Shifter Rally Reuse @Most Liquid RangeOKX:BANDUSDT
When price close to 2, the setup will be ready.
Easy to use, check for bearish price action, and utilize the shifter rally with Bearish Gartley Setup.
Alarm set.
May the force be with you!
Rally
Rally to .618 fib ($48,500 by July) then -72% before new ATH'sHi there!
In 2018 after the bull run the market had a rally to .618 fib level & took 7 months to pump from $3000 to $13,500, applying the same mathematics to the currently rally after the last bull run a pump to .618 fib level in 7 months would take us to $48,500 by July.
Then had a 72% dump before the 2020/2021 bull run, and if the same thing happened we’d top at $48,500 by July and dump 72% to $13,900 before the 2024/2025 run.
VIX will rallyVIX has been notably subdued lately, and though I don't spend much time with VIX; this chart looks ready to pop to me.
Inter-exchanges spread is an interesting volatility indicatorAfter observing how much price could be different between exchanges especially during times of high volatility and emotion, I wondered whether I could reliably aggreggate and display concisely this information to improve my trading without having to frenetically check a dozen tickers of the same symbol across a dozen different exchanges, as most traders do, myself included. This led me to create two indicators based on this idea.
Here is the first indicator, which summarizes the inter-exchanges spread by calculating the deviation (standard deviation or median absolute deviation, the latter being more robust against outliers - exchanges that saw scamwicks due to low liquidity or an unusually large whale doing an exceptional transaction):
And here is the second one, which instead displays clouds of min-max values overlaid on the price data, so that we preserve the price data, which can be directly used to define stop losses or entries:
The subject of this idea is what I highlighted by a red arrow in the chart above, from the second indicator applied to BTCUSD in the first half of March 2023, post SVB bank collapse. BTCUSD saw an unexpected face-ripping rally. No indicator I know of could predict it, and no price action was indicative, except from experience knowing that we were in the lows of the range and that it was a potential time for a rally up, but I could not predict the proportions. I knew that because of SVB being a black swan event, the pump could be big, but I had no indication it could be bigger than the post FTX rally.
However, the second indicator linked above provided a convincing evidence of a much bigger volatility in the highs (green cloud) than in the lows (red cloud), which suggested that, in addition to an overall high volatility and hence emotions and hence likelihood of a big move potentially happening soon, the bigger green cloud suggested a bigger interest in longs than in sales (red cloud). Hence, it seems the second indicator's green and red clouds can also be seen as representative of buying-selling pressure in some ways that even buying and selling pressure indicators can't show (see also my other indicator which is a merge of several buying-selling pressure indicators):
This is a very interesting observation that I don't think I saw before. I will keep investigating inter-exchanges metrics, as this may provide a new way to detect early market inefficiencies.
Bitcoin launching from hereThrough publicly available tradingview scripts I used TA, pattern recognition, multiple timeframes and determined while seems strange I believe bitcoin is going to launch from here. I think stocks are going to crash from here. Usually bitcoin follows stocks but for some strange reason not this time according to my analysys. Hope I’m right because I been with bitcoin since it was below $100. It’s always going to die or go down or zero…. But it keeps on trucking. Now for other coins I don’t monitor but this is and always be the grand daddy.
Nasdaq for history loversIf history repeats itself...
1. Upcoming +50% 3month rally more or less
2. Recession is officially here and -20% from previous lows
3. Rally again hard to >+100%
4. Double bottom
5. New bull market begins
Look First / Then Leap
TESLA BUY the Rumor Sell the FactTESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. Strong Move today on Lower Volume. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution"
I can see Possible Bullish Continuation through Wednesday.
Technicals/Indicators/Patterns:
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too ..
-^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220 area
-^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side
BEARISH:
-Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61
--Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr)
-Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit
-OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is contrary)
-Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution
_____________________________
-***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days
*Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP
This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends (Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March)
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Options
Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall
-Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5
-Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump
Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low
Positives:
-Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again..
-Berlin Higher production levels
--QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally
Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/Bearish (Long-Term Bullish)
My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ...
$200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234.
Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap (0.618 retracement)
Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down"
*watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area
-I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of"
-Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
$RLY one more time... Finally time to rally?I've been waiting a long time for Rally to finally move and it looks like it might be time (within the next week).
$RLY found support at $.115 and it now looks to be forming a large inverse head and shoulders pattern on low timeframes.
Once it breaks above $.157, we should see a quick move to $.257 and it should head to the final target of $.0328.
