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$DOCN Base on Base Ready to Breakout?I got into this one on Mar 6th when it re-took the 20 EMA (green) where it also found support at the 50 DMA (red). My plan was to bring up to a full-sized position on a breakout over 41.07. However, on the 13th when it did break above that it promptly pulled back. Fast forward to today once it moved back over Friday’s high (which again found support at the 20 EMA) I did make it a full-sized position. The true breakout is yet to come. It needs to close over 41.07 for that to happen. From the low in November to today this stock is up over 100%. I think it can double again. My plan is to add anytime it bounces back off the 20 EMA. My stop will be on a “decisive” close under the 20 EMA but not more than 5% loss, whichever is less. This may be one you want to look at. If so, make it your own trade and follow your own rules. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:DOCNLong
by jaxdog
$SCHW Cup with Handle FormationIf you look at this chart of Schwab, you can easily see the cup w/ handle formation. It has broken the blue downtrend line and is taking on good volume this morning. I have started a one-half size position here as the risk reward is exceptionally good. My stop will be below the most recent low which also corresponds with the 20 EMA (green). This could easily move to upper band of resistance around 71.40. All TBD. The chart I am using is the All-In-One LevelUp tool available here on TV. Check it out. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:SCHWLong
by jaxdog
$Z Regains 50 DMANASDAQ:Z has had a nice move off its recent bottom of around 76%. Sorry to say I missed it. However, it has now been consolidating those gains for about 80 days now. It recently dipped below the 50 DMA (Red) and has now recovered for the last three trading days. I like that the 5 DMA (White) is now above all the Moving Averages. I have started an early entry here in anticipation of a breakout above the blue horizontal line above. All TBD. I will place my stop on a close below the 50 DMA which makes for a good risk reward trade. See Notes on chart for more details. The chart I am using is LevelUp All-In-One available here on TV. It has a lot of information at a glance all built in. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:ZLong
by jaxdog
🔜 S&P 500. A key point between Bull Extension and Bear ReversalThe S&P 500 Index ( SPY) Wednesday closed down -0.22%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA closed up +0.10%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index (QQQ) closed down -0.83%. Stocks Wednesday saw downward pressure from the +4.1 bp rise in the 10-year T-note and a sell-off of more than -2% in key chip stocks. However, the Dow Jones Industrials saw support from blue chips such as 3M (MMM), with a gain of +5.42%, and gains of more than +1% in Travelers (TRV), Chevron (CVX), Caterpillar (CAT), Home Depot (HD), NIKE (NKE), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Coca Cola (KO). Stocks on Wednesday gave back some ground after Tuesday’s +1.5% rally in the Nasdaq 100 index that was sparked by optimism that the U.S. Feb CPI report was not as bad as feared and the Feb core CPI dipped to a 2-3/4 year low of +3.8% y/y. However, the Feb headline CPI of +3.2% y/y was slightly above expectations of +3.1% and was 0.2 points above last June’s 2-3/4 year low of +3.0%. Both CPI measures remain well above the Fed’s +2% inflation target. Fed Breadcrumbs Fed Chair Powell said last week that the Fed is “not far” from having enough confidence to cut interest rates. However, the markets are discounting the odds at virtually zero that the Fed will cut interest rates at its meeting next week since inflation is still too far above target. The odds for a rate cut are much better for the June meeting. The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 1% for next week’s March 19-20 FOMC meeting, 13% for the following meeting on April 30-May 1, and 73% for the meeting after that on June 11-12. Economic Reports In some positive news for the housing market, the MBA mortgage applications index rose +7.1% in the week ended March 8, after rising +9.7% in the previous week. Mortgage purchases rose +4.7%, and refinancings rose +12.2%. The MBA’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the latest week fell to a 5-week low of 6.84% from 7.02% in the previous week. The mortgage rate is currently only 13 bp above the 10-month low of 6.71% posted in December. On the U.S. economic report front, the markets are awaiting Thursday’s U.S. retail sales and PPI reports. Feb retail sales are expected to show an increase of +0.8% m/m, reversing Jan’s -0.8% decline. Feb retail sales ex-autos are expected to rise +0.5% m/m, reversing most of Jan’s -0.6% decline. The Feb final-demand PPI is expected to rise to +1.2% y/y from Jan’s +0.9%, but the core PPI is expected to ease to +1.9% y/y from Jan’s +2.0%. Interest Rates June 10-year T-notes (ZNM24) Wednesday closed down -7.5 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield rose by +4.1 bp to 4.192%, up from last Friday’s 5-week low of 4.034%. T-note prices saw weakness on (1) carry-over bearishness from Tuesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI report, and (2) Wednesday’s slight rise in the 10-year breakeven inflation expectations rate to 2.31%. T-note prices also saw supply overhang with the Treasury in the market again Wednesday, along with strong corporate bond issuance. The Treasury Wednesday sold $25 billion of 30-year T-bonds, after selling $54 billion of 3-year T-notes on Monday and $42 billion of 10-year T-notes on Tuesday. Inflation Fears Oil prices rose about 3% to a four-month high on Thursday (March 14) on a surprise withdrawal in US crude inventories reported on Wednesday (March 13), a bigger-than-expected drop in US petrol stocks and potential supply disruptions after recent terrorist Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Putin says Ukraine trying to disrupt Russia's presidential election. Brent crude oil futures rose to nearly $85 per barrel - the highest mark since November, 2023. In technical terms, crude oil futures are on positive path in 2024 with near 9% YTD return, attempt to hold firmly above weekly SMA(52), while the epic triangle' breakthrough can be nearby. High Risk - High Reward S&P500 index (SPY) is on positive path in 2024 with +9.28% YTD return in this time. This is a 3rd highest YTD return by this time of year, next to 2012 and 2019 returns by mid-March. Technical graph for S&P500 indicates that we are near upper line of upside channel, thanks to recent Santa rally and slight signs of US Govt Treasuries buyout in Q4 2023. Following this path, there can a possible Bull extension, as Reversed Head-and-Shoulders Price Pattern can be in further development. On the other hand, inflation fears can extend also, just to erase all the Bullish gain in 2024.
AMEX:SPY
by Pandorra
Please God, Just One More Bubble. What Crying 2000's Are CallingChastened by the tech bust, venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have spent the last couple of years taking startups back to basics. No longer could they expect to turn an idea scribbled on a napkin into an instant company and cash out in a couple of years. To get funding and go public, companies had to have solid technology and business models, experienced management, reasonable valuations -- and, above all, profits. This reassuring regime made it easy to laugh at a bumper sticker sighted around the Valley last year: "Please God, just one more bubble." Now, it looks less like a joke than a warning. Too many tech investors, from Wall Street to Sand Hill Road, seem to be ignoring why they crashed after the 1990s hit a dead end. Venture capitalists are pouring money into look-alike startups in nascent sectors such as social networking. Even after a recent swoon, stocks of some dot-coms, such as eBay Inc. (EBAY ), look pricey. And not only are more money-losing companies going public, initial valuations can be distinctly frothy. Google Inc.'s imminent offering, for instance, could value the search engine phenom at $36 billion. Says Bill Burnham, managing partner of the VC firm Softbank Capital Partners: "Some people expect the good old days will be back and they can party like it's 1999." Indeed, the rise in shaky initial public offerings may be the most worrisome indicator that not all investors have learned their lesson. Some 44% of the companies going public so far this year were losing money, compared with only 30% last year, according to the investment bank Renaissance Capital. "They've lowered the bar," says Renaissance analyst Paul Bard. Why? "The VCs are pushing their companies to go out," says Jef Graham, CEO of networking startup Peribit Networks Inc., which has held off going public for now. "Bankers are like sharks smelling blood in the water." That was a part of Bloomberg publication , dated on August 25, 2004. It's gone 20 years or so.. - Something changed? - Nope. Nasdaq-100 is near the same 'red lines'.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Pandorra
1
$IBM 3-Weeks Tight PatternStodgy old NYSE:IBM has had quite a run over the last few months. I am sorry to say I have missed it. Earnings are now out of the way and as you can see, we have a 3-weeks tight pattern. It has recently been setting new 52 week highs as well. If you are a Wiiliam O’Neil follower, he states in his writings that a 3-weeks tight pattern can lead to some serious gains going forward. If you like you can read about it here: www.investors.com In any event, I have started a ½ half sized position here and have my stop just below the most recent low. Seems like a pretty good risk reward to me. But it’s all TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. For those wondering, the chart I am using is LevelUp right here on TV. You might want to research it, I find it helpful.
