Nasdaq Analysis 05.12.2022Hello Traders,
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Qqqforecast
Nasdaq 100 - Something feels terribly wrongOver the past few weeks, there were quite a lot of things happening - “the market bottom,” “crypto bottom,” “trend reversal,” and so on and on. Again, people rush to make hastily conclusions as the market turns from extremely bearish to fearful of missing out on the real primary trend reversal. Before the CPI, we came forward when QQQ stopped its decline 0.11$ above our price target of 260$ and said we would abstain from setting a price target and wait for the data to come out.
Yesterday's price action is exactly why we did that. The market participants' desire to see the market go higher after a horrible year of underperformance pumped up the Nasdaq 100 index by 7% before the market closed. However, the reality is that inflation continues rising, despite a small surprise in regard to analysts' expectations yesterday. Indeed, in our opinion, it makes no change for the FED, which will continue to tighten the economy further; merely, it will give it more room not to crash the economy right away.
This development comes as a temporary lifeline to the market, which is still seeing the unwinding of the FTX insolvency issues. The stock market and cryptocurrencies continue to see gains across the board today. Despite that, we can not unnotice that something is still terribly wrong; this applies to both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
First, yesterday's move continues to be characteristic of the one in the bear market. For example, in the 2020 crash, there were at least three days with a daily range of more than 10% (for NQ1); examples are shown in Illustration 1.02. Second, volume declined dramatically toward the end of yesterday's session. In addition to that, the peg between the USD and Tether continues to be destabilized, despite retracing much of the move. This development worries us as it might foreshadow another “unexpected” event in the cryptocurrency market, which will also inadvertently affect the stock market. Therefore, we voice a word of caution as we are not yet convinced this is the market capitulation everyone has been waiting for. With that being said, we maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$.
Illustration 1.01
The image above shows examples of down and up days during the 2020 crash before the FED cut rates to stop the drop.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all turned bullish with the market bounce. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, the trend is weak.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the declining volume prior to yesterday's close, which shows signs of exhaustion. We will pay close attention to whether it will be sufficient in the coming hours/days to sustain the rally.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic point to the upside. MACD tries to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 shows a setup for NQ1!; if the price will manage to hold above the level, then it will be bullish for NQ1!.
Illustration 1.04
The above is a link to the article about Tether, which we published during the Luna crash.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 NASDAQ Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022
Currently the volatility for this week is around 4.9% , up from expected 3.8% last week.
According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 80th percentile.
Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is :
BEAR : 3.5% from the opening point of the weekly candle
BULL : 3.25% from the opening point of the weekly candle
At the same time, currently there is 10.8% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to
break and close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 12040
BOT: 11150
Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
LONG QQQ BASED ON CHART PATTERNTechnical analysis of QQQ. Using daily bar chart i am explaining how i plan to trade QQQ. I cover various stocks which can be profitable based on the stock charts and technical indicators. I try my best to explain as detailed as possible but your feedback is also appreciated
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022
We can see that currently the volatility is around 5.08% for this week, falling from the 5.14% from the last week.
Currently there is around 23.6% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel:
TOP 11636
BOT 10500
The current volatility percentile is around 90th, placing us in very risky environment. With this situations in general the market moves:
AVG weekly bull candle = 2.97%
AVG weekly bear candle = 3.6%
At the same time, there is currently a 75% that we will touch the high of previous weekly candle of 11729
and there is a 25% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 11067
From the technical analysis point of view:
The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 80% agreement that the market is in a BEARISH trend ( the current price is below those moving averages)
$QQQ on 1Hr Analysis for 10/10/22** $QQQ on 1Hr Continued Analysis for 10/10/22 **
“Catching a falling knife” in investing is an expression for when a trader buys a stock after a BIG drop in its share price, hoping the price will rebound, but the stock price continues to fall. That leaves the traders incurring losses.
**In my opinion, QQQ will continue to fall more in the morning and then try to bounce after open and potentially fail.
Pivot points to examine and be aware of are $267.10 and $268.84.**
$QQQ falling back to $267.10 and bouncing is what i'll be looking for.
What are your thoughts?
Comment Below!
Thanks,
Kelly :)
QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF Double Bottom on Strong SupportIf you haven`t bought Puts when Jerome Powell was saying that "U.S. businesses will have to endure some pain":
Then you should know that the QQQ etf i ready for a technical rebound.
A Technical Rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold.
In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of QQQ Nasdaq 100 ETF is at 24.75 on a Double Bottom Reversal Chart Pattern and Strong Support.
