QQQ
MSFT EARNINGS CHART - PRICE TARGETS AND TRENDSMSFT
Trying to get multiple charts done so description will be short.
Sorry to those asking about my website. Work in progress, and progress was slowed due to migraines.
Basically, Short term shows a drop, mid term shows a pump, and long term shows a drop.
With this in mind, it sets up strategy to keep risk to a minimum during earnings.
IF MSFT is pushing 336-342 around close. Look to see a final pump to maybe 348-354, with some fast retracements in the AH.
IF MSFT is around 326-327 around 10am-11am, I would look to buy call options, and I would sell those call options before close.
Personally, I see the same indicators setup on almost all the technology stocks, THEY ALL show a small pump to the topside, with a near 20% retracement.
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels
SUMMARY:
1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken.
2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones.
3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames).
4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise.
The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution.
Supplementary Chart A
If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames.
Supplementary Chart B
Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors.
Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many.
Supplementary Chart C
Supplementary Chart D
Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals.
In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA.
What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity.
Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held.
Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows:
Conservative: $250-$255
Aggressive: $275-$280
Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310
As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility.
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Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Trend Lines & Their Significance in Minervini's Trading StrategyIntroduction
In the world of stock trading, trend lines are vital tools for investors and traders alike. Mark Minervini, an acclaimed swing trader, is known for his strategic use of trend lines in assessing the strength of stock movements. This article delves into Minervini's approach, highlighting how he utilizes trend lines to identify optimal trade entries and exits, and emphasizes the significance of upward trend consistency in his methods.
Utilizing Trend Lines to Gauge Stock Movement Strength
Minervini leverages trend lines to evaluate the momentum and strength of a stock's movement. By connecting the lows in an upward trend or the highs in a downward trend, he creates a visual representation of the stock’s trajectory. This technique allows him to discern the stock's current trend, be it bullish or bearish, and gauge its strength. A steeper trend line indicates a stronger movement, whereas a flatter line suggests a weaker trend. In Minervini’s strategy, the angle and longevity of these trend lines are critical factors in assessing a stock's potential for continued movement in its current direction.
Identifying Trade Entries and Exits
Trend lines are more than just indicators of stock movement; they are crucial for identifying potential trade entries and exits. Minervini uses two types of trend lines: support and resistance. A support line is drawn along the low points of a stock's price, indicating a level where the price tends to find support and bounce back upwards. Conversely, a resistance line connects the high points, highlighting a price level where the stock often faces selling pressure.
For Minervini, a break above a resistance trend line signals a potential entry point, indicating that the stock might continue to climb. Similarly, a break below a support line might suggest an exit point or a short-selling opportunity, indicating that the stock could be entering a downtrend. These trend lines, therefore, play a pivotal role in his decision-making process, guiding him on when to enter or exit a trade.
The Importance of Upward Trend Consistency
In Minervini's method, consistency in an upward trend is a key factor. He looks for stocks that show a sustained upward trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which are typically indicative of strong buyer interest and positive momentum. This consistency not only suggests a robust bullish sentiment but also provides a measure of safety, as stocks in a consistent uptrend are less likely to experience sudden drops.
Moreover, Minervini emphasizes the importance of volume in these trends. An upward trend accompanied by increasing volume can be a sign of strong investor confidence, adding further credence to the strength of the trend. Conversely, an upward trend with declining volume may signal a loss of momentum, prompting a more cautious approach.
Conclusion
Mark Minervini’s use of trend lines is a testament to their importance in stock trading. By carefully analyzing these lines for both support and resistance, and prioritizing stocks with a consistent upward trend, he is able to make informed decisions about trade entries and exits. For traders looking to enhance their strategies, incorporating Minervini's approach to trend lines can be a valuable addition to their trading toolkit, offering a clearer perspective on the strengths and potential directions of stock movements.
NVDA "AI King" BreakoutNvidia stock NVDA price just hit a new all time high Monday after the chip company unveiled new products and partnerships at the annual Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
The company rolled out three new chips that will let gamers, designers and other users make better use of AI on their personal computers.
Technically speaking, the stock NVDA is still having the room to test $530/$544 projected targets on the short term.
oil and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further read my post from may:
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in may of 2023 i called the top on oil and projected we come down into the $50-60 range. we ended up playing it out quite flawlessly. a lot of people were very angry at me for whatever reason back when i was calling for the top, probably due to their elevated levels of confidence and greed. those people got wiped out.
today, i bring to you a follow-up prediction, in line with my us10y prediction.
