S&P500 Futures Near Range High Resistance, But No Signal. Yet.S&P 500 update: The main stream media outlets create and capitalize on financial drama, but when you look at larger time frame chart of the broader market, there is nothing particularly dramatic going on here. This market is range bound.
Range bound markets are good at extremes because reversals are reasonable to anticipate on both sides of the market, long and short, even if it is against the bigger picture. At the moment, price is fluctuating around the range high which is the 2671 area. The level to watch is the 2692 reversal zone boundary for bearish reversals. This is where day trades or even conservative swing trade opportunities can appear on the short side.
Do not forget that the S&P is seriously affected by company earnings and with fundamentals such as the recent tax cuts entering the economy, it is important to consider how such information is likely to affect price action. This is why you must know how to form expectations that are within reason on both sides of the market.
Reasonable expectations begin with having a perspective. And this begins with evaluating larger time frame charts, and considering the fundamentals that are relevant at the moment. Make sure to visit S.C. for more insight on this market along with many others.
Rangebound
Dollar Still in RangeContinued sluggish performance by the Dollar is keeping it within a 550 pt Range between roughly 88.00 and 91.00. As previously mentioned, current market condition is a strong downtrend weakening and consolidating inside that relatively narrow range. This mornings Retail Sales announcement came in lower than expected, probably contributing to the continued drop in price. At the moment the Dollar is testing the 50.0% Fib retracement off of the March 1st high. Most technicals support a STRONG SELL but fundamentals are neutral. Will be waiting on the sideline but keeping a close eye on movement in either direction and correlating Dollar strength against other currencies for FX trading opportunities.
USDJPY LONG Update...Last Thursday I wrote about the potential trend change for the YEN , which has been dominant since November. If you're interested, go back and take a look at that post. We all know that Technical Analysis is an art and that fundamental analysis, while a little more empirical, still requires interpretation. However, price action fell right into my lap and I got in early on a couple long trades. Market action for the YEN seemed to suggest a potential shift and we're seeing an inkling of that with pairs such as the USDJPY and AUDJPY, both of which I am currently LONG.
With that said, although we've broken out of the downtrending channel, we are now in a range between 105.25 and 107.750. I have set my target right around the 107.750 as I anticipate selling pressure around this area.
BTC - consolidation continues and cash is king - for nowSeems to me people are either unreasonably bullish or unrealistically bearish. 8-12k is simply a Wyckoff trading range - one I expect we will stay locked in for at least a few weeks. Above 12k I am bullish, below 8k I am bearish.
There was huge volume coming off the 6k bottom, which as we all know was horribly oversold. In another idea I said if it hit 5k go all in with your life savings - too bad we didn't quite get there. If BTC closes a daily below 8k I'd be expecting a retest and possibly a move even lower, but I don't think this will happen unless we stay in a protracted bear trend moving into spring. Seen a lot of talk about breaking the downward trend line recently. I don't put much faith in trend lines unless there are correlating layers of Sup/Res, but the simple fact is these people aren't using log and they should be. I see no trend line break. 50/100 EMA about to cross bearish which could cause further selloff in the near term. 50/200 still bullish but tightening and in my opinion the golden cross is way too slow for crypto anyway.
To summarize. I think it is highly likely we stay range bound between 8-12k for some time and I personally am fine with that. We tested 12kish and moved lower, but haven't really given that 8k a chance yet. I'll be a buyer in the zone around 8000 that I've marked as support and a frequent scalper when opportunities present. Look to the daily bbands as they tighten for more hints on a final direction choice out of this range- but remember at this point in time the mid term trend is down and while you can trade these easy swings until your blue in the face, at the end of the day cash is still king and I'm going back to it until a clean break above 12k or until the ultimate direction out of this wyckoff range becomes clearer.
As an aside, isn't that GAM suite of indicators nice? Sell bearish pivots, RSI divs, and buy confirmed reversals all day long for easy money.
LTCUSD: Range Low Support Offers Attractive Reward/Risk.LTCUSD update: Price action has been consolidating and is now showing a reversal pattern within a projected resistance zone near the low of the range. I am now long (50% position size) from 230.01 This is a position trade that I intend to add to if price pushes extreme lows.
What is a position trade? It is a longer time horizon trade that requires less precision in terms of entry while risk is managed more with size rather than stop orders. This market is slower compared to the others AND it is trading in a general area that offers attractive reward risk (.618 support zone relevant to recent bullish swing) . On top of that, there is a reversal pattern in play on the 4 hour time frame. There is enough criteria for me to justify taking a fractional position with the plan to add if there is a selling spike below 200.
Why no stops or targets? Risk is managed in multiple ways, and a stop order is not always the best way. Since price can still push lower, I would rather control my risk by starting with a smaller position. It helps me withstand any adverse noise. If price completely falls apart, my loss will be much smaller than if I put on a full position now.
