PLTR Has Reached Key Upside Levels: Tighten StopsPrimary Chart : Palantir Technologies Inc. NYSE:PLTR on a daily time frame with key Fibonacci Levels drawn as well as support, resistance, the 21-day EMA, and a critical VWAP from the bear-market lows of December 2022
Palantir Technologies Inc. NYSE:PLTR , once a tech darling of the 2020-2021 bull market in equities, has achieved a substantial retracement now of its vicious 2021-2022 bear-market decline. PLTR has been a popular stock ever since going public via a direct public offering, the same type of registered share offering used by NYSE:SPOT and Slack Technologies, LLC, which is now owned by Salesforce. PLTR provides data-analysis and AI technologies to large government agencies, including defense agencies and branches of the military, as well as large corporations.
Despite periods of consolidation—especially from August 1, 2023, to November 1, 2023, PLTR has been in a primary-degree uptrend since its bear market low on December 27, 2022. The uptrend has been mostly strong and supported by the volume-weighted average price anchored to the bear-market low (green), which is shown on the Primary Chart above.
Price has also run into a major long-term Fibonacci level at $20.74. This level is also shown on the Primary Chart in gold. Using a logarithmic scale, this Fibonacci level at $20.74 is a 61.8% retracement of the all-time high to the December 2022 low. Above this level suggests more upside. Below this level suggests either (i) consolidation, or (ii) resumption of the downtrend (if key long-term support levels break decisively).
When plotted on a linear chart, PLTR has also reached (and stalled at) a critical Fibonacci retracement of its entire bear-market decline. This .382 Fibonacci retracement at $20.85 is often where bull flags or bear flags consolidate within a given trend. Some might view this level as a decisive level for the bbear case given that 38.2% of the bear-market decline has been retraced, and therefore, rising above this level would suggest the uptrend has further to climb (e.g., $25.46 at the 50% retracement shown in green below). So this level at $20.74 / $20.85 (whether viewed as a .618 Fibonacci retracement or a .382 Fibonacci retracement) is crucial to monitor.
Supplementary Chart A
This post argues that the primary uptrend looks as though it has become extended. Does this mean the high has been reached for the this particular uptrend? It's not wise to call the end of a primary trend until technical confirmation has occurred. Picking a long-term high is nearly impossible. The negative divergences on weekly and daily time frames are shown in the following charts:
Supplementary Chart B
Supplementary Chart C
Supplementary Chart D
Supplementary Chart E
Supplementary Chart F
So momentum has definitely slowed in this AI / tech / data-analysis name, and negative (bearish) divergences have arisen. At a minimum, this could signal a period of consolidation lies ahead in the first half (1H) of 2024. The supplementary charts show the divergences one should watch carefully. This may provide a reason for bullish position traders and investors to tighten stops. And if key levels snap decisively, such as the $16.36 level or the August 2023 supports at $13.68 or the VWAP (green) from December 2022, then watch for a retest or break of lows.