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i'm predicting that oil hits $181 per barrel over the next year, which will cause a secondary wave of inflation.
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oil w5 algo = $181
us10y and the secondary wave of inflation.before you read any further, read my post from april:
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it has been awhile since i've given a public update on the us10y and my general theory about where i believe these rates are headed.
back in april of 2023, i gave an upside target of 5.9% for the us10y.
as of today, i'm raising the range for that upside target into the window between 6-9%, going into the end of 2024.
i'm aware that jpow has mentioned in the last few fed meetings that he has no intention of raising the rates any further, but i'm seeing a significant development on many of the charts this week which tells me otherwise. so i'm calling him out on his bluff.
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us10y w5 algo = 6-9%
✨❄️🌟 The Tutorial How-To Find a Magic on TradingViewFinancial markets just finished its memorial 2023.
Whatever the numbers at the “Closing bell”, on your monitors and in your portfolios, there is no doubt that 2023 year’s Santa Rally will go down in history as one of the most outstanding in many years.
In November and December, 2023 the U.S. stock market was rallying for the 9th consecutive week in a row.
This was the longest ever upside streak in SP:SPX over the past 20 years, since the fourth quarter of 2003.
Well.. just try to answer what happened with the market the past one time.
Happy New 2024 Year!
✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠✨❄️🌟🎅🎊🌲💫⛄️🌠
QQQ Will Explode! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for QQQ below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 396.75
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 405.80
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$AAOI Bull Flag?I have been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:AAOI and wanted to get in a couple of weeks ago but did not want to chase it.
It has now pulled back and the last couple of days have been explosive. I took a one-third sized position yesterday (1/4/24) and added two times today to bring up to a full position.
The proper or traditional entry is yet to come as it breaks above the upper downtrend line of the Bull Flag. I like to get in as early as possible so that is why I took a small position yesterday as it looked to be confirming a reversal. Today is strong so I brought it up to full size. I may look to add even more on the next consolidation level. All TBD.
I have two stops. On todays add-ons it is just below today’s low. On the original buy it is below the Jan 3rd low.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
$GM Ready for Flat Base Breakout?NYSE:GM I have an alert set right on this flat base resistance line. Should it trigger I will go long with a stop just under the days low. See chart for more details.
Wolfe Research Upgrades General Motors to Outperform From Perform
Jan 4, 202408:27 EST
General Motors Company
GM has an average rating of outperform and price targets ranging from $27 to $95, according to analysts polled by Capital IQ.
QQQ is sick more fed news on Friday Short StrategyQQQ is here on a 30-minute chart showing its pivot down from a near-term high in a descending
regression channel. Advanced RSI and MACD indicators are used to better pinpoint short entries
in this downtrend especially with put options contracts with expirations every other day.
Greed has turned to fear. Those equipped with experience and risk management can capitalize
now to build capital for when the bull run resumes.
$DJI now in short term downtrend, NDX, SPX & RUT already wereLooks like the TVC:DJI is in a short term downtrend.
NASDAQ:NDX SP:SPX & TVC:RUT all are in short term down trends which begin couple days or so ago.
TVC:VIX is at higher end of the recent pattern and it keeps poking it.
*(TOOK THIS FROM ANOTHER POST
Remember, the more something is poked the weaker it becomes
Picture paper holding a marble
Poke with a needle
Poke enough & that marble falls
Same works to the upside)*
The TVC:TNX or10 yr #yield looks to be setting up decently on the 4hr intraday.
#stocks
NDX Nasdaq100 Fell 8.60% After the Last U.S. Credit Downgradeitch Ratings downgraded the US debt rating on Tuesday, moving it from the highest AAA rating to AA+, citing concerns about "a steady deterioration in standards of governance."
This downgrade happened following last-minute negotiations among lawmakers to reach a debt ceiling deal earlier this year, raising the risk of the nation's first default.
In the past, a similar credit downgrade had a significant impact on the NDX, which fell 8.60% in just two weeks. Back in August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's, one of the major credit rating firms, downgraded U.S. debt after another major debt ceiling battle.
Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that while the news of Standard & Poor's being the first to downgrade 12 years ago was substantial, investors had already adjusted their perceptions of the world's most important bond market, recognizing that it was no longer a pure AAA. Nonetheless, Fitch's recent decision to downgrade is still significant.
In the current scenario, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.15%, reaching its highest level since November 2022.
As for the price target for this year, it remains at $16650, as shown in the chart below:
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!