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The Big Wall Street ShortIs it even possible to predict when a Black Swan event will happen? Is it impossible to time the market in that manner? This is what I will be attempting today , trying to time a stock market crash using fibonacci time dates in Bitcoin and the Dow. I think Bitcoin is a really important tool for world events , it's been running at a constant rate for more than 10 years now ,nothing shows human emotion more than Bitcoin and because of that I have been able to find amazing fibonacci time dates that can predict future marco events in Bitcoin which happen to line up with stock market moves. The Dow Jones fibonacci time dates are much harder to find , there is 100 years of data to go through so over the years I have tried to find the gold fibonacci time sequence but have failed to find a macro sequence with any significance. I do have two Fibonacci sequences that I’m currently following that could show us major macro events in the Dow jones. The first is the one you see on the chart above is the 0.618 happens to be the candle after a weekly all time high candle in the first week of January 2022, which was a major pivot to the downside. The next date in this sequence is 1.618 at the end of February 2023 which as you can see on the chart happens to be the date the Gann Fann and the rising wedge cross. The fact is that the Dow Jones is currently in a massive rising wedge ,it is the largest rising wedge in Dow jones history , I have gone over 100 years of price action and I have yet to find one this big. If this wedge breaks we could be in for the classic 50% historical market crash , on average the Dow Jones dumps about 50% during these events that can last over a year. So far we seem to be setting up for one of those crashes , let's have a look at past crashes. 2008 This market crash was 54% and took 504 days to play out , price declined 17% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1973 This market crash was 46% and took 623 days to play out , price declined 19% then we got the bounce followed by a rejection of the 4/1 Gann Fann. 1937 This market crash was 50% and took 392 days to play out , price declines 16% in this case then bounce and we get a perfect rejection at 8/1 Gann Fann. 1929 (Great Depression ) This market crash was the largest in history and was much more volatile but the pattern was still the same. We first get the drop then the bounce and a rejection of the 8/1 Gann Fann. So as you can see when we set up for these crashes we get a drop somewhere from 16-20% before a bounce and that is exactly what is happening right now , we dropped 20% and bounced , the stage is being set for a massive crash once this rising wedge breaks. The question is now when? Well for now have the 1.618 Fib date end of February 2023 that could be the date we would start to see a pivot down for the Dow Jones and start its crash down to 18000 area, this zone is exactly 50% from all time high which lines up with every other crash it also happens to be the bottom of the covid crash. I go over the idea of a big crash coming in this TA below , where I go over a very similar fractal pattern playing out around the time of the great depression. There is no denying that this fractal pattern is eerily similar to the great depression and the Dow Jones currently hit the 3.618 Fib level so pulling back to 18-19k will also line up with 1.618. If you zoom out you could see that the Dow is currently in a massive ascending channel. Whenever we get close to the top of the channel we find a lot of resistance or decade long consolidation . So using Bitcoin Fibonacci dates and two different Dow Jone dates I have narrowed down the possible potential window of when this crash will start. Late February to Late July 2023 this move could start happening ,it could look something like this : If this did unfold, where would Bitcoin be? Bitcoin has never been through a stock market crash of 50% and we already hit capitulation right? Well yes and no ,Bitcoin has two capitulation events before going back to all time high as you can see below. Now what happens is these two capitulation events is that we create a double bottom ,so it basically retests the first capitulation lows but after discovering what could happen in the Dow jones I believe that Bitcoin could put in its first ever lower low in the second capitulation phase which would look something like this sometime end of july 2023. So come late February 2023 we get a rejection off the 8/1 Gann Fann and we break the rising wedge , prepare for the worst and also the biggest short position of your life.
TVC:DJIShort
by Sporia
14
EUR to fall lower after ECB interest raiseI expect EUR to fall lower. 0,853 will make an excellent entry to be filled on Tuesday when ECB raises the rates. Then, I believe there is no reason for EUR to reverse the trend, hence it will continue lower. Fundamentally, both economies have problems such as energy crisis or political issues in Italy for the EU or political skirmishes for the UK. However, the Bank of England is far ahead regarding raising rates and European Bank probably can't even catch up due to the debt some of its members 'achieved'. The risk is that ECB will raise rates by more than 25 basis points. You can protect the position by not entering it except by stop-market / limit order submitted only after the ECB announces its final decision.
