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Ratedecision

USDJPY Framing for March Rate Hike DecisionUSDJPY immediately relatively bearish, to potentially form an inverse H and S. After this, it might rise both due to Trump's upcoming tax plan and due to the potential for a rate hike. This is somewhat tentative though. Price action in these zone will be key. If the dollar decides to go bearish for a little longer before looking forward to the possibility of a rate hike, this still could hit our original target of 111.300, so watch for a push down to a new low at that support point. If 111.600 wasn't our bottom, that zone should be it.
by haylettc
RBA rate decision preview, key levels highlightedThe RBA rate decision tomorrow at 0330GMT has unanimous expectations for rates to remain unchanged at record low 1.50% (ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures pricing in a 95% chance of a hold). Data has been weak since the last meeting with Unemployment Rate rising for both December and January and is now at the highest since June 2016, while we also saw a miss on expectations for all GDP and CPI figures. Despite this, the RBA is expected to use alternative methods to drive the economy, as soaring Building Approvals and rising house prices narrow the scope a near-term rate cut (low rates push up house prices), while surprisingly Goldman Sachs see the next RBA rate move to be a hike amid global economic recovery and increasing incomes. Pressure on the central bank is building as GDP on a Q/Q basis posted a contraction for the first time since Q1 of 2011 and retail sales hit a 4-month low in December. Additional easing is still a possibility according to JPMorgan who stated RBA could ease further this year if there is turbulence in the strength of the economy, while Credit Suisse stated RBA could have to cut rates as many as 3 more times. Since markets are expecting no rate move, focus will be on the statement as neutral or hawkish comments could dampen hopes of future easing and boost AUD
by Trader_Troy
Bearish Cypher Ahead of ECB Rate DecisionRight now i'm getting ready for my live trading room stream, and I came across this bearish cypher pattern here on EURJPY. This will potential complete @ 122.531. Minimum stops need to be above the X-Leg. Here on the chart I have my stops at a 1.130 fib inversion of the X to A leg. Target 1 will be at the 38.2 fib retracement and target 2 will be at the 61.8 fib retracement. If you would like to join me for the live stream, here is the link: www.youtube.com Good Luck and Good Trading!
Short
by tommyb35
FED FOMC RATE DECISION HIGHLIGHTS - DXY/ USDJPY SHORTSAs expected the fed decided NOT to change the fed funds rate or discount rate. We could/ shoud see some USD flushing of fed funds for september to the downside I stick with my 99.5 to 100 for USDJPY shorts as attached. Attention now turns to Yellens speech in 30mins - deeper analysis to come then. FOMC Rate Decision: Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says Case For Rate Increase Has Strengthened Fed Sees Lower Rate Path in 2016, 2017, 2018 and Longer Run Fed Sees One Interest Rate Increase in 2016, Two in 2017, Three in 2018, 2019 D Three Fed Officials See No Rate Increase in 2016, Up From Zero in June Fed: Decided To Wait 'For The Time Being' For More Progress Toward Goals Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.125% at End of 2017 Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures Remain Low Just Four Fed Officials See More Than One Rate Increase in 2016 DJ News Fed: Expects Moderate Pace of Economic Growth, Labor Market To 'Strengthen Somewhat Further' Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 0.625% at End of 2016 Fed: Near-Term Risks To Economic Outlook Appear Roughly Balanced Cleveland Fed's Mester, Kansas City Fed's George, Boston Fed's Rosengren Dissent On Fed Policy Action George, Mester, Rosengren Preferred To Raise Fed Funds Rate To 0.5% To 0.75% Fed Continues To Closely Monitor Global Economic, Financial Developments Fed Continues To Closely Monitor Inflation Indicators Fed: Economic Growth Has Picked Up From Modest Pace in First Half Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures Remain Low Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.125% at End of 2017 Fed: Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Measures 'Little Changed' Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 1.875% at End of 2018 Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 2.625% at End of 2019 Fed: Inflation Continued To Run Below 2% Target Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 2.900% in Longer Run Fed Officials See Slightly Lower GDP in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, 2018 Fed: Inflation Expected To Rise To 2% Over Medium Term As Transitory Effects Fade Fed Median GDP Projections: 1.8% in 2016, 2.0% in 2017, 2018, 1.8% in 2019 Fed Officials See Unemployment Rate Higher in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, Lower in 2018 Fed: Labor Market Continued To Strengthen Fed Median Unemployment Projections: 4.8% in 2016, 4.6% in 2017, 4.5% in 2018, 4.6% in 2019 Fed: Job Gains Have Been Solid in Recent Months, Unemployment Rate Little Changed Fed: Household Spending Has Been Growing Strongly DJ News 2016.09.21 20:00:00 Fed Median Longer-Run Unemployment Projection: 4.8%, Unchanged From June Fed: Business Fixed Investment Remained Soft Fed Officials See Lower Inflation in 2016, Unchanged in 2017, 2018 Fed Median Inflation Projections: 1.3% in 2016, 1.9% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018, 2019 Fed Median Longer-Run Inflation Projection: 2.0%, Unchanged From June Fed Leaves Discount Rate Unchanged At 1.00% Fed Median Core Inflation Projections: 1.7% in 2016, 1.8% in 2017, 2.0% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
