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Quantguy

Inverse Head and Shoulders in Stocks??Stocks have picked up, but the markets have quite a bit to digest. The Ukrainian president is meeting with Russia to discuss terms, which may give the markets some hope to the resolution. However, sanctions are slamming Russian banks and the world is fearing oil supply issues. That being said, we appear to be seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming with a neckline at 4364. The Kovach OBV has picked up tremendously from where it was when stocks were at lows this week. This suggest a bit of a bull divergence, and a potential breakout could take us to 4440. If we retrace further, we could test lows again at 4122 but 4245 is likely to provide support first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
The US Dollar Retraces from HighsThe US dollar made an aggressive run, rallying from the low 96's where it was struggling to hold 96.00, to the mid 97 handle. We topped off at 97.62, at the height of market panic over the Russia/Ukraine conflict, but have since retraced a bit back to lower levels in the 97's. We briefly dipped back down into the 96 handle, with support holding just above 96.65. The DXY has since recovered the 97's, currently feeling out the range between 97.03, and 97.32. Recently, the 97's seem too top heavy for the DXY, and if so, we can expect a retracement back to support from a cluster of levels between 96.44 and 96.65.
TVC:DXYShort
by quantguy
8
Oil Retraces to Support in the $90'sOil topped out at just over $100 at the height of market panic over the Ukraine, but since it has retraced back to its comfort zone, finding support at $92.03. We are seeing strong support here from green triangles on the KRI, and a nice value area forming between $92.03 and $95.24 exactly, a previous high and former profit target. The Kovach OBV has crimped downward, suggesting the aggressive momentum has let up for now. We should see further ranging in the current value area but if not, $90.06 should hold. If we are able to break out, then $96.88 is tne next target, then there is a vacuum zone back to $100.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Gold Retraces to the low $1900'sGold rallied tremendously off the Ukraine conflict, hitting yearly highs at the top of the $1900 handle. It looked like we might make a run for $2K, but we topped out at 1977 or so, before a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. After that, we retraced the entire move, spanning $100, where we finally found support at $1876. We were able to find support here, and have since recovered to $1917, where we are currently finding support between $1905 and $1917. It could go either way from here, but after such intense volatility, it is reasonable for the markets to try to find footing and establish value at current levels, between $1905 and $1917. If we retrace further, $1876 is likely to provide support. If we break out again, it is doubtful we will reclaim $1977, but $1925 or $1936 are reasonable targets.
COMEX:GC1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Recovers $100Litecoin fell to support with a low at $92 or so, before rebounding back to the $100's. We are currently testing $105, the first level in the $100 handle from below. The next level is $114, and if we are able to break through resistance here, we should be able to make a run for this level, as this price range was a previous value area. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but seems unconvinved of true bull momentum. If we range today, then current prices in the low $100's should hold. If we sell off then we may test $94 or $92 again, but these levels should be considered a floor price for now.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Ethereum Recovers LossesEthereum sold off massively during the height of the market reaction to Russia's invasion. We tested lower levels in the $2K's before rebounding and retracing all of our losses, back to the mid $2K's, at $2651. We do appear to be feeling out a value area between $2556 and $2762. It does look like we may be forming an inverse head and shoulders with a neckline at $2762. If that is the case, we may anticipate a rally back to $2852 or even an attempt for the $3K's again. If not, we could potentially test lows at $2324, but will likely see support before that at $2556, or $2454.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
5
Bitcoin Volatile as Investors Digest RussiaBitcoin tested lows as the market panic sold with the Russia/Ukraine conflict. But things leveled out quickly, and it subsequently recovered all of its losses. We are currently safely back to the $38K's, hovering just above support at $38.2K. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but not enough to give us confidence in any real bull momentum. The value area between $38K and $40K seems reasonable for BTC for now, but if we are able to break $40K, then we should face resistance from two levels in the $41K's. If we retrace further, then we should have support from lows at $34.9K.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Stocks Swing After Markets Weigh Russian SanctionsStocks had a wild ride yesterday. We sold off to 4122, where we found support and retraced the entire move back to 4293, over a hundred points, before retracing a bit to the mid 4200's. This degree of volatility in the stock market makes it difficult to foresee what today or next week has in store, but we may be starting to form a massive inverse head and shoulders with a neckline in the mid 4200's. The Kovach OBV has picked up from lows suggesting there is real buying happening as stocks bottomed out. If this is the case, then we can expect the S&P 500 to make a run for 4364 again, then 4440. If not, we could retrace the entire move back to 4122, but this seems less likely.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
2
Litecoin Sells Off After Ukrainian InvasionLitecoin has sold off with the rest of the crypto market on the Russian invasion of the Ukraine. We appeared to be making an attempt to break through to higher levels with the $100's holding and an apparent concerted effort to test $114 again. However, the news was devastating for LTC, which regrettably retraced all of this move and then some, giving up the $100 handle entirely. But we did see support from our level at $94, a level we have been mentioning for the past week or so, as a candidate for support if $100 didn't hold. We will have further support from 92, which we appear to be testing now. If this does not hold then the next target below is $85.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy
Ethereum Sells Off After Russian Forces Invade UkraineEthereum has crashed after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We have smashed through the low at $2556, a relative low that we thought may be constituting an inverse head and shoulders pattern, and therefore a possible attempt at higher levels. However, a global market selloff broke this low and headed deeper into the $2k handle. We are currently finding support at $2324, but are not really seeing much of a pivot or attempt at higher levels. If we are able to smash through $2324, then $2232 is next target. If we are able to see a pivot off current levels, then $2454 is the first level that will likely provide resistance.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Tumbles Off the Russian Invasion of UkraineBitcoin has plummeted after the Russian invasion on the Ukraine. We were personally hoping that Bitcoin would become another safehaven asset, but with institutional holdings on balance sheets, it is moving with stocks at this point. We sold off drastically from what appeared to be an inverse head and shoulders pattern forming at around $39K, smashing through several major levels in the $30K's. However we are currently finding support at $34.9K and $34.0K. If we tumble further then $32.3K is the next target. If we are able to recover a bit, then $36.7K is the next target.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by quantguy
What the Russian Invasion of Ukraine Means for StocksStocks have plummeted after Russia attacked Ukraine. We were seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming with a low of about 4272, but strong bear momentum smashed through this level and headed down further into the 4100 handle. Currently, we are finding support at 4122, where a green triangle on the KRI is providing support. After that, there is a vacuum zone to 4068, then 4009, the very last level in the 4000 handle. It is likely stocks will try to jostle for footing, so expect some volatility today. We could retest 4272 again, but that is most likely the ceiling for today.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Gold Blasts Off After Russia Invades Ukraine 📈🤑🚀Gold has blasted through highs off news that Russia has invaded the Ukraine. We saw some resistance around 1917, with 1895 providing good support. But the news took us past 1936, through the vacuum zone to 1956 and then on to the 1970's, where we are finally encountering some resistance and potentially may have topped out for now. A red triangle on the KRI suggests this may be a high. The Kovach OBV has gained considerable strength, and does not appear to be leveling off any time soon. If we do pull back, consider 1956 or 1936 for support.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by quantguy
1
Litecoin Pivoting??Litecoin got strong support from $100, pivoting off this level as it retraced past our level of support at $105. With the pivot, we were able to clear $105 again, and appeared to be in the vicinity of $114, but momentum seems to be petering out and we are meandering in the middle of the vacuum zone between $105 and $114. If we can recover further and break $114 then $120 is the next target, then $124. If we retrace further, then $105 and $100 should provide support, but if not, $94 is the first level of support in the double digits.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders In Ethereum??Ethereum pressed lower, but found support at $2556, a level we have called out here. We have subsequently seen a nice pivot back to relative highs at $2762, which may be the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern (in the making). The Kovach OBV has lifted slightly, nothing to support bullishness yet, but it could suggest that we have bottomed out in this bear rout. If we are able to break higher, then $2852 and $2965 are the next targets. If we retrace again, $2556 should provide support, then $2454.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by quantguy
2
Bitcoin Ready to Breakout??Bitcoin has made another run for lows in the mid $30K's. We found good support at $36.7K, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, but does appear to be leveling off. We are seeing an inverse head and shoulders type pattern in Bitcoin with a "neckline" around $38.9K. If this is the case then a breakout could easily take us back to the $40K's, but we might need some fundamental driver like the situation with Russia to improve. If we are able to break out, the first target is $40.0K. If we reject current levels then $36.7K should hold.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quantguy
1
Can Stocks Break Out??Stocks have been struggling to find footing in the wake of Russia tensions. As we mentioned before, stocks found support at 4272. A green triangle on the KRI confirmed the support here. We are currently attempting a bit of a pivot from here, with 4364 providing resistance for now. We are seeing a (rather messy) inverse head and shoulders type pattern here with a "neckline" at 4364. If we are able to break out from this, we will surely see resistance at 4440, then 4580. The Kovach OBV still is not convinced of any bullishness at this point, and is remaining at lows for now.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Holds $100Litecoin plummeted as the markets digest the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We have retraced fully, back to lows after finding support at $105. Support failed but $100 held and we are currently testing $105 again but from below this time. If the $100's do not hold then there is a vacuum zone to $94. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish and we don't see much evidence to support a bullish outlook any time soon. However, current prices seem to be a discount, and we feel it might be time to start accumulating a long term position, with the understanding that we may press a bit lower.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Sells Off with Russia TensionsBitcoin has sold off with stocks as the markets react to the Ukraine/Russia conflict. We were skeptical of the bull rally anyway, as we have mentioned here many times. Bitcoin have solidly given up the $40K handle, and are well into the $30K's at this point. The level $38.2K appeared to provide good support, but another wave of selling took us back further to $36.7K. This appears to be a bottom for now, but there is a vacuum zone to $34.9K. If we catch some bull momentum, $40K is the level to break to see higher levels.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
4
Stocks Selloff with Russia TensionsStocks turned sharply lower as the Russia/Ukraine crisis has escalated. Putin has sent troops to separatist regions in the Ukraine and the UK and EU have suggested to respond with sanctions. We have retraced the range fully, testing 4272 once more. Recall that this level has been in our reports all this month, so you should have been prepared. We are seeing support here at 4272, and appear to be attempting a pivot from this level. However the Kovach OBV is still bearish, suggesting that we may be seeing some headwinds. Our next target is 4364, then 4440. We should continue to have support from 4272 in the event of another selloff, but if that breaks, then 4245 is the next level where we can expect support.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy