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Quantguy

How Long Can Bitcoin Rally?Bitcoin has risen sharply off a rally in stocks and a strong selloff in the US dollar. We have blasted through $20.7K and have almost completely crossed the vacuum zone to the next level at $22.4K. However, we are running into resistance confirmed by a series of red triangles on the KRI, and thus the price action is likely to round off some point soon. If we reject $22.4K, we will likely see support from $20.7K. If the rally continues, then $23.9K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
2
Gold Attempts Higher LevelsGold keeps testing 1735, the next level above 1729, our 0.236 Fibonacci level. We are edging above this level at the time of this writing. It does look like we are forming a bull consolidation pattern around 1735, potentially gearing up for a breakout. If so, the 0.382 Fibonacci level at 1758 is a reasonable target. If we retrace, we should hit support at the base of the 1700's, with 1705 in particular standing out as it has provided strong support in the past.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Oil Attempts a ReboundOil bottomed out at 81.30, as expected. Oil prices are generally trending downward off recession fears and china coronavirus lock downs . We are seeing a small pivot off lower levels and an attempt to regain 85.55, which should provide strong resistance as it was a low tested several times earlier last week. We are starting to see strong resistance as we approach this level. If we break through we could make a run for the $90's. If we retrace, then $81.30 should provide support again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Stocks Snap Losing StreakStocks snapped a losing streak yesterday as they gained strength off of Powells comments. The Fed is still expected to hike rates in September, with a 75 bps hike increasingly more likely. However, if and when inflation eases, we should see a more dovish stance. The S&P 500 broke through our target and upper bound at 4009, but is wavering in the vacuum zone between this level and 4068. If we reject current levels we could test the base of the 4000 handle or deeper into the 3900's. If we rally further, 4068 remains a target. www.cnbc.com
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Ethereum Testing ResistanceEthereum pivoted from $1547, after breaching this level briefly. Swift momentum took us back to $1653. Recall that this is the beginning of a series of levels extending through the $1700's, which will provide resistance. It will take significant momentum to break through. Though the Kovach OBV has picked up sharply, we will need more follow through if we hope to break out much further. If we reject current levels, then $1547 is a likely target. Otherwise, $1424 is the next level below.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Litecoin DUMPSLitecoin made a valiant attempt to solidify the $60's, but a strong selloff sent us straight back to the mid $50's. We broke through support at $55.84, and are in the middle of the vacuum zone between this level at $51.92. The low $50's should continue to hold in the event of another selloff. At this point, $55.84 will provide resistance if we are able to rally, and it is not likely we will see the $60's again any time soon unless we see significant momentum come through.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Two Reasons why Ethereum DumpedAs predicted, Ethereum collapsed from $1653. This happened for two reasons that discussed yesterday: We noted that this was highly likely as it was a primarily retail driven rally from hype off 'the merge'. Also, $1653 is the first of a cluster of resistance levels extending into the $1700's. It will require sufficient momentum to break through these. The Kovach OBV has sharply fallen to confirm the selloff. We have broken through our next support level at $1547, but are still well above $1424, which is likely a floor for now. If we rally, $1653 should still provide signficant resistance.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
As Predicted, Bitcoin Tests Lows AgainWe have been calling for Bitcoin to return to $18.6K since its meager rally through the $20K's. Finally, Bitcoin caved and hit our target. We had been wavering around $20K since late August and finally support gave. Indeed $20.7K proved to be a hard upper bound, and our newly drawn level at $19.5K could do little to provide support. However, as discussed here, $18.6K held. We tested this level exactly, with green triangles on the KRI to confirm the support. If this caves, the next level is $17.6K. Otherwise, $20K should be considered a hard upper bound for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Edge LowerStocks broke through relative lows at 3909 as anticipated. We gave up the 3900 handle entirely, and broke down into the 3800's, but found immediate support at 3887. We are testing 3909 from below at the time of this writing but the S&P 500 looks pretty weak. The Kovach OBV is on a steady downward decline, and we keep breaking levels from below. We should have strong support at 3848, a relative high/low from June. If we are able to pivot or we see a relief rally, then 3963 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Gold Maintain The $1700's?Gold tanked again, but as predicted, found support at 1705, the last level of the 1700 handle. We knew the small rally we saw the last time we tested 1705 would be short lived as it barely moved the dial on the Kovach OBV. Also, we ran into resistance from the 0.236 Fibonacci level, and just did not have enough momentum to break through. These two factors both suggested a retracement. Currently, we are forming a double bottom at 1705, but things are looking pretty weak. We are running into immediate resistance at 1715. If we give up the 1700's, then 1692 is the next level down. We expect 1683, the lower anchor of our Fibonacci levels to hold as a lower bound.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin Struggles Amid PressuresBitcoin is hugging lows at our new level at $19.5K. A strong dollar and recession fears seem to be weighing on cryptos. The Kovach OBV is bearish, but appears to be picking up slightly, which could suggest a bear divergence. We could easily make a run for $20.7K if caught a burst of momentum. However, technically BTC does look pretty weak and if $19.5K does not hold, then $18.6K is the next level below to provide support and is an expected floor price for BTC.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Hits Our Target!The US dollar has shot higher, blasting through our target of 109.86, and hitting our next target of 110.20 exactly before retracing slightly. We frankly thought it would take longer to hit this level, but the DXY clearly has a lot of momentum. The Euro is now below parity and bond yields are soaring, which has contributed to a strong dollar. A technical retracement is likely so watch for those levels in the 109's to provide support, otherwise 108.50 should be a floor for now. Our next target is at 111.37.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Another Lackluster Week for Stocks?Stocks opened the APAC session weak (as expected). The markets appear to still be pricing in the recession and the results of the FOMC September 21. We aren't likely to get much of a break in stocks until after this rate hike, which some conjecture might be the last . The S&P 500 saw support from 3909, which was an auspicious level corresponding to a July low. The Kovach OBV, however, is still very bearish, suggesting that it will be an uphill battle for the stock market to claw back highs. If we get a relief rally, then we could test 4009. If we press lower, then 3848 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy