Signs Of A CONFUSED MarketHi @FollowMyForex traders,
Earlier this week I was reading about how managers at some hedge funds were
removing their money from the markets because they just didn't know how to read
the markets right now. It said, "even the big boys are getting slaughtered".
Currently, we are experiencing a confused market if there ever was one. Just
take a look at the current H1 move on the USDJPY . A
60 pip drop followed by a 60 pip rise isn't any way you'd see the market move
in recent history.
We've been seeing this up-down whipsawing the whole week. Some big traders have
been taking shots this month like never before in their careers. I even know of
two who have reached their maximum drawdown and is going to take a break from
trading for 7 days now. Ouch!
It's in times like these that the most important aspect of trading becomes
clear again - risk management.
It's easy to forget about it when it's raining pips like during the period from
the end of February until end of April, but it's a bad habit to get into,
whether it's going good or not.
Why?
Because you never know when an unpredictable change in the fundamental
way the market is trading is going to happen and hit your account
hard.
If you got out of trades when you saw markets were behaving erratically - good
for you.
If you maintained strict management and never risked more than you should to
recover from a loss - good for you.
If you are ending the week anywhere between profitable and 1% - 2% down - GOOD
FOR YOU. You were practising diligent money management.
Thanks to everyone who traded with us this week and congrats on the winning
trades!
Trade safe and have a great weekend.
♦ P.S. Dear reader, if you liked this post, I would greatly appreciate a
thumbs up! And if you want more commentaries like this, trade ideas and
signals, remember to follow me. Thanks!
Rangetrading
EUR-USDEUR/USD has broken out of the range that is used to trade in it since March.
It looks like its finding acceptance above the previous resistance zone (1.09 ish). which provides us a good risk to reward trade setup.
a pullback to the support level can be a good long trade to the next resistant zone around (1.1 ish)
you can manage your risk an average true range below the support level (40-50 pips below the support) and take profit at the equilibrium of the range (mid-range around 1.105) and take the rest of the trade off at the next resistant zone (1.11). It can provide a 1/3 risk to reward ratio.
CADJPY 1D RANGE TRADESRanges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Ranges are consolidation chart patterns that can breakout either direction.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
Whatever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows a
dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of average volume for a full position size.
b - If 75% of average volume then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
2 - Enter two trades.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.
Straits Times Index (STI) Analysis 26 May 2020; Staying NeutralCurrently staying neutral for STI. It is trading below the range EQ of 2689.97 and has not been able to reclaim this. This is bearish, which means every bounce should be shorted.
However, it is trading above the Order Block (OB) EQ of 2517.52 – hanging by a thread. This is the critical point to look at: whether we reclaim this or lose this at monthly close.
When monthly closes in the next few days it will give us a clearer picture. There are 4 scenarios we need to contemplate:
1) (High Probability) Lose OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential swing short. Take Profit (TP) 1 targeting the EQ of the OB below us at 2318.17.
2) (High Probability) Reclaim OB EQ of 2517.52 -> potential scalp long. Take Profit (TP) targeting the range EQ at 2689.97. Do not stay in this trade for too long. 1) Market structure has broken down on the high time-frame, 2) we are trading below range EQ, so this is a counter-trend move. Hop out of the trade if it is getting uncomfortable; don’t be too fixated on hitting the TP.
3) (Low Probability) Monthly close reclaims range EQ of 2689.97 -> Swing long position. TP1 targeting the EQ of the OB above range EQ at 2919.34.
4) (Very, very Low Probability) Monthly close sweeps range low of 1473.77. This is definitely a long term swing long. Doubt it will happen in the near future.
Range trading: Forex as for 25/05/2020Under that heading we publish signals of the indicator called “Ranger” . It was developed by our experts for intraday trading purposes.
This indicator is based on statistical analysis of the data and provides information about possible maximum/minimum values of the day (just right after the day has started) with certain probabilities.
What does this information give to the trader? Actually, a lot. First of all, trading signals. For example, if during a day the price approaches the upper (lower) mark, it can be concluded that it will not go higher (lower) prescribed mark today with already known probability. So, you can open a position opposite to the current movement, knowing in advance that it will be profitable with a certain probability.
EURUSD
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.0834
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.0808
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.0782
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.0962
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.0988
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.1013
GBPUSD
Long position 1 [/b
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2087
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2045
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.2003
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 1.2269
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 1.2311
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 1.2353
USDJPY
Long position 1
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 68%) 107.18
Long position 2
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 95%) 106.95
Long position 3
(The price today will not fall below this mark with a probability of 99%) 106.71
Short position 1
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 68%) 108.15
Short position 2
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 95%) 108.38
Short position 3
(The price today will not rise above this mark with a probability of 99%) 108.62
Calculations are based on the historical data and history doesn’t necessarily repeat this particular day. Recall, that mentioned probabilities are not 100% and do not guarantee risk-free trading.
