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Quantguy

Bitcoin Rally Falls ShortBitcoin saw a nice pivot from support at $20.7K after the FOMC statement. The 75bps rate hike lifted uncertainty about the Fed's outlook and stocks and other risk on assets were clear for a rally. We broke above $22.4K, but are meeting resistance in the vacuum zone between this level and $23.9K. We don't expect anything staggering from Bitcoin in the near future, so anticipate resistance at $23.9K. If we see a retracement, we could easily head back to support at $20.7K. There is strong support in the $20K's, but if this does not hold, $18.6K is a likely floor.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Can The S&P 500 Break Out??The S&P 500 has broken out to the upper bound of the range, at 4009. After the uncertainty from the Fed was lifted, and we received our 75bps rate hike, stocks were clear to rally. However, as we anticipated, there was little action yesterday, and they are still respecting the range we identified. We made a brief attempt to rally into the vacuum zone above, but momentum quickly faded and we retreated to support around 4009. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so if stocks can break out further, there is a vacuum zone above to 4068. Watch for momentum at open. If it does not come through then we are likely to retrace deeper into the value area between 3909 and 4009, with 3909 an anticipated floor for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Range Ahead of FOMCThe S&P 500 is ranging near relative highs. We broke out into the 4000's, but fell short of 4009. Several red triangles on the KRI are confirming strong resistance at these higher levels. We have some support from 3909, and a break down could take us back to the mid 3800's, likely 3848 or so. A rally could test 4009 again. We expect the S&P to respect this range, and don't expect too much action from the FOMC today, as the markets have largely priced in a 75bps hike to combat inflation with a small probability of a 100bps rate hike, the largest hike since 1989 .
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Hangs onto SupportLitecoin has gotten some support, as anticipated, from levels in the low $50 handle. In particular, $51.92 is holding strong, with $50.64 right below it. We are seeing a small pivot from here but if we fail to follow through, then we are likely to hover at these levels and potentially break through. There is a vacuum zone below to $45.48. We are just about midway to the next level at $55.84, but resistance is already setting in confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. If momentum can continue expect resistance at $55.84.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Ethereum Recovers the $1400'sEthereum has pulled back all the way to $1341. We found support here, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Subsequently we bounced back to the $1400's, barely breaking our level at $1424. We don't expect too much more action, with strong resistance from $1547. Another dump could take us back to $1235, which is the upper bound of the range ETH had held for most of this month. If we break down from there we will have returned to the range between $1017 and $1235.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
3
Bitcoin Clings to the Low $21K'sBitcoin has fallen from highs at $23.9K, crushing hopes that another bull market has returned, and confirming our assertion that this was a 'bull trap' all along. We are finding support at $20.7K, after hitting this level exactly. Support is confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We got a small pivot from there, but are running into resistance confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has drifted downwards, but may be bottoming out soon. If the momentum can continue, we expect resistance again at $22.4K. If we fall further, there is a vacuum zone to $18.6K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Plummets to the Low $50'sSupport for Litecoin caved as predicted yesterday. We were hanging onto $55.84 by a thread and support finally broke. We then plummeted through the vacuum zone, which we also anticipated yesterday, to support in the low $50's. Currently we are just above our level at $51.92, with $50.64 right below to provide further support if needed. If those level cave, then there is a vacuum zone below down to $45.48. If we pivot from current levels, then $55.84 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Pulls BackAs anticipated, Bitcoin has fully retraced the entire breakout, to the upper bound of the range it has held since mid June. We are finding support at $20.8K, but after that we will reestablish that value area. We should have further support around $20.8K, then $18.6K, which is the lower bound. The level $17.6K should be considered a floor in case things get really ugly. If we are able to break out again, then $23.9K is the next target, if we can break through $22.4K. Anticipate the market to be quiet before the FOMC meeting today.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
DXY Holds the Range, Anticipating the FOMCThe US dollar is holding the range between 106.13 and 107.20. We shot up to the upper bound where we are meeting resistance again, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. It is likely that we will continue to range before the FOMC. A 100bps rate hike is expected by some sources. This will likely cause a rally in the dollar and we may break out of the range. If so, 108.50 is the next target. We should have support at 106.13 and 105.78 otherwise.
TVC:DXYLong
by quantguy
Stocks Pulling Back, Awaiting FOMCStocks have retraced from relative highs at 4009. We have several red triangles on the KRI indicating some stiff resistance at 4009 and 3978. Volatility has consolidated quite a bit, which is understandable before the FOMC, today. Note that some sources are predicting a 100bps hike, but it should come in at least 75bps. This is largely priced in, but we should anticipate some volatility either way. We should have support at 3909 or in the 3800's. If we are able to break out we must first definitively break 4009, then there is a vacuum zone to 4068.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Bitcoin RetracesBitcoin has retraced from $22.4K, as anticipated. We did not see much reason for the rally, and felt that $23.9K was a bit top heavy, especially after such a hard sell off from June. We have returned to the value area between $18.6K and $22.4K. We appear to be getting good support around $22K, but the next support level is $20.7K if this does not hold. If that breaks there is a vacuum zone back to $18.6K. If we are somehow able to break out, then $23.9K should hold strong, providing significant resistance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Stocks Hit ResistanceThe S&P 500 broke out, testing and rejecting 4000 as we anticipated Friday. We identified 4009 as a likely target, and the S&P 500 hit this perfectly, before retracing a bit. We are seeing the price action round off and potentially a small head and shoulders pattern forming, so watch for a retracement, which could present a buying opportunity. We should have support from 3937, a relative high if so. If we are able to break out again, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, which would be our next target.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Will Oil Test $100 Again??Oil has edged back down to support after topping out at $100, a strong psychological and technical level. As predicted here, we are finding support at our technical level of $95.24, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Support is looking weak, and we could break down further. The next level below and target for support is $92.03. After that we could test the base of the $90 handle at $90.06. If we pivot off current levels we could make a run for $100 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Can Ethereum Break Through Resistance??Ethereum rejected our level at $1653, breaking through the next level below at $1547. It found support at the base of the $1500 handle, just above our next level at $1424. Currently, we are making another run for $1653, but many red triangles on the KRI are signalling strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up but does not seem sufficient to break the resistance. If not, then we could retrace back to the low $1500's or $1424. If we are able to break out we will meet swift resistance from a cluster of levels in the high $1600's and low $1700's. If we are able to punch through that, which will take significant momentum, then $1821 is the next target.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
Can Bitcoin Break Out Again??Bitcoin has retraced from our level at $23.9K, which was a strong resistance level that we identified yesterday. Recall that we also said that it would be unlikely for BTC to break through this level and that we would likely find support at $22.4K. This is exactly what happened and BTC is currently maintaining a narrow range between these two levels. The level $22.4K is the upper bound of a previous range so if we break through this we will likely return to the previous value area between $18.6K and $22.4K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy