BTC UPDATE. URGING WEDGE! Rising wedge at the critical point. If 2/1 Gann Fan not going to hold, I'll stay out and wait for the better entry. Target isn't terrible but will be a good test for support.
Rally
BTC SHOULD LAUNCH EVENTUALLY. TWO INVERSE H&S. 1.68 FIB BOUNCEDBTC has two inverse H&S right now with targets ~7300 and 9600. We bounced from the very long-time 1.68 Fibonacci which matched RSI 30 on daily. Dips being bought, and we see a strong bulls reaction on every drop.
If you already have a position, go get a cocktail and enjoy the summer, because it will take some time. I expect the right shoulder in the middle of July, so we have a plenty of time that we can spend on something way better than staring at the charts.
Trade big targets, big timeframes, earn big. Don't waste the time on charts less than 1 Day. 4H only if you are bored and want to see a live show, but don't trade small moves. In the long run, fewer trades make more money.
//This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only//
BTC ... consider the possibilities before you jump in!Nice green candle ... nicest I've seen in a while ... but is that it, bears done, bulls taking over the bar?
I wouldn't be too quick to assume that.
Judging by the current wave shape from 61XX ... we need this wave up to be MUCH stronger to look like an impulse wave up. That rally, although interesting, has not broken the major resistance sitting at 6900. No doubt, shorts were squeezed ... and that helped push the price up ... and there are likely further shorts that will liquidate/close if we go higher ... but does that mean game over for the movement down?
What I'm seeing is very similar conditions compared to when we hit 6736 after we bottomed out at 61XX. Longs to shorts ratio just about back to where they were back then, RSI had about the same action, and although volume on the initial spike up was larger than back on June 14, we have now fallen back to dismal levels.
So what could be happening ... let's look at the possibilities:
(a)see purple wave ... my main idea is that we are forming a leading diagonal (ABCDE wave), and we will bounce down to the bottom of the channel shown ... and after one more attempt to break the bottom of the triangle (shown in the dark red trend line) ... we start a new impulse down to the bottom anticipated by many around the 4k to 5k mark.
(b) see black wave up ... maybe this is an impulse up, but I want to see this wave up go much higher before I'll settle on that one. The wave might not be over, but there's been almost a 200 point pullback since, and BTC needs to get it's act together soon to keep the momentum going. Otherwise, we'll simply get what we got back when the SEC news was released ... a rally that fizzled and died.
(c) see black wave down ... maybe that's it for the bulls, and we don't bounce at the bottom of the channel ... could we be starting the downtrend to the local bottom now? It is a possibility, no doubt. That would mean we've completed a fairly lame ABC correction to 68XX, and trapped a few bulls, before BTC gets taken down.
I am not falling in love with this rally. Technically, a short at the top might have been the best thing to do. The channel I've drawn will be my guide ... breaking out of that will provide further evidence as to where this is going.
Remember, only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not use this info for financial decisions. For educational purposes only!
Low volume, weak rallyOn the weekly chart we are heading for the lowest volume week since February 2017 where the price closed at ~1350. I don't have any price targets for you or anything like that, but I just wanted to point out the apparent weakness of the current "rally".
Please do your own analysis to find entry/exits. Have a wonderful weekend!
NANO for a 40% ProfitDear Traders,
I know NANO has been compromised recently and that make it dump about -54%.
Now people are starting to buy here at 1.618 fibonacci support.
MACD Cross Positively and RSI is low.
We bounced here some days before so I think we have probabilities to bounce at these levels again creating a double bottom.
Also I think we can rebounce here after creating a tweezers bottom.
Happy trading everybody!
TP: 7120 (+40%)
SL: 4860 (-4.31%)
Stop loss is set under past lower lows.
BTC trading plan for the coming weeksSo, the way I see it, BTC is ranging further in this pretty long triangle that has been validated the last months.
A wedge within a wedge is forming, and daily stoch RSI suggests that upside momentum is more probably than downwards momentum. I think that we'll see a small rally towards 9000ish, then further bounces between
the resistance and support of this very long triangle. Then it will either break to the upside or to the downside and define the longer term trend for the coming months.
A push towards 11700 would be a strong signal, however, even then a bearmarket could play out. If it does not manage to push through 11700, it will probably continue to fall further, making new lows. A push through 11700 is necessary to have any chances
for a big rally this year.
If the triangle breaks to the downside, a bearmarket is basically inescapable.
