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Quantguy

The DXY Attempts to Reclaim the 96'sThe US dollar is meandering in the high 95's. After rejecting the 96 handle, we promptly saw support at 95.82, with a few attempts to break it immediately finding support just above 95.58, the next level down. Several green triangles on the KRI have confirmed support above this level. However, any attempt to break through to the 96's again is being met with resistance, confirmed by red triangles on the KRI. We will have resistance at 96.24 if we are able to break into the 96's again. If so, then 96.44 is a likely ceiling for now.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
Oil Dips Sharply, Will it Find Support??Oil has retraced sharply from highs. After rejecting 95.24, we smashed through the 90 handle entirely, testing 88.77, where we appeared to find support as confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. However, another selloff took us past this level to the next level of support at 87.21. We do appear to be finding support at this level at present, but if not, the next level down is 85.55. This still seems to be a reasonable technical retracement in the overall bull trend, but the Kovach OBV has started to tick downward with the selloff. If we can find support at current levels, then the 90's should provide resistance. But after 92.03 there is a vacuum zone back to 95.24, so momentum could have us return to this relative high quickly.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Bonds Attempt to Establish Value Near LowsBonds have picked up from lows, retracing the vacuum zone back to resistance at 126'19, exactly as we had predicted yesterday. The Kovach OBV picked up very slightly, but nowhere near enough to suggest any serious buying momentum. We are seeing resistance from these levels, as anticipated, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. It seems likely that ZN may retrace the range again, and find support at 125'17, but if we continue to test higher levels, then 126'18 and 127'01 are the next targets.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
Litecoin Dives, Finds SupportLitecoin has sold off with the rest of the crypto market. We smashed through support at $120, and tested $114, which appears to be holding strong as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We made a concerted effort to pivot, which was promptly batted down at $120 again, confirmed by a large wick on the candle and a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has dropped off notably, but it does appear to be leveling off. If $114 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone down to $105. If we are able to break $120 again, we are sure to meet resistance at $124.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Gives Up $3K Again!! 😱📉Ethereum tested our level at $3200, making a concerted attempt to break out to test the head of our head and shoulders pattern at $3324. However, this provided prohibitive resistance, and we subsequently sold off. We predicted this would happen yesterday, as $3200 appeared to form a double top. We sold off all the way back to $2965, then $2852, exactly as we had predicted. We are currently in the previous value area between the aforementioned levels. The Kovach OBV has dumped and we have given up the $3K handle, which are not strong signs for bulls. However, if we see a burst of momentum, then $3042 is the next target if we can break $2965 again. However, based on the current price action, $2965 seems like a ceiling for now. If we selloff and break $2852, then $2762 should provide further support.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin to $30K's Again??Bitcoin has retraced back to support at $40K. We had been calling for this retracement after weak momentum met resistance, and the price action meandered just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI confirmed that $45K was too top heavy for Bitcoin, and we promptly retraced to support in the $41K's. After that did not hold, we identified the next levels of support around $40K, where we are currently seeking to establish value. The Kovach OBV has dropped off substantially, but $40K is a strong psychological and technical level. If it holds, we could make a run back through $41K back to the value area just above the $43K's. If selling continues, then $38.2K is a particularly auspicious level and is likely to provide strong support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
1
Stocks Dive but Find SupportThe S&P 500 has retraced from relative highs at 4487, reentering the previous value we identified yesterday. Recall that we asserted yesterday that if stocks retraced, they would likely enter the value area between 4272 and 4440. We do appear to be finding support roughly in the middle of this range, just above 4364, where we saw support Monday. Stocks could be feeling out a new value area between 4364 and 4487, relative highs. The Kovach OBV has curved over, suggesting that momentum has dried up for now. If we continue our descent and break through 4364, then 4272 is sure to provide support. If we see a rally, then we must break 4487, then 4580 is the next target.