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USDCHF: Rallies capped?USDCHF Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.9856 (stop at 0.9881) The previous swing high is located at 0.9870. We look for a temporary move higher. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 0.9795 and 0.9785 Resistance: 0.9800 / 0.9830 / 0.9860 Support: 0.9760 / 0.9730 / 0.9700 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’ ). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
Short
by VantageMarkets
UAA: Rallies should be capped!Under Armour Inc Short Term - We look to Sell at 9.16 (stop at 9.59) The primary trend remains bearish. Bespoke resistance is located at 9.25. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Our profit targets will be 8.06 and 7.50 Resistance: 9.25 / 11.50 / 18.00 Support: 8.00 / 6.00 / 3.00 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
NYSE:UAAShort
by VantageMarkets
SPY bulltrap again bef plunge;BO of 400/380 may see 350/320/280This is a SPY weekly chart after the Friday FED speech signaling continued hawkishness till inflation drops to 2%. Spy has a history of making bulltraps (higher highs on this weekly chart) before plunging as seen in my several boxes. It was rejected by the black downtrend line from the 476.44 ATH (see black falling wedge) & also rejected by the horizontal neckline of the H&S from top at around 330. BULLISH SCENARIO: If 362.17 June low is the bottom for this ABC correction, then SPY should make a higher low at either the psychological 400 or 380 (previous H&S destination & also the maximum Fib 0.786 retracement of the latest June rally). From here a new ATH is coming in 4Q2022 when inflation drops lower that 4% & the FED pivots. BEARISH CASE: SPY will not hold the 362.17 low if 400 & 380 fails. The final targets of this ABC correction may be the ff: *350 which is the 1.618 FIB EXT of this ABC, the 0.50 retracement from pandemic low to ATH *320 which is the 2.0 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.618 retracement from pandemic to ATH & also near the 0.382 retracement from 2009 bottom to ATH *280 which is the 2.618 FIB EXT of ABC, the 0.786 retracement from pandemic low to ATH & also near the 0.5 retracement from 2009 Bottom to ATH These estimates should be considered as +/- zones & not exact levels. The pandemic low of 211.11 is not likely to be retested. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYShort
by xtremerider8
$DXY update, $UUP-RSI inverse H&S formation, looks to be gaining strength and passing test at 50 RSI -Downward trend (orange trendlines) was broken. Now DXY is trading in a parallel channel (white borderlines, gray centerline) and has been bouncing off the bottom like a pinball and then hanging around the midway point of the channel consistently. -MACD is curling up and crossing. -US economy is stronger than ever. Tapering and rate hikes are typically bullish for the dollar and tend to make it more appealing, hence stronger -Targeting 97 or so for a medium-term target, back towards a 100 in the long-run -This of course could be a headwind for emerging markets if it plays out One way to play this if you don't have a forex trading account is to use the ETF UUP. Full disclosure, I am in UUP calls but you can also just buy the ETF outright if you prefer that.
TVC:DXYLong
by EBITDAtiger
US DOLLAR (DXY) - THE BULLRUN ISN'T OVER YET 🚨Macro trend analysis and price action suggests that the bull run for the US DOLLAR / DXY is not over yet, and at best, will have a small period of sideways consolidation on the Fibonacci line shown, before continuing its upside. The yellow lines shown are what I would consider reversal areas, the first one being at around 120 and the second at 160. This analysis coincides with previous economic downturns and recessions, where rate hikes and global debt sent the dollar sky rocketing. This movement will affect all assetts both inside and outside of the crypto space. Let's hope we see some macro trend reversals at 120, however data suggests that 160 is more likely.
TVC:DXYLong
by JamesSpindler
EUR/CAD - Long Set Up As ECB Signals Rate Hikes Are ComingThe EURO is likely to strengthen against the Canadian Dollar as the European Central Bank signals interest rates are going up in July and September, to move the overnight cash rate from -0.50% to 0.00%. The reason the EURO will strengthen is down to the fact that interest rate differentials will narrow from the market's previous expectation, so investors who are short EUR/CAD will likely look to cash in on the carry trade as it's now hit its peak unless the Bank of Canada goes further then markets expect with rate hikes. Oil prices are also a bullish beneficiary to the Canadian dollar, but Oil looks to have peaked since it hit $130.00 on March 8th 2022.
