation. The company analyst cited ongoing challenges in Nike's near-term growth trajectory as the main reason for the adjustment, anticipating potential underperformance compared to market peers, noting that Nike's 2025 growth expectations have become "more conservative." 👉 Last Friday, Jefferies Financial Group cut its price target from $90.00 to $80.00, according to a report. 👉 Several other equity analysts also weighed in on NKE earlier in Q2 2024. In a research note on Friday, June 28, Barclays downgraded NIKE from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and lowered their price target for the company from $109.00 to $80.00. 👉 BMO Capital Markets lowered their price target on NIKE from $118.00 to $100.00 and set an overweight rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Morgan Stanley reaffirmed an equal-weight rating and set a $79.00 price target (up from $114.00) on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Oppenheimer reiterated an outperform rating and set a $120.00 price target on shares of NIKE in a research report on Friday, June 28th. 👉 Finally, StockNews.com downgraded NIKE from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, June 21st. ...and it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy Perhaps everything would have been fine, and all the deterioration in forecasts could have been attributed to the stretching spring of price decline, if not for one circumstance - it is not the ratings that are declining due to the decline in share prices, but the shares themselves are being pushed lower and lower, as one after another depressing ones are released analytical forecasts from investment houses. 16 years ago. How it was On January 15, 2008, shares of many shoe companies, including Nike Inc. (NKE) and Foot Locker Inc. (FL) fell after investment giant Goldman Sachs (GS) slashed its stock price targets, warning that the U.S. recession would drag down the companies' sales in 2008 as consumers spend more cautiously. "The recession will further increase the impact of the key headwind of a limited number of key commodity trends needed to fuel consumer interest in the sector," Goldman Sachs said in a note to clients. In early 2008, Goldman downgraded athletic shoe retailer Foot Locker to "sell" from "neutral" and cut its six-month share price target from $17 to $10, saying it expected U.S. sales margins to continue to decline in 2008 despite store closures. The downgrade was a major blow to Foot Locker, which by early 2008 had already seen its shares fall 60 percent over the previous 12 months as it struggled with declining sales due to declining demand for athletic shoes at the mall and a lack of exciting fashion trends in the market. sports shoes. Like now, at those times Goldman retained its recommendation rating to “buy” Nike Inc shares, based on general ideas about the Company’s increasing weight over the US market, topped off with theses about the Company’s international visibility, as well as robust demand ahead of the Beijing Olympics. However Goldman lowered its target price for the shares from $73 to $67 ( from $18.25 to $16.75, meaning two 2:1 splits in Nike stock in December 2012 and December 2015). Although Nike, at the time of the downturn in forecasts, in fact remained largely unscathed by the decline in demand for athletic footwear among US mall retailers, it reported strong second-quarter results in December 2007 (and even beating forecasts for strong demand for its footwear in the US and growth abroad) , Goldman Sachs' forecasts for Nike's revenue and earnings per share to decline were justified. Later Nike' shares lost about 45 percent from their 2008 peaks, and 12 months later reached a low in the first quarter of 2009 near the $40 mark ($10 per share, taking into account two stock splits). The decline in Foot Locker shares from the 2008 peaks 2009 lows was even about 80 percent, against the backdrop of the global recession and the banking crisis of 2007-09. Will history repeat itself this time..!? Who knows.. However, the main technical graph says, everything is moving (yet) in this direction.
NYSE:NKE
by Pandorra
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-16 - Price Starting To FLAG OUTGood morning everyone, Today's video should be an important warning to prepare for prices to move into a tight, consolidated, FLAGGING type of trend. Remember, you'll hear me say price either FLAGS or TRENDS—that's it. If you understand these FLAGS are price constructs that present mechanical price structures, we can then use them to analyze future price structures. It all becomes clear that price moves in logical structures related to energy, vibration, amplitude, frequency, and cycles. Without getting too deep into the abstract of price theory, let's focus on where to find opportunities... Watch this video. Over the next 5+ trading days, you will find 35 very clear price swings, which I believe will provide ample opportunity for skilled traders. Beyond those 35 bigger swings, you should get ready to sit and wait (in CASH) for the bigger opportunities to set up between July 22 and 25 (for a rally to start). Smart traders must understand you can't force the markets to move as you want. You must sit back and wait for the right opportunities for your trades (or you'll get chopped to pieces). In this video, I've clearly laid out what I expect to see happen for the SPY/QQQ over the next 10+ days. There are still opportunities for skilled daytraders. My only warning is to START SMALL and build positions within your risk tolerance levels. Don't swing for the fences in this market for the next 5+ days. Stay safe. There will be more significant price swings starting on the 24th or 25th of July. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1