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Litecoin Testing SupportLitecoin has retraced to support after testing $130. We have retraced from there to support at $124, which we anticipated yesterday. The price action appears to be weakening further, and if so, we can anticipate further support at $120. Unless there is a drastic spike of momentum either way, we anticipate the sideways correction between $120 and $134 to hold. If not, we will see further support from $114. The next targets are $134 and $141, and we must clear $141 in particular to confirm a bull rally and consider higher levels again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Double Top in Ethereum!!Ethereum has made an attempt at higher levels but $3200 has provided prohibitive resistance, as we anticipated. We are seeing a double top at this level with two red triangles on the KRI to confirm the resistance. Currently, we are finding support at the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042, which we also predicted yesterday. If support breaks, we will surely test the $2K handle again, with $2965 the first level of support below. If that does not hold then $2852 should provide strong support, and we will have returned to the previous value area between $2852 and $2965. We must clear the 'head' of the head and shoulders pattern at $3324 before we can be confident of a bull rally.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by quantguy
1
Bitcoin Rejects $45KBitcoin has pressed higher, though hopes for a bull rally were quickly thwarted as we met resistance just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI indicated resistance, and the price action was rounding off. Support at $43.8K broke, and the next level below, $43.1K is hanging on by a thread. If we break down further, we should have support from two strong levels in the $41K's, then $40K. The target from above to break is $45K, and we aren't convinced of any bull rally until this happens. After that, the next target is $47.4K, where we will be in a better position to consider $50K again.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
2
Oil Attempts to Reclaim the $90'sOil has dipped sharply, as we anticipated yesterday. We have tested 95.24 several times, but red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at every attempt. Subsequently, a strong selloff took oil prices back to support at 88.74, the exact level we called out in our reports yesterday. Also, as we anticipated, we are seeing support here, with an attempt to regain the 90's. We are currently finding support just below our level at 90.06. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting that we may be in a sideways corrective pattern between 88.74 and 95.21. If so, we anticipate prices to pick up and solidify the 90's again. If not, we will have further support from 87.21 and 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Stocks Range, Anticipating Russia/Ukraine DevelopmentsStocks are ranging after inching past resistance at 4462. The S&P 500 was able to break this level of strong resistance but just barely, encountering resistance at the next level at 4487. We met resistance here confirmed by several red triangles on the KRI, and then retraced back to support at 4431. The Kovach OBV has leveled off completely suggesting it could go either way from here. The markets are clearly not convinced that the Russia/Ukraine saga is nearing a close. If we retrace further, we will reestablish the value area between 4272 and 4440. If we see a burst of momentum, then we must clear 4462 again, then the next target is 4521. After this we must solidly break 4580 before considering higher levels.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Can Lightcoin Test Higher Levels Again??Litecoin has picked up, with the burst of momentum we saw in the crypto market. We found good support from $120 and $124 with $130 currently providing resistance. The Kovach OBV is edging up higher, but we don't have much technically to suggest a further rally. If we do see more momentum come through, then $134 is the next level of resistance, before we can attempt relative highs again at $141. If we retrace, $120 should hold as we continue the sideways corrective pattern.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSD
by quantguy
Ethereum Stalls After RallyEthereum has made a run for higher levels, breaking past the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042. We are currently meeting resistance at $3200, with a red triangle on the KRI signifying resistance at this level exactly. The Kovach OBV has turned up sharply with the rally, but appears to be leveling off as we have met resistance. If we see another burst of momentum, we must clear the 'head' of the head and shoulders pattern at $3324, before we can have confidence in a bull rally. If we fail to see momentum come through we will likely retrace to $3042 or $2965, where we are likely to support. Recall that the previous value area was the narrow range between $2852 to $2965, so if current levels cannot sustain, then we may return to this range.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Meets ResistanceBitcoin has made an attempt at a rally, but several red triangles on the KRI have suggested resistance. We seem to have topped out just below our level at $45K for now. The Kovach OBV has quickly leveled off as we encounter resistance. It appears we are in a broad sideways corrective pattern after a large rally took us back to the $40K's again from the high $30K's. If we retrace further, we should see support at $41.9K and $41.6K. If we catch another burst of momentum, we will surely encounter resistance at $45K, then $45.6K, then $46.2K. If we are able to clear these levels the next target is $47.4K, but based on the price action and momentum, this is not likely for now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Retraces from HighsOil has retraced sharply from highs at 95.24. A red triangle on the KRI has confirmed prohibitive resistance and we have sharply retraced, initially finding support at the next level below at 92.03. From here, we made a run for the next level below at 90.06, but have found support just above it. We have currently made an attempt to break past 92.03 again, but momentum appears to be waning. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but we could be encountering overbought conditions. If so, anticipate a sideways correction around current levels, or a retracement down to 90.06 or 88.74. If momentum picks up, we will need to break 95.24 before we can achieve the next target of 96.88.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
All Eyes on Russia Tensions as Stocks Edge HigherStocks have risen a bit off alleviated Ukraine/Russia tensions. Troops have apparently pulled back, though several Ukrainian government institutions have been hacked, which adds some ambiguity to the overall picture. We appear to have an inverse head and shoulders type pattern forming off recent lows, as we penetrated the value area between 4440 and 4272. We have made an attempt to break through to higher levels but 4462 is currently providing resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Watch momentum at the North American open. If we are able to see another burst of momentum, we could make a run for highs in the value area above, where 4580 is likely to provide resistance and prove to be a ceiling for now. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but does appear to be weakening as we meet resistance.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Ethereum Regains $3K!!Ethereum has regained the $3K handle after breaking down from our head and shoulders pattern, testing $2852. We saw strong support here from several green triangles on the KRI, and support held strong until another wave of momentum took us back to the $3K's, past the neckline of our head and shoulders pattern at $3042. Currently, we are just above this level, meeting resistance just below the next target of $3148. We are seeing several red triangles on the KRI throughout this rally, suggesting that momentum may be weakening. If so, anticipate support at $2965 or $2852 again. If not, then $3324 is the next top, a relative high and the "head" of our head and shoulders pattern.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD
by quantguy
Bitcoin Extends the Sideways CorrectionBitcoin has found support in the $41K handle, and made another attempt for relative highs. We were able to inch above $43.8K, but are meeting resistance just below $45K. Several red triangles on the KRI suggest that Bitcoin is struggling to maintain these higher levels, and thus this rally may just be a leg of a broader sideways correction. If so, we anticipate further resistance from $45.0K and $45.6K. If we are able to break $46.2K, then $47.4K is the next target. However if we retrace and continue the sideways correction, we should see support again from the $41K's, and after from $40K. It appears that the markets still see the $30K's as undervalued for BTC but if we retrace further, $38.2K should be a strong level of support.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Next Profit Target!!Oil has reached our target of 95.24, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance, followed by a retracement. We are seeing good support at 92.03, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bullish, with the brief retracement failing to budge it. Thus we have no indication of a reversal any time soon, and are still bullish of oil. It does appear to be looking top heavy, so we can expect a retracement soon, with 90.06 the first candidate for support below. Our next target is 96.88, when momentum resumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Tensions Easing? Stocks Get a LiftStocks have gotten support from 4364, roughly the midpoint of the range they were holding between 4272 and 4440. We have since broken through that high and attempted 4462, the next level above, where we are currently meeting resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. Perhaps this rally follows news that some Russian troops have returned to base, and the Ukranian tensions may be easing a bit. The Kovach OBV has picked up ever so slightly, but if we cannot break through to higher levels, we should see the bear rout return, and test 4440 again, or break lower into the previous value area once more. We still anticipate 4272 as a floor for now. The next major target is 4580 if bull momentum returns.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Litecoin Retraces to the $120'sLitecoin has broken down from the $140's, which appeared to be too top heavy for the beleagured coin at this time. We smashed through the $130's, which did little to provide a buffer to the $120's where we are currently seeing support. The Kovach OBV has dropped off sharply, leveling off as the price action meanders at current levels. If we selloff further, then $114 is the next level. If we see a bounce here, then $130 is the next target, then $134. We must break these two levels definitively to return to 'bull mode'.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by quantguy