$QQQ Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisQQQ lost a support level during the last week of Q3. The last time this happened QQQ climbed up to a new all-time high in 2021 (shown by the yellow arrows). I believe the NASDAQ and its leverage-related ETFs are trending up to a new all-time high over the next few months (marked by the green circle). However, there was a special rebalance that occurred in July that is designed to slow the NASDAQ’s growth since the NASDAQ has been very strong this year. We still haven’t observed this effect yet since the stock market has been in a correction since the rebalance, but I’d imagine it will lead to a slower growth.
Qqqlong
Is QQQ ready to continue after a minor pullback?On the 4H chart, QQQ has been in a trend up for the entirety of this year
reaching 42% YTD. Of late, QQQ has had a 2-3 day pullback correcting
a decent uptrend over the prior week. On the Relative Trend Index,
while the signal is below the mean line, there is all the more upside
and the overall trend is positive. The dual time frame RSI shows weekly
RS high and steady over 80 while the lower time frame of 3H as the blue
line fluctuating between support at the 50 level and 80 and presently
a 50 in the pullbck. I analyse QQQ as ready to continue its overall
trend up. I will take out additional call options for a strike of $385
to expire on August 18. Over the past day this option gained 33% and
had a bid/ask spread of about 1%. I will set a stop-loss of 10% while
anticipating a profit of 150%. Once hitting the anticipated profit before
the expiration date I will take one-half of the contracts off the table
and close the rest 1-2 days before expiration.
QQQ: I might be wrong (Inverted Chart)I have been a staunch bear since about March. Since the lows expected a nice bounce but that we would resume
the downtrend at some point. Nothing has convinced me that this market would not do anything besides have another
period of pullbacks, until I inverted the QQQ today. From this perspective, I cannot help but see the very real possibility
of a double top at the very least. At that point though, there is no reason we couldn't keep going and make new highs.
The macro economic conditions are not ideal in the slightest but this might be the kind of bull that is largely absent retail
and will say that way until we actually start to top. A bull, minus retail, is what this looks like. You are not having investors
capitulate easily at all. Buyers have been positioned large and they plan on staying there for a while. Very hard to say.
This is by far the hardest market to judge, that I personally have participated in. I am thinking about taking some long positions
in certain companies, maybe even the Qs but I will be doing so cautiously.
QQQ: Imminent Tech Smack Down!Tech has been on a tare, proceeded by a rip. QQQ has gone up further than I anticipated but the market is finally showing
serious signs of exhaustion. The outrageous valuations and proclamations of a new bull market are sure fire signs of the'
end of the road. It has touched the .618 fib level and depending on how you are looking at it, even surpassed it by a bit.
Looks awfully similar to the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq fell by almost 50% before retracing over 60%, arriving slightly
above the .618 fib and then resumed its downtrend, falling another 80% from its retracement high. The market also rings
of the 1973 bear market where only a few stocks were carrying the entire market before a significant downtrend and they
never quite recovered in the same way. History points to several scenarios that all shine a light on the unusual market
behaviour and what we might expect moving forward. Many are calling for a new bull market and saying that "this time
is different." That is one phrase that you want to avoid at all costs when referencing the stock market because it always
finds a way of delivering the same results, sometimes taking more time to play out or allowing those that refuse to accept
the reality of what is to come to gloat in a the,mporay victory over those more observant and subsequently cautious investors.
I think that it will not be much longer before we see a profound shift in the market and all of the indications of economic illness
are validated by price action.
QQQ I There is a strong rise Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** QQQ Analysis - Listen to video!
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QQQ AI FrenzyIf you are not familiar with this channel take a look at our previous ideas as this is a continuation of our QQQ trade. Originally QQQ presented a great risk to reward opportunity and we entered a position in that trade.
QQQ has out performed our top target, and hopefully at this point you have taken some or most of your position of the table. QQQ still continues going up even when I thought it was due to a break. This came as the result of an unlikely surge in AI stocks that has given energy back to the market.
This movement was not forecasted(By most, myself included) however has taken the market by storm. This is the unpredictability of markets should teach you this lesson. I don't advise shorting unless you are a true subject matter expert and are comfortable holding a high risk position. Estimating tops is hard, even harder then bottoms. I have made most of my money by keeping positions for a long time and having conviction. Its one of the reason i stopped posting much in the last few years.
Adopting a strategy of holding your position can prove to be a more prudent and profitable . With that being said, i favor QQQ to the downside very short term, but i do have confidence that long term QQQ will trend up. We can sell our position or hold some of it. The next dip presents the next buying opportunity. Until then we wait patiently with a small position long.
While we wait we earn 4.6% on our cash investments with decent brokers.(Robinhood gold offers 4.65% on cash) . The trading we perform around QQQ is only to optimize our long term position.
Best of Luck
Ecicic
SPY & QQQ Market Update | Support & Resistance Guide- SPY 1h &4h Equilibrium likely breaking in the next 2 days
- QQQ rising wedge getting really close to end of its pattern, continues to trade its the upper resistance of the rising wedge
- Retail Earnings Week
- Core retail sales data tomorrow 8:30am EST
Daily $QQQ Market Breakdown, Potential Bull flags in Tech Sector- SPY and QQQ have been very choppy due to sectors rotating around may potentially continue unless we start seeing XLF forming daily uptrends and joining team bull.
- Or we see XLF / KRE go sideways and QQQ and SOXX/ SMH join team Bear.
