Capitalizing on Bearish Breakout: Ideal Selling Opportunity 📉🐻We've got an enticing EUR/USD setup on the 1-hour timeframe that deserves your attention. Here's the lowdown:
📌 Technical Analysis Highlights 📌
📉 Bearish Breakout: After a period of range-bound trading (or a bearish flag, depending on your perspective), the price has decisively broken below a key support level, which has now flipped into a formidable resistance. This signals that bulls have been trapped, allowing the bears to regain control. The trend remains bearish
📈 Price Action Insight: With the balance tipping in favor of bears, I anticipate an escalation in bearish momentum, potentially leading to a sharp price drop. This presents an optimal entry opportunity for selling.
🎯 Trade Strategy 🎯
Given these compelling technical signals, it's time to consider a short position on EUR/USD. Look to enter the market with confidence.
📉 Take Profit Targets 📉
1️⃣ First Target: 1.06650
2️⃣ Second Target: 1.06250
3️⃣ Ultimate Target: 1.05900
Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if this insight was helpful 🌊🚀
Range
BTC BEAR TRAP : Trend Reversals 📈📉
Greetings, fellow traders! Today, let's explore a fascinating aspect of market dynamics – the concept that markets often change their trend direction when most participants least expect it. We'll dive into how we might currently be in a bear trap and what it could mean for a potential upswing.
📈 The Art of Contrarian Thinking: Market trends are tricky creatures. They often lure traders into thinking the current trend will continue indefinitely. However, seasoned investors understand that when everyone is convinced of a particular trend (bullish or bearish), the market may surprise with a reversal.
🐻 The Bear Trap: A bear trap is a situation where the market appears to be in a strong downtrend, leading traders to sell or short assets. However, this could be a cunning trick, as the market may reverse course, catching those overly bearish traders off guard.
📈 Signs of a Reversal: While we can't predict market movements with certainty, recognizing signs of a potential trend reversal is essential. This might include technical indicators, fundamental shifts, or sentiment changes.
🚀 The Anticipation of Growth: If we're currently in a bear trap, it suggests that the market sentiment is overly pessimistic. This can set the stage for a potential upswing when the market decides to confound the majority.
💡 Key Takeaway: The market has a way of playing tricks on participants. It's a reminder to remain adaptable in your trading strategy, ready to pivot when the unexpected happens.
🔮 The Future Unveiled: While recognizing a bear trap is insightful, always combine this with thorough analysis and risk management before making trading decisions.
In conclusion, market trends can be both persistent and deceptive. Understanding that trend reversals can happen when they're least expected empowers traders to navigate the markets with greater flexibility.
Stay vigilant, stay open-minded, and remember – in the world of trading, being prepared for the unexpected is often the key to success! 🧐🚀
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TRXETH: Potential Partial Decline of an Accumulation RangeTron's Ethereum trading pair has been trading at lows within the bounds of this range since near the end of 2020, and now as price approaches the end of 2023, We can see that it is attempting a Partial Decline, which can only be considered a confirmed Partial Decline once and if price hits the top of the range again from here rather than first making a full retrace to the bottom. The addition of a Partial Decline would then bring the Bullish breakout chance all the way up to 80%.
If it breaks out I'd suspect that it would go for the 61.8% Retrace first then jump to the 088.6% Retrace second.
EURNZD 3/9/23Honestly a very clean sell side swing from EURNZD so looking forward to this possibly giving us a tap in, now mainly iam looking for a bullish run early on this week which could be given to us by the C-swing at our SWL base, its given us very clean POIs to work with along with heavy amounts of liquid to serve up for seller and buyer!
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
Dow Kill zonesPlease enjoy my indicator
I made its a kill zone indicator but you trade between the zones
. The indicator directions explains it all.
Deluxo Capital
NFT/USDT 1D. Secondary trend. Wedge. APENFT. Justin Sun.NFT/USDT 1D. Secondary trend chart.
In the secondary trend we can observe the falling wedge forming.
In this wedge we've seen couple local downtrends forming, which are shown on the chart here.
Another such local downtrendline(red on chart) has been formed on broken above. As for now the price is in the consolidation and is moving in the small range between the levels 0.0...31 and 0.0000..88.
There's potential double bottom forming. The base of it is 14%(balance).
Notice that this is TRX's groups of tokens. I.e. Justin Sun's one. This coins like to sometimes move against the market.
The potentials above and below are shown on the chart.
It's quite likely we ain't gonna see really big move quite soon. Only local movements probably, but when the time comes it can move pretty huge.
Also notice that as the price drops(if it happens) - the targets are also obviously moving with the price. But with the time goes by, i think that in a half year - year there's a big probability of this falling wedge targets working out.
Notice also that there's some insignificant volume increase recently.
07/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30039.5
Last weeks low: $29299.0
Midpoint: $28558.5
Historically, August has not been a very bullish month for bitcoin and crypto as a whole. Other than 2013, 2017 & 2021 (Bull market years) August has had negative ROI.