NYSE:IBMLong
by jaxdog
2
$SPX and Economic DataI do not know how long this has been available on @TradingView , but I just discovered it and wanted to make sure if you didn't know about it, I would bring it too your attention. On the SP:SPX chart at the bottom when economic data is going to be announced or recently announced, click on the "Flag" icon(s) to see what it is. For example, jobless claims, unemployment, CPI and a host of others. I hope this post helps someone. Great Tool TV! Okay, for some reason when I post this chart the flags did not show. But look at your own SP:SPX chart and you will see them.
SP:SPX
by jaxdog
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) - Resistance and Support Levels - Weekly chartBitcoin (BTC/USD) price is uptrending and currently testing all-time high price levels, again in March 2024. Bitcoin price needs to break and hold above $70000 to continue the uptrend this year in 2024. Weekly Resistance pivot point levels are: $70000, $80693, $90000, $98690, and $116687. Weekly Support pivot point levels are: $60000, $52511, $40000, $34514, and $24329. Yellow lines represent Trendlines for either resistance or support. Orange lines represent price Pivot Points for either resistance or support. Weekly chart consists of nearly 11 years of Bitcoin price data (March 2013 to March 2024).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by NoFomoCharts
a daily price action after hour update - nasdaqGood evening and i hope you are well. Today bulls got another very strong day and either retested the highs or made new ones. ECB paused as expected but markets did not care one bit. Just bullish price action since EU open. Tomorrow more macroschmackro data which could lead to big spikes on a choppy week. I can not rule out market will interpret numbers bullish and we have another insane rally into the weekend. nasdaq bull case: Bulls had a strong bull trend day but made a lower high. After US close we broke out of the big wedge and if this get’s follow through, odds favor that this was just a bigger two legged move inside a big trading range. Bulls need to stay above the 1h 20ema around 18180 to keep btfd going and going for new highs tomorrow. bear case: If bears can generate good selling pressure here and trade below 18100, they might have a chance of bulls taking profits enough again to trade back below 18000. The after hours sell-off was strong enough to get a second leg and i still expect a bigger second leg after Tuesday’s sell-off short term: neutral until Fridays NFP - will probably keep ranging between 17830 - 18400 medium-long term: bearish but first market must form a credible top trade of the day: btfd. no reason to exit longs until US close
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
TSLA's triangle just broke—can it reclaim or will it slide?NASDAQ:TSLA reported quarterly earnings after hours. The initial reaction has been negative but that can sometimes change during the volatility that continues during the conference call and later the next few days. This post will not delve into the fundamentals as a some prior posts have done. After all, markets are presumably efficient and discount all new information very rapidly, and surely algorithimic programs have already processed the report and its ramifications for the future. So the following charts will look at technical analysis alone. From a technical perspective, TSLA had been in a large triangle that appears to be breaking over the last couple of weeks. This is true on both logarithmically scaled charts and linear / arithmetic charts. The log-scaled chart shows a somewhat bigger break so far than the linear scaled chart. Supplementary Chart A shows a logarithmically scaled chart of this triangle. Supplementary Chart A (Log) Supplementary Chart B (Linear) TSLA has been in an uptrend since its bear-market lows in early January 2023. But as prior posts have discussed, the next larger degree of trend is surely sideways, going back to the all-time highs. A simple box drawn around price on a monthly or weekly chart since even somewhat before the all-time highs shows this sideways range. Next, consider that since the all-time high was reached, TSLA retraced to its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and failed on its first attempt at cracking that level as shown in the next chart. Supplementary Chart C (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) Furthermore, TSLA has struggled mightily at its all-time high anchored VWAP. At least six major breakout attempts above this VWAP have failed since TSLA formed its all-time high. See Supplemental Chart D below, showing the all-time-high VWAP in magenta. So have the failures to succeed in a break above this VWAP exhausted themselves so that next one or two will surely succeed as the bulls might want to argue? Or have the failures only reinforced the bears' case? Until price can recover this $234 area, it's tough to be bullish on TSLA. Supplementary Chart D More recent anchored VWAPs also make the bull case difficult to see for the time being. These are shown in the next