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Bullflag formation forming. Chance for push to 10kThis is a view, how a push to 10k might still be possible. Even higher imho possible. If we don't correct now, and the double top therefore doesn't materialize, as I feared today in the morning, we could indeed see an upwards break of this triangle. Highly interesting times we are witnessing. I am myself quite unsure now, that's why I post this differing view from today morning. Trade with care, BTC is berserk at the moment. The indicators are treacherous atm.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
16
Important support levels for this BTC correctionSo apparently BTC doesn't want to push for 10k just yet, and needs to rest a little. But how low can it go? We can identify important support levels by the Fib retracement for the whole move from 3200 to 8500, and with the volume profile. We can see that 6500 is the most important support level. If it holds, then we see a resuming of the rally from that level. If it should break however, I see the 5700 of not very important. The volume profile there indicates that it will offer weak support, and it will break down to the 5100 level, which therefore has a higher probability of happening than the 5700 level. So it depends all on wether the 6500 support will hold. Either way, I see this here as a necessary correction, because the weekly Stoch RSI has been on 100 ultra overbought for many weeks now. We will see a resuming of the rally in the coming months and pushing towards 10k and even beyond.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
BTC: The ultrabull caseI am more conservative on BTC normally and think we'll hit the ATH sometime in 2021, at around 100K, maybe 150K with luck. It's better to be conservative imho, than to be overly optimistic and then be disappointed. However, there is a slight chance, that BTC does something crazy, and this ultra bullish scenario would qualify as something like this for me. I don't think it's very likely to occur, but we should never rule something out in BTC. THis last bull move has been aggressive, and as it still doesn't show signs of slowing down, we can assume we'll certainly see 10k in this pump. But what if, instead of large dumps, we'll get 2-3 months of sideways, so that all indicators can cool off from overbought to oversold again, until the next pump starts from a very high level, say, 8k. This could develop into a crazy double rally like in 2013. First hitting the curved red upper resistance line, and then in the next try, break through it, and create therefore a new, aggressive exponential upper trend channel. I would put the probability for this to below 10%, and 90% for the conservative 100k in 2021. But it's still fun to think about these possibilities. Because in the end, BTC is like quantum mechanics: There are many possibilities that co-exist at the same time, a superposition of states if you will. And then, suddenly, BTC will decide for one of these many possibilities. But of course only if we look at the chart. Schrödingers Bitcoin so to speak :) But which path will BTC take? We shall find out in the coming months.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
21
No, BTC is not done yet. One last push to 10k coming!And again, everyone starts drawing the arrows down, lol. Everytime BTC makes a pause, the traders come out and draw the arrows pointing down, to at least 6k now from 8.5k. The dump at 8.5k wasn't strong enough. The reaction was weak, as if the resistance wasn't even that important. The same happened at the mighty 7.5k resistance area, which tunred out not to be so mighty after all. And 6.5k? As if it wasn't even a resistance, lol ! So, BTC is preparing one last push imho, this would also fight the weekly picture. To 10k, then dump to 5-6k, and oscillating around 6k until it stabilizes at 6k and prepares for the next bullrun in early 2020, but this time, targeting the old ATH. Which of course it will break at some point in 2020, making hew highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
24
Ripple monthly chart looking very bullishLooking at XRP's monthly chart, we see a structure forming that is very much like the triangle at the end of the last bearmarket. This time, the bearmarket is also coming to an end, and XRP is poised to break up to the upside (if BTC doesn't decide to do insane dumps). If BTC sideways or further up, we'll see a strong breakout, because XRPUSD is extremely oversold on monthly timeframe. But I don't see very high prices for XRP this year or 2020. The really insane prices will come once BTC goes over the last ATH. Then altcoin rallies will start as always and XRP will reach wonderfully insane values. At least x10 above old top, so 30+ USD. How high is possible, I don't know, I'd rather remain conservative, but yeah, 30 USD is already insane enough, hehe. Anyways, I'm not an XRP shill, because I see altcoins as tools to gain more BTC. And which tool I use, if it's tool Nr.1, Nr.2 or Nr.n, n being an integer, I really don't care. I am just interested in altcoins for their wonderful potential of gaining more BTC or USD. And in XRP I definitely see that potential for the next 2-3 years.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
14
Monero lagging behind bitcoin: Eliott wave analysisI've been taking a look at Monero, and this coin looks interesting: 1. It didn't climb a lot since the low in December 2. It XMRUSD basically looks EXACTLY the same as BTCUSD 3. It's doing the same as bitcoin, but lagging behindt 4. It's now where bitcoin was 1-2 months ago 5. The coin itself is interesting because of fundamentals, anonymity etc So, I have to revise my last analysis, which was based on an older idea for bitcoin. But now that bitcoin is confirmed in ultra berserk mode, we of course also have other implications for altcoins. So the above points, together with an Eliott wave count, let me believe that XMRUSD will see a nice rally, basically mirroring BTCs rally, but with delay. We currently haven't even started wave 3 yet in XMR, while BTC has done wave 3 and hit it's peak at 7500, currently waiting for wave 5 to 10k. If nothing crazy or unforeseen happens to bitcoin, I think the likelihood for an XMR rally is high. Of course, the really insane altcoin rallies will start in 2020+, when we'll see good old x10 and more :)
BITFINEX:XMRUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
5
BTC: Why the bullmarket already started earlier this timeI was also taken by surprise that the bullmarket started earlier this time, than back in 2015. Back then, we had a whole year of consolidation with a classic Wych accumulation phase for the whole year of 2015. With two shakeouts. A look at the monthly picture tells us, that the monthly Stoch RSI is already starting to rise sharply, going above 20. Last time this happened, we saw the start of the bullmarket, which happened in late 2015. So this should have accordingly happened in late 2019. But apparently this time we're 6 months too early. Why, what's going on? Well, I have some theories. 1. More people know about the halving in mid 2020, and want to get in as early as possible => More early buying => Earlier bullmarket start 2. Stock indices are performing very strongly, and I see a positive correlation between BTC and stocks. If stocks make new ATHs, BTC will perform also strongly 3. Number of daily transactions soon at ATH: www.blockchain.com Therefore adoption is continuing. Also some other positive news as potential ETF and lightning network etc. Therefore, we might see the top of this bull cycle already in mid 2021, something like May-July 2021. Interesting and surprising, because I thought BTC would rather slow down. But one has to instantly adapt if BTC changes its behavior.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
6
BTC to 4k - SHORT (Hypothetical failure of multiple supports)I'd be fully prepared for a jump back to 5k8 but I dare say that rally will fail. If it happens and does fail, we're most likely gonna be going back to looking for support around 4k8. If that support fails, it's back to the 4k range. If that fails.. Welll.... I'd expect a 2k8 BITTREX:BTCUSD within months. Support Levels I believe that would need to successively fail in order for Bitcoin to reach true bottom. T.$4k8 T.$4k T.$3k4 T.$2k8 An attempt at $6k then finding support @ 5k8 will invalidate this trade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Crypt0zTrading
Why I still think it likely for BTC to go to 7500 in this rallyI was long thinking on why this recent rally has happened and searching for clues in the past of similar events. Then I discovered something very interesting. Every time BTC broke the previous linear trend in the logarithmic chart, it retested it, not long afterward. It happened after the 2011 bearmarket, it happened in the 2014/15 bearmarket, and even if it took longer to unfold this time, it seems to be happening now. And as for: BTC must correct because the weekly stoch RSI is on overbought now for over 1 month, take a look at historical weekly stoch RSI's. If BTC does a rally, it can stay on overbought for up to 4 months, the record of the April 2013 bubble. But it also stayed on overbought for 2 1/2 and 3 months on other occasions. We are now at almost 2 months, so it can still stay there for 2 weeks, in the extreme case even 4 weeks. Overbought for 4 months is unlikely though imho. So this means we could see 2-4 green weeklys. A retest of the previous linear trend would lead us to the price point that I mentioned: 7500. Afterwards we would see a stronger correction and retest of the long squareroot trendline, before the rally will pick up steam in 2020, and go to new ATHs in 2021.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
20
Bitcoin's Previous Beark Market and it's SimilaritiesWe are about 500 days into the bear market now and I thought it would be fun to record the similarities between the current bear market and the previous one. Below, we may see what the future could look like. To start, we can see the bottom of the previous bear market was almost 87% less than the all time high compared to the current 84% bottom. Both times it took about a year to get there. (Show in the chart above.) Below we see on July 9, 2015 (one year before the bitcoin halving) price had rallied to the 50 week moving average (red line) then subsequently fell by 34%. This was the last low before price rallied to the halving date. Now, keep in mind history will not repeat PERFECTLY . Recently, price rallied to the 50 week moving average on April 23, 2019. This movement is very similar to the previous one albeit a little early if we are considering the "one year before halving" prediction. We also notice that after price bounced off the 50 week moving average it fell down to the 200 week moving average (blue line). I find it very interesting that the 34% decline in both scenarios line up with the 200 week moving average closely. So far, the symmetry is uncanny, to say the least. I feel like, until we see a major deviation in this pattern, we can expect a similar outcome. I am expecting one more drop before we see a significant rally. I will be looking for bullish news leading up to the drop. If the majority of traders are usually on the wrong side of the trade then it would be reasonable to see a lot of talk about bitcoin being in a bull market and that price could go to $X,XXX. The price retraction should catch people by surprise. On the other hand... Some things are different this time around. People are more aware of bitcoin, it's halving, and it's 4 year cycle. As well as the new option for short trades. I'm still trying to decide how these factor in. I am still bullish and I am still expecting a retraction in the near term, but unsure of how great the upside will be. As of now, I am confident price can reach $10k. After the halving next year, I won't be surprised to see price between $30k and $50k, but I am unsure the likelihood of that outcome due to the ability to short sell now and the upcoming economic downturn/ global financial crisis. I am curious about your opinion on this analysis. Please leave a comment about your thoughts on how short selling and the upcoming crash could affect the future of bitcoin. As well as any thoughts on how greater bitcoin awareness will affect it's future price. I can see both sides and am interested in gathering opinions. PM me if you do not won't your comments public, I would still like to hear from you. As always: Not financial advice. Always do your own research.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst
Yes, Up againAn up move to come imminently. My BUY button was just pressed until 5770 USD! Bitcoin is bullish indeed. There is 2 micro-crossing which happened not that late. I've tagged the first one on April 22nd 2019 at 15:00 (3PM GMT). That ended in a huge move really soon. Another micro-crossing has just happened on the last hour. Those 2 micro-crossings are visible in the S4W/Mirror-Stop indicator. Just try to zoom those 2 blue box in it. To see how slim they are. I'm getting the confirmation also from the S4W/Horizon indicator, that a bullish moment has started. It happened where I drew the pink vertical line. So it's a fresh bull move. Right now, I think the move will go a little around 5770 USD. PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Atemak
Bitcoin still bullish: ascending triangle in 4h chartMost think of a 2015 fractal repeat, but I have turned from short-term bear to full bull since the massive MA200 break and weekly candle close above it. I think BTC will go in this push at least to 6500 (lower limit), but as high as 7500 is indeed possible, before any major correction. We see a nice slow ascending triangle in the 4h chart. All indicators point also towards the upside, daily stoch RSI now on oversold again. BTC wants this strong push imho. Let's see :)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PLong
by SebastianofMoon
8
The crude broke the upward resistanceThe price of crude broke and confirmed the upward break of the resistance area between the low area identified by the two EMA 20 and 200 daily periods. Two EMAs have crossed upwards, at about $ 59.20, and the high zone, where finds at 61.60 $ the 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement. From resistance to support  Technically all these resistances have become key supports, if they were violated to the downside, would resume the downtrend that began in October last year. At this moment, however, the trend seems to be at least long in the short term. The next target for crude oil should coincide with the static resistance at 66.10 dollars per barrel. From the current price, to the resistance just mentioned, there is only a minor level that could hinder this uptrend, the secondary resistance placed at $ 63.45. In any case, for now, it seems more likely that it will continue for the 66 $ rather than retrace it back into the 59/58 $ area. Fundamental view  On a fundamental level, the data on inventories continue to not improve, with important quantities still kept in storage because of  the low demand. Production shows no sign of stopping. Despite this, the price of oil continues to rise. If it reaches 66 dollars per barrel, we will evaluate the possibility of entering short and keeping the position in the portfolio for a prolonged period.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BFCMInvest
Bull rally? not yetBased on my analysis: I'm not seeing a bullish rally yet. A correction to 4120 can still be considered. Even a possible correction to 3850 USD which I talked about in my previous idea. If you checked my previous idea, I've told a possible big move is to occur, and it was the case! I've found a pattern I never saw in my indicator. so I suspected something big that occurred, but it was new so I didn't give my direction. However, I think there's still a correction calling below 4130 which is still on "high-demand". And we're on a bearish move that will reach at least 4850 easily. But my feelings are more for a fall to 4730. Right now we have a local bearish movement that can accelerate until reaching that 4730 support level. It can be seen in the S4W/Horizon indicator. Price may bounce over that support band a bit. And if the price move down below this level, I think we will rapidly reach 4120 price. That would ruin many LONG/BUY efforts from people indeed. So right now I'm BEARISH, and placed a SELL until 4750. Time will tell for the rest. PS: Don't take my words for granted. Analyze, re-analyze, then trade at your own risks. PS2: If you like this analyze, please click the LIKE button. FOLLOW me also to get my latest ideas. Thank you.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Atemak
Weekly LTCUSD once again showing the wayIt all depends how we draw the lines, once again. The logarithmic resistance can be drawn such that the current top in LTC, exactly hit the resistance. That's why those lines are not an exact science, but more like a zone. In 2014-15 bearmarket, we also can accordingly draw the line in such a way, that LTC needed 1 1/2 years to break out. If we would draw it similarly for the current bearmarket, then LTC could still need a while until it would break out. Also, the log resistance would align pretty well with the top, the next two local tops, and the last local high at around 50 USD. The market seems to be preparing for the next leg down, and LTC is already showing the way, having hit this resistance nicely. Also, a very strong indicator for LTCUSD always was the weekly stoch RSI. It never likes to stay there for a long time. Historically, there always came huge dumps when LTC was weekly overbought. Even in the bullmarket of 2017, there were some quite impressive dumps on the way up, which brought the weekly stoch RSI down. So it is only a question of time. BTC also being overbought now on weekly, I assume that the drop to the low will start within the coming weeks. Because of the LTC halving in August, and the anticipation, we should get a really strong bounce. From the low, directly to the top of the halving rally, like in 2015. If timed correctly, this will offer an excellent opportunity to make some nice gains.
