QQQ LEAP Trade Thesis – Aug 1, 2025
🧠 **QQQ LEAP Trade Thesis – Aug 1, 2025**
🎯 **Setup**: High-conviction LEAP PUT
📉 **Bias**: 🔻 *Moderate Bearish*
📆 Horizon: Long-Term (12+ months)
---
📊 **Multi-Model Intelligence Summary**
🧪 **Grok (xAI)**
• Monthly RSI = bearish 📉
• Trading near 52W highs = overvalued 💥
• Suggests: \$545 PUT
🧠 **Gemini (Google)**
• High conviction bearish
• Suggests: \$590 PUT (expensive premium)
🧬 **Claude (Anthropic)**
• RSI breakdown = confirmed weakness
• Recommends: \$530 PUT for max downside
🦾 **Meta (LLaMA)**
• Moving averages turning over
• Suggests: \$555 PUT – moderate confidence
🛰️ **DeepSeek**
• Long-term RSI confirms bearish drift
• Volatility ideal for LEAP entries
• Recommends: \$545 PUT
---
📍**MODEL CONSENSUS**
✅ Bearish trend across all models
✅ Favorable volatility (VIX ✅)
✅ Overvaluation = downside pressure
⚠️ Strike variance across models → we anchor at **\$545** for balance
---
💼 **TRADE SETUP (LEAP PUT)**
• 🔻 Direction: PUT (Short)
• 🎯 Strike: **\$545**
• 📆 Expiry: **2026-09-18** (413 days)
• 💰 Entry Price: **\$38.33**
• 🎯 Target: **\$76.66**
• 🛑 Stop: **\$24.91**
• ✅ Confidence: **75%**
• ⏰ Entry: Monday Open
• 📏 Size: 1 contract
---
📌 **Narrative**:
Every model says the same thing: RSI rollover, inflated price, and perfect LEAP conditions. Institutions are neutral → retail can front-run the decay. You don’t often get long-dated PUTs this clean.
🎯 Asymmetric risk/reward.
📉 Macro setup aligns.
🎯 Strong long-term positioning play.
---
🧠 Stay smart. Position early. Ride the macro shift.
🔔 Like + Follow for more AI-driven trade setups.
