GOLDEN CHRISTMAS & TRUMP'S INAUGURATIONThis is my forecast for the next month for Gold
Shorting the $1170-88 area, looking to TP at around $1065, then LONG from there! Let's see how this trade will manifest!
Rally
SPY - Contrarian Bullish Outlook - PCRs - ExtendedHoursFlag or Pennant ? Both would be bullish ... Play with time-frame, it seems to match a pennant on most...
However it may be neither, although there are many within it. That tends to serve as a confirmation!
The SPY is an index based ETF for the S&P 500...
USDJPY (S) 2013.12.02Entry on bear rally @ 15min chart which is seeming to show reversal on 1 hr chart. Half position entry, 1:2 r/r. 2nd entry after 1 x ATR.
LSKBTC future chartSlow rally up to around 80-90k sat, then pumping 117% from that position to 170-180k, then falling back down to 80-90k for it's avg long term price.
That's 600% at the top of the pump from price value right now, and an average corrected price long term of 80-90k.
US2000: Tremendous 15 Consecutive Day Rally I have not been able to find any conclusive data regarding whether or not this rally has been all time record for the Russell 2000 Index. Investor confidence has soared to all time highs via 3 week rally. Although I am glad to see this rise occur, I do not seem to understand the logical or fundamental justification for it. How much longer can the Stock Market ignore the carnage in the Bond Market? Because interest rates have been so low for so long, I believe that an increase in rates at this time, a time when the market has been relatively stagnant for over a couple years, will have a strong deflationary effect on the Stock Market. This December, when the Federal Reserve Hikes interest rates, we will see whether this rally has been a genuine reflection of the supposed US recovery, or if it has simply been an impulsive pump after the election of Donald Trump. Please do not hesitate to leave your thoughts.
EURUSD short as 127 extensionafter checking for the cypher pattern was invalid
will take this extension trade as per the targets showing
the pattern was invalid as only the wig touched the 127 extension
closed the trade now still profitable however
started a selling position as per the chart showing
happy pips hunting everyone
Dollar index (DXY) 2016-2017 Analysis: Rally to continue post elTalking Points:
DXY Technical Strategy: Keeping bullish outlook
Elliottwave Count: Nested impulsive count
Analysis
DXY (Dollar Index) is trading impulsive in post election session and able to break channel resistance. We were calling reversal from 19-Aug-2016 and looking for 100 levels during August month. Current count is suggesting more upside towards 103 and above. However, we are expecting small set back of this impulsive rally. Index is testing horizontal resistance near 101.50 area. Break of this level will have 103.15 zone.
Action
As We are expecting small set back to re-test channel support, we are looking to re-initiate our long position on dollar basket, i.e. we are looking to sell EUR/USD (Euro / US dollar), NZD/USD (New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar), Crude Oil, etc.
-- By @HoagTrading (Hoagtrading.com)
AUDNZD - Long-Term PerspectiveSometimes you have to put things into perspective.
I'm not saying AUDNZD can't go up anymore.
Look at the breakout in March.
Or even look at the dotted line I've drawn.
It can still go higher.
I am saying though that taking distance for a moment and looking at it from far away can never hurt.
I'm posting my observations here to document my progress.
Correction or sideways?Market taking a breather after the recent rally. I would think that the market is taking a break from the rally for now. Corrective levels below are the 7 day MA at 164ish, 20 day MA at 158 and 100 day MA along with the lower line of the upsloping trend channel.
Option vol went out on the move, but commercials seems to be selling as physical prices in Brazil are as high as ever and provide good selling opportunities for commercials.
IMHO, downside 1x2 calendar spreads or short call spreads are options.
USDJPY Elliott Wave Rally: Triangle BreakoutHey traders! Looks like we have a triangle complete and ready to rally on the 30m TF. Here is a set up that capitalizes on the bounce off of wave-E of the expanding triangle. This one should be moved to B/E quickly as the rally should be a quick impulse. SL can be placed below root of wave-i on the lower TF. More updates to come, stay tuned
Possibility of going long with the SLVif the stock breaks that bearish flag pattern, its could possibly go up. It bounced on the 200MA easily and that is a strong signal. We saw it multiple times in the past.
What I'm waiting fot :
- 10 and 20 MA crossover
- for the stock to break that bearish flag pattern
SPY to rally based on VIX/SPYThe ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit)
Today VIX/SPY broke a support.
SPX has not yet mimicked this move
If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.
