SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-13: Breakaway GAP RALLYWatching the markets this morning, it was very clear the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction of a breakaway pattern setup cleanly with the morning bullish price gap.
Now, we get to watch as the markets struggle to move above recent resistance channels (and Fib retracement levels) as the Vortex Rally base continues to build.
I find it very interesting to watch so many other analysts continue to predict a CRASH.
What changed over the past 5+ weeks?
- A different candidate for the elections?
-- the US elections were in question many months ago.
- Bank Of Japan indicating they need to aggressively support the YEN?
-- the US Fed rate hikes were already putting pressure on global currencies and economies.
- Conflicts in the ME (as that situation continues to work itself out)?
-- The Israel conflict has been ongoing for more than 40+ years. Israel is doing what it must to defend itself from multiple aggressors.
- What else?
I simply don't get why so many other people seem to think the US markets are, somehow, going to absorb all of these foreign market economic & currency issues.
So what, Asian currencies weaken further over the next 24-36 months. How does that detract from the US economy?
So what, the Canadian dollar weakens further and their economy moves into a recession. If you remember correctly, the Canadian economy was super-heated pre and post-COVID (at about 150% of the US economy). It is almost essential for the Canadian economy to contract after a massive speculative bubble.
So what, other foreign markets struggle to defend their economies and currency values as we shift/settle into a more defined global structure. The decoupling of these global economies is actually a very healthy component of what is taking place throughout the globe - monetary contraction.
We need to see this type of monetary contraction in order to move into an organic growth phase. The US Fed and global central banks kept the world's economies on a high over the past 10+ years with easy rates. Now, we need to settle back into more normal rate/economic function.
And I still believe the US economy is the strongest, most dynamic, and most capable of growing over the next 24-36 months while the rest of the globe "settles into a base".
Get ready for a Vortext Rally in the US/US-Dollar.
Get some.
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QQQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-13 : Breakaway May Pause A BitThis morning's video covers the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more.
I suspect today's Breakaway pattern will result in a moderate pause before the markets attempt to move higher.
I still believe the US markets are shifting (decoupling) from global markets a bit, and we are amid a mild "shakeout."
I believe the US markets must settle (establish a base) before the rally can continue.
Ultimately, what has changed over the past 90 days is nothing other than the fact that we have a new dynamic in US politics, and the BOJ has warned that the US Fed's rate decisions may put extreme pressure on foreign currencies.
Get ready for a bit of a sideways slide before the markets resume trending (I believe upward) again.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-12 : SPY 10 Min Flagging/BreakoutThis update shows you why I believe the SPY will resolve the current Flag formation into an upward price trend.
The Vortex Rally base will likely continue to setup over the next 5+ days. But the 531-532 level on the SPY is proving to be a strong support area and as long as this level is not broken - we should see the SPY attempt to rally back above 545-550.
It is all about timing the move and staying patient while the SPY/QQQ settle near this base.
I'll continue to post more updates as price trends.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-12: Vortex Base Building This is a quick update suggesting that the upward momentum in the US markets appears to be fairly strong. But I urge my followers to stay cautious.
The markets are not "cleared for lift-off" yet. We still have numerous Fibonacci resistance levels to break, and we could see the markets move into a broad sideways FLAG formation or break downward again to establish a deeper low.
Within this video, I share what I believe is essential for the markets to move into a confirmed "lift-off" mode.
Please be patient. If we stay patient and protect capital, there will be many opportunities for big swing trades.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-12: Gap/Breakaway PatternWatch this video to learn why the Vortex Rally is building a base and why it is important that price stay above the 0.382 and 0.50 Fibonacci price levels as the base forms.
You'll see how these Fibonacci price structures are key components to all of my research and how to use them efficiently.
Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us price is always attempting to reach new highs and/or new lows. Additionally, price moves in only two modes : Trending or Flagging.
When you completely understand the mechanics of price and how price attempts to operate (see above), then you can pick apart charts very easily.
Currently, price is moving higher (establishing new higher highs) and may attempt to break through the downward 0.382 & 0.50 ceilings as the Vortex Rally base continues to build.
Stay cautious this week as we may see extended price volatility. There will be a huge opportunity (sweet spot) for traders over the next 60+ days to catch more of this big Vortex Rally phase.
Get some
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SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions.
My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible.
But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance.
I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you.
Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades.
This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days.
I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase.
We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
Get some.
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Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
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SPX are we bullish or bearish? The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly.
Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here?
One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame.
Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short.
We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after earnings...all eyes will be on NvDA near end of month.
The markets have a strong chance at staying buoyamt into NVDA earnings.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA.
Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today.
I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend.
Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends.
Have a great weekend.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 9-9 Update : SPY Must Rally Above 532This is a quick update related to the Inside Breakaway Pattern today.
The SPY must attempt to break above 532 in order to attempt a rally up to 539-542.
I really believe the SPY is primed to move into a Ripper Rally phase between now and the end of next week.
I will urge the Make-Or-Break (525-526) is still in play.
If the SPY falls below 525 - the trend flips to BEARISH
If the SPY stays above 525 - the trend is BULLISH.