Short
by OrcChieftain
SPX repeating 1987?SPX hits 4.618 perfectly after a massive 12 year rally . The question is where does the SPX bottom? , best case scenario we bottom at the 2.618 and worst case the 1.618, we have been here before , we have to go back in time to 1987. Does it look familiar?, we have a very similar looking price structure. From 1968 to 1974 we created this double top structure with a lower low being made in 1974 only to reverse to the upside for 4600 days before nearly hitting the 4.618 and pullbacking back to the 2.618. Present day we have the same setup , a double top formation starting from the year 2000 then creating a lower low (red circle) only to reverse to the upside yet again for guess what 4600 days, yet that's right the exact same time. So if history repeats the SPX 500 has more to go , bringing it down to the 2.618 at 3000 points which would be a total of 37% from all time high. The question is does it then reverse up like 1987 ? or do we continue lower. If the SPX 500 did in fact make a move lower to the 2.618 or even the 1.618 I really don't know how low Bitcoin would go; it's never gone through a stock market drawdown of this magnitude since it was created in the 2008 real estate crash.
SP:SPX
by Sporia
4
How to create a real-time US real rate on TradingView US real rates drive everything in markets right now, and if they are going up then so is the USD, while equity will head lower – for context, the 1-month rolling correlation (assessed by value, not percentage) between US 10-yr real rates and the USDX sits at +0.94 – so there is an incredibly strong relationship. This is also true of equities, where the US real rate (we deflate the 10yr Treasury for expected inflation) holds a rolling 1-month correlation with the US500 of -0.92 and NAS100 -0.89. It sounds pedantic that one day makes a difference, but the default setting for 5 and 10yr US TIPS/real rates on TradingView, which the source a feed directly from the St Louis Fed (FRED) website – comes under the code DFII10 – as per the FRED website this, however, has a two-day lag, so the benefit to traders is reduced. We can see the breakeven component of real rates on TradingView (10-year breakeven, or the expected US inflation rate to average over the coming 10yrs – code = T10YIE) actually holds no lag, so we can now use this to create a more up-to-date US 5 & 10-year ‘real’ Treasury rate. So there work around - In the search function simply subtract T10YIE from the US 10yr Treasury (US10Y) and you can get a real-time real rate – type TVC:US10Y-FRED:T10YIE – this is the 10yr real rate, but you can change it to TVC:US05Y-FRED:T5YIE for the 5-year. Higher real rates act as the true cost of capital – they are the handbrake on economic activity that the Fed need to be more cognisant of than anything. If 10yr real rates are going to 1%, and if this relationship holds, then I think the DXY re-tests the 15 June highs, although we are seeing real support for EURUSD, and the US500 likely heads to 3400 – 3200. It's here where most see a trough in the market and where we bake in a true recession – not just a technical one, but one where we see broad-based layoffs. As it is, a recession is certainly probable, but will the economy talk itself into something far more pronounced that really impacts consumption?