This isn't a coin I would hold, but it does look good for a trade.
Let's see how it plays out from here.
Why not?No position here. I think price is going to make another bounce before crashing. I'll use that bounce to close my long positions for now or reduce them, and add to my shorts. I think a big drop is coming and I don't want to be in the wrong side of the market.
BTC Outlook 2023 - 2027BTC Outlook 2023-2027 (Revised)
I think its almost confirmed with high confidence that this rally is bear market rally, not a rally of a new cycle that ends the BTC bear market. 25k is already its highest peak, it will going sideway for a while before resuming the drawdown to a lower level. Q1 2023 is one month left before it ends. This rally is the corrective move of wave 4 of the 4th cycle ABC move. After we have the truncated bull market of 2021, now we also have a truncated bear market. Its a textbook Elliot Wave cycle but its just not the ideal one. But it is the ideal one to model the current cycle.
We can see that the peak of the current rally has touch multiple important moving averages. That's it, the unbreakable wall of the rally. Next move we will see again another massive drawdown, the wave 5, the last wave of the ABC move. My prediction is that BTC will be asking for a major support between 12-14k liquidity area, touching 1M 100 SMA and 50% of Fibonacci retracement level, and surely a weekly bullish divergence will be formed, and that would be the best time to buy before a new cycle started. Approximately the bottom will be formed around Q2-Q3 of 2023, but I think Q3 is preferable considering the macroeconomic condition.
The identification of almost-confirmed-with-high-confidence wave 4 of ABC move also stating that the current cycle has been going a time period of more than 4 years tradition and still counting due to a longer bear market. The first time that BTC breaking this tradition after going 3 Elliot Wave cycles and 3 halvings.
For the next cycle, we will have the first wave peaking between 32-37k, the 3rd wave peaking at around 2021 ATH and for the 5th wave, the blow off top will be around 130-170k.
Let see if this post will age really well in the coming years.
Bitcoin Reversal Signal on WEEKLY - part 2This is a follow up of my other idea ''Bitcoin Reversal Signal on Weekly''.
Here, I predicted that bitcoin would reverse on the major weekly rsi divergence and it did for sure! Now looking at the daily chart: I don't think this bounce is over yet, I think there is still some juice left. To me it looks like BTC is forming an inverse head and shoulders, this breakout could send us pumping really hard, however, there is still a big resistance zone at 30k. I think this move can reach 30k for sure, there is a chance at 30k would break and then I think we can overshoot towards 40k+. Is the bottom in? I'm not sure, but for now, I think Bitcoin has some room to go the upside. Remember that we went down for more than a year without any significant counter-rallies, so I don't think this rally is unjustified.
Bitcoin longterm chartI thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe.
They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart.
I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue to grow exponentially. This would lead to insane prices of many millions in 2025.
I am a bitcoin longterm bull, but one has to remain realistic.
The cause of these growth cycles are the halvings, which lead to a supply shock with a subsequent rally. Every time.
These are all guesstimates of course, but I think this chart is realistic.
The very longterm goal of BTC, in 2030+, is at around 1 million USD imho. It won't go much higher afterwards, it can be seen as the final asymptotic price.
The next peaks should be at around 100k in 2022, and around 300k in 2026.
I hope this chart helps people understand the longterm growth dynamics of BTC :)
$RLY basing for next leg up? $.022 target?$RLY seems to be consolidating and I expect price to return to $.0115 to retest it as support after it broke up above it. If that area holds as support, then I see another leg up for $RLY which can see 80%+ upside to the $.022-$.024 target.
Let's see if it plays out.
SPY - can this rally extend to the upside? As always, everything is possible. Just some important levels on chart for you to have in mind.
Short term and medium term uptrend, long term downtrend.
If we break the trendline I believe this rally could catch some further steam.
Risk here comes from trendline and 200 MA resistance. If we secure price above VCOP, this could be low risk trade to the upside with PT at - 410, 413, 430+, 437.
We also have price and MACD divergence.
Grey line is AVWAP from ATH and October low. Volume profile is also drawn on this chart.
If the SPY breaks above $411.50 tomorrow - the RACE HIGHER is ONHave you been following my research?
Maybe you should stop to consider what is possible with advanced predictive modeling solutions.
For example, here are my SPY Cycle Patterns for the past 20+ days - and 20+ days into the future....