So, we need to see how today plays out. But, I believe a Ripper Rally is primed and ready to go where the SPY could rally up into the 540+ level very easily.
It may play out as a rally to 545++ by mid-next week - but we may see it start today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY.
If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback).
The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday.
I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend.
The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings.
It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range.
Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending.
I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video.
Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-8 : Harami Means IndecisionThis update to my morning video was created to help you understand why a Harami pattern will likely prompt fairly large price rotation today.
The Harami pattern is an indecision type of pattern. It suggests price is struggling to find direction and may attempt to test upper and lower boundaries.
The purpose of the Harami pattern is to flush out weaker trading positions while, essentially, completing a minor Flag formation.
The Harami pattern is an Inside Bar. By structure, this Inside Bar is a Flag setup (very short-term).
The end of a Flag Formation means price will attempt to move into a new trending mode - or move back into a new Flag formation.
Pay attention to how price constructs this Harami/Flag pattern today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-8 : A Volatile Harami PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami/Inside.
Because of the recent price volatility and the current price FLAG setup, I expect today's Harami pattern to include a fairly large high/low price range. That means we may see very solid price trending (up/down) throughout the day - whereas today's open/close range should stay within yesterday's open/close range.
If you've been following my research, I expect the SPY to attempt to mount a fairly strong rally over the next 10+ days (possibly longer). After the recent bout of volatility (the Kamala-Crush), I believe the US markets will attempt to move into what I'm calling a Vortex Rally based on simple fundamentals.
In order for this to happen, we need to see a few things happen:
- the US dollar continues to strengthen
- crude oil should continue to slide downward (possibly targeting $65)
- IYT (TRAN) should stay somewhat muted into the end of this year
- Gold/Silver should continue to move upward
- Global markets should continue to struggle
If this happens, it will strengthen my Vortex Rally expectations into 2025 and beyond.
Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not always 100% accurate. But they can provide a very clear context for expectations, and when used with other TA techniques and proper risk management - they can be incredibly helpful.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days.
If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week.
Watch the video I created this morning to learn more.
This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : SPY Settles - Gold RalliesThis video highlights what I believe will be the best opportunities for the SPY/QQQ over the next 7+ trading days while highlighting how Gold is setup for a dual-leg rally phase (possibly moving up above $2550) over the next 7+ days.
My continued efforts to deliver pertinent and actionable trade data to my followers are based on the concept that "I do the research—you make all the decisions."
I'm not trying to tell you what to do or when to trade. I'm just showing you what I see on the charts using my skills and understanding of advanced price theories and technical analysis. If it helps you out - perfect. If not, then forget about my research and move on to something/someone else.
Overall, my real objective is to provide very high-quality content (it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong—I'll stand by my research/data every day).
Today's video is very important. Please understand there are two or three big setups taking place in the SPY/QQQ and Gold over the next 7 to 10+ days.
If my research is correct, this is a wonderful time to plan/prepare for these big moves.
Get some.
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Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created.
Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure."
Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them).
But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits.
In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders.
I hope you enjoy it.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-6 : Caution Over The Next 48 HoursMy research suggests the SPY/QQQ will stall into a sideways upward-sloping price channel over the next 1~2 day before attempting to rally further.
Watch this video to learn more.
The Top-Resistance Pattern today may prove very accurate if the SPY rolls downward after filling the GAP.
Get ready; The Vortex Rally is just starting after this Deep-V Bottom.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-5 - CAUTION: Extreme VolatilityThis video highlights why I believe skilled traders are taking minimal, targeted trades in the current market environment.
With the current market volatility as crazy as it is, I don't believe anyone should be swinging for the fences.
If you learn anything from my videos over the past few weeks - know this.
The #1 rule for trading is to protect capital (at all times).
You can be right or wrong while trading. But you have to learn to live to trade another day.
This crazy market volatility could have made a small fortune for some people but destroyed others.
Until we see the SPY move up above $535-$540, there is still a big risk the markets could fall further.
Watch this video to learn more.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-5 : The Shot Across The Bow.Watch this video.
I'm going to try to keep this short and sweet.
I've gotten a lot of comments about how my SPY Cycle Patterns have NOT been working out over the past 10+ days and I want to address that.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are built on Gann & Fibonacci price structures/patterns. They reflect "Normal market psychology" and attempt to provide a guide as to what to expect within normal market rotation/trends.
Nothing has been "normal" over the past 3+ weeks.
It all started when Biden dropped out of the race for POTUS. Then, the real shot across the bow was the Bank Of Japan warning the rest of the world "hey, you may need to start aggressively defending your currencies against devaluation risks".
If you really understand what that means, you'll understand the panic process that is playing out right now.
But, I urge all of you to think about "what changed over the past 3 weeks". That is the question I keep asking myself.
What changed is uncertainty (the Kamala-Crush) and the BOJ signaling foreign markets to prepare to defend the value of your currency against the US-Dollar.
And I believe the panic-mode will subside very quickly as global asset prices drop. Falling prices mean stocks move into undervalued price territory. That also means smart traders BUY INTO this weakness for the longer-term ROI potential.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold