The Road to Ultra All time High and Beyond - 30K BTC
Hi everyone,
Today a very speculative analysis from me. What could the road to ultra all-timehigh look like?
I tried to research our route and I see a strong resemblance in 2017's fractal - just alot bigger.
We have an ADAM X EVE double bottom match + cup and handle formation. The cup and handle formation (if played out further) can launch to extreme height if completed.
Fractals happen again, if not partially. So... Will we do exactly the same? Probaly not. But there is a good chance that this could be the rough route
Bubbles move in exponential speed - This means things go slow and then faster and even MORE faster in a shorter duration of time. EXTREME
Hopefully we can look back at this post seeing if it worked out or completely failed. Well.. Thats the fun of it it.
en.wikipedia.org (If you want to know more about exponential rates).
Please remmember that this is just an scenario. Never put fate in a single trader. Do your own research.
Humans make mistakes!
Greetings,
Vincent
Rally
EURUSD Target achieved, counter-rally followed by more weakness EURUSD
After another rally back to the upper parallel precisely EUR has fallen to the target at 1.1915 after an intra-day low at 1.1910.
It should now attempt a feeble rally back to 1.1946 and the upper parallel at best before it falls away again. And unless it can find a double bottom at 1.1910 when it next comes off the likelihood remains that it will decline further still over the more medium term in stages to 1.1880 then 1.1815 and finally to 1.1721
EURUSD Another Counter-Rally prior to decline to 1.1915 TargetEURUSD: Another Counter-Rally prior to decline to 1.1915 Target
Having made the counter-rally back to the upper parallel EUR has continued its expected down-trend. It's now touching the next support line at 1.2027 and likley to make another small counter rally to 1.2067 and at highest to 1.2094 before it falls away again to the 1.1915 downside target towards mid May.
BITCOIN BULLS ABOUT TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN?Looking at the BIG PICTURE we have been making slow and steady growth. While i still do believe we may still go down under 6k eventually, the slow growth indicates we won't be experiencing any sudden falls anytime soon. If BTC manages to go below 9200, it is unlikely to go below 9000 and even less likely to go under 8700. Similar sideways action in the past has seemed to be followed by significant rallies. Me thinks 90% chance we go up from here, or possibly sideways for several days, but a drastic drop would definitely be out of characteristic for the current upward wave formation. This looks to be a shakeout of weak hands before a big rally. I'm HODLING tight for now. Pls thumbs up if you find my insight useful. Thanks! Props to great advice from botje11 but I believe 9200 will hold! I highly recommend following this trader!
(disclaimer - not financial advice)
AUDUSD Sell Idea W1 - Price broke below the uptrend line.
H4 - We may now look to sell every rally, this should technically be a great opportunity for us.
Invalidation - If this turns out to be a false break and if the price moves higher and holds above the weekly uptrend line, then this setup is invalidated.
Comparing BTC with the 2013 and 2014 cyclesI keep seeing the 2014 bear fractal charts everywhere. There seems to be a trend going on or something. However, many people forget that before 2014, there was another rally, in early 2013.
Both rallies ended in a large correction, with a subsequent logarithmic downtrend line.
In both cases the trendline was broken. In 2014 it was a failed breakout, meaning that after breaking through the log res, it failed to go above the previous fibonacci resistance (mostly the 0.5 and 0.38 fib levels from the entire rise of the bull move).
It then continued to decline.
In 2013 however, we see a successful breakout from the downtrend line, leading to the second rally of 2013.
The question is now: Which path will BTC take now?
I think that BTC will continue to climb to the 0.38 fibo level, around 11500. Then, the usual oscillations, and afterwards it shall be decided if BTC does another rally like in 2013, or fails and continues to decline like in 2014.
People who pretend to know are liars, no one knows what will happen. However, one can position himself or herself accordingly after we hit 11500.
I will be prepared for both scenarios. Luckily, after the first pumps or dumps, it should be clear which direction BTC will take :)
I smell a BULL TRAP.I felt uncomfortable when the candles move up and down in square wave in matter of minutes on H1 chart as if nobody is trading it.
This movement shouldn't appear in a bullish market.
Also, the volume for each daily candles are too low compare to panic selling during 2018-03-06 - 2018-03-17 and 2018-03-25 - 2018-04-01.
The volume for each candle should be around 60K to 100K, but there's only 20K - 40K.
The rally is up too much, too fast, too easy.
I compare a slope for this rally among other uptrends.
The closest one that I can find was during 2017-08-03 to 2017-08-19.
They have higher volume than the false rally.
I smell a BULL TRAP. A big one.