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
1/28/2023
1/29/2023
1/30/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/31/2023 Break-Away
2/1/2023 Rally-111
2/2/2023 Rally-111
2/3/2023 Carryover
2/4/2023 CRUSH
2/5/2023 Rev-Rally
2/6/2023
2/7/2023
2/8/2023 Inside-Breakaway
2/9/2023 Harami-Inside
2/10/2023 CRUSH
2/11/2023 GAP Potential
2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal
2/13/2023 Rotation
2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21
2/15/2023 Consol-210
The high (so far) on the SPY reached the $411.46 level (a clear DOUBLE-TOP).
Above that level, we'll see $418~421 fairly quickly.
Please pay attention.
Ask yourself one question: who else do you know that can predict price movement 120+ days into the future?
Here we go.
Oversold!!Tesla is landing over an important support and is oversold (top chart). Last time it was oversold on May 2019 (bottom chart) at this levels it shoot up more than 40% within a couple of months. And don't think that's going to happen again but I do think we will see the price moving up to the next resistance.
AMD: Key Reversals, and Short-Covering RalliesAMD has been in a bear market since December 1st, 2022. For those of you who took a short position, you have had to endure three major short-covering rallies. The first short-covering rally which began on December 12th may have made you reconsider your decision to short in the first place, and you probably got out at some point. But when is the best time to get out and possibly go long? Identifying key reversals can be helpful in these situations.
In a bear market, a key reversal is when the price makes a new low but closes on or near the high (the opposite is the case in a bull market). A bar chart can help you see this better. I've placed black arrows under the obvious key reversals on the daily chart. The orange arrow shows a key reversal that may not fit the definition exactly since the price closed just above the middle and not very close to the high.
These rallies only lasted a couple of days each, and since the key reversal can't be identified until the end of the first day, the opportunity to make gains with a long position only lasted one day.
An opportunity to go long has just presented itself on January 6th with a key reversal. I'm expecting a rally on January 9th. The question is, will this rally continue to the upper resistance line, or fizzle out in a day or two and retest the support it bounced off? I'll be watching.
Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.
$360K BTC in 2023 if we are in a similar type of rally like 2017The title says enough. We might be in a similar type of rally like we had in 2017, which means that you won't be getting any chances to buy lower after corrections. 12 Jan 2023 is when BTC began pumping, just like in 2017, I have used the bars pattern from that period, that pump lasted until a blow off top in Dec.
RUT Russell 2000 Santa Rally U.S. stocks tend to rise during the Santa Claus rally period.
The Santa Rally is considered the last five trading sessions of the year and first two of the new year.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has traded higher 78% of the time during the Santa rally period for an average gain of 1.3%.
My price target for RUT Russell 2000 is $1860.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
BITCOIN Will Have a Correction Before Going Back BullishHello Bitcoin traders,
Bitcoin has been very bullish for the past two days, but always be ready for a correction because many signals show that it is still overbought (see my previous post for 4 signals).
With the Fibonacci Retracement, we see many moments where the principal lines served as support or resistance for the price. The price has now reached the "Golden Pocket" where reversals often happen.
We can expect the price to have a slight to medium correction before continuing its bullish rally.
Just .. a bear market rally... Weird i have heard that before ;)It seems to me that the overall sentiment of the market environment is currently that you should not buy into this pump as it is just a "bear market rally", the entire year of 2022 I have not heard that term thrown around at all, only now to resurface in this rally.
I think the market has experienced a lot of pain and is now trying to justify that we are still in this aggressive bearish downtrend. To ME this is the DIisbelief stage of the bear market.
Let me know your thoughts
4 signals shows that BITCOIN is overbought.In this chart we see many signals that indicates that Bitcoin is overbought and that the price will soon be corrected and go back down.
- A trendline connected 3 corrections, but then the price rallied, thinking it doesn't has to come back to the trendline, meaning it is too bullish and is overbought.
- Candlesticks broke above the Bollinger Bands (BB), meaning there is an upcoming reversal.
- RSI is above 70 (=overbought)
- Bollinger Bands %B is above 1 (=overbought)
Using the TBS Strategy, consider selling when the BB %B crosses down.
Rally into 2023? Likely rally into 2023, spurred by downward trend in inflation. Likely 25bp hike at next meeting, then full stop to evaluate the damage (and give time for lagging economic data to catch up to policy changes). Unemployment will rise, possibly some deflation, and fed will cut rates towards the end of 2023 in response to negative economic data. This will cause a second drawdown. Well, the rates will be correlated with a second drawdown, but the real correlation will be between the negative data and equities.
My initial thoughts as we move into a new year. Should be an interesting one.
Love,
InTheMoney
