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GOLD bulish target 1550 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the target range for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. As in the previous decision, Esther George and Eric Rosengren dissented in favor of leaving the rate unchanged. In line with the September statement, today’s release characterized the labor market as strong and “that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate.” However, it also noted that business investment and exports “remain weak.” The statement once again pointed to global developments as well as muted inflation pressures as reasons for cutting rates. However, it removed from the statement the proviso that it will “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, “noting simply that “it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information…as it assess the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.” Analysis GOLD H1 has reversal pattern, bulish englufing gold candle appeared to confirm the uptrend. Today's buying strategy buy limit GOLD 1491.68 SL 1489 TP 1506 Signal short : GOLD buy 1494 TP 1501 SL 1492
TVC:GOLD
by MCHTRADING
1
GOLD 1 live 2 die, decide FOMC interest rate .In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke introduced a number of unconventional policies, including Quantitative Easing, one of the most controversial programs in the history of central banking…but the more lasting and undeniably effective policy has been ushering in the era of “communication-as-a-policy-tool.” Over the past decade, there have been 83 FOMC meetings, with the interest rate decisions and market-implied pricing playing out in the following way: In 72 meetings, the market was anticipating no interest rate change, and the Fed left rates unchanged. In 9 meetings, the market was expecting a 25bps hike and the Fed delivered a 25bps hike. In 2 meetings (July and September), the market was expecting a 25bps cut and the Fed delivered a 25bps cut. In other words, the Fed hasn’t gone against the market’s pre-meeting “conventional wisdom” even once in the past decade. With traders pricing in a 96% chance of a 25bps rate cut tomorrow according to the CME’s FedWatch tool, the FOMC will almost certainly cut interest rates 25bps and run the streak to 84 consecutive meetings. traders will key in on the committee’s characterization of international trade in the wake of progress between the US and China on trade, as well as any comments about the recently-slowing growth in job creation. In addition, the central bank’s decision last month featured three dissents (Bullard in favor of a 50bps cut, and George/Rosengren in favor of leaving rates steady); any further “dissension in the ranks” would introduce an element of uncertainty to the future outlook for policy. Analysis GOLD H4 is moving in a triangle, the amplitude is quite wide and has not broken through the upper and lower border. However, with the formation of lower peaks on the H4 time frame, yesterday candle closed below the strong resistance zone, h1 h4. All are present for the upcoming GOLD price drop. H1 appears the supply zone in the discount channel. However there is strong news today. GOLD sell 1496-1497 SL 1500 TP 1480 Buy GOLD around 1474-1476 SL 1472 TP 1490 Trade Safe
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MCHTRADING
5
IWM short setup in the worksA break below 156-ish is bearish in my opinion, and increases the likelihood that IWM will retest the bottom of its descending channel. In addition to that, the RSI is showing overbought conditions. If it breaks below the 156-ish level, I will short it via puts and look for a risk/reward somewhere in that area I noted. Fundamentally, it all hinges on the Fed meeting later this afternoon. I still believe a meager 25 BP rate cut will send the market hopesters to their "safe places," while they pout. Therefore, sending the markets lower while they sulk in their own pity. Don't be a hopester ... use solid analysis. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND BE RATIONAL ABOUT IT!! Yes, I know the markets are irrational at times. However, you can still give yourself an edge that the hopesters don't have by analyzing instead of guessing (gambling).
AMEX:IWMShort
by Bankuur
2
$US10Y $US03MY $SPY $SPX $DIA $QQQ Inversion ContinuesAs investors continue to feel nervous about the health of the global economy, the $US10Y-$US03MY curve continues to invert, with the spread plunging below its Monthly Support Level of -0.457 (blue) to reach -0.502, a level that has not been seen since March 2007. Investors should continue to remain cautious when it comes to their asset allocation, as dark clouds continue to gather over the global economy and financial markets.
TVC:US10Y
by EconomicsGlobal
An important movement on Eur/UsdThe FOCM will begin Wednesday evening to make the market and investors understand the next moves for the short and medium term and the ECB will follow the next day. It is very likely that the euro will come out even more devalued at the end of these two days. As the European Central Bank will almost certainly show a weak economic and political scenario in the eurozone. Talking about new money injections and further postponements of a rate hike; while the FED should ensure another rate cut within the year, but then continue with its restrictive economic policy. Because an important movement on Eur/Usd we open another long position from here to close by Wednesday evening to then close all the bullish positions and reposition ourselves short. The target is the 1.119 resistance.
Long
by BFCMInvest
US 10 year yield forecast. Heading to 0?This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment lines with a biased towards heading to 1.32. Two possibilities. 1) Yield punches right through 1.32% and set set new lows. 2) More likely in my view: "China/Trade" news comes along just in time to see yields reach or even briefly penetrate 1.32%, forming a triple bottom reversal, before reversing and heading back up towards 1.73% From here, yields could see a rejection from 1.32% and begin heading back towards 1.734%. RSI is oversold, also suggesting a reversal could come soon. However, said reversal will be fleeting. Sometime by or before reaching 1.734% I would expect yields to run out of steam and resume their decline before testing 1.32% and ultimately breaking lower. There is no such this as a quadruple bottom/top so in this scenario, the yield will crash below 1.32% and 0% becomes a very real possibility in the next 12 months. How does this tie into mortgage rates? The 10 year is a good general barometer for interest rates but Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), while improving (rates dropping) the rate of improvement has been slower than what we would expect given the halving of treasury yield in just 9 short months.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward
EURO LONG NOW OR NEVERLooking at the monthly EUR/USD chart the confluences are more so evident. The Stochastic Oscillator showing divergence of the lows. Price currently sitting just below the 61.8% Fib retracement, You can see the ascending channel beginning to form with our 1.3900 handle target being confluent with channel resistance and the D2 Fibonacci extension -61.8% respectively. I want a monthly close on Wednesday after the rate decision above the 6 month EMA and above the 1.1300 handle to confirm the start of the next leg up. This will also couple with a EURO Long summer rally. X MARKS THE SPOT
Long
by zenithmarkets
Main Eur/Usd Analysis The price touched the support area set at 1.112 with a post-conference Draghi spike. Causing the stop loss closing on our trade. After it return immediately to the closing level of yesterday's session . Technically, this pair is in a stalemate taking the last six months as a time reference. In fact, the trend has no longer taken a specific direction, continuing to move between the support at 1,112 and the resistance at 1,144. If a time frame of a year and a half is taken into consideration the direction of EURUSD tends to fall. And now we do not see changes of scenery. For the next year and a half we expect the main trend to be maintained and that as final target the area 1.08/1.06 can be reached. This with minor cycles which could also lead to significant bounces. A new cycle should start with the next FED meeting at the end of July. Despite the spike a few hours ago that caused a false break in the support area, we expect a drop in the US currency for the rest of the summer. The objective is the upward break in the resistance zone at 1,144. The maximum extension of this first mini-cycle could be around 1,158. This level is identified by the EMA200 weekly which acts as a dynamic resistance of extreme importance for the short term. Fundamental Analysis At a fundamental level, the scenario that is taking shape is the following. Draghi stated that expectations on future rates are not the best. In fact, it expects that rates could remain unchanged (or even cut) for at least another year. In addition we could see a second edition of quantitative easing. The government bond purchase program, is being studied in Frankfurt. These statements, once implemented, will negatively weigh for the Euro, which will devalue against the other majors. So for the next year and a half, as we said, we expect a continuation of the main trend on this pair. On the other hand, however, on the Fed side, the devaluation of its currency should, make EURUSD carry out this bullish mini-cycle. The market and investors expect at least two cuts of a quarter of a point by the end of the year. To summarize We expect a climb in the very short/short term. Eur/Usd is ready for the bounce and we recommend repositioning long with the final target of the 1,158 (intermediate targets 1,132; 1,144). Stop at 1.103
Long
by BFCMInvest
GOLD: LONG TERM:BULLISH CONE-{SHORT TERM_WAVE 5->ABC CORRECTION}This is just a short update (1 minute read) Gold has broken out of the ascending triangle due to the FED's recent dovishness . However, after July how likely would it be for the market to have new expectations ex. rates below 2% ? How long it would it take to get there? Hence, it seems that GOLD is projecting a Bullish CONE in the Long-Term . In the Short term however, it might be reasonable to expect an ABC contraction at the strong resistance levels around 1475-1485 $. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up or follow is greatly appreciated ! -Step_Ahead_ofthemarket- Check my TA recent episodes on the US Sectors : EPISODE 7 : US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY( XLY ) : EPISODE 6 : US MATERIALS (XLB) : Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references- contact me.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
AUDUSD MACROeco + govt bonds. read to understand the chartAiming to support employment growth and to provide economic support RBA cut its cash rate by 25 bps to a low of 1% at the july meeting. The Australian economy grew below trend at 1.8% this was followed by low consumption and income growth. while increased investments in infrastructure is providing a pick up in activity in the resources sector. a pickup in growth in household disposable income is expected to remove the uncertainty involves outlook for low consumption. employment growth is continuing strong while wages growth remains low. mortgage rates are at record lows and the housing market is stabilising. big surplus in trade, while higher petro prices the last couple of month could have supported the growth rate for the H1 of the year. with stabilising housing market, and further rate cuts that will support the economic conditions " credit markets, employment, consumption and so on..", i expect upside moves for the aussie, while slower growth for the US. AU10Y yield have been moving down, which means an increase in buying of government bonds, and therefore increased demand for aussie dollars. Long at spot, for the rest of the year, and looking for hedging opportunity at 1:1