One should not hope for one or the other scenario, but be prepared for both possibilities. So actually the smileys should smile in both cases XD.
Shorting and having fiat on the sidelines if it breaks to the downside, and going long and buying if it breaks to the upside. Just see what happens and act accordingly. That's at least what I do. Cheers!
P.S: I am shortterm long, and longterm neutral.
EURUSD Counter-Rally to Upper Parallel Before next DeclineineEURUSD 30th May
EUR has finally reached the month-long downside target at
1.1558 just in time for the end of the May. It actually
exceeded the target by 45 pips before reversing higher and
creating the first strong green candles of buying intent the
market has seen for months now. But the counter rally is
running out of momentum now whilst DXY holds above 94.
Initial resistance for EUR lies here at the 1.1676 line and
extends to the line above at 1.1731. This range, bounded by
the two lines, is likely to prove insurmountable in the very
near term - it will need DXY itself to break below 94 to break
the upper parallel here - in which case the bears will retreat
further here too and it should then rally 90 or so pips higher
still to 1.1821 on more bear closing before falling away again.
That looks to be best case scenario for EUR from here though.
(At the same time DXY should then fall to test the 93.36-93.12
range and then bounce higher again.)
So long as 94 holds up on DXY the Euro is likely to remain
trapped within the medium term downtrend of April/May and
likely to fall away from the upper parallel once more when
challenged.
But this time around the next sell off from the upper parallel
of the larger impulse wave has a reasonable chance of
creating a double bottom around the 1.1558-1.1540 range
when it does fall away again - so any fresh shorts taken out
around current levels need closing down again here. Any
subsequent fall below 1.1535 will then be needed to trigger
fresh shorts from here back to the 1.1318-1.1287 range.
Bitcoin! It's Time for U-turn!After bears have taken the place for the last month it's a good time for a bounce back to 10000 and 11000.
The bottom support is so strong, that anytime it can bounce back to 7700 and up.
Good luck everyone!
DAX: When too many people expect a crash...First of all, I am not a fan of the current stock market situation, and I agree that a larger correction is long overdue.
However, if I analyse the longterm chart of DAX, I see that the very long streak from 1982 to 1996 is similar in its fractal similarity to the streak from 2010 till now.
This is just a pure chart fractal analysis, and noting that long term rising wedges tend to be broken to the upside.
So, could it actually be that instead of a much needed longer correction, this crazy thing will climb even more? I hope not, but according to the charts it could very well be.
However, I am also prepared for a brutal correction, just in case.
EURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally HereEURUSD Trying For Break-Out Counter-Rally now
Using DXY as the confirming signal (please see DXY updates)
we've been short EURUSD for some time now, looking for a
test of 94.20 on DXY as the likely medium term top for Dollar
strength across the pairs. That came yesterday (too busy
shorting Bitcoin to notice, sorry for that).
But EUR didn't quite make it to the next downside target at
1.1665 here, bouncing away 11 pips higher than really
expected, though it did bounce precisely off the lower
parallel of the little pattern EUR is now trapped within.
Yesterday was mostly bear closing by look of the chart. Today
it's more bull buying with a small impulse candle arriving as
London opened after an aimless overnight session in far East.
It can rally to 1.1756 and then will probably need impetus and
follow through from New York to push any higher still.
Only once it can get above here should it push back up to the
1.1823 level, presnting a potential long opportunity if we see
it develop later. But until we see that evidence present itself
EUR is becoming vulnerable to another sell off, though this
time it should only come back to the 1.1721 line to begin with
and will need US selling to drive it lower still towards the
1.1679-1.1665 range.
With the Dollar expected to enter an extended period of
consolidation under 94.2 on DXY it's no longer appropriate to
be looking for big EUR weakness in the nearterm.
However, looking a little further out in time, DXY is expected
to rally a further 1% or so from 94.2 to 95.15 and EUR to fall
back to 1.1558 eventually before any real change in overall
trend is likely on this pair.
This update was posted shortly after the DXY companion forecast this morning. It never loaded correctly. Very annoying. Anyway, what was expected above is happening pretty much as it should so far - EUR is about to break higher as DXY unravels under the dynamic from the highs a while longer.
BTC large megacycles on monthly timeframeThis is just a quick chart to show that the monthly chart shows an interesting pattern in the stochastic RSI.
It is osciallting with a period of 4 years, what a surprise :) the halvings are also every 4 years, could there be any connection? Hmmm..... XD
If the last cycle repeats, I think we might be headed towards lows in 2019, an 87% correction as in 2014-2015 would yield a lowest low of 2600 USD, with a stable floor in 2019 around 4k.