Sell USDJPY From Top Of RangeHi @FollowMyForex traders,
We're selling USDJPY from the top of this clearly defined range.
As long as price remains between these two zones the range is still intact, however we do have a bearish bias on this market. Therefore we favor selling and specifically selling from the top of this range.
If the top of the range holds and moves back doww, it can gain us another nice +35 pips in the beginning of this week.
Updates to follow, trade safe.
EURUSD Range Market SellsAn obvious setup during a range bound market. We can see here that price has created a strong range between 1.09858 and 1.07798, and this is clear on my chart. As you can see, price is now at the resistance in this range and we can see a nice reversal pattern.
Now, if price decides to move higher, then we would look for a solid break through of the resistance (1.09858) a retest of this resistance, initially turning to the new support and thenwe would enter for Longs. For now thought, Let's see how this plays out.
EURUSD SELL
Price: 1.09620
SL: 1.10183
TP: 1.07798
Risk to Reward Ratio - 1:3
EURNZD Short 500+ PIPSRanging market with price at upper supply zone.
Price at strong supply zone marked in Blue rectangle with current resistance met at the red line.
Entry at current price
SL at just above the supply zone at around 30 -40 pips to allow market to breath.
Tp 1 at green line which is previous structure.
Tp 2 at bottom of range for a possible 500+ pips.
*Never risk more then 1%*
GOLD Long way: Decisive area to go short for retest or not (H1)GOLD Long way: Decisive area to go short for retest or continue
Here you will find a more detailled analysis to the previous and futur actions in GOLD!
** Instructions: Always wait for a good confirmation to the breakout (A reversal signal or a good break signal)
** Two candles in 15M are very important for a basic level (Begainer) to decide.
Short AUDNZD on Weekly Chart (top of range)Hey traders, I just put on a Short trade in AUDNZD from 1.0750, this forex pair is great for range mean reversion trading as they're very similar and stable economies so the pair typically oscillates within a wide range and doesn't usually show many parabolic trends.
Follow along as I'll keep this trading idea updated.
Jared.
EUR/USD RANGE LONG The pair is trading in a range and is now close to the support level of the range.
A good opportunity to go long.
Take1= 1:1 risk reward+ there is a local resistance level.
Take2= resistance of the range
A liquid pair and the daily range allow us to load decent volumes, so I those with larger depots-this is your trade.
Like and subscribe to support me and to get more quality updates on the market.
Wish you luck in your trading!
EUR/GBP Sensitive long position (95%) after decisive breakoutEUR/GBP Sensitive long position (95%) after decisive range breakout.
- Economic demonstration: The EURO is in a very good shape, the GBP is decreasing day after day this week, bad news for GBP indice all arround this last weeks. It is then the moment for breakout for a very long position.
- Technical Analysis in the chart.
GOLD: Eliot wave analysis on triangle pattern & retest strategyGOLD: Eliot wave analysis on triangle pattern & retest strategy
Here is another strong and clear confirmation for GOLD Long. Technical indicators are more in the upward side after the rejection after retesting the uptrend of the local triangle pattern (It is a reccurence over the hole week as u see in the chart, and that reflects the buyers intention...)
SHORT-term analysis (1H time-frame) : GOLD seems to be ranging in the area of 1693 and 1698 waiting for volume to go up very horribly (That is always realized in the morning from 6AM GMT to 16PM GMT)
First Target: 1710 , once this résistance is broke the next level is 1720.
AUSSIE YEN Top of the range!!!Short the Aussie Yen at the top of this range provides a fantastic risk:reward!!
If it forms a swing high, this is a beautiful technical setup. Top of the range, breakdown of support only to retrace and find resistance from that same trendline with a triple top to boot!! Tremendous potential
If you have any ideas supporting or on the contrary to my opinion please leave a comment.
Thank you and happy trading :)
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
DECISIONS FROM MIDDLE OF COMING WEEK - SBS - 240MN - MY IDEAThank you for your likes! Very Appreciated! Please Share also to help as many people as possible. Enjoy!
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We observed that after a long run down the market have found some power to stop the fall.
The market now moves in a range. We observed that the tops are lowering while the bottoms are increasing and doing their pullbacks on an increasing support line.
Monotone movement up and down in this range will see its end during next week. Probability of seeing more explicit moves from the middle of the week. Maybe first signs will show up from Tuesday.
Decision:
-Line are broken and you follow the trend
-Wait until market reaches back the resistance line to enter Short on a pullback down or Long on a significant break up.
Question triggering the community:
- Is it the right time to buy Brazilian Share?
Leave your comments on what would be your answer?
EUR/GBP Sensitive long position (95%) after decisive breakoutEUR/GBP Sensitive long position (95%) after decisive breakout.
- Economic demonstration: The EURO is in a very good shape, the GBP is decreasing day after day this week, bad news for GBP indice all arround this last weeks. It is then the moment for breakout for a very long position.
- Technical Analysis in the chart.