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QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Price Prediction for 2024This was my price prediction for QQQ in 2023. I was bullish, but not enough: Considerations about 2024: In the July 2023 meeting, the FOMC chose to raise interest rates to a range of 5.25%–5.50%, marking the 11th rate hike in the current cycle aimed at mitigating heightened inflation. The prevailing consensus among market experts hints at a potential shift in strategy, suggesting that the Fed might commence rate cuts later in 2024 as inflation gradually aligns with the Fed's 2% target. Statistically, historical data indicates that approximately 11 months after the cessation of interest rate increases, a recession tends to manifest. This pattern places us around June 2024, aligning with my prediction of a dip in the QQQ to approximately $370. Given that 2024 is an election year, there's an additional layer of complexity in predicting market behavior. Despite the anticipated mid-year dip, my inclination is that the QQQ will conclude the year on a bullish note. This optimistic outlook hints at the onset of a 3-5 year AI bubble cycle, with the QQQ boasting a year-end price target of $460. The integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors is expected to catalyze market growth and innovation, propelling the QQQ to new heights by the close of 2024.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by TopgOptions
2024 Investment OutlookIntroduction The current economic landscape is marked by higher interest rates and increased volatility, a departure from the stability observed in the decade following the global financial crisis. Unlike before, central banks face challenges in stabilizing economies due to production constraints and tougher trade-offs in addressing inflation versus supporting growth. The evolving economic environment is shaped by structural factors such as shrinking workforces, geopolitical fragmentation, and the low-carbon transition. The prevailing uncertainty has led to a disconnect between cyclical narratives and structural realities, contributing to market volatility. Despite apparent U.S. economic growth, it reflects a recovery from the pandemic shock rather than robust expansion. The key implication is persistently higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions, prompting a need for a more active portfolio approach. In this new regime, macro insights are expected to be valuable, with greater volatility and return dispersion creating opportunities for investment expertise. Context is everything In 2023, hopes for a soft landing in the U.S. economy have been fueled by robust growth in the third quarter, a significant decline in core inflation, and the creation of nearly 7 million jobs since January 2022. However, taking a broader perspective reveals that the economy is still recovering from the pandemic, with job gains largely recouping those lost during the initial impact. Despite strong job growth, overall economic activity has been below pre-pandemic expectations, averaging less than 1.8% annual growth since the pandemic. The key insight is that a structural change has occurred, leading to a weaker growth path accompanied by higher inflation, increased interest rates, and elevated debt levels. The advice for investors is to focus on how the economy and markets are adjusting to this new regime rather than relying on a typical cyclical playbook, as the traditional approach may be misguided. Managing Macro Risk Investors are advised to neutralize macro exposures or, with high conviction, deliberately choose exposures. Analyst estimates for S&P 500 equity earnings show increased dispersion, emphasizing the potential rewards for macro insight. Despite the adjustment to structurally higher inflation and policy rates, markets vary in their response. The uneven adjustment is highlighted by factors such as surging U.S. 10-year yields compared to relatively unchanged DM equity earnings yields. This adjustment is considered more critical than the possibility of a technical recession, warranting caution on broad exposures. The long-term risk of higher inflation increases if borrowing costs remain elevated, potentially surpassing spending on Medicare in the future. A rise in term premium and expectations of increased yield volatility led to a tactical neutral stance and a strategic underweight position in long-term U.S. Treasuries. The preferred strategic overweight is in inflation-linked bonds. Harnessing mega forces The concept of mega forces offers a strategic approach to steering portfolios, focusing on building blocks that go beyond traditional asset classes. These forces, seen as independent drivers of corporate profits, provide potential opportunities that may be uncorrelated with macro cycles. Mega forces, such as digital disruption and artificial intelligence (AI), are already reshaping markets, as demonstrated by the outperformance of U.S. tech compared to the broader market. The winners and losers in the mega forces landscape can influence tactical views, impacting stances on developed market equities even in less favorable macroeconomic conditions. Embracing mega forces is presented as a means for investors to outperform static allocations, leveraging the far-reaching consequences that create new investment opportunities. Examples include private credit