AUD/JPY - To repeat the breakdown of 2007/2008? Time will tell!Summary:
All signs are pointing to a significant breakdown in the AUD/JPY...
Commodity currencies are under extreme pressure due to a global slowdown and suppressed commodity prices.
In an extremely volatile and high risk market, investors will fly back into the Yen as a safe haven and dump commodity currencies.
We also have upcoming rate cuts coming out of the RBA, as well as a housing bubble that is soon to pop.
The crash in the Shanghai Index as well as slow growth out of China will put further pressure on the Australian Dollar.
Technicals:
We have broken a significant 7 year trend-line on the Quarterly + Monthly Charts indicating upcoming bearish pressure
We are also resting within the 200/250 EMA's on the weekly chart. If we break below these EMA's, I believe the AUD/JPY will start to turn. Be on the lookout for a possible EMA Death Cross in the near future
Looking at the daily, we are starting to put in lower highs and lower lows which may drive the AUD/JPY lower.
This is something I will be keeping an eye on....
Quarterly
USD/CHF - 25 Year Falling Wedge Breakout Confirmed USD/CHF has broken out of a 25 year falling wedge pattern that began in 1980.
You must purchase high-quality historical data such as eSignal to see past price action on this pair as TradingView only allows day up to 1992 on USD/CHF. The lower trend-line has 4 high quality touches rather than just the two TradingView displays.
When the EUR/CHF peg was removed, the USD/CHF pair suffered massive downside losses due to the rapid appreciation of the CHF. Looking at long-term charts, we can see that this CHF appreciation acted as a fundamental catalyst to retest the backside of the falling wedge after breaking out back in July 2014.
We also reacted beautifully off of the .618 Fibonacci Retracement creating a higher low on the monthly chart for USD/CHF. If the USD continues to appreciate against the CHF, we will end Quarter 1 of 2015 with a massive bullish pinbar on the quarterly chart for this pair.
Confluence:
1. 25 year falling wedge breakout - Bullish Reversal Pattern
2. Retest of upper trend-line / backside of wedge
3. .618 Fibonacci Retracement Respected
4. Higher monthly low formed
5. Price remains buoyant above monthly 50 EMA for the first time since 2001
6. 50/200 EMA Golden Cross about to occur on Weekly Chart. Last cross of these EMA"s was back in 2002 to the downside (Death Cross), last upside cross (Golden Cross) was 1997.
7. Strong USD Fundamentals align with this Bullish View. CHF needs to catch up with USD Index.
8. Price has traded above parity for 5 trading days
Radioshack Corp -RSH -Daily - Quarterly "Box" TrendlinesI like the idea of plotting the entire quarter around the price action so you can see where the stock is during the beginning and end of a quarter and how the quarters stack up against each other.
Then I noticed that a trendline across the top right corner of the quarter gave an interesting price level and then kept drawing them. Notice they are somewhat interesting in this chart of RSH.
Do some work on your own and see what you find.
Tim
9/27/2014 4:03PM EST