IRFC WeeklyIRFC About to Give Strong Breakout.
Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) was set up on 12th December, 1986 as the dedicated financing arm of the Indian Railways for mobilizing funds from domestic as well as overseas Capital Markets.
IRFC is a Schedule ‘A’ Public Sector Enterprise under the administrative control of the Ministry of Railways, Govt. of India. It is also registered as Systemically Important Non–Deposit taking Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC – ND-SI) and Infrastructure Finance Company (NBFC- IFC) with Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
In more than 30 years of existence, IRFC has played a significant role in supporting the expansion of the Indian Railways and related entities by financing a significant proportion of its annual plan outlay.
Only for educational Purposes.
Railways
IRCTCHello and welcome to this analysis
In the month of December 2022, Govt announced divestment which lead to gap down openings on the consecutive days. the 2nd gap down activated a Bearish Island Reversal.
From 600 it appears to have completed a Dead Cat Bounce and now could continue its downtrend.
It has resistance at 650 while support comes in at 610 and below that near 575 where it could complete this down move.
1Y PERFORMANCE OF INDIA REILWAY STOCK PERFORMANCE COMPARE NIFTYThe india railway sector most of the stcok in outperform the nifty 50, Only IRCTC is underperform the nifty50 return, the structural change in the india railway stock in the recent year, this is show in the chart. i am bullish in the this sector.
CNI Transportation Infrastructure Swing LongCNI is a Canadian Rail company. With the possible strike in the US, this
company can help take goods from China to the east part of North America.
Technically it is a solid performer with good recent earnings. This is
a slow but steady mover low beta ignores the general stock market and
a recession will have little impact. In the past month no matter any
bear market rally overall, CNI has had relative strength.
I will go long with a far-out call option to grind out some profit with
low risk of unexpected volatility.
option.
Long the IRCTC stock - Analysis for 27 Oct 2021Hello, This is my Technical Analysis for Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC) stock.
According to my analysis the price will go up.
We should take a Buy entry at 4210
The target should be at 4390
Stop Loss at 4088
Note: This is just a Technical Analysis (it doesn't guarantee that the analysis will always be the correct) if by any chance we don't reach to our targeted price and you lose money then I will not be the liable person for your trade/investment on any particular asset that you have made, only you will be the responsible for your lose. Thank you for understanding.
Union Pacific Signaling Buy Train AheadBased on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on September 17, 2021 with a closing price of 201.93.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 203.49 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.45% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.132% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 9.312% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.75% rise must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 22 trading bars; half occur within 32 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 38 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
Stocks/Industrials - CNR Railroad WarsIdea for Canadian National Railway:
- An interesting thing has occurred. CNR approached Kansas City Southern (KSU) with an unsolicited offer that would merge the companies to become the first and only single railroad to cross Canada, the US, and Mexico. A combination of either CNR or CP with KSU would do this. Naturally, CP will want to stop this existential threat at all costs.
- Such a deal must pass massive regulatory scrutiny and receive approval from the Surface Transportation Board.
- CP filed a formal objection to the rival bid with the STB, which has the final say on rail acquisitions in the US, in order to buy time. The 10% price drop in CNR during the 30% rise of KSU reflects the euphoric investors now pricing in the probability of a deal and a no-deal.
- The bottom line is that deal, or no-deal, CNR is at quite the discount, for investors bullish on defensive stocks in the industrials/transportations sectors.
Our speculation is that the deal will occur, and it will occur for CNR. Why?
- We believe that a macro turn is here. We are bullish on the industrials/transportation sectors.
- This aligns with our belief in the theme that that a time is here such that companies in all sectors to undergo mergers & acquisitions, in a race to become "Too Big To Fail" and obtain the blessing of government subsidization before the inevitable mass bail-ins.
- As the global economy moves toward Stagflation, and perhaps Deflation, investors will decrease their risk appetite appropriate for a Goldilocks economy, and will rotate from Momentum and Consumer Discretionary stocks to Quality, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Dividend Yields, and Defensives stocks.
- We foresee a ravenous appetite in the supply chain sector, due to (a) COVID shipping backlog, which will only increase should COVID mutate and cause further lockdowns, (b) nations moving toward domestic production, which will increase intranational logistics and infrastructure demands, and (c) a shift from a software-oriented tech boom to a boom in the industrials and capital goods sector, from what we perceive is being attempted with the US stimulus packages.
- CNR is the bigger company, and has more resources at its disposal. At such a junction, the time has come for them to bet everything on becoming the undisputed railway leader in the Americas before the industrials boom cycle.
- CP's objection is simply a tactic to buy time, but CNR will inevitably come back with an even greater offer. At the end of this game, CP cannot win, but only come out in a stalemate, which will not benefit KSU. What they could do is continue to be a thorn in CNR's side until they receive a favorable portion of the pie, such as % ownership of the new entity.
- KSU will at least want to maintain the façade of considering any deals, to keep the momentum in their stock price.
- CP may offer a great entry later on, should they fail in their efforts and investors abandon them.
- Technically, the prices must converge. CNR is at the bottom of a horizontal channel, but it would be apt to observe the reaction to the correction before entry, to see if it is indeed an over-reaction.
- We doubt that institutional investors will let this opportunity pass and allow a 100 year old defensive company and Canada's largest railway to fall further. 120~ is the lowest we think it could fall.
- Interestingly, Bill Gates has recently become the largest single shareholder of CN stock, owning a 10.04% interest. We have further speculations about Bill Gates' ESG objectives, which for now - shows large investors' confidence in the company.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Stadler Rail,Soon to be a BUY, 10% Trade!FA:
Dividend Yielding stock, therefore, one that a lot of investors consider in their portfolio.
Flight travel is lower, reopening of several rail line due to the increase in demand of rail travel.
TA:
Not currently a good buy area, would be wise to set buy orders near support line or treat it as a longer play and buy in now and ride the retracement till it begins to move up.
But always remember, if a stock falls by 2%- it has to then rise by 4% of the new price for you to be at break even again- based on that judgement, watch your trade entries wisely.
PS. Not investment advice, please be responsible and trade diligently and manage risk.
-Megalodon (Rahim)
You are welcome to post your ideas or share your point of view :)
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