BITFINEX:LTCUSDShort
by SebastianofMoon
7
If BTC closes today above MA200, bullmarket has startedWell, I might have been wrong after all. But then again I was always stating that there is a 20% chance that BTC surprises us, and does something crazy, like this pump here. Now, what to make of the pump? It entirely depends where the daily will close today. If above MA200/log resistance, at around 4600, then the chances are really good that we start the next bullmarket. Earlier than I expected. In this case, I will have to revisit my longterm projections, since this might have some implications on the timeline and the height of the next peak. Could be sooner now, as early as 2021, but then probably not much above 100k as ATH target. However, if we have a situation like on 15th of October 2018, you remember, the 1000USD pump from, 6500 to 7500. And then only a few weeks later the massive dump from 6500 to 3100. Well, if we close today at 4500 or below, the chances for this candle being an epic bulltrap, are greatly increased. In this case, the bearish target at 1800-2300USD remains intact and all longterm projections as well. Let's see what will happen today, and I will update the longterm projections afterwards if necessary.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
23
Rare crossing : huge move?I've never seen such a pattern in the S4W Horizon indicator. It's really a very tight crossing that is happening. I think it's an ignition point to something big to occur. So based on my analysis, I won't be surprised to see an important bullish move. But I think also there is a correction, unfortunately to occur at 3850 USD. Right now the S4W Horizon indicator is still bullish, let's see if that micro-crossing is talking for a big up move or for something else. Right now, as I said, I don't have a clue, since it's new. but I think it's an important moment that occurs since that crossing is showing up. I can't tell more. Let's watch. Don't take my words for granted, analyze, analyze, then trade at your own risks PS: if you like my analysis, join to get more analysis. I like to be Liked too (like/2/B/Liked/2)
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Atemak
4
The two possible paths I see for LTC in the coming weeksI have to admit that LTC is more bullish than I thought. Apparently everyone is anticipating the halving rally, therefore it takes place even earlier than in 2015. Now, I see two paths, depending on the behavior of BTC in the coming weeks. 1. Green path: BTC doesnt dump soon, instead goes sideways, or even upwards retesting the logarithmic resistance. In this case, I think LTC will reach the top before the BTC dump, then the BTC dump will lead to LTC crashing, and ending the rally. It will then bounce together with BTC and stabilize, leading to a longer accumulation phase. 2. Red path: BTC starts dumping soon In this case, I see the LTC rally abruptly ending, LTC will dump together with BTC. As LTCBTC ratio will drop also, I see the low of LTC then being quite low, possible double bottom, or even lower. But when BTC rebounds, this will lead to an epic rebound in LTC, and it will go from the low, directly to the top of the LTC halving rally. The top here however would not be so high as in the green case. Either way, if one would be to catch the BTC dump and accordingly LTC dump, this could generate a really good trade, because the bounce would be epic either way, and an x3-5 would be possible. Of course now you can say, but what about BTC not dumping any more at all? I still think the likelihood for that scenario is low, but if it were to happen, then LTC would crash at some point simply due to being overbought on all timescales, in LTCUSD and in LTCBTC. The result would be similar to the green curve, albeit maybe the accumulation area might be a bit higher pricewise. So these are my thoughts, I am examining LTC carefully, and seeing what BTC does.
BITFINEX:LTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
3