As of now there are zero red flags for QQQ and SMH daily time frame so i am slightly more bullish in my intra-day scalp trades. Wont be holding anything overnight until we get a clear direction in the market i am open to both bearish or bullish trades just want a clear direction.
XLF Triple Bottom Support for SPY Bulls, QQQ Daily Bull Flag, - XLF holding triple bottom support 15m, holding above yeseterdays low bounce off of it 3 times today, first initial sign for the bulls. Now bulls need the hourly trend change for XLF back to an uptrend to help SPY
- QQQ's drop may seem a lot today due to how fast we pulled back from the morning but we are still way above 0.386 fib retracement on daily therefore QQQ is still in a bull flag zone.
- if XLF starts bouncing and changing trends i am likely going to swing some short term bull positions in the leverage 3x SPXL TQQQ TNA
CPI, QQQ Triple Top, KRE / XLF sector, Rate Hikes- CPI data tomorrow will likely determine if we can break that triple top on QQQ
- money rotating around today to tech sectors no a complete FEAR day where money is leaving the market.
- KRE / XLF ETF needs to bounce for SPY to bounce
- 0.25bp current priced in at 62%, and a pause at 38%
- if we break that triple, im looking for a daily bounce and would liking be more long bias then.
SPY & QQQ 15m Trend Change Back to Bulls, Need 1h trend change - After this mornings hourly bear flag with no follow through from bears bulls try to play defense and we had a megaphone pattern play out in the morning.
- QQQ was holding SPY up for the entire day, then the last 30mins bear sectors in SPY joined Bull sector QQQ.
- need to confirm a hourly uptrend to set the daily higher low for bulls.
- would like to see bulls play offense tomorrow.
15m 12EMA Perfect Guide For Both Long & Short QQQ & SPYLast week i mentioned the 15m 12 EMA guide for holding onto profits for both SPY and QQQ which we bounced off again this morning. After we broke the 15m 12EMA today i took a day trade on SQQQ and sold it close to the end of the day because we are still in a strong hourly uptrend and I do not want to hold overnight playing countertrend.
Notes:
- still need to change 4h and daily trend to uptrend, currently in neutral trend
- Even thought i shorted today im still leaning bullish on SPX and NASDAQ for longer time frame in 4h / daily and weekly. until price action tells me otherwise so would likely be looking for another TQQQ entry.
- Powell speaking this week
- we shot straight up 5.5% on QQQ into resistance a pull back for consolidation was very likely
$14,600 Profit on TQQQ Swing Trade, What to look for next week. A deep technical analysis as to why I took profit on my 8000 shares of TQQQ and some mistakes I made on my trade that I could of done better.
- Also what to look for on Monday, Monday is likely a buying the dip opportunity day for the next move up on SPY and QQQ, i explained what we should be looking for to be buying in again.
- the weekly higher low is set and i will be playing off of it
- bulls are still in a weekly uptrend and now we have to change 4h and daily trend back to the bulls.
HOW TO RIDE Your Profits FULLY - 12 EMA BULL TRENDING $QQQ $SPYYesterday I talked about how bears had no follow though at market open and bulls took over after we broke above resistance and that we will very likely get another bull move today higher.
- Both SPY & QQQ were trending on the 12 EMA super strong and did not break below it at all
- bull 100% comfortable holding their positions throughout the entire day with zero signs of any red flags so far
- likely due for a 4h consolidation i'm looking for a 5m or 15m oversold bounce play Monday/Tuesday and ride continue to ride the bull move up until price action tells me otherwise.
- took some profit off my TQQQ position at 23.38, still holding some shares will likely add them back on a consolidation for another move up.
The Impact of Interest Rates on the Stock MarketWe have the 50 EMA at 295 and the 34 EMA at 293. The fact that the price is currently trading above both of these EMAs suggests a bullish trend in the market. This means that buyers have been in control and pushing the price higher.
One important concept to keep in mind when trading with EMAs is the idea of support and resistance. In an uptrend, the EMA can act as a level of support, as we saw with the 34 EMA at 293. Traders can look for buying opportunities when the price pulls back to this support level and starts to bounce back up.
Another concept to consider is the idea of trend following. Since the price is currently trading above both the 50 EMA and 34 EMA, traders may look to enter long positions in the direction of the trend. This means looking for buying opportunities and avoiding selling opportunities.
However, it's important to note that no trading strategy is foolproof, and there are always risks involved. Traders should always use proper risk management techniques, such as setting stop losses, to protect against potential losses.
In summary, the trading situation for QQQ suggests a bullish trend in the market, with the price currently trading above both the 50 EMA and 34 EMA. Traders may look for buying opportunities when the price pulls back to the EMA support levels, and should always use proper risk management techniques when making trading decisions.
$SPY & $QQQ Market BEARS NO FOLLOW Through, V shaped bounceYesterday i talked about 3 scenarios where one of them was we break below the double bottom support at 290 area for QQQ and bears have no follow through and we V shape.
Essentially its exactly what happened bears had a nice overnight drop and pre-market control, the moment market opened bulls took over filled the gap within the first 30minutes.
- Red flag for bears was when we re-tested that 290 support becoming resistance bears couldn't bring the price down to new low of the day, we hovered close to it and re-tested again and broke bull back above it. That's when shorts started covering here and we get a nice move up.
- looking for a 4H trend change to the bulls to have any meaningful bull follow through.
- still holding my TQQQ $21.57 entry.