Quarterstheory
AUDUSD on watchAussie dollar fell towards 0.6672 after rates cut, where it found strong support and closing above a significant level suggesting a possible validation of the ABCD. With the weakening of the US dollar and the market giving a 73% chance of rates cut at the end of the month we wouldn't be surprised to see the AUD rallying towards the 0.695 level. Something to keep on eye on is the US-China trade.
USDJPY, Potential BUY STOP, breaking and retesting trendlineWe can see that USDJPY has broke the trendline of resistance in yesterday's session, as The Fed's rate decision rallied the U.S. Dollar. The price action so far in today's session is looking to come back below the trendline. In tomorrow's session I would look for a pin bar, with the wick reaching below the trendline. A bullish engulfing candle unlikely as the low-high of today's candle has a range of 50 pips.
Now, if we see price move up to 109.00 we could get hung up there as this is a whole level (quarters level) and we have previously seen 2 taps of resistance. If price action goes bearish here, sells are in place, and we would likely see a doji candle before the market reverses. If we see strong bullish candles past 109.00 I would look for buy entries.
In these trades, my risk is around 30 pips, and targets at 75 pips.
AUDUSD Elliot Wave-Still Moving Past 0.6850 ?AUDUSD is about to make the (final) 4-5 leg 0.6850 is a big place of resistance for 2 reasons:
It's a quarter level, and prices tend to make moves off of these levels. The 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement from the 2-3 leg on the 1H timeframe (prices 0.6837-0.6873) hits exactly 0.6850. So there is a high probability the Elliot Wave completes and ends up around 0.6894
My stop loss is currently set right below the half level
AUDUSD to break 0.6800 Follow-upNow AUDUSD is trading above the 0.6800 level. On the 4H there was strong bullish momentum, so I see price pushing further up.
I have a position of a 20 pips risk. My TP is in between the next quarter levels. I will close most of my position as price climbs up to 0.6850, as the market could get hung up there.
AUDUSD, can we break above 0.6800Aussie spent almost a month (backtracking from a week ago) trading in the 0.6750-0.6800 range after a huge drop in the pair.
We are now just touching 0.6800 . The question is: will we break above or stay inside the range again?
AUDJPY Triangle Breakout (WRITTEN IDEA)AUDJPY has been trading in this triangle for the past 8 days. It looks like we are breaking out of the triangle to the upside.
I am not looking to trade the retest(this could happen) but this is somewhat riskier. I would recommend lowering your lot size slightly if you want to trade off of the retest. I am looking for strong bullish momentum (I have a buy stop @71.750) with a 25 pips SL and a target in between the next quarters level.
Price action is already looking strong to the upside on the 4H, so I would recommend getting into this trade soon if you're going to take it.
AUDJPY Triangle Breakout (VIDEO IDEA)AUDJPY looking to break out of the triangle. Watch video. I will upload a written idea
AUDUSD LongExpecting price to eventually breakout to the upside for a reversal. Watch for a bullish breakout and retest for entries...
AUDUSD time for the bullsAfter about 12 days of serious downside movement we have seen 4 daily candles respecting the 0.6750 support level. 0.6750 is a Major Large Quarter Point. Prices have not traded this low since 2009.
Why all the bearish movement? Rate cuts and monetary policy, not just the US cutting rates. Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut rates, which pressures Australia (a big trading partner) to do the same. And as the dollar overall strengthens (look at DXY) AUDUSD falls.
So we saw rejection off 0.6750 I am looking for it to make its ascent. Buy in on a pullback (higher low) on the 1H timeframe. Please TIME your trade and look at price action. You don't want to buy before the pullback.
I have my targets set at the next whole level 0.6900. Set SL according to your risk. This will be held for at least a week.
USDCAD ScenarioWill be discussed on IML TV July 24 2019
Message me on TradingView if you are unsure of how to access the live class.
Trading involves risk and this is an optional idea to follow along with.
USDJPY LONG buy in on pullback.I apologize my chart is looking a bit crazy today.
So we can see UJ has come to the end of a market at the price 106.84 and we are currently in the 2-3 leg of an elliot wave (the Fib retracements are confirming this). The pullback (the '4' of the elliot wave) is where I will buy in. I'm going to ride the 4-5 wave to the upside.
The pullback should happen quickly (next day or so) because of the big price increase in the 0-1 leg (~160 pips). I do not have a buy limit set so I am waiting for daily pullback at about 108.60 near that quater point . The target range in 120 pips. I will have a SL at 40 pips.
AUDUSD Sell Limit at 0.7050 Quarter LevelLooking on the daily chart, AUDUSD is close to approaching the 0.7050 quarter level. In late April and mid May we saw resistance taps at that half level, so I am looking for price action to be bearish on lower time frames near 0.7050 and take a sell from there.
Could it go bullish from here? I do not believe so. Looking at the Elliot 5-wave (0-1 leg: 0.6849-0.7033) price is currently in the 2-3 leg. In classical Elliot Wave Theory, the 2-3 leg is the biggest move, which means price would need to move greater than 200 pips without much retracement, this is unlikely.
Sell Limit very low risk right at the half level 0.7050. Sell at market with medium light risk once bearish price action is seen in lower timeframes.
I will have a 20 pip SL and a 50 pip TP
USDJPY BUY at whole level 108Price have been moving between 108 and 108.5 for some time (Quarter points) so when we hit 108 it should respect that quarter level.
SL 20 pips TP 50 pips , entry right at 108
Sooner or later it needs to pullback Confirmations:
- for about a month now we have gone on a downtrend and market needs to pull back up
- Three pins to the low
- Divergence and price above liquid 50
- price resisting well hesitation zone of the quarter and should retrase back to previous Major Whole Number
EURCAD Long Typical BTMM strategy
We can see on the charts how last week we had a bearish cycle going down to 1.49250 yet could not break that zone. After that, we made a multi session W formation and today we are coming in to create a wedge that should breakout soon enough to create a new higher high and change momentum for this trade to the upside. Stop is a bit too much in my case but I am hoping for a good long term swing to the upside so If price keeps going up I may even keep this open hopefully.
Confirmations:
- second level rise off a wedge
- price could not break hesitation zone of 1.49250 so it could not go to next quarter, therefore it must go up
- on 4h we see price pinning liquid 50 and baseline so im hoping for a rejection off that key level
- reversal should come in London Session
- price is above large quarter point of 1.50000 and should go up to next quarter point of 1.525000
AUDJPY Going long until further noticePrice struggles to make a new lower low and could not reach the quarter level and psychological level of 75.00. We can see a double top formation coming along with ideal divergence after a macro level cycle finished on a wedge that has been occurring for a matter of weeks now. Going to be looking for long opportunities
Confirmations:
- Double Bottom
- Price struggles to make a new low and reach quarter level
- Price divergence on TDI and above liquid 50 (yellow line in TDI)
- macro cycle has finished with 3 long term pushes to the downside
EURAUD macro cycle finished and holding price in large quarterPrice has found resistance in a large quarter point and psychological number of 1.625000. As we can see as well, this correlates with a large macro cycle being finished and made a large M formation between last week and this week. Im looking to enter this coming days as midweek reversal and hold for a long term cycle down for a good 500 pips potentially.
Confirmations:
- divergence on TDI on 4h with first leg above band and second band below liquid 50
- macro cycle has finished and holding current price
- price has finished quarter cycle and held position on 1.62500 and has never past it or made a new high
- price made a new higher low but struggles to make a new higher high and consolidates below the high
- AUD pairs seem to be having a bit of consolidation across the board.
EURAUD for next coming weeks Price has struggled to breach the large quarter point of 1.62500. This coincides with a macro cycle of three pushes that has finished (as can be seen in chart in blue squares) and correlates with finished cycle of micro cycle (pink squares). We have divergence on higher timeframes of TDI which indicate a long term swing. Going to be looking to enter in london
Confirmations:
- 4h divergence with first leg on top of band and second leg below the liquid 50
- respected large quarter point of 1.625000 and created a double top formation
- finished macro cycle indicating a good swing
- micro cycle has finished as well
- price made a new lower high but never made a new higher high after it pinned 1.625
- AUD pairs have been slowing a bit in the past week and we can notice exhaustion in price
Backtesting Quarters Theory BACKTESTING ON A DEMO
NOT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY
- 200 ema and 800 ema have not crossed so we may be seeing one last push down
- two pins off the 200 for a reset
- respected the liquid 50 and is below market baseline
- pointing for the next quarter
3 TPs
- TP1 on hestiation zone @ 1.94250 (90 pips)
- TP2 on half way point @ 1.93750 (130 pips)
- TP3 on large quarter point @ 1.92500 (260 pips)
AUDUSD Potential BUY at MLQPAUDUSD is currently hovering at the MLQP of 0.7000 , also a psychological price. It is expected to keep support and bounce off of this level.
Look at price action over the next hour or so for support taps. After a second tap, buy in with 20 pips SL and 50 pips TP
UJ ABC Corrective Wave (sideways)Prediction of an ABC corrective wave following the 50pip move on the Elliot-5-Wave to the downside. Looking for the market to consolidate, then possibly make another drop after encountering resistance off the current whole level.
Watch price action