I think it will land around 7500 back to the old long term support.
With the red line resistance become support, we will have 2 fold up trend, and the real battle will begin.
For those who buy the dips before 12th April (the big bounce). You are still safe (almost).
Just don't panic sell it and cause price to go lower :wink :wink.
For now, leave it alone don't do anything irrational.
Always trade with the trend, not counter it.
If you're still on the rally. Put your stop loss ready. You can ride it for a while, but be cautious.
Siacoin Roadmap for 2018 and Long Term PerspectiveSiacoin is a coin for a decentralized cloud storage and has been around since 2016. It can not be said that its a new coin, but one of the veterans in the cryptocurrency market.
At the same time the price of Siacoin remains very cheap and currently, SC/BTC is traded at 130 satoshis! Obviously not many "veterans" cost that cheap and perhaps this could be a very interesting investment opportunity in 2018.
On the Siacoin roadmap for 2018 it states:
"Our goal: Sia becomes production-ready for cold storage, begins to be used by companies, and introduces file sharing."
If everything goes according to the Siacoin plan, this could trigger a strong rally in price, as not only people but potentially large companies will use Siacoin services for the cloud storage.
Looking at the chart. Siacoin continues to reject the uptrend trendline and currently found the support at 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level. While the support is holding the next wave up could result in a rally towards the 430 satoshis resistance. But/when/if it will be broken, the upside potential could be enormous.
BITCOIN BREAKOUT ATTEMPT ''THE BATTLE OF BULLWATER BAY'' Hello everyone,
First of all I hope everyone of you is doing well. If you have been a follower of my channel you know that on my previous analysis 'Bitcoin and the attack on downtrend' we hit all targets! And ofcourse the call of the legendary shorting squeeze and the bitcoin bottom call!
It is now time for the next chapter: Prepare for the season finale! S03E010BattleOfBullwaterBay.mkv!
I think Bitcoin is setting up for a breakout attempt.There are some requirements though!
In my previous analysis I have shown you that I recognized our fractal structure: we are doing a classic pump - pullback wave fractal structure. For those who did not follow my previous analysis.
A recap for you:
These kind of wave structures happen in a bulltrend and bear trend . The psychology behind these structures is like this:
Bullish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then..profit takers wait for the price to 'pull back' until it is interesting enough to buy back again. If there are enough buyers interested. It will pump higher!
Bearish: We pump hard. Profit is taken at the top. Then.. the price drops.. A small bounce occurs.. shorters take their chance and it is then further shorted down.
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bullish trend. Notice how every pullback is being bought :
Here is a pump - pullback wave structure in a bearish trend. Notice how it gets shorted
Now back to the main chart . I think that we are out almost out of steam and are almost ready to start our main pullback judging by our RSI.
If you take a look at my RSI. I pointed with arrows how I think this will play out. We will rise up just a little bit and get rejected by the RSI resistance. We will then begin our descend from the 83xx 84xx range.
Now the question for many here on tradingview is..
What are we? Bullish or Bearish ?
Okay im making this simple for you:
If we are bullish . We will get picked up at 76xx - 78xx range and move up
If we are bearish . We will get shorted at 76xx - 78xx and move down
I personally think we are bullish . We had a large correction of the 'december crowd' exiting the market.
+ Alot of the shorters were wiped out during the short squeeze. I think we won't have enough sellers to short it down. But ofcourse this is my personal opinion and I can be wrong!
If we can hold de 76xx to 78xx range we LAUNCH the assault on the downtrend
Ultimately fate will decide. Will there be enough buyers? We are going to find out soon!
Whatever it will be.. Bears... Fate had us met as foes. But this coin will make us brothers!
Please remmember that this analysis is a scenario. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
Always consider both BULLISH and BEARISH scenarios. Humans make mistakes!
What is your take on this? Do you think BITCOIN is bullish or BEARISH?
Let me know in the comment section below!
Goodluck to both bears and bull!
Have a great day!
As a last message:
I see alot of people comparing 2014 to 2018. It seems logical but let me tell you something:
If you click on my tradingview page. Check one of my first fractal predictions here on tradingview. ''Fractal to 11.8k updated'' I was using fractal as my only GUIDE and it failed The thing is with fractals guys.. We follow them partially. Fractal can break and evolve into a new path. You can use them as an indicator. But you should always consider them with other indicators. Fractals can serve as a guide, not as a fact. Please remmember that.. The market conditions in 2014 were completely different. Bitcoin was associated with buying drugs.. are major exchange was hacked.. People didn't know what blockchain could do..