The pattern shows that since 2013, every 4 years bitcoin has a positive monthly return coinciding with a bull market rally. If we were to apply this pattern to future returns, 2025 should have green August thanks to a bull market.
We already know that the halving is taking place somewhere in Q2 of 2024, the US election in Q4 2024 along with potential BTC ETF's from Blackrock becoming closer and closer to reality. 2025 Could be a very strong year for the crypto market as a whole.
In the short term, the way price has been behaving in recent weeks I would struggle to see why this August will be any different. For many weeks now I have believed that the target of 26.5K is in reach for the bears, approximately -9% from current price and when not including bull market years the average % return for the month is -9.8%. 2018's august returned -9.27%.
14/08/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $30265.2
Last weeks low: $29472.7
Midpoint: $28680.1
BTC continues to trade a very tight range as it has for many weeks now. 30k continues to be the resistance area, the previous weeks midpoint is the local resistance as its been tested for the last few days and cannot reclaim above. As usual that midpoint from the previous week is important to the direction of this week.
We've had some talk about ETF's recently, the former SEC chief has said the SEC will not approve a spot Bitcoin ETF. Personally I believe the SEC will not want to approve an ETF, however eventually I think players like Blackrock will get what they want, they always do and I wouldn't be surprised if it miraculously gets approved around the halving event, and you can be sure Blackrock and the other big players like Valkyrie would have already bought a large chunk of BTC before the supply halves at much lower prices.
Really that's what every trader/investor is waiting for because at the current moment there really isn't a lot of money/volume at all in the market. The start of this half of the year is evidence enough for that. Reserving capital for the big moves that come later down the line is essential and avoiding being chopped up by the market is a big priority.
EURNZD 13/8/23EN giving us an untradeable range here for a bullish move higher, not for what we have we will simply wait for a break as our overall bias is unclear, we did have a signal on Friday for possible downside so we will keep this in mind coming into this week, if our London open gives us a sort bias again we will look to follow that for our first entry of the week. until then we need a clear break out of our range.
Remember to always read order flow and follow what price is showing you instead of trading based on your desired direction. And, as always, stick to your risk and your plan.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
How to trade Fake Breakouts in the range Range trading, characterized by price oscillations within defined support and resistance levels, offers traders a structured approach in sideways markets. However, even within these stable waves, deceptive price movements known as fake breakouts can occur. These false signals can lead traders astray if not properly recognized and managed. In this article, we'll delve into the world of fake breakouts within range trading, equipping you with strategies to identify and navigate these misleading market dynamics.
Understanding Fake Breakouts:
A fake breakout occurs when price seemingly breaches a support or resistance level but quickly reverses back into the established range. These deceptive moves often trigger stop-loss orders and entice traders into taking positions in the direction of the apparent breakout, only to experience a sudden reversal against their trades. Fake breakouts are fueled by market manipulation, emotional trading, or sudden news events.
Here are few examples of fake breakouts in big Time-frames :
Often, this is not enough for entering a position.
Combine this with divergences on RSI or other factors for entry.
Key Characteristics of Fake Breakouts:
Swift Reversal: A true breakout sustains its direction, while a fake breakout swiftly reverses back into the range.
High Volatility: Fake breakouts often coincide with spikes in volatility due to market confusion and emotional reactions.
Trapped Traders: Traders who entered positions based on the fake breakout are "trapped" when the market reverses, leading to potential losses.
Navigating Fake Breakouts:
Confirmation Through Candlesticks: Wait for candlestick confirmation beyond the breakout level. A close above resistance or below support lends greater credibility to the breakout.
Increased Volume: Look for a surge in trading volume accompanying the breakout, indicating genuine market participation.
Use of Indicators: Rely on technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) to validate breakout momentum.
Strategies for Trading Fake Breakouts:
False Breakout Reversal: Enter positions in the opposite direction of the fake breakout when price returns to the range, targeting a retracement towards the opposite boundary.
Wait-and-Watch Approach: Allow the breakout to develop and wait for confirmation before entering a trade, avoiding pre-mature positions.
Risk Management When Dealing with Fake Breakouts:
Tight Stop-Loss: Set a tight stop-loss order beyond the breakout point to limit potential losses if the breakout reverses.
Position Sizing: Allocate a smaller portion of your capital to trades involving potential fake breakouts due to the increased risk.
Pros and Cons of Trading Fake Breakouts:
👍 Pros:
Opportunities in Deception: Skilled traders can capitalize on market deception by trading against fake breakouts.
Enhanced Risk Management: Proper identification of fake breakouts allows traders to minimize losses through tight stop-loss orders.
👎 Cons:
Increased Complexity: Identifying fake breakouts requires additional analysis and indicators.
Risk of Mistakes: Mistaking a genuine breakout for a fake one or vice versa can lead to missed opportunities or losses.
29.5K PIVOT POINT After many days of sideways choppiness between 29 & 29.5K. The pattern was broke sending us into that FVG I have mentioned in previous posts with a target of 26.5K. However, having dropped down to 28.5k and back up to 30k in 11 hours some volatility has been reintroduced into the market in the short term.
