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Quantguy

Bitcoin Slammed as Markets Digest Jackson HoleBitcoin has plummeted after the hawkish rhetoric from the Jackson Hole retreat slammed risk on assets. We broke through supoort at $20.7K and smashed through $20K. Currently, we are wavering about the $20K mark, in the high $19K's at the time of this writing. The Kovach is incredibly bearish, registering the selloff. Our next level down is $18.6K, and we have reestablished the value area, where Bitcoin wavered for weeks, between $18.6K and $20.7K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Hawkish Jackson Hole Rhetoric Lifts the DollarThe US dollar shot up as hawkish comments from the Jachson Hole retreat sent yields soaring. We have broken through our recent high of 109.30, making new highs at 109.47. We are just a few ticks south of our target of 109.86. Despite the strong hawkish tone of Fed officials last week at Jackson Hole, it does feel like a technical retracement may be in store for us, so watch for support at 108.50. After that there is a vacuum zone to 107.20.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Jackson Hole Means for the Stocks and the EconomyStocks swiftly sold off as the markets digested comments from the Jackson Hole retreat. This is a gathering of central bankers from around the world, and while no 'official' policy decisions are made, the markets pay great attention to comments made by key members. In particular, Jerome Powell came off sufficiently more Hawkish than anticipated , and the markets reacted as such. The dollar soared past highs along with bond yields and stocks tanked. Powell even said that Americans should expect 'pain' which was a particular somber note and drove the selloff further. At this point a 75bps or even a 100bps rate hike are not off the table for September. Also, particular mention was given to how rate hikes may impact the labor market, with some sources suggesting it could cost up to 4 million jobs . The S&P 500 tumbled to the base of the 4K handle at our very last level at 4009, a level we have been identifying for weeks. If this level breaks, we will return to the 3K's again, with 3978 and 3963 the next levels of support.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Edges HigherBitcoin is edging up, but is still bounded by $22K or so. We have a strong level at $22.4K, but we can't even muster the strength to test this. We did see strong support around $20K, so it does not seem like BTC is weak enough to test the $18K's or $19K's and establish the range we held when we tested lows. However, the Kovach OBV is still bearish, so we have a slight bear divergence. We are likely not to see any momentum until Fed's Powell speaks at Jackson Hole at 10AM EST. If he sounds dovish, we could see a rally to $22.4K or the next level at $23.9K. Otherwise, expect continued support in the $20K's.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Can the DXY Make New Highs?The US dollar has stalled at highs at 109.30 or so. We saw great resistance here, as we anticipated, but have found support around 108.50, a strong technical level. Green triangles on the KRI confirm support here. The markets will likely be quiet until the Fed's Jerome Powell speaks at 10AM EST at the Jackson Hole retreat. If he sounds hawkish, we could make a run for those highs again. The level 109.30 must be broken in order to hit 109.88, our next target.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
What Jackson Hole Could Mean for StocksStocks pivoted from 4122, where we saw strong support from green triangles on the KRI. Subsequently, we were able to pivot and made a run for higher levels. We have broken past 4188, the exact level we called out as a target yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up, but we will likely not see too much action until the Fed's Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole retreat at 10AM EST. If he sounds dovish, it could be an indication that the Fed's aggressive monetary policy is softening, and we could see a nice rally. If not, 4122 should continue to provide support. After that we have a vacuum zone to 4068 then 4009.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Break Through Resistance?Ethereum found support at $1547, as we anticipated. We saw a lot of green triangles from the KRI on this level, confirming support. Subsequently, we pivoted back to the $1600's where we first saw resistance from $1653. There is a cluster of levels above that should provide resistance, and we are currently in the thicket of them. These start at $1694 and end at $1748. After that, there is a vacuum zone to $1821 which remains a target if we can break through. If we reject these levels then $1653 and $1547 should provide further support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Inches HigherEthereum has found support, bouncing off our level at $1547. We saw mounting support from green triangles on the KRI, but the $1600's are proving tough to break through. Our level at $1653 seems to be a barrier for now. Recall that this is the beginning of a cluster of levels which extend through the mid $1700's. We will need some strong buying momentum to break through these, but if some comes through, we could retest the $1800's. Otherwise, expect continued support at $1547, with $1424 a likely floor price.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Struggles with the $20K'sBitcoin has stabilized in the low $20K's, seemingly unfazed by dollar strength and a bearish stock market. We have been testing $20.7K, but green triangles on the KRI are confirming support. We are seeing little buying interest and cannot even muster the strength to test the next level at $22.4K. In particular, $21.6K seems to be a barrier for now. If we break down, there is a vacuum zone below to $18.6K. If we can rally, we have to break $22.4K before considering higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Can Oil Test $100 Again?Oil has rebounded into the $90's after establishing a solid value area in the high $80's. It seemed like prices were finally coming down, when we saw a nice spike back to the $90's, reestablishing value above $92.03. We are currently testing $95.24, but a red triangle on the KRI may indicate that we are running into resistance. If we can break through then the next target is $96.88. After that, we are clear to attempt the $100's again. If we reject current levels, we should see support at the base of the $90 handle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Stocks Hold Critical LevelsThe S&P 500 has faced a relentless selloff, with Fed expectations, troubles in Europe, and high inflation continuing to impact the economy. We have broken through all support levels in the 4100's, except for 4122, the last level before the vacuum zone below. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009. The Kovach OBV does seem to have picked up a bit despite the fact that we appear to be hanging on to 4122 by a thread. If we can muster a pivot, then 4188 is a likely target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Can Ethereum Hold the $1500's?Ethereum has held its ground, finding support at $1547, as anticipated. Support is confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still quite bearish, but does appear to be attempting to level off as the bleeding eases. A strong US dollar and hawkish Fed outlook should continue to weigh on crypto, but if the $1500's can hold, then $1653 is the next target. After that we will face further resistance from that cluster of levels in the $1700's. If support breaks then $1424, and $1341 should provide further support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Bitcoin Clings to the $20K'sBitcoin has found support at $20.7K, confirmed by multiple green triangles on the KRI, despite an increase in the strength of the US dollar. The Kovach OBV is still bearish however, and if support caves, we will return to the value area between $18.6K and $20.7K. If we are able to pivot then the next target is $23.9K. But we are seeing strong resistance in between $20.1K and $23.9K, at around $21.6K, which must be broken before considering higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Can Stocks Hold the $4100's?Stocks have continued to tumble, testing lower levels in the 4100's. We have plummeted past 4188, and are testing 4122 at the time of this writing, which is the last level in the 4100's. If this does not hold, there is a vacuum zone below to 4068, then 4009. Support seems to be holding for now, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV seems to have leveled off from its bearish decline, so we may see a pivot off support. If so, 4188 is a reasonable target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy