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This could already be the correction akin to the 2012 rallyIn another view, in case we drop further, to the weekly middle Bollinger band at around 5300, we probably will see the birth of a new triangle with a longer consolidation phase. Of course, we could still see the parabola being finished like in this view: But below 7000, I'd say that this view probably is done for. This could have happened with a shorter dip and fast rebound, but this dump could develop into something longer. We have to wait and see how it will develop and how deep this dump will go. Going to the weekly middle Bband would be akind to the second 2012 rally, that's exactly what happened then. We'd get a few months of sideways consolidation, until a strong breakout to the upside. Even though some people still like to draw their huge arrows pointing down to almost zero at every dump, this market is clearly bullish now. One just needs to look at the huge volumes we had in this runup. Also, daily transactions are quite high and it won't be long until they make new highs. So, now BTC must decide if it does want to continue the parabola, or make the long sideways consolidation. I'm fine with either way, hehe :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
NEO – bullish pattern – 35% quick gain possible.Hi Guys! We are sure many of you heard about NEO. It made 350X gain in 2017 . Will it repeat its success? Well, maybe it won’t be as much spectacular as it was two years ago but… Let’s take a look at the chart and indicators. • The current price level is one of the lowest ever. This is the accumulation time . • Ichimoku Cloud - The new bullish bar starts above the TenkanSen(red) and KijunSen(blue) and the bottom of the cloud. GOOD. • Weis Waves – The supply is falling down since the beginning of May. Nice amount of demand has shown up. • Bullish ascending triangle observed – our minimum target is 0.002300 • Further target possible – 0.002740 So this should give us a quick 35% profit according to the bullish ascending triangle theory . Wait till this triangle is broken up . What do you think? Are you on board? Thank you for reading. Hit a like to support. MASSIVE Hugs! WBM Team
Long
by WBM_Team
Important fib levels for the possible BTC correctionA short update on this possible correction here taking place using the fibonacci levels of the whole move 3100 to 9100 USD. We get 6800, 6100 and 5300 as the important support levels. I think it is realistic that it goes to 6100, 6800 seems a bit optimistic for me, and 5300 seems a bit too pessimistic. But it should play out kinda like this over the next weeks. Let's see if BTC surprises us again with an upward spike instead.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
11
BTC parabolic rise could lead to 20k in extreme caseI don't think that yesterdays dump was the end of this parabolic rise. BTC stabilized too fast for it being the end of this move. Plus, the perfect parabolic shape is just too painfully obvious to ignore. I see two important resistance zones, the upper monthly bollinger band at 12-13k, and the ATH resistance at 20k. There are of course other resistances, but those two are very strong. So, in the most bullish case, BTC could indeed go to 20k by the end of June. Then a few months of sideways after the dump, and drawing a nice giant cup and handle with the ATH. In the normal bull case, we'll see 12-13k as the intermediary top, dump to 7-8k, and consolidate at these levels until the upmove resumes. This all is highly interesting, and we could see BTC do something which it has not done before. A move to 20k directly from here, would not have a precedent, there is no fractal which is similar from the timing and velocity of the move. I find it highly fascinating. But the parabola still has one hole month left until going vertical, and we all know what can happen in one month :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
23
BTC needs to touch daily MA200 again.Well, the idea is simple and short. Like in 2012 or in 2015/16, after this first rally of the new bullmarket, we'll need to retest the daily MA200. I've drawn a possible future daily MA200, taking the second 2012 rally, to which I see many similarities. BTC will at least go to 10k first, it could of course also overshoot to 12k or the like. However, we need a stronger correction to get down again from overbought levels on the weekly timeframe. I think a correction down to 5-6k will happen and is healthy. Afterwards, stabilization and consolidation in the 6-7k range for a few months, until the daily MA200 comes up so that BTC touches it, going sideways. Then, the next leg up will happen. That's my current view, if BTC sticks to the old rules. Which by the way, it might not, as we have seen with the "no capitulation spike" low at 3200 USD. So again, this is a probability for which I see a high chance. Many people don't get that trading is about probabilities. They are like: HAHAHA! You were wrong that time, you are a bad trader. Well, the best traders can't achieve more than a 60-70% success ratio. 30-40% will always be bad calls, best case. This stuff is about longterm strategy, readjusting fast, not clinging to beliefs, not being biased in any way. BTC does something unexpected, fine, readjust yourself, readjust your strategy, adapt to the new situation immediately. Don't cling to a certain picture because you don't like it that you were wrong. Only then can one have success in this market. That's my opinion, and that's at least what worked for me.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
8
Bullflag formation forming. Chance for push to 10kThis is a view, how a push to 10k might still be possible. Even higher imho possible. If we don't correct now, and the double top therefore doesn't materialize, as I feared today in the morning, we could indeed see an upwards break of this triangle. Highly interesting times we are witnessing. I am myself quite unsure now, that's why I post this differing view from today morning. Trade with care, BTC is berserk at the moment. The indicators are treacherous atm.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
16
Important support levels for this BTC correctionSo apparently BTC doesn't want to push for 10k just yet, and needs to rest a little. But how low can it go? We can identify important support levels by the Fib retracement for the whole move from 3200 to 8500, and with the volume profile. We can see that 6500 is the most important support level. If it holds, then we see a resuming of the rally from that level. If it should break however, I see the 5700 of not very important. The volume profile there indicates that it will offer weak support, and it will break down to the 5100 level, which therefore has a higher probability of happening than the 5700 level. So it depends all on wether the 6500 support will hold. Either way, I see this here as a necessary correction, because the weekly Stoch RSI has been on 100 ultra overbought for many weeks now. We will see a resuming of the rally in the coming months and pushing towards 10k and even beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
BTC: The ultrabull caseI am more conservative on BTC normally and think we'll hit the ATH sometime in 2021, at around 100K, maybe 150K with luck. It's better to be conservative imho, than to be overly optimistic and then be disappointed. However, there is a slight chance, that BTC does something crazy, and this ultra bullish scenario would qualify as something like this for me. I don't think it's very likely to occur, but we should never rule something out in BTC. THis last bull move has been aggressive, and as it still doesn't show signs of slowing down, we can assume we'll certainly see 10k in this pump. But what if, instead of large dumps, we'll get 2-3 months of sideways, so that all indicators can cool off from overbought to oversold again, until the next pump starts from a very high level, say, 8k. This could develop into a crazy double rally like in 2013. First hitting the curved red upper resistance line, and then in the next try, break through it, and create therefore a new, aggressive exponential upper trend channel. I would put the probability for this to below 10%, and 90% for the conservative 100k in 2021. But it's still fun to think about these possibilities. Because in the end, BTC is like quantum mechanics: There are many possibilities that co-exist at the same time, a superposition of states if you will. And then, suddenly, BTC will decide for one of these many possibilities. But of course only if we look at the chart. Schrödingers Bitcoin so to speak :) But which path will BTC take? We shall find out in the coming months.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
21
No, BTC is not done yet. One last push to 10k coming!And again, everyone starts drawing the arrows down, lol. Everytime BTC makes a pause, the traders come out and draw the arrows pointing down, to at least 6k now from 8.5k. The dump at 8.5k wasn't strong enough. The reaction was weak, as if the resistance wasn't even that important. The same happened at the mighty 7.5k resistance area, which tunred out not to be so mighty after all. And 6.5k? As if it wasn't even a resistance, lol ! So, BTC is preparing one last push imho, this would also fight the weekly picture. To 10k, then dump to 5-6k, and oscillating around 6k until it stabilizes at 6k and prepares for the next bullrun in early 2020, but this time, targeting the old ATH. Which of course it will break at some point in 2020, making hew highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
24
Ripple monthly chart looking very bullishLooking at XRP's monthly chart, we see a structure forming that is very much like the triangle at the end of the last bearmarket. This time, the bearmarket is also coming to an end, and XRP is poised to break up to the upside (if BTC doesn't decide to do insane dumps). If BTC sideways or further up, we'll see a strong breakout, because XRPUSD is extremely oversold on monthly timeframe. But I don't see very high prices for XRP this year or 2020. The really insane prices will come once BTC goes over the last ATH. Then altcoin rallies will start as always and XRP will reach wonderfully insane values. At least x10 above old top, so 30+ USD. How high is possible, I don't know, I'd rather remain conservative, but yeah, 30 USD is already insane enough, hehe. Anyways, I'm not an XRP shill, because I see altcoins as tools to gain more BTC. And which tool I use, if it's tool Nr.1, Nr.2 or Nr.n, n being an integer, I really don't care. I am just interested in altcoins for their wonderful potential of gaining more BTC or USD. And in XRP I definitely see that potential for the next 2-3 years.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
14
Monero lagging behind bitcoin: Eliott wave analysisI've been taking a look at Monero, and this coin looks interesting: 1. It didn't climb a lot since the low in December 2. It XMRUSD basically looks EXACTLY the same as BTCUSD 3. It's doing the same as bitcoin, but lagging behindt 4. It's now where bitcoin was 1-2 months ago 5. The coin itself is interesting because of fundamentals, anonymity etc So, I have to revise my last analysis, which was based on an older idea for bitcoin. But now that bitcoin is confirmed in ultra berserk mode, we of course also have other implications for altcoins. So the above points, together with an Eliott wave count, let me believe that XMRUSD will see a nice rally, basically mirroring BTCs rally, but with delay. We currently haven't even started wave 3 yet in XMR, while BTC has done wave 3 and hit it's peak at 7500, currently waiting for wave 5 to 10k. If nothing crazy or unforeseen happens to bitcoin, I think the likelihood for an XMR rally is high. Of course, the really insane altcoin rallies will start in 2020+, when we'll see good old x10 and more :)
BITFINEX:XMRUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
5
BTC: Why the bullmarket already started earlier this timeI was also taken by surprise that the bullmarket started earlier this time, than back in 2015. Back then, we had a whole year of consolidation with a classic Wych accumulation phase for the whole year of 2015. With two shakeouts. A look at the monthly picture tells us, that the monthly Stoch RSI is already starting to rise sharply, going above 20. Last time this happened, we saw the start of the bullmarket, which happened in late 2015. So this should have accordingly happened in late 2019. But apparently this time we're 6 months too early. Why, what's going on? Well, I have some theories. 1. More people know about the halving in mid 2020, and want to get in as early as possible => More early buying => Earlier bullmarket start 2. Stock indices are performing very strongly, and I see a positive correlation between BTC and stocks. If stocks make new ATHs, BTC will perform also strongly 3. Number of daily transactions soon at ATH: www.blockchain.com Therefore adoption is continuing. Also some other positive news as potential ETF and lightning network etc. Therefore, we might see the top of this bull cycle already in mid 2021, something like May-July 2021. Interesting and surprising, because I thought BTC would rather slow down. But one has to instantly adapt if BTC changes its behavior.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
6
BTC to 4k - SHORT (Hypothetical failure of multiple supports)I'd be fully prepared for a jump back to 5k8 but I dare say that rally will fail. If it happens and does fail, we're most likely gonna be going back to looking for support around 4k8. If that support fails, it's back to the 4k range. If that fails.. Welll.... I'd expect a 2k8 BITTREX:BTCUSD within months. Support Levels I believe that would need to successively fail in order for Bitcoin to reach true bottom. T.$4k8 T.$4k T.$3k4 T.$2k8 An attempt at $6k then finding support @ 5k8 will invalidate this trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Crypt0zTrading
Why I still think it likely for BTC to go to 7500 in this rallyI was long thinking on why this recent rally has happened and searching for clues in the past of similar events. Then I discovered something very interesting. Every time BTC broke the previous linear trend in the logarithmic chart, it retested it, not long afterward. It happened after the 2011 bearmarket, it happened in the 2014/15 bearmarket, and even if it took longer to unfold this time, it seems to be happening now. And as for: BTC must correct because the weekly stoch RSI is on overbought now for over 1 month, take a look at historical weekly stoch RSI's. If BTC does a rally, it can stay on overbought for up to 4 months, the record of the April 2013 bubble. But it also stayed on overbought for 2 1/2 and 3 months on other occasions. We are now at almost 2 months, so it can still stay there for 2 weeks, in the extreme case even 4 weeks. Overbought for 4 months is unlikely though imho. So this means we could see 2-4 green weeklys. A retest of the previous linear trend would lead us to the price point that I mentioned: 7500. Afterwards we would see a stronger correction and retest of the long squareroot trendline, before the rally will pick up steam in 2020, and go to new ATHs in 2021.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
20
Bitcoin's Previous Beark Market and it's SimilaritiesWe are about 500 days into the bear market now and I thought it would be fun to record the similarities between the current bear market and the previous one. Below, we may see what the future could look like. To start, we can see the bottom of the previous bear market was almost 87% less than the all time high compared to the current 84% bottom. Both times it took about a year to get there. (Show in the chart above.) Below we see on July 9, 2015 (one year before the bitcoin halving) price had rallied to the 50 week moving average (red line) then subsequently fell by 34%. This was the last low before price rallied to the halving date. Now, keep in mind history will not repeat PERFECTLY . Recently, price rallied to the 50 week moving average on April 23, 2019. This movement is very similar to the previous one albeit a little early if we are considering the "one year before halving" prediction. We also notice that after price bounced off the 50 week moving average it fell down to the 200 week moving average (blue line). I find it very interesting that the 34% decline in both scenarios line up with the 200 week moving average closely. So far, the symmetry is uncanny, to say the least. I feel like, until we see a major deviation in this pattern, we can expect a similar outcome. I am expecting one more drop before we see a significant rally. I will be looking for bullish news leading up to the drop. If the majority of traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade then it would be reasonable to see a lot of talk about bitcoin being in a bull market and that price could go to $X,XXX. The price retraction should catch people by surprise. On the other hand... Some things are different this time around. People are more aware of bitcoin, it's halving, and it's 4 year cycle. As well as the new option for short trades. I'm still trying to decide how these factor in. I am still bullish and I am still expecting a retraction in the near term, but unsure of how great the upside will be. As of now, I am confident price can reach $10k. After the halving next year, I won't be surprised to see price between $30k and $50k, but I am unsure the likelihood of that outcome due to the ability to short sell now and the upcoming economic downturn/ global financial crisis. I am curious about your opinion on this analysis. Please leave a comment about your thoughts on how short selling and the upcoming crash could affect the future of bitcoin. As well as any thoughts on how greater bitcoin awareness will affect it's future price. I can see both sides and am interested in gathering opinions. PM me if you do not won't your comments public, I would still like to hear from you. As always: Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst
Yes, Up againAn up move to come imminently. My BUY button was just pressed until 5770 USD! Bitcoin is bullish indeed. There is 2 micro-crossing which happened not that late. I've tagged the first one on April 22nd 2019 at 15:00 (3PM GMT). That ended in a huge move really soon. Another micro-crossing has just happened on the last hour. Those 2 micro-crossings are visible in the S4W/Mirror-Stop indicator. Just try to zoom those 2 blue box in it. To see how slim they are. I'm getting the confirmation also from the S4W/Horizon indicator, that a bullish moment has started. It happened where I drew the pink vertical line. So it's a fresh bull move. Right now, I think the move will go a little around 5770 USD. PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Atemak