I have mapped out a mini range that I am observing, the 29.5K pivot is still the controlling factor in my mind. Now that price has deviated above and is now back in range printing a SFP, in addition to a bullish orderblock that is providing a reaction as the time of writing this post. I still think we have some downside to come should this reaction now clear the pivot point of 29.5K
Because of this, I am still confident that reaching the 26.5k target is possible. Regaining 29.5k confidently and proof that it is now support would make me reconsider this strategy.
GBPCHF I Range trading strategy Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPCHF Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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GBPAUD I Intraday short from resistanceWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** GBPAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
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TEAMLEASE 40% gain in 5 monthsThe share trades between a range of 1992 and 3212 and has covered the gap of 60% for 3 times in previous years. From the present level it can give a return of 40% in less than 5 months as per previous chart patterns. But the company is a small cap company so a risky bet to play. Please put money after deep thinking. The current P/E ratio is very low than the 7-year average P/E ratio and the company has significantly increased its revenue and net profit, so it becomes safer to buy it at this point of time. Present market analysis shows that it will furthur increase its revenue and net profit this year.
Thank you for reading it to the last
EURAUD I Brief short and break of rangeWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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ETH - Wait For The Bulls 💣Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
ETH is still sitting around a strong rejection zone as it is the intersection of the lower red trendline and horizontal green support
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups.
📈 For the bulls to take over from a medium-term perspective, we need an H4 momentum candle close above the last major high in gray around 1905
📉 In parallel, if the green support zone is broken downward, expect further bearish movement till the 1730 demand zone.
Which scenario do you think is more likely to happen? and why?
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
S&P500 = PRICING IN THE MONEY SUPPLYIn today's chart, we look at the S&P500 divided by the WM2NS (money supply).
The upward trend of the S&P500 has been unstoppable since 2009 and has climbed to new heights since 2013.
> However, as soon as you divide the chart with the "MONEY QUANTITY", the unadulterated chart = the reluctant truth is revealed.
= Regardless of the rising price of the index, it has not changed in real value / hardly noticeable.
= The "stock rally" was accordingly only the pricing in of the rising money supply.
We have been in a sideways channel for about 30 years:
= this was broken by the "DOT COM BUBBLE" and the "FINANCIAL CRISIS".
= in the chart, you can clearly see that the channel serves as support and resistance.
Currently, we are on the way to the bottom of the channel = another 18% - Downside.
> at this bottom, there is a high probability that we will run again to the other side of the range = 64 % - upside.
Looking at the 18% - downside in the S&P500, we would end up at around 3,000 points.
> The 3,000 mark not only goes over one with Fibonacci and POI levels, but also represents a strong DEMAND zone on the monthly chart.
> Based on this, we can expect a reaction in this area on a further down-sale.
Looking at the range, a scenario of further down-sale is more than likely and goes along with the opinion of many.
If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would greatly appreciate a review of the idea.
Thank you and a successful trading!
FOMC 26th JulyFOMC is upon us once again which means a high volatility event to prepare for.
BTC has fallen out of its 32 day mini range and is looking to close below its local low of ~29.5k. This gets the alarm bells ringing as there is a large FVG waiting below to be filled. A high volatility event such as FOMC can often help in achieving this but it's important to plan for each eventuality. You must plan for what the market does, not what you want it to do.
In green we have the bullish buying opportunities I have established, one is a simple range midpoint reaction play. I would like to see a wick below and a reclaim before targeting those range highs once more.
If that is not the case another bullish buying opportunity would be the daily bullish OB at 26.5k. This would allow the vast majority of the FVG to be filled and BTC could continue a rally towards local highs and potentially beyond.
For a bearish scenario, if price were to continue the downtrend past the midpoint with no significant reaction, this would prompt me to target either the bullish OB, or the range low.
These are the key areas for me, there really isn't a lot of good R:R trades in-between in my opinion. At least on the 1D timeframe.
🚀🎯 GBPJPY Bullish Momentum: Capitalizing on the Range! 📈Hey traders! Are you ready for an exciting ride on the GBPJPY forex pair in the 4-hour timeframe? 📈💹 Let's explore this fantastic bullish setup together!
📊 Range-Bound Market: GBPJPY is currently experiencing a ranging market, with strong support at 180.000 and a formidable resistance at 183.500. In this dynamic environment, traders can spot lucrative opportunities by buying the bottom and shorting the top.
🐂 Buyers in Control: The buyers have taken charge as the price recently bounced off the sturdy support level at 180.000 and formed a double bottom
🛡️ Moving Averages as Support: The moving averages are playing their part as reliable support levels during this bullish momentum. Their alignment reinforces the buyers' strength and provides additional confidence in this setup.
💹 Profit Target: My primary focus is on riding this bullish wave towards the top of the range. As the price approaches the resistance at 183.500, I'll closely monitor the market for a potential shorting opportunity or a breakout setup.
Feel free to share your toughts in the comments section, follow me for updates and don't forget to press the like button if this insight was helpful 🚀