filling the lending void due to capital pressures on banks, demographic shifts shaping production and growth limitations, and the emergence of climate resilience as an investment theme within the low-carbon transition. AI intelligence revolution Advances in computing hardware and deep learning have marked an inflection point for Artificial Intelligence (AI) since late 2022, with expectations of exponential progress in innovation. While tracking AI investment opportunities across geographies and sectors involves high uncertainty, a technology "stack" approach is suggested to assess these opportunities. The stack includes cloud infrastructure and chips as the foundational layer, followed by models, data, and data infrastructure, and finally, applications that harness innovation. The tech industry, particularly led by major tech firms, is seen pivoting toward AI, indicating the potential for an intelligence revolution. The current position is perceived to be between the first and second layers of the technology stack, with the last layer anticipated to follow. This shift has implications beyond near-term productivity gains. Early research suggests a positive correlation between increased AI patents and broad earnings growth, indicating rising economic value attributed to these patents. Despite uncertainties surrounding the future value of AI patents and their translation into profitable enterprises, there is an overweight recommendation on the AI theme in developed market stocks for the next six to twelve months. The tech sector's earnings resilience is expected to persist, serving as a significant driver of overall U.S. corporate profit growth in 2024. Investing in climate resilience The emphasis of this chapter is on helping investors navigate the risks and opportunities associated with the energy transition. Beyond renewables, traditional energy companies can also outperform, especially during supply-demand mismatches. While the energy transition often dominates headlines, a related and crucial investment theme is climate resilience. This involves preparing for, adapting to, and withstanding climate hazards, as well as rebuilding after climate damage. Climate resilience encompasses various solutions like early monitoring systems, air conditioning to address heatwaves, and retrofitting buildings for better weather resistance. Given the anticipated increase in climate damages, significant investment is required to enhance society's resilience. The economic impact of climate damages is growing rapidly, and there is a rising demand for products and services that contribute to climate resilience. This theme is identified as potentially becoming a mainstream investment theme over time. The three sub-themes within climate resilience—assessing and quantifying risks, managing risk, and rebuilding physical infrastructure—create a framework to identify opportunities across sectors (such as industrials and technology) and asset classes. Deepening fragmentation Cascading crises have accelerated global fragmentation and the emergence of competing geopolitical and economic blocs. Countries like Vietnam, Mexico, the Gulf states, India, and Brazil are seen as potential beneficiaries of supply chain diversification, establishing ties with multiple blocs, and possessing valuable resources. In this more competitive global landscape, a surge of investment in strategic sectors such as technology, energy, defense, and infrastructure is expected. Opportunities also exist in firms specializing in managing and reducing cybersecurity risks. Increased geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and structural competition between the U.S. and China are acknowledged. The current global situation is characterized by the highest number of volatile situations in decades, according to the UN. The year 2024 is anticipated to be the biggest election year in history, with the U.S. and Taiwan elections deemed particularly significant. Navigating this new world order requires holistic portfolio strategies that aim to both seize opportunities and mitigate risks, rather than focusing solely on avoiding risks or positioning for specific events. Conclusion Our core conviction is that investors need to be more dynamic with portfolios in the new regime. The outlook for 2024 suggests that investors should take a proactive stance, avoiding autopilot investing. The advice is to be intentional in managing portfolio risk, with an expectation of deploying more risk over the next year.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by financialflagship
$DJI vs $NDX vs RatesSince the "outside" day. The DJ:DJI index has flip flopped above and below the top part of the outside day line. It wants to push higher but when NASDAQ:NDX craters, like it's doing today, it's a lil tough. Since we're doing intraday charts, let's do DJ:DJI as well. What's the biggest thing that sticks out to you on the last chart? Hint: Look at the bottom 2 panes. It could all tie in with a bump in higher rates. IMO not a top. Not enough euphoria. But could be a short term top. We'll see.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Calling Stock Market top at Nasdaq 17291 NQ QQQPredicting specific dates for stock market tops or bottoms is a highly speculative endeavor and can be influenced by a multitude of unpredictable factors. While technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other methodologies can offer insights into market movements, they cannot reliably pinpoint exact dates for significant market turning points. If you are referencing a specific prediction or analysis from an external source about the NASDAQ reaching 17,291 on January 4th or January 8th, it would be essential to consider the basis for that prediction, the underlying data, and the track record of the source making the prediction. Investors and traders should always conduct thorough research, consider multiple sources of information, and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions based on predictions or forecasts.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