TVC:US10YEducation
by Pepperstone
8
Mid Year Update: Part 1: 10 Year Rates:Mid-Year Update: Part 1: Bonds/Rates: I begin each year looking at monthly perspective charts of Equity, Rates, Commodities and DXY. Those posts can be found in their entirety, with extensive fundamental support, in the links below. I will update views on the four markets over the next few weeks. The early 2022 the conclusions were: - Bonds: A bull market defined by a broad declining channel, but rising inflation could easily change the trend. The most likely catalyst to end keep rates below 3.25% would be a financial accident created by higher rates. -Equities: SPX remains in a technical bull market and there are no overtly bearish behaviors evident in the longest perspectives. However short term weakness could easily morph into a bear market. -Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodities index is in the center of a broad 14 year range, bounded essentially by the low set during the financial crisis and the resultant 2011 high. The most notable/useful current chart feature is the clear uptrend from the 2020 pandemic low. Until that uptrend is broken, the most immediate trend is to higher price. -US Dollar: The wide macro range, 70.70 - 121.02 has contained price action over most of my trading career but volatility is more cyclical than price. These periods of low vol. set up conditions that often lead to explosive moves. Reminder: Bond bull and bear markets are defined by the PRICE trend. In other words, a bull market in bonds = rising bond prices and falling yields. 10 Year: Monthly: - In January bonds broke above the 40 year downtrend that had defined the bull market. The break of the downtrend moves the structural long term trend from bullish to neutral. -A monthly close above the 3.25% pivot would begin to define a long term structural bear. - Initial targets above the pivot are found at 5.29% (the 2007 pivot high) and 6.27%, (.382 retracement of the entire bull market). -The monthly MACD oscillator generated a long term sell signal (in December of 2020 at roughly 90 bps). Until this sell signal resolves, place less weight on buy signals generated in lower perspective (daily and weekly) time frames. Weekly: The combination of very strong resistance, overbought MACD and bad seasonals suggest that a counter trend weekly perspective rally or consolidation is becoming likely. -Testing very strong resistance while overbought both in terms of price and momentum. It wouldn't be surprising to see a testing probe of 3.50% but its clear that buyers (expecting lower yields) are becoming more active. -The Mid-June spike above 3.25% left a thrust rejection that suggested strong handed sellers entering. -Weekly MACD is threatening to roll over. -Bond prices have very strong seasonal tendencies, weak into the May - June time frame, stronger into the middle of September, and weak into the end of the year. We are into the period where bonds transition from weakness to strength. -While it’s clear that the trend lower in inflation has inflected higher, potential weekly perspective inflection points in commodities and energy should relieve some of the short term inflation angst and by extrapolation the pressure on bond prices. -Major yield highs are almost always the result of a financial accident with systemic ramifications. I don't think crypto is a big enough market to qualify and other than the widening high yield spreads I don't sense much going on in this regard. -Ten Year TIPS breakeven rates are on the verge of generating a MACD month perspective sell signal (suggesting lower expectations for future inflation). This is a direct reflection of the recent declines in energy and commodities. A TIPS sell signal would be very supportive of lower nominal 10 year rates. Bottom Line: The long term structural bull market is dead, but the market has yet to establish a new structural bear. Unless there is a systemic catalyst, Weekly perspective rallies, particularly into the fourth quarter, should be viewed as selling opportunities.
TVC:US10YEducation
by CMT_Association
19
Here's Why the Tech-Led Selloff is Likely Over (for now)In this post, I will attempt to provide evidence to show why the tech-led selloff is likely to be over (for now). I will use the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and its inverse derivative, SQQQ, as my argument's basis. The inverse (short) ETF of the Nasdaq, SQQQ, has never closed a weekly candle above the Leading Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud (pink line in chart). Last week and the previous week, the weekly candle was very strongly resisted at this level. Now, the weekly and monthly momentum oscillators started to move in the opposite direction. This will not only make it much harder for SQQQ to pierce the line, but it could also result in SQQQ plummeting quickly, and therefore QQQ and the Nasdaq rebounding quickly. For comparison, many data points are covered in this chart, and there is a high statistical probability that the Nasdaq has bottomed. Not even during the peak fear of COVID-19, when the global economy shut down and governments feared millions of deaths, did SQQQ pierce the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. In December 2018 when the Fed was starting to rapidly roll off assets on its balance sheet and was raising interest rates, SQQQ still did not pierce the cloud. This fear is very similar to today's fear. Even further back, not even during the major flash crash in 2015 or on Black Monday in 2011 when the market crashed did SQQQ pierce the cloud. Today, hardly anyone remembers these episodes in stock market history. Similarly, in ten years or so, few people (except maybe those who sold all their positions at the market bottom) will remember what happened in May 2022. The NDTH is a chart of the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks that are above their 200-day moving average. It dropped to nearly 10 in May 2022, meaning almost 90% of Nasdaq 100 stocks were below their 200-day moving average. The last time this level was reached was in March 2020 right at the bottom of the COVID market crash. The NDTH has never dropped below 15 except during significant bottoms on the Nasdaq. There are many other examples in which the charts suggest, with high probability data, that we just experienced a significant bottom on the Nasdaq 100. (Eg. The Nasdaq 100 was supported on the monthly base line, the monthly candle is extremely bullish, the monthly EMA ribbon of the QQQ/SPY ratio chart strongly held the outperformance trend in place, inflation and interest rate charts are cooling. Although this may be a significant bottom, it does not mean a years-long bull span is ahead. Rather the charts suggest the panic selling has ended for at least the short to intermediate-term. To be fair, some charts suggest that the QQQ/SPY outperformance trend could be nearing the end of its decades-long run. (Credit to @Breakout_Charts for identifying this) If this occurs, then it could be the start of a new cycle, or even super cycle, whereby the Nasdaq underperforms for years. Finally, a point about market psychology. Bottoms occur when 'extreme fear' turns into just 'fear' (yes, there's actually an indicator that measures this). That indicator has moved significantly from 'extreme fear' towards 'fear'. With this said, there might be a lot of people who might comment on this post and say scary-sounding things about the state of the economy or stock market. If none of these fears existed among market participants, we would never even have gotten to this bottom. Never sell because of fear alone. Not financial advice. As always anything can happen. Just my thoughts. Leave a like if this was helpful and you'd like me to post more analyses. Please feel free to comment below if you have additional thoughts.
NASDAQ:SQQQEducation
by SpyMasterTrades
5
5 Years of the Yield Curve 2018 - Flattening curve throughout the year with some slight inversion towards the end. 2019 - Complete inversion early in the year lasting awhile. Entire curve beginning to fall. 2020 - COVID Fed response slams the short end to the ground with the longer end having a pretty muted reaction. 2021 - Curve starts to stretch with short rates being extremely low and long rates showing pretty strong upside. 2021 - So far, the short rates have become unhooked from the 0 line and launched towards long rates. The curve has inverted again and there are no signs of slowing on the short end.
TVC:US01Y
by Seth-Goldberg
The Fed, The Economy, The Bitcoin.Opinion: There are 3 leading macro indicators that are worth keeping an eye on, for a possible macro cross-market reversal: 1. CPI (Once the numbers plateau the Federal reserve will have data to back pro-market decisions once more.) 2. Federal Reserve Hike probability tool ( CME probability tool for future hikes. Target is dynamic.) 3. QT due dates (September 2022 QT will reach its peak level of 95bn/m) I am of the opinion that our nearest macro reversal and bottom calling possibility, will hoover around September 2022. It will either be a temporary or long-term. This is contingent on the CPI plateauing by then and entering stabilization territory as-well as maintaining the current QT schedule. Notes on how I personally use my charts/NFA: Each level L1-L3 and TP1-TP3 has a deployment percentage. The idea is to flag these levels so I can buy 11% at L1 , 28% at L2 and if L3 deploy 61% of assigned dry powder. The same in reverse goes for TP. TP1: 61%, TP2:28% and TP3:11%. If chart pivots between TP's and L's these percentages are still respected. I like to use the trading range to accumulate by using this tactic. Just my personal way of using this. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. This is not intended or made to constitute any financial advice. FED Macro Situation Consideration: All TP's are drawn within the context of a return to FED neutral policy. I do not expect these levels to be reached before tightening is over. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE I am not a financial advisor. The Content in this TradingView Idea is for informational purposes only, you should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this idea constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. All Content on this idea post is information of a general nature and does not address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. Nothing in the idea/post constitutes professional and/or financial advice, nor does any information on the idea/post constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters discussed or the law relating thereto. You alone assume the sole responsibility of evaluating the merits and risks associated with the use of any information or other Content on the idea/post before making any decisions based on such information.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheBitcoinGeneration
2
Alibaba set to break long down trendFor various reasons, the Chinese tech giant Alibaba has been in a downtrend since October 2020. The company has had many headwinds, most of them related to the regulatory environment in China. Most of those issues now seem to be resolving, and I think BABA will be one of the better performers in the coming year. The China Credit Impulse A major leading indicator for China stocks is Bloomberg's "China Credit Impulse" index. As the following chart from MacroMicro shows, the credit impulse's last peak more or less coincided with the last peak in Alibaba in October 2020: As you can also see from the chart, the credit impulse now seems to have bottomed and is improving, a bullish sign for China stocks and for Alibaba in particular. Whereas the US and most other developed nations have been raising interest rates, China is actually in a rate-cutting cycle. Key policy rates in China have only been cut by about 15 basis points, so I don't want to make it sound like they're cutting rates drastically, but they're certainly not raising them, and there's no sign yet that they intend to do so. That makes China potentially a safe haven from rising rates in the US and other developed markets. countryeconomy.com US Delisting Risk For the last couple years, the US has been making noise about delisting China ADRs (the depository shares that China companies use to trade on US exchanges. The SEC has been demanding that Chinese companies comply with US accounting regulations, and the Chinese government has been making it impossible for these companies to do so. At the same time, China enacted a crackdown on big tech companies. The crackdown included steep penalties imposed on Alibaba, including a $2.8 billion fine for monopolistic behavior. The Chinese government also disappeared Alibaba's founder, Jack Ma, for three months. This is "the big one" for Alibaba, but the problem recently seems to be headed toward a resolution. Jack Ma eventually reappeared in Hong Kong and has dutifully been doing as he's told, including restructuring Ant Group and selling off media companies to address the Chinese government's monopoly concerns. Last week, the Chinese government signaled through state media that the tech crackdown should be over soon, and that the Chinese regulatory commission will support companies in complying with US accounting requirements so that ADRs can remain listed in the US: www.cnbc.com While this isn't yet a done deal, it looks really promising and could lead to a large rally in China stocks if and when it gets across the finish line. Zero Tolerance Covid Policy China has had a policy of zero tolerance for Covid, which means the whole country goes into lockdown every time a Covid outbreak happens. This one is not as big a deal for Alibaba, because it's an ecommerce company and thus potentially a beneficiary from people staying home. But I suspect that if China ended this zero tolerance policy, the entire China stock market would rally, including Alibaba. There have, indeed, been rumors that China may end the policy, as reported by the LA Times: www.latimes.com China has a pretty high vaccination rate overall, but they've used the somewhat less effective Sinovac vaccine, and the elderly population surprisingly has been less willing to get vaccinated than younger people, so death rates in the current outbreak have been pretty high. This may make it difficult to end the zero tolerance policy, but they have to end it sometime, so we'll see. Alibaba Valuation and Buybacks Alibaba's got something like an 8% free cash flow yield, which makes it a pretty incredible value for a big tech stock. EV/EBITDA is about 10x, which is mid-range for China's consumer discretionary sector and way below US tech firms of comparable size. The valuation makes BABA hard to resist. They could flush half their capital down the toilet and still be a better value than a lot of US tech. And the signs are that they plan to deploy their capital well rather than poorly. Yesterday Alibaba announced that it will increase its buyback program from $15 billion to $25 billion, which means it will opportunistically take advantage of low share prices to efficiently return capital to shareholders. That's called good capital allocation, and it's one of the things I look for in an investment. It's a really good sign for Alibaba here. Technicals As you can see from the chart, Alibaba has been in a long downtrend. It looks ready to attempt a breakout from that downtrend, however. I'm adding on any pullback to the 112-116 range and looking for a test of that downtrend line probably within a couple weeks.