A double bottom is a reversal chart pattern in technical analysis that describes a change in trend.
Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal.
My ultimate price target is $237, but for now i am bullish .
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
QQQ - A potential reverse pattern to the downside
QQQ - A potential reverse pattern to the downside combined with Elliot wave patterns. Price could fall to around 240-228
if it collapsed below 276. Current support is at 294. Bulls will attempt to defend this area to drive back to 312. Failure to hold at 294 will push the price down to 283 and 296 trading zone
#QQQ testing critical support after price reverses to downsideHello all,
#QQQ local uptrend has finally reversed to the downside after gapping down over the weekend and is currently testing a support level. Should be an interesting week ahead. Share your thoughts with us on what you think will happen next and why?
Nasdaq100 index weekly viewNasdaq100 index closes up 2.1% last week for the fourth positive week in the longest streak since November.
The index closed on the daily timeframe on Friday above the200EMA (13,412) for the first time since early April, and above the 50EMA (13,486) on the weekly timeframe for the first time since late March.
The index may extend its rally into next week testing 13,980 - 14,300 resistance levels.
QQQ
I just went over again looking at futures. NQ RSI is screaming way overbought the market is. I spent hours looking at the charts where I went wrong. Even PCE results came last Friday with 0.6%, beating expectations.
Not long right now need to cool off here, then observe again if this was the bottom or just a relief bounce. Earning was the reason the market was pumping. I'm loaded on $SQQQ no way this creates a higher high. Expect some sideway trading this week till Wednesday because CPI is on Thursday, August 10, 2022.
$QQQSTILL A BEAR. WHY?
Let me tell you one thing on my thesis why I am a bear. QQQ trend is still a downtrend; looking at economic events, it's weak.
- First, the Fed tried to tell us inflation was "transitory."
- Within a year, inflation hit 9.1%, a 42-year high.
- Then, the Fed tried to tell us that a recession was "unlikely."
- Now, we officially entered a recession.
- You are witnessing the most significant failure by any Fed in history.
Reference:
The Kobeissi Letter
"BREAKING NEWS: Q2 GDP unexpectedly falls by -0.9%, officially putting the U.S. in a recession."
My thoughts on technical trading. 4hr chart screaming overbought with QQQ sitting on resistance with regression trend showing overbought signal. Also, there has been a history of 50 SMA as support/resistance (which can be seen highlighted yellow circle)
Also, keep in mind bond rate is decreasing. Meanwhile, FED is increasing the interest rates to control inflation. This is called recession. ASK YOURSELF BEFORE GOING LONG HERE. IT'S BEEN ALMOST 12 YEARS OF BULL RUN WITH DIP THEN RIP AGAIN. THAT'S NOT A BEAR MARKET AT ALL; ITS STAYS more than six months. Plus, commodities going up is also a signal of recession.
7/27/22 QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 ( NASDAQ:QQQ )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $306.81
Breakout Price: $308.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $298.80-$275.70
Price Target: $321.30-$323.90 (1st), $337.60-$344.90 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 33-35d, 69-72d
Contract of Interest: $QQQ 9/16/22 310c, $QQQ 9/16/22 310c
Trade price as of publish date: $6.20/contract, $10.27/contract
NQ breakout attempt Number 1In tandem with SPY , there is an agreement between the two major index that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup , which triggered 4 days earlier than the SPY, on June 17 closing day at 11296.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 12942which is expected to reach this price target before Oct 10. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right.
QQQ whats next??!!It appears QQQ has found a landing zone, and may now be in the accumulation phase, Using the Wyckoff Accumulation method, I analyzed what may occur over the next few trading weeks. In the short term I believe QQQ is bullish and looking to retrace to the .618 Fib resistance ($300-305) within a few days. After that Based on the wyckoff method, it may breakdown, given the marco-economics of the entire market being bearish, with alot of fear and uncertainty amid a recession on the horizon (if were not already), and the feds hawkish aim to control inflation, we may have a sell off that could lead below previous lows, as highlighted in the chart.
Strategy 1: buy $300 calls expiration 8-19-22
Sell: Target price when QQQ reaches $300
Startegy 2: If QQQ reaches $300-305 Buy PUT 21 days from expiration ideally strike of $290
Alternatively QQQ could break over $305 and continue to rally and possibly reverse to the upside despite macro conditions.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor, I do not advise anyone to buy or sell anything, these are just my own ideas for my own use, trade at your own risk.