$KWEB Volatility Contraction or Top of Downtrend Channel? AMEX:KWEB the Chinese stock ETF is looking like a due or die situation here. The negative is that it is in a longer-term downtrend. It is now just hitting the underside of the 50 DMA; it is below the 40 Week MA and nearing the top of the downtrend channel. Here are the positives; it seems to have stopped the downtrend with a slight undercut and rally from the previous low. It is above the shorter-term MAs and looking like it might get over the 50 DMA. Looking at volume, there is buying with green volume days higher than red volume days. Here is my plan. If it can close over the 50 DMA, I will start a ¼ sized long position with a stop on a close back under the 50 DMA. If it can break above and close over the upper downtrend line, I’ll add another ¼ size. After that I will wait for some consolidation / minor pullback and resumption of up trend to bring to a full position. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
AMEX:KWEBLong
by jaxdog
$ONON Cup with Handle Formation?NYSE:ONON this high-end athletic shoe and clothing maker may be one for your watchlist. See the chart notations for technical details. I like this formation as it works more than 50% of the time. I like how it is above the IPO AVWAP. It has just tested the 50 DMA and may bounce here. The best entry would be over the upper short term downtrend line in the handle part of the formation. A more traditional entry would be as it pushes over the latest high. I like earlier entries with tight stops. I will be looking for an entry if / when it can close decisively over the 50 DMA. I will update this idea if / when I take the trade. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:ONONLong
by jaxdog
$CELH Finding Support?NASDAQ:CELH Has recently had 2 events: Earnings, which beat expectations and had an initial upward push on price then failed. Then it had a 3/1 stock split. One must wonder why the split as the market did not seem to like it. The pullback, which is a little steep, may be finding support at both the most recent lows and a rising 40 Week MA (white). Of course, I do not know if it will be supported but I have an alert set on the downtrend line. Should it alert me, I will use a lower timeframe to see if there is a good risk reward entry. TBD. NASDAQ:CELH On a closing basis, just over a 27% drop in price, not too severe and may present a good opportunity. There are several negative things to be aware of on this chart and that is, it is below the 50 DMA and all other shorter-term MA’s. Another is the selling volume has been heavy but declining. This is one you may want to put on a watchlist as it has been a wall street darling. Maybe again? Of course, several closes below the 40-week MA would tell me that this whole idea is void. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:CELHLong
by jaxdog
2
$MBLY Breaking Out? I have been in and out of NASDAQ:MBLY several times in the last few months. I posted an idea a few weeks ago (link below). I am back in this one this morning as it breaks above the most recent high. It looks to me that it is getting ready to run. All TBD. My stop is below today’s low. If it does not work, I will be out for a small loss. I will look to add on any consolidation over the breakout area. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by jaxdog
2
$TSLA Consolidating in a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)I traded NASDAQ:TSLA last week when it broke out of that inner wedge pattern. It went quickly and then pulled back. I made a good profit on a 2-day trade. A link is below for last week’s idea on the trade. It looks to me that Tesla is finding some support in the low $230’s area. I have an alert set just over today’s high. If it triggers and the market are doing well, I will drop to a lower timeframe it looks for a good risk reward entry. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by jaxdog
2
Technical study of this INSANELY powerful bull market!Once again, the indices are rising strongly. While the SPY is heading towards its all-time high, the QQQ and the Dow Jones ETF are already breaking a new all-time record, again. When will we see the market calm down again? What if a top signal appears on the indices? The SPY ETF is in a clear uptrend, making rising tops and bottoms, breaking its resistances and trading above the 21 EMA (which is pointing upwards, by the way). The next technical resistance is at $479.98, the all-time high. Are there any signs of a top in the SPY, either from a candlestick pattern or a chart? None that I know of. On December 14th we had an attempt to signal a top, a sort of Hanging Man pattern. The problem is that the pattern wasn't even triggered, as the price had to lose and close below the low of the Hanging Man candle. This corroborates what was said in my educational analysis on SPY. Many people try to guess the top based on weak technical patterns, they get scared of one or two bearish candles even without confirmation of a correction. The link to our latest public study on SPY is below this post. Furthermore, according to Thomas Bulkowski's studies, the Hanging Man pattern serves as a bullish continuation pattern 59% of the time, contrary to the popular belief that it is a bearish reversal pattern. Perhaps this is because of the hourly chart. The vast majority of the time, a Hanging Man only serves as a short-term pullback to a support point. In this case, looking at the hourly chart, we see that after the 14th, highlighted in yellow, we see a correction to a support area, made not only by the 21 EMA, but also by a trend line that connects the bottoms in SPY since December 6th. As SPY approaches its high, we see QQQ and DIA trading above their previous high of 2021/2022 (green lines). There is no evidence known to me that could trigger a correction yet. The uptrend should continue in the absence of clear signs of a reversal. Remember the sixth principle of Dow Theory: Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs. What if the indexes correct? Then the price should seek its previous supports. In the case of the SPY and QQQ, the 21 EMA is a good candidate for a bottom. The DIA could correct up to $369.50, its former resistance, which in theory will be a future support, according to the principle of polarity. This scenario describes a pullback, not a reversal, as there is no possible bearish reversal structure on the indices yet – there isn’t even a top signal. What could trigger a bearishh reversal? If a bull trend is made of higher highs/lows, then if we see the price making lower highs/lows, and if it loses the 21 EMA on the daily chart, then we'll know that the trend is reversing. However, I do agree that if the market calms down, now the timing would be perfect, as the indices are all trading around their all-time high, a critical price level for the market. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to support this idea if you liked it, and follow me for more. Best regards, Nathan.
AMEX:SPY
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
🔝 Nasdaq-100 Index: The House of Rising SunThe History is happening right here! ✨ Nasdaq-100 Index NASDAQ:NDX just set its Best First Half in almost 40 years since inception in 1985, with amazing 38.75% year-to-date return in 2023. Among all semi-annual results, Nasdaq-100 gain this year is second only to the year of 1999. With historical 61.44% gain in the second half of 1999, glory times shortly ended. Just two months later in the 1st quarter of 2000 index peaked at 4816.15, for the next 15 plus years. As 38.75% surge in 2023 still far away from the All-the-history record 61.44% in 1999, stocks feel this year like they are, as the great 1960's band "The Animals" said, in the House of the Rising Sun. They won the race, and closed the 1st half of the year with solid gains. Let's take a look and congratulate the winners of the race! ✨ 🥇 The 1st place - Nvidia Corporation, 184.84% YTD return NASDAQ:NVDA Nvidia is the clear winner in the AI arms race so far. It's the company that appears best positioned to dominate the burgeoning sector, and more and more investors continue to wake up to the potential of artificial intelligence. Nvidia effectively provides a one-stop shop for what customers need to drive their AI ambitions. They control their entire ecosystem on both hardware and software, similar to Apple, and that puts them years ahead of competitors. 🥈 The 2nd place - Meta Platform Incorporation, 133.66% YTD return NASDAQ:META Meta Platforms stock jumped this year after the tech giant's first-quarter earnings beat Wall Street's expectations. CEO Mark Zuckerberg also touted the tech giant's AI plans, and pledged to keep costs low as the owner of Facebook, WhatsApp and Instragram continues its "year of efficiency." In a post-earnings call, Mark Zuckerberg hailed the company's AI efforts and vowed to keep a lid on spending. The Meta founder and CEO said AI recommendations had led to people spending over 24% more time on Instagram since it launched TikTok rival Reels. 🥉 The 3rd place - Tesla Incorporation, 120.88% YTD return NASDAQ:TSLA Tesla's stock price has been rallying non-stop for months - and Wall Street is starting to ponder whether that breakneck surge might've made the EV stock a little overvalued. Shares have jumped 57% since late April, with investors cheered by CEO Elon Musk signing charging deals with Ford and GM, while Big Tech stocks have also soared more broadly thanks to the rise of AI as an investment theme. The stock just has settled its best two-quarter advance since 2020. But Barclays, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have each questioned that valuation over the past two weeks, with all three banks slashing their Tesla rating from "buy" to "hold". Unprecedented dominance It's historically rare for a handful of stocks from the same sector to make up such a large part of the S&P500 ( SP:SPX ). The last time the five biggest companies by valuation accounted for a quarter of the index's total market cap was indeed the 1960s.
NASDAQ:NDX
by Pandorra
2