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AUD/USD Outlook (5 April 2022)Overall, AUD/USD have been trending upwards. Following the RBA rate decision and statement, the AUD/USD rose significantly. The Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision to be released on Tuesday (5th April), indicated: - Unemployment rate to fall to below 4 per cent this year and to remain below 4 per cent next year. - Inflation has increased in Australia, but it remains lower than in many other countries; in underlying terms, inflation is 2.6 per cent and in headline terms it is 3.5 per cent. -The Board has wanted to see actual evidence that inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range before it increases interest rates. These signalled for earlier rate increases possibly in May (previously expected towards the end of the year) Following the trend, look for buying opportunities of AUD/USD if price continues to break above the resistance zone of 0.76000. Next resistance zone is at 0.78000.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
Euro Zone inflation at record highs!This is a big issue for the ECB, and they're very much between a rock and a hard place. For years the bank has kept policy extremely easy, and the economy has largely become used to this. However, they are now facing an inflation backdrop that ironically, they probably could only dream of 10 years ago (OK maybe not as high as it currently is, but you get the point). So what do they do from here? Just now, ECB's Philip Lane said, 'today's inflation number is very high.' Clearly then, there is a hawkish pivot occurring in the ECB. And we can see that the market has been pricing *some* hawkishness since the start of the year, if we look at EURIBOR futures... EUREX:FEU31! And the current market implied data suggests that the ECB are set to embark on a hiking cycle. In picture 1, we can see the Euro Area 1wk refi rate, which suggests that by September, at least a 25bp hike is priced in... Well, that is simply way too late, so think the odds will have been frontloaded way more now. In chart 2, we can see the overall policy path, which suggests that the ECB will reach a rate of 1.00% by 2024. And in chart 3, we can see how likely behind the curve the ECB is, especially with today's inflation prints... There's likely a trade in here then. If the market is expecting rate hikes further out, but they actually happen sooner, it's likely that European risk assets will be hit, specifically credit and their corresponding spreads. This would have a knock on effect to equities. Higher refinancing rates mean tighter margins. So pay attention to the ECB going forward, since they have the greatest relative policy pivot from historical out of all central banks!
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by FinkPro
16
Mortgage Rates Explode Higher at Second Fastest Rate in HistoryThe monthly chart for US 30-year mortgage rates is exploding higher at a rate not seen since the 1970s. This chart shows that monthly rates are following the 3rd standard deviation higher, which is an extremely rare rate of increase. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is shown at the bottom of this chart. The CCI is a momentum oscillator used in technical analysis primarily to identify overbought and oversold levels by measuring an instrument's variations away from its statistical mean. It is currently at the second highest level ever (on the monthly chart), second only to the 1973 Oil Crisis. That crisis caused a bear market between January 1973 and December 1974 that affected all the major stock markets in the world. It was one of the worst stock market downturns since the Great Depression. The stock market lost 45% of its value during this time. How confident are you that the Federal Reserve will be successful at engineering a soft landing? How do you define a 'soft landing'?
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by SpyMasterTrades
1
TLT BreakThe iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) tracks an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities greater than twenty years. The price of TLT goes down as interest on 20+ year U.S. treasuries goes up. High inflation is driving interest rates ever higher . If inflation does not slow soon, a decades-long trend could end, as this chart is warning. The monthly exponential moving average (EMA) ribbons have experienced their worse violation in the fund's 20 year history. Typically the monthly EMA ribbons act as very strong long term support. The lower 55 month EMA band can act as a low risk to reward long entry. The price at which the monthly candle closes is determinative. Fortunately, there is roughly an 80% chance that the 20-year bull trend in the price of TLT will hold in March 2022. (This probability comes from the standard deviation from the monthly mean). So for now, at least, the trend is likely to continue. However, the chart suggests that the decades-long trend is dangerously close to breaking.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SpyMasterTrades
4
JICPT| US10Y entered new range above 2%Hello everyone. Finally Fed hiked the interest rate for the first time since 2018 by 25bps to combat the surging inflation issue. Before the FOMC meeting, forks have already expected 25bps hike against the backdrop of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the weekly chart, it looks firmly conquered the 2% trouble level and entered a range with upper boundary of 2.63%. On the daily chart, I would expect it to retest the 2% zone. US10Y is the cost of fund for risk-free asset. The rising will definitely weigh on the stock market, particularly tech stocks. However, market may shrug off if earning reports beat expectation, suggesting faster growth. What do you think? Will the rising yield bother you?
TVC:US10YLong
by JICPT
1
Is the US Federal Reserve hiking 25 basis points tomorrow?The US Federal Reserve kicked off its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday, with the markets widely anticipating a 25 basis-point hike in what would be the first interest rate increase since 2018. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had earlier raised the prospect of a 25bp hike, telling a House financial services committee hearing two weeks ago that he is "inclined to propose and support” the increase as inflation has sat above 2% and as the United States’ labor market continued to recover. High inflation underscores need for tightening With the US consumer inflation soaring to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February, a rate hike this week is highly anticipated, although uncertainty lies in how much the Fed will have to tighten to tame inflation. Markets are also pricing in up to six or seven hikes this year, one for each of the upcoming FOMC meetings. Higher inflation expectations among US consumers, according to surveys by the New York Fed and Cleveland Fed, also ramp up the likelihood of a more hawkish Fed. 50bp hike also on the table Although many market watchers anticipate a 25bp hike when the Fed caps off its meeting on Thursday, some economists say a 50bp is also likely. Last month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard called for a full percentage-point hike by July 1. ING Bank’s Chief International Economist James Knightley in a note last week said it wouldn’t be surprising “to see maybe two FOMC members vote for 50bp.” Knightley and other economists from the Dutch bank most recently said markets are back to pricing 160bp hikes in six meetings in total for 2022, although the Fed may have five rate hikes planned for the year. Russia-Ukraine war places Fed in a precarious spot However, the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has reached its third week, puts the Fed on alert due to expectations that the war could worsen inflation and result in a potential global economic recession that could derail the United States’ recovery momentum. Still, the Fed appeared to be undeterred by the crisis, with Powell saying in a recent speech to Congress that the near-term effects of the war and Western sanctions on Russia remain highly uncertain. "Making appropriate monetary policy in this environment requires a recognition that the economy evolves in unexpected ways. We will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook,” Powell said. Squeezing household income A rate hike in the US — the first since the COVID-19 pandemic emerged — could further squeeze household income at a time when gas prices hover around record highs. Gasoline prices in the US surged to an all-time high of $4.33 on Friday, before retreating over the weekend, according to data from the American Automobile Association. Higher interest rates will raise borrowing costs in banks, lifting variable rates on credit card debt and affecting interests on auto loans and mortgages. This could further weigh on consumer’s spending habits.
by BlackBull_Markets
Can technical analysis infer the result of Fed Tightening?This chart uses a simple downtrend in order to predict the terminal fed funds rate, which I believe will be 150-175 basis points by March 2023. As we can see, the previous fed funds rate hikes under the current downtrend have resulted in periods of lower GDP growth as well as yield-curve inversions and very regularly precede lows in total US jobless claims (the two criteria for a slowdown to be considered a recession are two consecutive quarters of lower GDP growth as well as a trough in unemployment). Historically, sharp increases in oil prices have been consistent indicators of economic slowdowns and very rarely move to the upside with a significant degree of magnitude without preceding a recession or at least a period of stock-market volatility.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by citrinityx
$OPEN - Falling Through the Trap DoorA good trading friend of mine asked for a fresh set of eyes on $OPEN. I figured I would share here. I don't like the impersonal style of this company. When people sell a home- they want a personal relationship with their realtor. Anyone with their chops would tell you it's best to expose the house to the market and let a bidding war take place. This model is smart, but I would never suggest friends or family use Opendoor. Considering higher rates coming and dropping home sale numbers, look for this name to continue to fall further after a failed breakout and rejection. Especially after missing earnings recently. More information about $OPEN from their website: "Opendoor is a leading digital platform for residential real estate. In 2014, we set out to reinvent life’s most important transaction with a new, radically simple way to buy and sell your home. We have rebuilt the entire consumer real estate experience and have made buying and selling possible on a mobile device. We’ve served tens of thousands of customers who have come to Opendoor to make their moves easier. Whether it’s getting married, starting a family, taking a new job or simply making a life change, we help people get to their next chapter in one simple, seamless transaction. Our mission is to empower everyone with the freedom to move. Opendoor currently operates in a growing number of cities and neighborhoods across the country. A full view of the markets we serve can be found here. Headquartered in San Francisco, we are a team of problem solvers, innovators, and operators building the largest, most trusted platform for residential real estate."
NASDAQ:OPENShort
by jaykenneyTRT
CADJPY Sell IdeaCADJPY has been in a solid uptrend for some time now however the price has been unable to past the recent high of 91.00. The RSI levels on the 30m and 1hr time frame are in very oversold regions which indicates that price could fall from here. On the 2hr time frame, there is some selling pressure appearing on the recent candle which also adds to our short bias. The target of this trade is located near the 90.100 area and our stop-loss is just above the 90.840 level.
Short
by Orion-Markets
AUDCAD - Our Forex Trade TodayCAD could be on the up rise for 2 main reasons: 1. Oil prices are sky-rocketing and the Canadian dollar is co-rellated to Oil. Oil up, CAD also Up 2. Rate Hike is inbound. The Bank of Canada’s First Rate Hike Since 2018 Expected This Week. The Bank of Canada is widely expected to increase its overnight target rate on Wednesday morning. Despite the market uncertainty unleashed by the current geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, the Bank’s hands appear to be tied given the headline inflation in January soared to a 30-year high of 5.1%. The target rate, upon which prime rate and variable-rate mortgages are priced, has been at 0.25% since March 2020, when the Bank cut rates at an emergency meeting at the start of the pandemic. Here’s a look at what some economists and analysts are saying in the lead-up to one of the most highly anticipated Bank of Canada meetings in years. So, we are Long on Canadian dollar for valid, Fundamental Reasons but why AUD on the other side of the pair and not EUR(that was our second option) on Turkish Lira or Russian ruble for example? The answer is in the chart. Price is offering us a nice technical entry level and we are taking it. One Love, the FXPROFESSOR
Short
by FX_Professor
2
US10Y in-depth analysis - Why I think we will see Gold above 2k In this video I am going to show you why I think that we will have a major decreas e in bonds price this year. This is due to the fact that we are currently trading in a wedge shape , or a so-called Elliot Wave Diagonal which is characterized by a 5-Waves-Pattern , of which every inner wave is shorter than the first impulsive wave. Fundamentally spoken, I do assume that rate hiking might already priced in the current Dollar and Bond prices. Therefore FED rate hike announcement might be the catalyst for several sell-off waves. If you liked this analysis, please leave a like a comment and a subscription. Thanks. RT
TVC:US10YShort
0
by RT_Trading_
2
10 Year Rate: Price keeps moving up!Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008 ranges (LONG-TERM). The measured move is noted. 4) There was a Bull Flag Pattern forming on the charts within the falling channel pattern, which helped the price move higher. The measured move for the SHORT-TERM is noted. 5) I discussed this breakout in the first week of December 2021 when the price was still at around 1.40ish. PAY ATTENTION! What are your opinions on this? If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
TVC:TNX
by MillionaireEconomics
3
$DXY needs to hodl the line 👁‍🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management* FOMC meeting next week, February 16, 2022. Here are our expectations for $DXY. !! This chart analysis is for reference purposes only !! If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
TVC:DXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
Fed funds futures pricing in 5 rate hikes in 2022?Economists are forecasting anything from 3 to 7 hikes in 2022 while the Fed funds futures market appear to be pricing in at least 5 rate hikes in 2022, starting with the first, a 25bp hike, at the March FOMC meeting. The Fed's current target range is 0 to 0.25%. March futures (ZQH2022) imply a rate of 0.23 suggesting that the lower target rate will be raised from 0 to 0.25. Assuming the the Fed sticks with a 25bp increment, the futures currently are pricing in at least 5 hikes as we see May futures (ZQK2022) implying a rate of 0.565, July (ZQN2022) implying 0.79, October (ZQV2022) with 1.06 & Dec (ZQZ2022) with 1.235.
CBOT:ZQG2022
by pete9564
Markets price in five Fed rate hikes in 2022, cut by 2025Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer view has softened, however. Fed funds futures imply that the push to price in five 25bps rate hikes for 2022 has likewise seen the 2023 outlook soften, from three such increases to two. A single rise seems to have drifted out to 2024, implying adjustment to a more gradual path after fireworks this year. Strikingly, a cut is now priced in for 2025.
by IlyaSpivak