SHORT AUDUSD: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION - CUT 25BPS TO 1.50%RBA Cut the Cash rate to 1.50% by 25bps, the market has had a very subdued reaction though, barely falling 30pips from market. I still think there should be more downside here and into the mid/low 74xx before the full fade comes in - so luckily room for retails to get in, looks like the algos were having a day off today. This is positive for any kiwi$ short holders - this now puts almost certain pressure on RBNZ to do the same (if not 50bps) next week. Previously Aussie$ fell 180pips back in May 3rd on a 25bps cut like this, and the next day lost 40pips so a total of 210pips in 2days, 0.766 to 0.745 - assuming this model holds true this time we should then expect AUD$ to trade to 0.737 in 2-days given we started at 0.758. Thus the 0.744/5 target I have should be modest but inline with the subdued market reaction (TPs further to the LHS run the risk of being faded out unreached). We could/ should see some more selling through LDN/ NY as real money gets on board - unlikely to stay in the 0.75's for today (or close here imo). RBA Interest Rate Decision Highlights: -AUSTRALIA AUG RBA CASH RATE* DECREASE TO 1.50 % (FCAST 1.50 %) VS PREV 1.75 % -RBA SAYS RISING A$ COULD COMPLICATE ECONOMIC TRANSITION -RBA SAYS JUDGED ECONOMIC GROWTH WOULD BE IMPROVED BY EASING -RBA SAYS GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWING AT A PACE BELOW AVERAGE -RBA SAYS RECENT AUSTRALIAN DATA SUGGESTS OVERALL GROWTH CONTINUING AT A MODERATE PACE -RBA SAYS UNDERLYING PACE OF GROWTH IN CHINA ECONOMY APPEARS TO BE MODERATING -RBA SAYS RECENT DATA CONFIRMS INFLATION REMAINS QUITE LOW, EXPECTED TO REMAIN CASE FOR SOME TIME -RBA SAYS LESS RISK OF LOW RATES OVERHEATING HOUSING MARKET -RBA SAYS LABOUR MARKET DATA CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT MIXED
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
12
EURCHF: SNB JORDAN - EYE & BUY 1.05/8, 80% SEPT CUT, STRONG CHFSNB President T. Jordan comment highlights: - If Needed, Can Cut Rates Further - 50bps to 1.25% possible until negative rates turn less effective - €˜Big Concern€™ Over Significantly Overvalued CHF in 2016 risk-off dominated year - CHF 3m Libor prices 80% chance of a 25bps cut (-0.75 to -1.00%) within 3 months (was only 40% before brexit) - Low bond yields not ideal for foreign-reserve management - Swiss central bank president currently doesn’t see need to act/ adjust policy, despite risks - Survey shows CHF needs to rise to 1.05 before rate cut President T. Jordan G20 Quotes: 1. “We are monitoring the situation very carefully: what are the consequences for inflation and growth in Switzerland, what are our policy options,” 2. Regards to ECB/ BOE future policy - “The franc remains significantly overvalued, it’s a big concern for us.” 3. “The low level of interest rates is of course not ideal for foreign-currency reserve management, but monetary policy is expansionary everywhere,” Jordan said. “That’s an environment we can’t change and we have to adjust our investment policy accordingly.” 4. “There clearly are risks,” but “whether they materialize or not is not in the hand of Switzerland,” he said. “It depends on the decisions Europe will take and how strongly they will affect the global economy and financial markets” and “we hope, of course, that sensible decisions will be taken.” Trading strategy: 1. Looking at the 1.08 level it looks like there is some clear SNB defence of this level, which is consistent with the SNB's comments that they have intervened at this level in the past (e.g. brexit). - So an easy strategy is to buy any <1.08 dips, with a 1.088-1.09tp as it looks as if there is some consistent buying from the 1.08 level to the 1.09 level so take advantage of this trend , lower the better, as it certainly looks as if the SNB is engaging in intervention at this level and will continue to do so - even if not officially as in the past with the 1.20 level. 2. Bloomberg Poll see's a definite SNB 25bps cut if the EURCHF drifts to the 1.05 level - so beyond buying 1.08 dips with perhaps 1lot, i advise strongly buying 1.05 and less dips with say 2-4lots based on heavy FX intervention directly or rate based if we were to such low levels. TP can be placed at the 1.08-9 level still - In terms of cutting capacity, also polled by BBG showed that the SNB has room for another 50bps of cuts before its negative policy may turn counterproductive - so this strategy is sound for now.