I intend to add to this position only if 2 scenarios unfold: the first would be the price spike that retests the low 170s. This would be an extreme move and much less likely, but if it occurs and the lower boundary of the reversal zone is rejected quickly, I will look to add in that area. The other scenario is if price can break above 253 and then establish a higher low which will be confirmation of a momentum change off of the range low. I won't get the best prices, but momentum will be in my favor which is acceptable for me.
As far as exits go, I will attempt to lock in some profit IF price can retest the 300 area while holding onto a smaller position for the longer term to see how far this market wants to go. Position trades are more like investing and have criteria that is less restrictive.
In summary, averaging into a market is not a "better" way or "safer" way to trade, the choice is more dependent on your outlook and risk tolerance. The big picture is bullish and the entire environment is still fundamentally bullish. As long as that is the case, I am confident in averaging into a position in a slower and cheaper market like this one. I am also realistic. If the market falls apart, (anything can happen) I can take the loss because it is limited by the smaller size. This technique is NOT a good idea if you are using margin, because that is when losses can get magnified to the point of wiping out your account. Having a sense of context is also very important for trades like this, because it helps you see through all the hype, nonsense and noise.
Comments and questions welcome.
EUR/USD: Rising Channel / Ascending Wedge - BE PATIENT!Not the best currency pair to be getting involved with at the moment. There is a lot of possible scenarios developing and no clear direction. Not only are we within a range, but also in the middle of Channels, which is not an ideal entry point.
Identified are: 1) Ascending Wedge Pattern; 2) Channel #1; Channel #2;
At the time of this post, on a slow post xMas session, the market is range bound (Grey box). In short, a break above the range, followed by a pullback to the Mov Avg and bounce back up stands as a good bullish entry with TP at the red resistance levels. The opposite below the grey range would be a good short opportunity to the bottom trendines of the channels.
The trend is clearly bullish since retesting the support levels at 1.1720. The dotted ascending trend line and relatively low RSI level makes a good case for a Wedge pattern which would take the pair up towards the 3 red resistance levels to finish out the pattern. This upwards strength is also backed up by the retesting of the Mov Avg followed by strong pushes up forming candles with long tails.
On the other hand, if the wedge is merely apparent and we are within a Channel, the lower 1.18's stand as a good Long entry point when coinciding with the trendiness to then go back up to the red resistance levels within the plotted channels.
Staying patient will yield the most profit right now.
How we would take this trade:
Agressive Approach: Wait for the market to breakout of the Range. Wait for the pullback to Mov Avg and Support or Resistance levels of range (depending on the direction of the breakout) and get in there to the designated TPs (Red Resistance if bullish breakout, bottom of Channels if bearish breakout)
Safer Approach: Let the market reach the extremes of the channels and enter a trend reversal trade (Short at the top of Channels coinciding with resistance levels, Long at bottom of channel coinciding with Support).
Stay patient. Good Luck. Low Volume market right now, which can surprisingly be volatile when you least expect it and fake you out.
Vertcoin Accumulation Continues - 12-18-2017Oh, Vertcoin, you are still rangebound.
While we've had 3 solid green candles, price has not shoot off to the moon in this latest crypto rally. However, on the positive side, price has respected the Bollinger Band midline and is now trading in the upper part of the range. There are big money bulls buying up every dip. The longer the accumulation, the higher the breakout will go. Look at NEO for a great example of what happens with a really long accumulation period.
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Neo Breaks Out of Range and Heads to Tag ATH - 12-13-2017$NEO broke out of it's almost month long range and is now riding the Bollinger Band's outer level as it attempts to get back to the All Time High. We'll have to wait and see if this is the breakout will follow the breakouts we've seen in other altcoins. Stay tuned and HODL!
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Cardano Continues to be rangebound - 12-13-2017Cardano continues to trade within the range of the daily candle of 12/7/2017. And, of course, this is within the range of the daily candle from 11/28/2017. This accumulation period could last for a long time while the big money market makers are establishing their positions.
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Vertcoin Indecision - 12-12-2017Today's doji reflects true indecision. Since it was halving day, this should not be a surprise.
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Neo Looking to Break Out of Consolidation - 12-12-2017Neo looks like it's poised to break out of the consolidation range in early trading.
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LTCUSDT ShortSwing Trade (D, 240)
We are in overall buyers territory on the Daily, after 84 USD we didn't make an LL and after 98 USD we didn't make an HH. So, we are working on power on both sides (Range Bound) we are on the top of the Range and we can see a clear incident between 99 USD and 104 USD that price came back aggressively and breached the 98 USD S & R and holding below that. We have got 100% retracement and buyers are completely dead. We can expect the price to reach the recent S & R or below the Range ( Blue bottom Line ).
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Neo - 12-6-2017Neo continued consolidating today, dropping down to tag the lower Bollinger Band. At that point, buyers stepped back in with just enough strength to push price back above the support levels. However, with price closing under the BB midline, expect to see more price consolidation in this lower part of the range until more buyers come back in.
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Neo - 12-2-2017Neo continues to be range-bound as the rest of the crypto market goes higher. The breakout may not come until next year. But for myself, this is a great time to stock up on Neo.
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