End of 2019, the halving 2020 will already be propagated and I suspect therefore that BTC will start rising again in late 2019, same as it did in late 2015.
Target for the next megacycle is at least 100k per BTC, in 2021-2022.
Bullish ReversalI believe that BTC will reverse when it reaches the $6500 mark. I believe this will happen around May 29 and when the US GDP is released it will cause the reversal.
EURUSD: Lower Stop On Any Shorts/Use DXY as Signal ConfirmationEURUSD Update
After rallying from the downside target off the 1.1721 line
EUR has made it to the near term upside target centred
around the 1.1821 line and been met with a barrage of
persistant selling from there over the last 6 hours creating a
series of rejection spikes above the line.
If you shorted from here again lower the stop to 1.1787.
It's been sold off in Europe all day - we need to see US follow
through to know that downside pressure is still strong from
here.
Without it there's an increasing chance that it will push higher
again from here before coming off again later - the next key
area on the upside lies at 1.1831-1.1838 - a break above here
needed to signal any further near term strength to 1.1915.
The overall picture is still bearish for EUR but with DXY
consolidating off 94 and with a little more unwinding there
still likely it means that this this whipsaw back higher for a
while yet before the downtrend resumes again
BTC: One can still hope and dreamThis is a quick fractal analysis on the first 2013 bubble.
It is not to show that I believe that we'll get another rally this year, it could happen, however, I am not sure if this will be a repeat of 2013 or a repeat of the 2014-2015 bearmarket.
This is just to show what it will take to get another rally. It can be clearly seen that 130 USD was a very important key level in 2013. Once it was surpassed, the next rally unfolded with overwhelming force.
I think that this year will be similar. Our line is at 11500-12000. If we manage to break above 12000, I think we might have a good chance for a rally. If it doesn't manage to get above, I see a repeat of 2014-2015 likely.
One thing is certain, BTC will soon have to decide: Rally time or bear-time? It won't be too long now until we'll know :) One should be prepared either way. Never hope for anything with bitcoin, because it can be brutal if you do
and the opposite of what you wish for comes to pass.
VERY IMPORTANT! How to see if a rally is Real or Fake!So many people blame the unpredictable price moves on the whales. (As if the whales aren't investors, too). In lack of better words these people are blaming the unknown for their failure to understand the market's environment.
Not to mention spending hours or days over-analyzing a fake rally that is 100% going to deflate
So, Dogecoin Shill, what do I do to become a super advanced trading master like you!?
Google trends. Go to trends.google.com, type in bitcoin. The bitcoin chart on google trends looks identical to the 1 year chart of bitcoin. As bitcoin's popularity increases, new money comes in and drives up the price. The charts have had one noticeable inconsistency in the last year, which is this recent rally. Bitcoin's price went up 50%, but the popularity stagnated and actually decreased a bit.
I took short position at $9k, and tried to post something here at the time but couldn't do it (I'm still figuring out this website) , and I apologize to my followers for that. If you were following me before, I predicted this recent rally in early April when i went long. Leave a like and follow, I do not post on here unless I am extremely confident in my predictions, and if I've already taken the buy or sell position.
Peace!
-Doge
EOS ... the plan is coming togetherDon't you love it when a plan comes together.
As predicted, EOS was pushed out of that wedge by BTC ... and we had to be patient but it's looking nice right now!
Volume is my main concern .... it is pathetically low for BTC, and that of EOS.
But look at the resistance levels folks ... and look at what happens above $15.
I doubt BTC will be stable long enough for EOS to rally up to these levels, unless trader get antsy and want to get in on EOS
before mainnet launch in less than two weeks. We would need a good day or two, where everyone climbs in.
It's not impossible ... but it's difficult to tell you how high this can go folks.
Keep your eyes on it, don't get greedy ... take partial profits when it makes sense.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome.
Do not make investment decisions with this information. For educational purposes only.
If you wish to make a donation, based on profit you made on my ideas ... it would be greatly appreciated.
BTC address 14i2Xit5pH7Sz5TMegDn8vDT6VcoN85f42
ETH address
0x8a62eE1B2628297EA51aD08dadFFCed3F73e6eed
LTC address
LXoyzmL85HvED1LyHkJtGygUPbBUZd
ETH, big move up??Well, those of you who got into ETH down below should be happy.