Long
by QuantumLogicTrading
LONG DXY / USD: HAWKISH FOMC RATE STATEMENT - SEPTEMBER HIKE?The FOMC rate statement was largely in line with expectations and to the hawkish side - with a september hike hinted at. Much of which followed the rhetoric of FOMC members in the past few weeks (see previous posts) and data (disregarding the poor -4% durable goods mom print). Perhaps the most hawkish/ promising statement made for a Sept rate hike was the fact Fed George Preferred to Raise Rates to Range Between 0.50% and 0.75% - hinting hikes are now being considered. And "Fed Could Raise Rates Later This Year, Possibly As Early As September". Though on balance the Fed did repeat the dovish phrases "low/soft" several times when regarding various measures of inflation and business investment. This FOMC Statement holds in line with my medium run long $ view (hike based) - especially against Yen, GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD who are expected to ease and thus policy diverge. In terms of market pricing, the Fed Funds Future Option implied probabilities of a rate cut have continued their steepening this week - following the 3wk trend with Sept/Nov now pricing a 25.9/ 26.8% probability of a hike (up from 9% 2wks ago) - Dec now has a probability of 41.8% and is showing some stability here, with a 50bps hike implied at 9.9% and rising steadily. From this the implied probability of one rate hike in 2016 is at nearly 70% (Nov+Dec) - which imo is in line, or slightly below my qualitative probability of 90%. With the probability of 2 hikes at 12.5% which is about what i would expect. Nonetheless eyes are now focused on BOJ - which is expected to be a year changing meeting. September FOMC Rate Decision Statement - 0.50% unchanged: --Fed Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged, Says Near Term Economic Risks Have Diminished -Fed Offers More Upbeat Assessment of Labor, Economic Conditions -Fed Could Raise Rates Later This Year, Possibly As Early As September -Federal Reserve Keeps Fed Funds Range Unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% -FOMC: Voted 9-1 For Fed Funds Rate Action -Fed Leaves Discount Rate Unchanged at 1.00% -Fed: Economic Activity Expanding At A 'Moderate' Rate -Fed: Labor Market Strengthened, Job Gains 'Strong' in June -Fed: Payrolls, Other Indicators Point to 'Some Increase' in Labor Utilization in Recent Months -Fed: Market-Based Inflation Compensation Measures 'Remain Low' -Fed: Survey-Based Inflation Expectations Measures 'Little Changed' -Fed: Inflation Expected to Remain Low in Near Term -Fed: Inflation Expected to Rise to 2% Over Medium Term As Transitory Effects Fade -Fed: Household Spending Has Been 'Growing Strongly' -Fed: Business Fixed Investment Has Been 'Soft' -Fed Continues to Expect 'Only Gradual Increases' In Fed Funds Rate -Kansas City Fed's George Dissents On Fed Policy Action -George Preferred to Raise Rates to Range Between 0.50% and 0.75%
TVC:DXYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
4
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 2/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the second one, is alligned with a CUT of the rates from the RBNZ --> Long AUDNZD. The choise of pairs comes from a tactical advantage given by the current price action indicating a rebound from lower long term channel support line at ~ 1.06 which provides a decent margin for stop. Furthermore, the recent decision of the BoA to keep rates at current value should enhance the divergence between the two monetary standings, in case of an RBNZ cut.
Long
by LotsOfLore
Tentative: RBNZ decision setup. Part 1/2The RBNZ decision is coming up tonight at 22 UK time. While the expected outcome, on paper, is for a stay of the current rate, economists seem to speculate a probability of ~ 20 % of a rate cut I think, which is high but not so much to discourage a stay setup. How can we trade this exciting piece of news? Two setups come to mind. This, the first one, is alligned to a STAY of the rates --> Long NZDUSD on the break of the lower mid line of the pitchfork formation, current resistance of ~ 0.7. This decision comes from taking advantage of the current short term weakness of the USD. Possible targets could be the midline of the pitchfork or up to the 1.618 fibo trend calibrated fibo at ~ 0.72
Long
by LotsOfLore