QCOM 5GWith 5G release imminent, Qualcomm aims to be one of the biggest exporters of this service, behind Huawei. This bullish fundamental analysis is also based on present chart patterns including a bull flag on the daily chart, a clear parabolic uptrend, a LARGE bump and run, a bullish MACD, and a possible break above the mirror top level that was provided by the previous massive bull run. Will QCOM soar?
Qualcomm
Qualcomm to drop by 15% ? Possibly even 25-30% within the year?Qualcomm overall is a solid company and usually performs bullish in the longer holding time frame..
BUT....
I have seem to come across some shorter to mid time frame bearishness.
First I' noticed QCOM forming a Head & Shoulders with weak looking shoulders that decline from the L.shoulder over to the R.shoulder. A gap also occurred from the L.shoulder over to the R.Shoulder within the same price region showing weakness here.
On Balance Volume shows that there are low exchanges of hands and could be signaling weak buying power and a sell off to come.
OBV to price also shows a Bearish Divergence.
Last but not least, we seem to be in the process of forming a descending triangle (iHVF) with flat bottoms and that is low slung.
Only sign of slight bullishness would be in the weekly time frame in which QCMON is bouncing within a channel that we seem to be within the bottom region of. QCOM has exited this channel before but usually tends to be extremely volatile when done so. Could this be a sign of another series of hyper volatility and a hint of the temporary health of the overall market?
QCMON to see around $48 soon and possibly even mid $30's within the year
MOONSHOT - attacking the most violent stock on earth!Qualcomm is probably the most violent stock on the planet. The resent trip to the moon was a result of the signing of a truce with Apple (APPL). Apple - the giant - had sued Qualcomm for $30 billion in an overcharging dispute. Qualcomm had fired back with a paltry $7 Billion counter-suit for lost payments. They settled their dispute and investors went into a frenzy.
But have a look at this chart on any time frame. It's not just about the recent lawsuit. I've never seen such volatility before, in all my years.
So - how does one exploit this. Volatility is supposed to be essential to making money in markets - right? Errrh.. so why is this one gonna scare a lot of people?
The problem is in finding entry and exit positions! Those with keen eyes, have a look at the amber ATR indicator. Nearly every time there is a Grade A trend switch, $$ should flash in your eyes! It then becomes simple. The trend could decide your entry and exit points! No predictions!
Now the challenge is to find a suitable trend switch on the recent moonshot! Note the folly of shorting on ridiculously high or low RSIs. On this chart the RSI peaked most recently at 95.
Taiwan Semiconductor (Reversal)TSM is moving towards a key resistance level which could in-turn create a reversal. That level is just under $39.00. Big tech companies are anticipating the release of 5G, so most if not all mobile devices will have capabilities and Qualcomm which is a customer of TSM will be producing a lot of chips.
QCOM Earnings: Test of 2-year ResistanceQCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward. If earnings are positive, QCOM will likely bounce off the $50 support and make a less drastic reversal upward. Fisher transform also indicates the potential for an upward reversal. With QCOM's extreme debt levels, the FED put will serve them well going forward.
CALL YOUR BROKER, BLOCK "SHARE LOANING" TO SHORT SELLERS!Hello folks,
THIS GOES FOR ALL PUBLIC COMPANIES, NOT JUST TESLA - PLACE A BLOCK ON YOUR ACCOUNT(S)
Many may not be aware of this corrupt Wall Street loophole, when you sign a brokerage account, fine print in your contract allows the brokerage firm to loan out your shares to short sellers.
It's like buying a Rolls-Royce and you paying the loan, and the company turns around and loans the car out to another person while you are not driving the car and profiting off both sides at your expense.
Stopping Short Sellers from accessing your shares will stop a lot of the market turmoil.
Wall Street Corruption at some point must stop.
Don't wait, call your broker and DEMAND IT, they will be very surprised you are asking them and hesitant to freeze your shares.
THEY MUST FREEZE YOUR SHARES ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE A CASH ACCOUNT! DO NOT TAKE NO AS AN ANSWER!!!
IF YOU HAVE A MARGIN ACCOUNT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE ACCOUNT IS WORTH, IF THEY DO NOT WANT TO LOSE YOU AS A CUSTOMER, THEY WILL FREEZE SHARE LOANING ON YOUR MARGIN ACCOUNT TOO.
QCOM Weekly: Pennant formation with downside target $32This is a long-term weekly chart on QCOM which completed an extended ABCD at the $81 level on Jul'2014. Currently trading near the top of a pennant formation with a clearly defined stop-loss level (ie. upper bound of pennant) with a huge potential if QCOM does break down and start a continuation CD leg to $32. This is a company fighting with its major customer (AAPL), turning down a premium bid from AVGO and shelling out top dollar for NXP. If AVGO walks away. management would have lots to answer for.
Potential Bullish Head and Shoulders, Heading Down FirstQualcomm has been potentially forming a well-known technical trading indicator called a head and shoulders (HnS) pattern. This pattern is basically made up of three peaks or triangles with the middle triangle have a higher top than the ones flanked on each side. A HnS pattern with the peaks on top is bearish as the stock drops upon the final triangle (or shoulder) taking shape. A bullish HnS is the opposite where the peaks are actually valleys. Upon the final shoulder being created, the stock goes up. I have outlined the case below on the currently forming bullish HnS pattern.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 75.1524. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought and due to drop. The stock should drop with this. A drop will begin the formation of the final shoulder in the HnS pattern.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -0.4758. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving up, but it is near the levels of reversal that occurred at the initial forming of this HnS. This further aids in a potential indicator of near-term downward movement.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3659 and the negative is at 0.5682. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently both indicators are at extreme levels which typically lead to a reversal of the stock. This is the third indication of near-term downward movement for the stock.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 84.6919 and D value is 85.7988. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently overbought and due to retreat. This is the fourth indication of pending near-term downward movement.
During the possible formation of this current HnS setup, the 200 day moving average (DMA) has acted as a strong level of resistance. This means the stock approaches the 200 DMA (redline across the chart) and then it drops. Currently, the stock is nearing this DMA further signaling a retreat is coming.
I am only focusing on the first leg of the remaining HnS in this article. The chart above does display the movement of this leg that completes the final shoulder top and the green up arrow depicts estimated completion of the shoulder. After the right shoulder is completed, earnings should be reported for QCOM. The results from earnings could be the jolt that fully completes this pattern and finally excels above the 200 DMA.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 8% over the next 28 trading days if not sooner.
Pending Bullish Head And Shoulders For QCOMI see this movement potentially setting up. I plan to write on this in a few more days after the stock moves up a little further.
The initial play will be to the downside. The stochastic is overbought and RSI is nearing that area. A drop is coming, but I am anticipating the stock to rise long-term.
Bearish over next month.
Bullish after that