Guesstimating the top of this rallySo, the kingly discipline in bitcoin, aside from estimating WHEN a rally might start, is of course predicting the top of the rally.
I should add that I think it is utterly improbably to predict anything at all with a high certainty in bitcoin, since bitcoin is so young and we don't have enough data. But I'll try anyway :)
I looked at the previous rallies and estimated when they started. Even telling when a rally starts is pretty difficult. Does it start with the first green candle? Or with the first big green candle? Or when the Stoch RSI reaches 80? 90? 100?
I looked at the timeframes when the Stoch RSI hit 100. Because when it did, it stayed like this until the top was reached. The first time on this chart in 2012, staying at 100 for 2 months and 1 week. Again so in April 2013. In november 2013, much shorter, only for a month.
I think since we already ar at 100 Stoch RSI since the end of november, and the rally wasn't exactly too impressive yet, this will be a longer one, 2 months and 1 week.
This would put the top in the timeframe of 7th of february.
This would also be in line with the RSI which is still in the 80s, and probably will hit the high 90s in early february.
As for how high it will go, I can only guess that since this rally is still pretty moderate from the price-increase perspective, it resembles the 2012 rally the most. This would put the top in the 2k price range, with a maximum of 2200.
But since this is bitcoin, it might of course overshoot to 3000, or "only" hit 1500. But the likeliest target is around 2k I'd say.
After that it will do the bitcoin dance we all love, crashing down to 1000 again, and bouncing around until the start of the last rally of this bull cycle. I gues this will happen in late 2017 with a top of this bitcoin historical 3rd wave in the 8k - 10k territory.
I hope this helps, enjoy the ride and be prepared for everything! :)