NYSE:BABALong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
31
Economy: New home prices, Mortgage rates, delinquency rates, DowSubPrime mortgages caused the last recession (07-08 financial crisis). Much of it was a self-feeding cause and effect somewhat led by a 5 year rapidly increasing cost of Housing (especially new homes). 45% rate of change over 5 years; 227k up to 329k. Interest rates at the time were considered fair, and decreased from 7.25% to 6.25% during the 5 year run up. Mortgage delinquency rates were stable between 2-3% and began to trend higher just as housing costs were peaking. (delinquency rate data lags 6+ months). As Housing peaked and delinquencies climbed, Wall street took noticed and began to fall. This is when the snowballing effect picked up. Stocks crater, corporate layoffs ensued and that fueled more delinquencies and falling housing prices. It took 5 years for homes and Wall street to fully recover to their previous highs. Below charts from 2013 to present: An impressive 5 year 55% increase in New Home prices, mostly in just the past 2years. Until recent years,New home prices had slow growth with interest rates between 4-5%. As soon as the Fed’s printed more money and interest rates fell to 3%, New Home prices skyrocketed in historic fashion. Now with interest rates above 5% and some above 6%, I would expect home sales to drop and prices to come down. Delinquency rate has been hovering around 2%, but this data is delayed 6 months. I also assume we will see this increase some. The main question is, will there be a similar action/reaction moving forward with Wall street and other financial markets?
FRED:ASPNHSUS
by mtb1980
2
✔️ Sell the Rumors- Buy the News 👨‍🏫✔️✔️✔️So finally the rumors of an increased rate hike was the time to go short (sell) and the actual results was the news to buy... Usually we say 'Buy the Rumors- Sell the News' but this time it was the other way around. ⚠️🇺🇸🍿👀 Below i will inform you about the FEDS press conference, especially the best ones. - Real GDP growth accelerated this quarter ✔️ good news - participants lowered their economic activity forecasts with an average real GDP growth forecast below 2% to 2,4 ✔️ ok - we will continue to significantly reduce the balance sheet and reiterate that a rate hike at the meetings is appropriate ✔️ ok - inflation surprised (lol) and we will change forecasts ✔️ normal, expected - raising by 75 is our flexible and responsive approach to data (inflation) ✔️ ok , priced in? - the economy is very strong and well positioned to implement tighter monetary policy ✔️ Great to hear Question: What is the prognosis? Everything depends on the data. ✔️ told you employment data is Key - we are quickly raising rates to a normal level, 50-75 are discussed in July ✔️ ok - a rate of 3%-3.5% is suitable for reducing inflation ✔️✔️✔️ GREAT! CME prognosis was for 4-5% - we want to see a serious decline in monthly inflation figures ✔️ good luck, make friends with Putin - the goal is to bring inflation down to 2% and to keep the labor market strong ✔️ bla bla..will take time you need to control energy prices so..overall good things were said. Especially that rates will not be over 3,5%. great news really BTC TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: Professor expects 24400.. we will see what happens then. For now I am bullish One Love
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
12
NASDAQ- Hikes Shmikes Nasdq should RiseI see support. going Long. idea would be invalidated under 11300. News: www.investing.com Fed Raises Rates by 0.75% as Rampant Inflation Forces Biggest Hike Since 1994 The Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday with a larger than expected 0.75% rate increase as persistently high inflation compelled the central bank to deliver its biggest hike at a single meeting since 1994. The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% from 0.75% to 1% previously. That was more hawkish than economists’ expectations for a 0.5% rate hike. In the weeks leading up to the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said he wasn't “actively considering” a 0.75% rate increase and signaled that a 0.5% hike would be appropriate at the June and July meetings. But several signs showing above-trend inflation could stick around for longer than feared forced the central bank to step up the pace of monetary policy tightening to prevent falling further behind in the battle against inflation. The steeper than expected rate hike pushes the Fed closer to reaching the neutral rate – a rate that neither improves the economy nor slows it down. The Fed had previously signaled that it was eager to move “expeditiously” to a restrictive stance, above the neutral rate, to bring down demand and cool inflation. Restoring supply and demand in the labor market is key to the central bank’s plans. A tight labor market in which there are about two jobs for every unemployed American – threatens to fuel a wage spiral that could push inflation beyond the Fed’s reach. Some on Wall Street have suggested that job gains would have to reverse before the Fed considers taking a step back. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR *dyor
ULong
by FX_Professor
1