Long
by Fx-AlphaStrats
$IEF Bond Rally FadingDespite the market chatter of rate cuts by the Fed at the end of July, it seems that one area of the market that is not paying much attention are US 10-Year Treasuries ($IEF as a proxy). After posting an "Evening Star" pattern on July 3rd, US Treasuries have been selling off since. As can be seen in the attached chart, the RSI has been showing negative divergence in relation to recent price rises, indicating that investor sentiment is fading, despite prices marching to record highs. Furthermore, the price is fighting hard to stay within the FR100 at $110.40, indicating that it could fall out of this area any day now. Going forward, it appears that the rally in US 10-Year Treasuries is fading, and caution investors to take heed in this space
NASDAQ:IEFShort
by EconomicsGlobal
Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ?Is Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball ? Yes it is. The price returned above the EMA 200 daily. This only after a year and a month that continued to travel under it. At this time, however, the very short/short term scenario seems to have changed. With the break and the closure above the daily EMA200, it is very likely that this uptrend continues up to (at least) 50% of the Fibonacci retracement. Around 1.144,  this area has been tested but it will be necessary to wait for the retest to proceed. In fact, an upward breach in this point will also make investors give up their short positions in favor of long ones. Those will be maintained until the next resistance zone set at around 1.16 (where the EMA200 weekly periods passes). A rejection will make investors increase the short positions of their portfolios. For now the fundamental scenario is quite uncertain: on one hand there is the ECB which will continue to devalue the euro as the Eurozone is not yet ready increase the interest rate, but it needs further money injection to stabilize. On the other hand, the Fed also seems to have revised its monetary policy. By now the rate cut by a quarter of a percentage point is practically certain in July. In fact the market is already discounting it with this "collapse" of the euro. According to some analysts this have raised the probability that in 2019 there may be another 2 rates change, one in September and one at the end of the year. This has strongly destabilized the American currency, which in the last few weeks has lost ground against all the other majors. Trading ideas To conclude Eur/Usd like a bouncing ball and for this reason we recommend opening a long position with a target of 1.144. A trade that partially compensates the other open days ago in the opposite direction. For now, we keep the short trade in the portfolio and add a very short period trade to the target of 1,144.
by BFCMInvest
Rates Down For a Few More Months...Then Up, Up and AwayThis leading diagonal ended as called earlier appears to be making an ABC correction that should end when C = A at 1.75 Then, the longer term upward correction should continue in a third wave, which I think will be a C wave ending this sub-minuet level correction of the larger minute correction of the larger trend. C should be equal to A as measured from the end of the ongoing sub-minuet ABC correction. Long 10 year for a couple months, then short 10 year (as rates rise and price falls) for the next year or so... Good luck!
TVC:TNXShort
by broughro
Short August Fed Fund FuturesAugust Fed Fund Futures are currently pricing a 27% chance that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points or 0.5% at the end of July. ( The July 31st meeting to be exact). Historically the Fed has only cut interest rates by 0.5% twice before in its entire history. Once in 1999 (we know what was happening then) and once in 2007 (we know what was happening then). Today, we don't see the same froth and insanity we did in those two bubbles in credit or otherwise. If the Fed did cut by 0.5% in July then I would also sell equities like crazy because it would mean the Fed sees something really bad compared to what markets see. There is NOT a Fed meeting in August. The strategy is to sell the August Fed fund futures down to 97.78 which is where the market is simply pricing in ONE cut of 0.25% for July, with a stop at 98 for the aggressive traders, but lower for the less aggressive. Fed futures provide huge margin, so you can make almost 3x your required overnight margin maintenance even if the fed just cuts once. IF THE FED DOESN'T CUT, then you can make even more.
CBOT:ZQQ2019Short
by StephenStull
US 10 YR - Lower yields to come in 2019 and beyondLooks like loan officers will be selling 2 and 3 percent fixed mortgages before long. ;) This is an update to my previous idea: If you're a fan of Fibonacci, then you're already well aware of the significance of the 1.618 and .618 lines. If you're not. Here's a super simple version. .618 retrace is the most likely level to see a "bounce" if the overall trend is higher. However, If .618 fails to hold, it's bearish and the next level of support is .786 followed by 1.0 representing a full retrace with new lower lows possible. So, if the 10 year yield is to "bounce" and start heading higher, it basically has to do it here and now... But that's probably not going to happen this time. Globally, central banks of the world are already loosening. China and Europe leading the way. The US economy is clearly showing signs of slowing. Tariffs, combined with record rain have devastated the Midwest farming region. (Expect higher food prices in 2020). A rising dollar at a time where exports are desired more than ever, etc. Ultimately, i expect the 10 yr yield to test the previous low of 1.32 we saw following the passage of Brexit. And we could get there quick. Next 4-6 months or "before 2020" if that's easier.
TVC:US10YShort
by jdharward