supplementary chart. The key levels from these VWAPs are $241.72 and $214.62. Supplementary Chart E (Other Major VWAPs) And price hasn't been able to poke a head above the YTD anchored VWAP either the last 3 weeks as shown in Supplementary Chart F. Supplementary Chart F (YTD VWAP) Finally, consider that the major 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the current uptrend from January 2023 lies at $177.25. This is an all-important support level for bulls who think TSLA is merely consolidating its uptrend from January 2023 lows. Supplementary Chart G (Another 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the January 2023 lows to July 2023 highs) These technicals don't present a trade idea or attempt to reinforce a bear or bull case for anyone who is so positioned. But it does attempt to read the technical landscape as it now stands, without any sort of bullish or bearish bias from fundamentals or macro environment. The overall case isn't bullish until key levels can be recovered. Until then, lows might be tested if price can't quickly find its way back into the consolidative safety of the triangle shown. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
9
SPY Correction Coming?Hello everyone! First two new charts for 2024. Another year another upside logic market. We're breaking ATH with continually decaying economic data, new banking troubles, new wars, and an election year and markets ignore it all. It's a Fed controlled market so mysterious!? Anyhow, in this chart I did a vague not so accurate EW that began Jan 2022 that bottomed in Oct 2022 which basically bounced off the Feb 2020 highs which pushed us into this new bull market. We finally broke the ATH for the S&P today with 5015ish, which makes me believe we should soon see a corrective wave hit. The first support will be early Jan support of 475. If this stays within this channel, we should see the correction over (C) at the same level as (2) of the bear market of 2022 which is March/April of 455ish giving us about a 10% correction. Now, this is all IF markets go as planned and there are no external factors influencing selling such as a larger scale geopolitical war, banking failures and so on. This is based off a market that is going at the current pace. That being said, I do see a major geopolitical event that will shake markets to their core but until then, we base our market moves on the Feds dovish nonsense. Technicals: - RSI, MACD are about peaked. - VIX is at critical levels
AMEX:SPY
by WorldEconomics
$AAPL Ready for Bottom Fishing?NASDAQ:AAPL I like how this is setting up. It looks like it has held the $180 “area” for a month now. It has had some good rallies from that area. I am looking for it to break above that steep blue downtrend line. It has captured the 5 DMA (white) and looks like it could take the 10 EMA too. All TBD. My plan is to go long on a break of the downtrend line with a stop just below that day’s low. If the market is going to move higher $APPL needs to participate, IMO. Of course, we must wait and see. The chart I am using is LevelUp available here on TV. Checking it out, I think you will like it as well as I do. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by jaxdog
2
$PFE Ready for Bottom Fishing?NYSE:PFE is certainly a dog but, it has put in a higher low and the moving averages are starting to turn up. I like to go bottom fishing occasionally. PFE is my new candidate. I have an alert set just above the current price where it may move above short-term resistance, around the thin blue line. If it triggers and I take this trade, I can put a stop close by at either the day low or the previous day’s low. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:PFELong
by jaxdog
8
QQQ to $392Trading Pattern QQQ has formed an ascending channel which may prove to be very lucrative for derivative trading. Utilizing Elliott Impulse and Correction Waves within the support and resistance lines, Wave 4 may dip as low as $392 which is a few dollars shy of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Technical Indicators A bearish RSI divergence has been present since the share price surpassed $400; the RSI highs retain a negative slope while the share price highs have a positive slope (both reflected in yellow). This supports the Elliott Wave Theory and ascending channel pattern as the share price is currently at, or soon approaching, the crest of Wave 3 as well as the ascending channel resistance line. QQQ may experience a slight bump upwards indicated by the RSI line (green) which appears to be close to crossing the MA line (red) from beneath. However, due to its close proximity to overbought territory, I believe selling pressure will begin soon after as might be indicated by the MACD. The MACD technical indicator shows a tightly wound MACD line (green) and Signal line (red). The MACD line is within dangerous territory of crossing its Signal line from above which is a bearish indicator and suggests an increase in selling pressure followed by a correction in share value.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Shepherd_Investor
6