Long
by KayansMarkets
Bitcoin Price Projections Based on Fed Rate IncreasesTraders, We all know that the USD is still the global reserve currency. And who governs the strength or weakness of the dollar? Yours truly, JPOW and co. Crypto currency prices are absolutely without question tied to the broader markets and the U.S. dollar. Therefore, we MUST consider how our crypto lead dawg will respond to JPOW's rate decision. With that said, here's what I see in the cards for ole' BTC. Let's start with the worst-case scenario: JPOW rug pulls the market with an enormous 75 pt hike or more - we drop below our strong and very critical 37550 support, somewhere in the purple JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 50 pts hike soon or insinuates such action - we remain below our multi-year resistance level and move sideways-ish, somewhere in the red JPOW does the expected 50 point hike & either speaks to another 25 pt hike soon or insinuates softer action going forward - we either remain red or it is possible we go yellow again JPOW only bumps it 25! - Rocket fuel! It's moon time again! Green area. 🚀🚀🚀 Watch closely, everything (and I mean EVERYTHING) hinges upon the FED today! Press release 2:30 EST (I believe). Best to you all, -Stewdam.us
INDEX:BTCUSD
by stewdamus
2
SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on. TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts). So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash. Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle. Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements? Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers... This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic. First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries. Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%. Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world. We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on. (It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent. The Chart As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny. On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) . Please see for references. January. If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
4
Understanding Market Risks Through HistoryIn this post, I'll be referring to the historical chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) in order to explain my perspective on risks associated with the market, and how to respond to current market conditions as a trader and investor. This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only . In my previous educational post, I discussed why the Fed's rate hikes were not as significant to us as we thought it'd be. I mentioned the idea of the market already pricing in not only the information itself, but also people's reactions to it as well. As announced, the Fed raised rates on the 16th of March, approving the first interest rate hike in more than three years. As anticipated in my investment thesis, the market handled this well, and the Nasdaq index alone has bounced over 10.49% since the lows of the past 5 days. Today, I'm going to talk about the war in Ukraine from a statistical standpoint, and how this is unlikely to lead to a multi-year recession . Historical Cases - In 1914, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand marked the beginning of the first global scale war modern society would witness - The war lasted 4 years before Germany admitted its defeat and signed the armistice agreement. - During this time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit record highs of 110%, making today's 7% figures look moderate. - After the war, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied a whopping 504%, before the American economy was struck with the Great Recession. - After the Great Recession, the world faced a second world war in 1939, which started with Germany's invasion of Poland. - The markets crashed, but not as severely as the Great Depression, and CPI recorded 74% during this period. - With Japan's surrender, uncertainty was resolved, resulting in the DJI delivering 523% returns. - Then came the Vietnam war in 1964, which started with the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. - The market ranged sideways for almost a decade, creating lower lows, with situations deteriorated by the Oil Shock of 1973. - During this period, CPI hit record highs of 207% with factors of global uncertainty such as the war, which the US couldn't seem to win, and Oil Shock. - After the war ended and the economy recovered from the Oil Shock, DJI delivered a whopping 1,447% returns, until the market started shaking again with the 911 terrorist attacks against the United States. Lessons Learned - So what is it that the market tells us? - I've outlined what wars and regional conflicts do to markets in the post below: - Historical cases tell us that the market prices in information about the war, and corrects in advance. - Once the conflict actually takes place, the market starts to bounce from its local lows, as uncertainty has been resolved to an extent. - From a macro perspective, as seen through the historical chart of the DJI, the end of wars usually mark the beginning of a multi-year bull rally as negative sentiment will have been completely cleared by then. Market Risks - That is not to say that I'm irresponsibly bullish. I do think there could be probable cases that lead to a global expansion of the crisis, and the collapse of the financial markets. - For instance, Russia's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) could damage the markets to a greater extent than anticipated. - It seems as though the market is considering this to be an improbable case, which it is, but there's no reason to be too complacent. - According to an FSB whistleblower, it was recently revealed that Xi Jinping had plans to invade Taiwan this fall, depending on the success of Russia. - If that were the case, then it wouldn't be a huge logical leap to consider north Korea's possible initiation of war against South Korea, and a war breaking out at a global scale. Conclusion [/b It all boils down to uncertainty in the market, and people's irrational responses to it. I believe that a successful negotiation between Russia and Ukraine could lead the markets to swiftly rebound once again, though that is not the only factor of uncertainty at the moment. Inflation (CPI) will eventually cool down in an organic manner, as markets realize the stability that is being brought to the economy, and the Fed's actual influence on the market. People ignore bad news during uptrends, and they ignore good news during downtrends. I see a plethora of opportunities where companies that generate tremendous cash flow at an increasing rate with insane growth indicators, are neglected by the market. It's important that we clearly understand where we're at in terms of the market cycle. I believe that we're at a corrective phase of a bull market, rather than at the beginning of a recession. During corrections of bull markets, the smart move is to buy cheap stocks. It's worked effectively in making money 100 years ago, and I don't doubt that it'll work now as well. If you like this educational post, please make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below! :)
TVC:DJIEducation
by Michael_Wang_Official
8
Relief Rally in Stocks ahead of FOMCStocks got a major lift ahead of the FOMC rate decision today. As we are all well aware, the Fed is expected to lift rates by 25 basis points (one quarter of a percent) to begin their 'firefight with inflation' . The rate hikes were heavily priced into the markets, and when the decision is made, we can expect a relief rally as the uncertainty is lifted. Inflation is weighing on global stocks, so the action could help ease investor fears. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the buying, taking us all the way back up the entire range to 4327. If you recall this was our exact level from yesterday's report. It is likely that the majority of the rally has taken place, but we could test as high as 4421, a relative high. If we face resistance, however, we could retrace the entire rally back to support at 4144.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
BITCOIN Good or Bad News?Happy Monday Everyone! 😃 Thanks for stopping by for another BTC update! This time I look at the Bitcoin charts on multile TFs, but also at some very influencial geo political news concerning the Russia/Ukraine conflict, and finally news from the Feds about the future of the interest rates. I would also like to send well wishes to anyone that is affected by the terrible situation in and around the Ukraine. 🙏 Charts from the Video: 4H: 1 Day: 1 Week: 1 Month: Make sure to also keep an eye on the news and other markets! Credit for news sources: Al Jazeera: www.aljazeera.com The New York Times: www.nytimes.com Market Watch: www.marketwatch.com THANK YOU for your time ! Like 👍 = 😃 Comment 📜 = 😁 Happy Trading ✌♥📈
by DeFeye