GBPUSD Wave-X Complete with Bat: Ready to RallyHey traders! Looks like the minor degree Wave-X is complete on GBPUSD. In addition to the wave count, a bullish bat is complete and has shown some pin support. I want to buy here with a tight stop below the root of potential wave-1. If SL is hit, this is not the first wave of the rally and I don't want to be in the trade any longer. Otherwise, we have huge profit targets above including missed pivots and weekend gap level. Happy trading!
AUDUSD Short: Looking for a Bargain Against InvalidationThe AUDUSD rally is not over yet. We know this because highs have been breached and a triple combination correction has revealed itself. However, it is nearing its final rally up against the EW invalidation level. I would love to short form here with a high R/R and a big target. Updates to come as the tide rolls!
Usd/Cad: 22nd September 2016After the release of news yesterday we seen the U.S Dollar move lower surrounding speculation and uncertainty.
I have broken down this pair looking at it long term and we have two scenarios
1. A possible rising wedge, a break of support "1.2900" and we will have a clear bearish continuation with sellers looking to break "1.2500" and then attack "1.2000"
2. We could potentially see a rise in the U.S economy by the end of the year coming into 2017 despite certain figures being shown. We can see that the "1.2900" mark was previous resistance and is now being tested as new support.
From a long term analytical perspective i have added a chart pattern commonly know as "Cup & Handle" if the dollar does find strength it should be within a couple days we will see price retest its near term highs, with a break aiming for the "1.4000" area and possibly higher
BULLISH RALLY ABOUT TO START IN IBEX35A bullish rally is about to start on the spanish index. The famous ibex35 is in its way of a major wave III with a very clear continuing diagonal triangle at wave II.
Bullish positions till arount 9000-9150 and then get ready for the wave IV to come, probably on a sharp rally due to elliots wave alternation rule.
Maybe we there is a fair chance to be involved in an extended wave III so we coud potentially reach 10000-10500 pretty soon.
USDJPY Long: Don't Miss The Rally!USDJPY has completed a triangle pattern in a potential reversal zone at the end of a corrective wave count. If you missed the first small rally, now is a great time to look for entries. This is an odd hour to take trades, so we may see some interesting price action here. Keep an eye out for bullish impulses to get long behind.
Copper Buy Setup!!Copper is giving a Buying Opportunity near the 61.8% retracement of the last rally and correction has reached the bottom of the trend channel within which Copper has been correction. Last 4 hour and 1 hour Candlestick pattern shows bullish pattern with divergence in 1hr chart. Its a nice risk reward trade if it does reverse and go up from here.. Targets and Stoploss levels are on the chart.
Happy Trading!!
Coffee - Next upside targets seen at 162.95 and 178.95The strong rally of support at 134.90 is very encouraging for the impulsive count from 111.05. The next upside targets to look for is seen at 162.95 and 178.95, but the long term target remains at 233.80 as a huge flat wave is unfolding.
Only from 233.80 is the next strong decline in wave expected to take over for a long term decline to below 100.95.
Copper - A strong impulsive rally towards 2.64 is expected My preferred count shows that copper saw an important low in mid-January at 1.9355 and a strong rally higher towards 2.6410 now should be expected.
From the 1.9355 low a nice five wave rally was seen to 2.3235 as wave (i) and wave (ii) was clearly a three wave zig-zag correction that completed at 2.0130.
Wave (iii) started to move higher from 2.0130 in a pretty messy fashion to 2.2775, which I think was and expanded leading diagonal as wave i and was followed by an almost equally messy wave ii down to 2.1330. It now looks as wave ii completed at 2.1330 and wave iii of (iii) higher is ready to develop.
The first strong indication, this is the case, will be a break above the minor channel resistance-line near 2.1945 for a rally higher to 2.2775 on the way higher to 2.38 and 2.64.
Corn - Bottom seen at 312.00On August 4 - 2016 I said, that we either had seen a bottom at 319.40 or needed one more decline closer to 310.00.
With a low seen at 312.00 followed by a rally above minor resistance at 328.60 the low is in place for a long term rally to 440.40 and above here confirms the rally to 519.00.
EU Uptrend Until Mid WeekI believe that the EU pair will be rising for the week. There was consolidation between the 1.10707 support and 1.11051 resistance points. The pair has since broken the 1.11051 resistance point which has now become support. A new found level of support has been confirmed by the EU pair tapping the 1.11356 point more than 3 times. I expect some retracement to the trend line but I ultimately believe that this trend is a bullish trend for the week.
GBPCAD Hitting lowest low...GBPCAD Hitting long term lowest structure.
Very likely to see the market rally up to the nearest fibonacci level with a possibility for a second target around the nearest resistance level.