Right now there is hype, exuberance and interested. I think that this will fuel the next run!
Bitcoin! Reincarnate and refresh the rally!Hello, so far everything went as predicted earlier
I-The-bottom-is-here-Correction-coming-up/
The only difference with the proposed way is that the mid u-turn was taken about 500 usd lower, and it touched the bottom again.
Now, if you see, the next goal is 9000, not 9500.
And as before, BTC is outperforming the expectation in time for regains, 12% in 30 minutes, so we should get back to 9000 pretty soon.
April 15 and later is the very promising day for a rally, as investors are done with annual fiat scrutiny and are ready to play hard.
Stay tuned for more easy predictions on further Bitcoin crazy moves, without hard TA terms from us.
Peace.
WE PLAY KING OF THE HILL! ENTER THE ACCUMULATION ZONE!(BITCOIN) Hello everyone,
A market moves only UP or DOWN right? NOT REALLY.
Did you skip the accumulation phase? What? Accumulation? YES! Lets move ''SIDEWAYS'' . What SIDEWAYS?! That's boring! No! It would actually be GOOD:
An accumulation phase is a sideways channel which happens AFTER a downtrend. The price no longer bleeds down and doesn't breakout either. This is a transitional phase to a bull market. Do not think we suddenly go moon after a downtrend.
Here is a link for your reference. Put this up next to my chart ok? -- d.stockcharts.com
- I think there is a really good chance that we have entered an accumulation phase right now.
The bottom would have been 6400. (SPRING) After that the market tried to destroy 6500 again. But it failed! Yes that's RIGHT! It could not do it!
- Also our fractal patterns have changed and no longer follow the shapes that we made in the wedge. There structure is different now.
- If you visit the google trends page, we have flattened out. This means the market is back in the STRONG HANDS! --- trends.google.com --
- This week we will play a game of KING of the HILL. The bulls need to keep the level of 6500 safe. If they can we WIN!
Counter facts:
- In order to invalidate the accumulation phase, we should lose 6500 to the bears. If they take that back we lose.
Cup and Handle on POA networkPOA network is one of the coins I am post passionate about. Also, I believe will do really well during this next altcoin rally. POA token is attractive to investors because they are a platform token with a brand new consensus mechanism, Proof of Authority. Proof of Authority, or POA puts identity up at stake instead of holdings. since everybody has only one identity, POA is very decentralized when it comes to their validators. Since other platform tokens with old consensus methods are evaluated in the billions, I believe there is huge potential for POA.
Yesterdays volume was the most since the coin ICO. Since the coin went to the upside, I think this is a big indication of a rally. Also, POA is holding its short term gains very well, which shows investors are not eager to sell anytime soon. A cup has formed after yesterdays rally and i believe a handle too.
The Project idea, the Volume, and the teacup pattern all indicate signs of a rally soon. I am hodling POA token for the altcoin rally, lets see where this ride takes us!
BTC/USD - Rally Base Rally - What's Next?I do believe we are going to see some more upside here over the next week or so, but believe we are going to see a slight pull back and then higher price action. The red and blue areas indicate the path of BTC, I believe will play out.
Price action painted a sharp move up and out (RALLY) of a weekly/daily demand zone. Then ranged (BASE) for about a day just under a the weekly .786. Moving sharply from this zone to form a small base. I believe price action will rally again to 9150-9300 area, then pull back to previous smaller base or back to the weekly .786 before resuming a stronger run up.
Let me know your thoughts.
USDCAD Trade Update1 Lot Profit taken off of USDCAD LONG from March 12th @ 1.28385 and closed @ 1.30944 for a +255.9 pip gain. Not a bad haul. Still in with 1 LOT and monitoring price action, which has hit resistance at 1.31 mark corresponding with the 61.8% retracement off of the May 2017 high. Price did breach the most recent Weekly Supply area and I'll be watching how it performs if/when it re-enters here. Trailing stop 50 pips from price. RSI, MACD, and DMI are all printing divergence. I'm anticipating a brief retracement followed by a last Bull push taking out stop order above 1.31, followed by a legitimate correction.
Breakout in the next 12/24 HoursI seems that NANO is going to do a big rally after the breakout , To the MOON!!
my sell-points are:
1-0.022
2-0.023
3-0.245
BTCUSD Buy OportunitiesWith the increase of 6% today with no drop in the SPX the BTCUSD market indicates that the market still has a bullish sentiment throwards bitcoin and with spx at a posttential resistance point a rally in BTCUSD can be expected. However if DXY continues to rise BTCUSD could drop but with this bullish sentiment it's likely to continue to rally