But there might be more, as long as BTC doesn't mess this up (and I have a feeling it will)...
There are some nice jumps to be made with ETH between heavy resistance.
Alts are fairly coupled with BTC and if bitcoin gives them that little push they need to get over resistance, then we have situations like ETH today.
It looks like we are in wave 5 of an impulse right now. I look at a few clues, the first being the length of wave 3 relative to wave 1. For an ABC correction, I typically look for wave 1 and 3 being similarish in size. Clearly wave 3 is much longer than wave 1, so it could very well be an impulse, and we have 1 more leg to go. Wave 5's are a pain to predict ... inducing some mega confusion. The length is also unpredictable, if wave 3 is longer than wave 1, which is the case here.
But I do see some strong resistance at 760. So I'm looking for another 30 points up from the current 730 range.
Assuming that's the end of wave 5, it will then correct ... and formation of the right shoulder of an IH&S is totally possible.
That makes it really interesting because the head is 120 points ... would $880 for ETH be possible in the next few days ... yes, BUT only if BTC behaves ... and I don't think the odds are in our favor ... a BTC short from $9k is a high possibility.
Anyhow, something to keep an eye on people, this could be the story over the next few days, especially given the exposure ETH gets on Wednesday this week at Consensus.
Remember only a fool relies on one potential outcome!
Do not make financial decisions based on this information. For educational purposes only.
Bitcoin looking oversoldChecking the four hour chart on Bitfinex for Bitcoin, the market looks very oversold.
Early this morning May 12th, eastern time zone in United States, BTC broke below 20 on the RSI four hour chart. This is only the third time in the past year this has happened.
The first time RSI was below 20 was 9/14. The market proceeded to drop another 7% in the following 12 hours after this RSI reading but then went on a tear from 2980 to 7900 in less than two months. Bullish divergence was evident during this first dip below 20 for the RSI.
The second time this happened in the past year was 1/17 and the market went lower in the next four hour interval by about 4% then went on a three day ripper rallying 41% off the lows.
I would take this information coupled with a retracement to the exact 50% Fibonacci level of the recent move from 6425 to 9990 as a very bullish sign. Also take into account the Consensus 2018 blockchain technology summit set to kick off on Monday the 14th.
This confluence of information leads me to believe the crypto market is about to become elevated.
The next resistance levels in BTC I am looking for are 8629, 8972 (Fibonacci level of entire downward move from 19891 to 6000), 9149, 10000 (should break that next time testing it in my opinion), and beyond that 11300, 12950, 14620, 16660 and then the all time high of 19990.
Support levels would be 7770, 7170, 6600, 6000, 5400, 4900, 4200, 3600 and 3000.
KISS the DOWNTREND goodbye. We are finishing DISBELIEF NOW.www.google.nl
Oh the market psychogology chart .. I love you so much. Please take a look at 'This is a suckers rally' and the ''Disbelief' phase.
Prepare for impact this is going to bounce hard.
The daily Stoch RSI on the 1 Day is almost reset and at the same level before the 6.4k rally started.
Don't chicken out now and enjoy the ride.
The Road to Ultra All time High and Beyond - 30K BTC
Hi everyone,
Today a very speculative analysis from me. What could the road to ultra all-timehigh look like?
I tried to research our route and I see a strong resemblance in 2017's fractal - just alot bigger.
We have an ADAM X EVE double bottom match + cup and handle formation. The cup and handle formation (if played out further) can launch to extreme height if completed.
Fractals happen again, if not partially. So... Will we do exactly the same? Probaly not. But there is a good chance that this could be the rough route
Bubbles move in exponential speed - This means things go slow and then faster and even MORE faster in a shorter duration of time. EXTREME
Hopefully we can look back at this post seeing if it worked out or completely failed. Well.. Thats the fun of it it.
en.wikipedia.org (If you want to know more about exponential rates).
Please remmember that this is just an scenario. Never put fate in a single trader. Do your own research.
Humans make mistakes!
Greetings,
Vincent
EURUSD Target achieved, counter-rally followed by more weakness EURUSD
After another rally back to the upper parallel precisely EUR has fallen to the target at 1.1915 after an intra-day low at 1.1910.
It should now attempt a feeble rally back to 1.1946 and the upper parallel at best before it falls away again. And unless it can find a double bottom at 1.1910 when it next comes off the likelihood remains that it will decline further still over the more medium term in stages to 1.1880 then 1.1815 and finally to 1.1721
